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Mets Gain On Santana; Don’t Worry (Yet)

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 10, 2008 07:44 PM | Comments: 14
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The Mets are inching closer to securing Johan Santana in a trade.

While you may be panicking, Phillies fan, let’s give you some peace of mind. Remember, as much as Mets fans don’t want you to think so, we are the best team in the East until someone unseats us.

I scanned Johan Santana’s numbers to find some interesting things:

Some Phillies fans are worried that Santana will murder our left-handed-heavy lineup. But I present this statistic:

  • Santana vs RHP: .220 AVG/.276 OBP/.365 SLG
    Santana vs LHP: .223 AVG/.283 OBP/.371 SLG

Looks like lefties hit Santana better than righties. Advantage: Phillies.

Some will point to Santana’s 1.93 ERA against the Phillies, but I’ll point to this:

  • Against the Phillies: 4.2 IP, 0-0, 6 BB, 102 OPS+

Against the patient Phils lineup, Santana could be in for a world of trouble. Advantage: Phillies.

Also, Santana has never pitched at Citizens Bank Park. Be prepared, Johan, it ain’t no pic-a-nic.

Finally, the Phils play the Mets six times in April, then seven times in July:

  • Santana in April: 9-7 / 4.23 ERA / 122 OPS+
    Santana in July: 15-9 / 3.67 ERA / 104 OPS+

Okay, I’m obviously fishing for poor numbers in his resume (and even these numbers aren’t that poor, and some are extremely small samples), but, here’s the honest truth: If the Mets add Santana, the division isn’t necessarily theirs. In fact, the Mets, in my opinion, have a far inferior offense to the Phillies, while the addition of Santana will probably give the Mets a slight edge in rotation.

What this means most of all, however, is the Phils must answer. They don’t need to break the bank for an Erik Bedard, but they need to find a stable rotation piece and a stable back-end bullpen piece. If they do that, the Mets’ addition of Santana won’t make the Mets the better team.

Avatar of Tim Malcolm

About Tim Malcolm

Tim Malcolm has written 1947 articles on Phillies Nation.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Matt

    If the Mets get Santana they are the immediate NL favorites in 2008. To get him, they will have to mortgage much of their farm and some of their payroll flexibility in the future. Nonetheless, Santana would immediately become the best pitcher in the National League, and I think that’s more valuable than some here would like to admit. There is no “counter” move the Phils could make, short of Bedard, to answer. It’s in their best interests to stay with their vision, challenge for the division if it presents itself, the wild card if not (they’re still probably the 2nd best NL team on paper).

    Honestly, the Mets have always made the most sense to get Santana. They have the resources, and it is in the best interests of the Twins, Yankees, and Red Sox to get him out of the American League. Most people still think it will be the Red Sox, but I’ve always thought the NYY/BOS were playing each other hoping another team would come in, and the NYM are that team.

     
  • Posts: 0 psyclone

    Are you nuts? If the Mets get Santana they will most definitely be one of the top teams in the NL. Keep in mind that the Mets dominated the NL East until the last month of the season. I still think the Mets lineup is much better than the Phills and Mets rotation is better than the Phills without Santana. If you’re happy with those stats and wouldn’t mind Santana on the Mets, I will gladly accept that and guarentee that Santana will pitch great against just about everyone.

     
  • Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm

    Avatar of Tim Malcolm

    Yes, if the Mets get Santana they will definitely be one of the top NL teams on paper in 2008. You can put them with Arizona, the Phils and the Pads. Maybe the Rox, maybe the Cubbies, Braves.

    But I just wanted to disagree with this:

    “Keep in mind that the Mets dominated the NL East until the last month of the season.”

    August 2007:
    Phillies – 16-12
    Mets – 15-13
    Braves – 13-15
    Nationals – 12-17
    Marlins – 9-19

    July 2007:
    Phillies – 15-10
    Nationals – 14-12
    Braves – 13-13
    Mets – 13-14
    Marlins – 12-14

    June 2007:
    Phillies – 15-13
    Braves – 13-15
    Mets – 12-15
    Marlins – 11-16
    Nationals – 10-16

    Mets record against Marlins before September: 8-4
    Mets record against Phillies before September: 6-9
    Mets record against Nationals before September: 8-4
    Mets record against Braves before September: 5-8
    Overall record against NL East before September: 27-25

    Mets before September – 74-60
    Phillies before September – 72-62

    I wouldn’t exactly say any of that is dominant. Can you fans stop thinking it was just September that lost it? Get a grip.

