Stark: Phils Will Trade Howard
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, April 03, 2008 11:19 PM | Comments: 16
Posts
In his latest rumblings on ESPN.com, Jayson Stark discusses the impact of the Miguel Cabrera deal on Ryan Howard; in short, the Phillies probably won’t be able to match the Tigers.
Stark says the Cabrera situation is influencing the Howard situation — because Cabrera was the measuring stick for the Howard arbitration case — and while Cabrera and the Tigers were able to come to terms, Howard and the Phils haven’t talked yet about any money. Says Stark:
“Which means that eventually, the Phillies’ biggest decision almost certainly isn’t going to be what to pay Howard. It’s when to trade Howard.”
Stark then quotes a “longtime baseball man” who says the clock will be ticking for the Phils to move Howard.
Okay, I know and we all know this situation will only get worse with time, but we’re three games into the $10MM season. If by the All Star break Howard has knocked 28 HR and 60 RBI, we can start to panic and ponder Howard’s future. But at this very early point in 2008, we should note the slugger has to show he’s worthy of the $200MM or whatever he’ll command with a longterm deal. Maybe I’m optimistic, but I don’t necessarily think the Phils will let Howard walk away that easy. And all that aside, Howard isn’t the type of player Miguel Cabrera is — Howard is a strict home run hitter; Cabrera can do much more at the plate (as of right now). Whatever the case, it’s better for them to wait a bit longer so they know the investment they’re making will at least pay off in retrospect.
Posts: 0 Gnomicide
It’s a balancing act. Is it worth keeping him around for some absurd contract even though he’s already getting up there in age? Who knows. All I know is the Phillies have crippled teams before by having these huge contracts stick around for years. I just don’t want to see Howard out for 2 seasons with a bad back while raking in 20mil per season and the pitching staff continuing to look like it does.
But then there is the home grown factor and the fan reaction.
I’d hate to be in the Phils front office. They will be taking as much heat as Twins for Santana.
Posted: 06:40 AM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I think they know theyll get crucified if they lose him. Theyll do whatever they can to keep him, but that doesnt mean theyll offer him what he wants. Id like to think the next GM would get the kings ransom for him when he is moved, assuming his strikeout problem doesnt get worse. Anything less than a solid upper-rotation starter in their mid 20s and two or three top prospects would make you cringe a bit. Though who knows they still have plenty of time to solve this problem of theirs.
Posted: 08:28 AM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 chris.I
Let me start off by saying I love Howard..I’m a huge fan. But I’m more of a Phillies Fan than a Howard fan, bottom line. I wouldn’t be upset if we traded Howard for top notch pitching, i.e Sabathia, D-mat, etc..But the truth of the matter is I agree with Tim, The Phils won’t just let him go like Rowand.
Posted: 08:56 AM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Jeff
They have time. I like Howard so this is just speculation but I wonder If the Cardinals would see any reason to swap Pujols for Howard. I doubt it but Howard would be the hometown guy. Pujols, who is younger and evidently cheaper, is the best hitter in the game and his righthanded bat would go well behind Utley. Once again, I’m happy with Howard but I don’t see him staying in the long run.
Posted: 12:07 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Just for conversational purposes…
What is the minimum any of you would accept for Howard?
Im going to go with Frontline Starter (Sabathia, Lackey, Felix Hernandez (yeah, like theyd ever trade that guy), someone of that ilk) and two good position prospects. or maybe a solid starter and two or three top prospects.
Is this overvaluing Howard? It could be if he keeps striking out too much. But if hes “unprecedented” then his trade return should bring back serious value.
Posted: 12:17 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
To be honest, I’d be extremely surprised if we got a frontline starter for Howard. For continuity sake, look at the Miguel Cabrera deal. The Marlins got five prospects for him and Willis. I’d think we’d get three top-10 prospects, maybe a MLB-ready pitcher and another middling prospect. Four or five players in all.
And it also depends on what teams would take him. He’s almost exclusively an AL entity once he leaves. I’d put the list at the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Indians, Orioles and Rangers, considering the money he’d want.
