It is true that the Philadelphia Phillies will never have a better opportunity to win a World Series than they do in 2024. The Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves might be the only truly good teams in the senior circuit, and this is a club full of players in their early to mid-30s.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has presided over some of the biggest acquisitions in MLB history during his storied career, acquiring the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, David Price, Chris Sale, Yoenis Céspedes, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner at the heights of their respective powers.
So when you combine the clear window that the Phillies are in — probably 2024 and 2025 — and Dombrowski’s history of aggressiveness, it’s natural that many believe that a major move will come in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. Also, adding fuel to the fire is that the Phillies farm system has drastically improved in recent years, with Bleacher Report even recently ranking it at the No. 10 group in the sport. So the Phillies definitely have pieces that would be of interest to sellers.
What’s less clear, though, is whether there’s a player available that would be worth making a major investment for.
With Johan Rojas recently being optioned to Triple-A and the belief from most that Brandon Marsh is a better left fielder than center fielder, Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox has been a popular name speculated upon as a fit for the Phillies.
Considering Robert is a right-handed hitter who crushed 38 home runs a year ago and has previously won a Gold Glove in center field, it’s natural to connect him to the Phillies. He’s also under team control through the 2025 season, with affordable $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027. It’s not hard to talk yourself into the best-case scenario of Robert being the missing piece for the Phillies in 2024, and the 26-year-old spending his peak years in red pinstripes.
However, Robert is hardly a sure thing. He played in 145 games in 2023, but has never topped 98 in any other season. He missed nearly two months earlier this season with a right hip flexor strain, so this will be another year where Robert comes nowhere close to being available for the full season. In the 91 at-bats Robert has this season, he’s homered seven times. He’s also hitting just .198 with an on-base percentage under .300 during that period.
There’s also the asking price, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this month that while the White Sox were willing to listen on Robert, they “would command a package greater than what the San Diego Padres gave up for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline.”
For those that don’t remember, the Padres gave up a package that included shortstop CJ Abrams, left-handed starter MacKenzie Gore and outfielders James Wood and Robert Hassell III to land Soto. That trade appears to have set the Washington Nationals up well for the future, but it’s easier to swallow when you get a sure thing like Soto. Robert is a very nice player, but he’s not in Soto’s league.
Headlining a trade for Robert with SS/3B Aidan Miller — last year’s first-round pick and the current No. 57 prospect in the sport, according to Just Baseball‘s Aram Leighton — would be risky. If Robert helps you to win a World Series, so be it. But the flip side is Robert could struggle to stay healthy with the Phillies and a package consisting of Miller and various other top-10 prospects for the Phillies could turn into cheap, controllable talent that revitalizes the White Sox.
There is a reality here, though, that if the Phillies don’t acquire Robert, he could very well end up with a team they face off with in the postseason, such as the Dodgers. That’s another thing that Dombrowski will have to weigh when considering meeting what will be an uncomfortably-high asking price.
If Robert isn’t the person worth going all in for, who is?
While the Phillies would probably benefit more from adding a right-handed bat to a lineup that already includes Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker is the type of player you would make some exceptions for. Tucker has 19 home runs, 40 RBIs and a .979 OPS. He’s also under team control through 2025. Most executives would be willing to give up a massive haul of prospects for Tucker, even if in the case of the Phillies, it would give them a very-left handed lineup and force them to keep Marsh in center field.
But the debate on Tucker will likely be a moot point. The 27-year-old outfielder is currently on the injured list with a right shin contusion. Whenever he returns, it will likely be to play for the Astros. For as many issues as the Astros have had this season, general manager Dana Brown has repeatedly insisted that the team will not sell in advance of the July 30 trade deadline. The Astros are only 5 1/2 games back of a Seattle Mariners team with a pretty poor offense in the AL West, so that checks out, at least right now.
What about making a major move for a closer like Ryan Helsley or Mason Miller? In Helsley’s case, the St. Louis Cardinals are currently in control of the second Wild Card spot in the NL and within striking distance in the NL Central, so they are unlikely to sell. Miller is only 25 and can’t become a free agent until after the 2030 season, so the asking price from the Oakland Athletics will likely be exorbitant. You can make a case some team should meet that, but the Phillies already have a strong bullpen and Dombrowski hasn’t invested major resources in the closer position since taking over the front office in December of 2020.
This isn’t meant to say that the Phillies won’t ultimately pull the trigger on a major move before July 30. Maybe the asking price on Robert will drop. Perhaps the Astros will slump and decide to sell. Maybe there’s someone we haven’t named in this article that will become available and be worth pushing the chips to the center of the table for.
But in 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired LHP CC Sabathia and the Dodgers landed left fielder Manny Ramirez, both of whom were tremendous additions for their new clubs. And both teams still lost to the eventual World Champion Phillies in the postseason, with general manager Pat Gillick making more modest additions like RHP Joe Blanton and pinch hitter Matt Stairs. Sometimes when you already have a really good team, you don’t necessarily need to win the trade deadline to put your club over the top.
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George Monzon
June 27, 2024 at 1:38 pm
Regarding “star” players who are in teams with losing records, with looming free-agency. Consider this, if you are will to take a pay cut, for a chance to win a world series, would you do it? Personal legacies are not measured by the monies one makes, but the impact that that person makes (also how many world series you have might help as well).