     
  • Posts: 0 Joe

    I don’t know guys I’m nervous. You can argue who had the better season last year and although I think It was the Phil’s what do we have to show for it? Zip. Johan is the best in the Business. We need to pray that that Ryan and Chase and Jimmy are ready because the Mets will be different if they get Johan. The Mets lacked a solid rotation last year. I’m apprehensive about facing a solid rotation and stacked batting order after a quiet off season in Philly.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chris.I

    Look….Let me quite honest here….The season hasn’t started yet, but….Thank God we still have a shot at the wild card!

     
  • Posts: 0 Joe

    Yeah and when we get to the Wild Card we will play the Mets who will make our 07 playoff performance look stellar.

     
  • Posts: 0 VA Steve

    IF the Mets get Santana, make no mistake, they will have to give up a ton, even including one or two current non pitcher starters. They may add pitching, but lose elsewhere. No need to panic here, but it would be nice to address a few lingering concerns.

     
  • Posts: 0 NateB

    i totally agree with steve. the mets will give up just as much as what they’ll be getting (the twins will ask for a ton of talent- and santana will ask for a lot of money). so take away some talent and money from the mets and add santana, and they’re still good for 88 wins next year. the phillies need to replace eaton and add another middle reliever, and they’re good for 95+ wins.

     
  • Posts: 0 jim from ny

    Looking at these posts here from philly fans is very refreshing and educational. I thought only Met fans were going nuts about getting (or not) Santana, getting better pitching (or not), or staying the same. Unlike most mets fans (who still have not come to grips with the last 2 weeks of last season)) I actually look forward to playing the phillies, because they are good games. If (and its a big if) we get Santana, it is a lock for us to win the division for these reasons: He will stop any slides or prolonged losing streaks, unlike last year when we had manny, moe and jack in the bullpen. Also he is a dominant lefty against a lefty lineup.

     
  • Posts: 0 PatheticPhillies

    its unbelievable that the phillies fans actually believe they are a better team than the mets. we were 7 games ahead with 2 weeks to go and the mets just flopped and handed the NL east to the phillies just to watch the phillies get swept like the bums they are

     
  • Posts: 0 Gorilla Guys

    OK, the only thing that’s pathetic around here are Mets fans who can’t get over the fact that their precious “Amazn’s” amazingly imploded last season – AND that they choose to forget that the Phils kicked their ass all season long, sweeping them more than once and HELPING their implosion.

    Get over it, Douchebag. We BEAT you.

     
  • Posts: 0 john

    ok gorilla guys. mets fan never admitted it was the worst collapse in history. we walked away with our tail between our legs. but you didnt exactly make a good appearance in the playoffs. And people said we would have to give up soooo much to get him. We gave up a poor hitting backup center fielder, humber who has a losing record in the MINORS, and two guy most of mets nation ever heard of. we kept pelphry and we kept our number one prospect. and now that you lost rowand which will most likely hurt your offense you cant argue the mets are the better team. this guy ran face first into a wall for an out and you cant give him another few million. what does a guy have to do for some love?but now we added santana, a 15 game winner at least. maine and perez had 15 wins a piece. pedro who is old and will be hurt half way through the year, ill be happy with 10 starts from him, and el duque. Also remember Delgado is on a contract year, hes going to be coming out swinging hard. The phillies are kind of screwed and so are the braves. and you can even say marlins or nationals in the same sentence as the mets. Pray that the NL west isnt insane this year, or else no playoffs for you

     
  • Posts: 0 john

    wasnt instead of was in the first sentence… otherwise that would sound pretty stupid

     
  • Posts: 0 Shamrock

    you mets fans are a joke. the Phillies lost Rowand but Gained Feliz and jenkins. Feliz alone can handle those offensive stats Rowand had. Jenkins and Werth, should be able to contribute respectively. I like the fact the Phillies are no longer the favorites and everyone is forgetting about them, it will give them something to play for and make them play harder. I can’t wait for the season to begin.

     
 
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