I would think twice about the Yanks because of the A-Rod contract. The Sox are a definite possibility; I see, however, the Orioles being the top draw for Howard.
Posted: 12:31 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
And if he’s traded in the next year or two, he could stay in the NL. The Cards would be a possibility (but not for Pujols), as well as the Mets, Astros, Cubs, Giants and Padres. And to tell you the truth, I could easily see the Giants ponying up for him – he’s the guy they NEED to fix that franchise.
Posted: 12:33 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Jeff
The Phils are not good at big name deals. They have nothing left to show for trading Schilling, Rolen and Thome. Matt Smith is all that’s left for Abreu and the Phil’s will be lucky if he makes it back. There’s not much there to inspire confidence that they’ll get a good return. That’s why I’d rather get a proven player. That’s why I dream about a Pujols deal. I know it’s a stretch.
Posted: 12:39 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Theyd have to demand a lot and hold out for the best package. I could see them taking months to actually make a deal with someone for him. You cant just do what they did with schilling and get like no long term value. With the Cabrera-Willis thing, I was very very upset at that trade. Knowing theyd never trade him to the Phillies, doesnt it seem like they could have gotten a whole lot more? An mlb-ready starter would be nice though. They do need to do something to improve their farm system. The Orioles have nice propects, and Im sure theyll have even more as they continue to rebiuld. Good call on taht one. How long would you wait to do it? this winter? two years? that would seem like the time to get the most value.
Posted: 12:41 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Hed have more value in the AL because even after his career will last longer at the DH spot when he cant play first anymore. Id liek to think even the phillies gm at the time (amaro) would know that and know not to trade him within the league.
Posted: 12:47 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
The problem with the Schilling, Abreu, Thome and Rolen deals were with when the trigger was pulled: way too late. Schill and Rolen had expressed so much angst that any deal had to be done immediately. With Abreu, he had already begun declining. How sad it is that we have to say Howard Eskin was right – the time to trade Abreu was immediately after the Home Run Derby in 2005. And with Thome, well, it was probably wiser not to get him in the first place.
If they know they’re not going to pay Ryan $200MM over 6 years, they should start seeking partners in private after the All Star break. And the best time to trade would probably be next offseason.
Look at the Erik Bedard deal and what Baltimore scored in return. It was the perfect time to trade Bedard because:
- The O’s had the money to re-sign him.
- His value was tremendous coming off a great second half.
- The M’s needed that last pitching piece.
If the Phils were to come out publicly and say they were seeking partners for Howard once the offseason hit, the response would be ridiculous. More than likely you’d see 24/30 teams put their chips in. Then they’d weed out the pretenders until about 10 remained. That’s when you really get into the cream and figure out what works best.
My best trading partner, right now, has a MLB-ready 3B prospect, two top-prospect arms less than 1.5 years away and a first base prospect 2-3 years away.
Posted: 12:49 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Jeff
Well if a top notch everyday player can’t be gotten then they ought to load up with REAL prospects. There is no frontline pitcher worth Ryan Howard. They only play every fifth day. This off season might be a year too soon because the Phils are a threat for a couple years, I think you have to get as much as you can with this core group. Remember, they have him through 2010.
Posted: 12:56 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah definitely. I hate waiting too long to trade someone (see Eric Lindros, Donovan McNabb, Allen Iverson-even though the sixiers are decent now) because everyone knows theyre lame-ducks and you get that animosity built up and howard could basically become eric lindros then the leverage is gone.
Posted: 12:56 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I would made a good faith, legitimate attepmt to sign long-term this season and is itdoesnt work then he gets unloaded for a big score at the winter meetings.
Posted: 12:58 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Bill
I think the Phillies are making the cost go up every day they do not sign Howard. They need to take their lumps and get a deal done. Not only will it save them money down the road, but it will help the teams PR. So many fans are expecting the worst. Make the signing and silence the critics. It is a risk to sign him but lets face it, everyone in baseball expects Ryan to have a huge career.
http://myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum/
Posted: 08:24 PM on April 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Antonia
haha
Posted: 11:09 AM on June 22, 2009