Phillies Nation

Here we are, June 19, and the Phillies sit two games ahead of the rest of the National League East. Sounds good, right?

Well there are holes with this team, and if the Phils want to win the World Series (which should be the goal this year), they need to fill those holes. Probably the largest of the holes is in the starting rotation.

We all thought Brett Myers would be the consummate No. 2 starter, but he’s been anything but, with an ERA over 5.00. Meanwhile, Jamie Moyer has been steady as he goes, good enough for a division winner. Adam Eaton has been surprisingly more effective this season, but probably not enough to be a top-three starter for a division winner. And Kyle Kendrick, despite keeping his team in the game, has never shown to be the type of pitcher you can hand the ball to and ensure victory.

Most championship-caliber teams carry three starters capable of going the distance if needed. Last year’s Red Sox had Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matzusaka and Jon Lester. The 2005 White Sox had John Garland, Mark Buehrle and Jose Contreras. The list goes on. In short, three is the magic number.

With the Phils offense and bullpen, they can get away with two lights-out starters, but right now they have one. It’s too far into the season to think Myers will turn it around, and Kendrick, Moyer and Eaton just don’t say eight innings.

With that known, the Phils will have to look at grabbing at least one starter, and one who can take the ball and possibly pitch eight to nine innings if needed. Here are the names everyone believes is available. I assessed each possibility, and you can read them below:

Odalis Perez, WAS: At 2-5 with a 4.09 ERA, he’s not a bad option, but he’s on the DL with shoulder tendinitis. I won’t go after injured guys in this situation.
Initial verdict: Pass

Boof Bonser, MIN: Now in the bullpen in Minnesota, he’s gone 3-6 with a 6.48 ERA. He’s young, but he’s not been that good of a pitcher so far in his career.
Initial verdict: Pass

Livan Hernandez, MIN: Since the Twins are in second place, I can’t see them trading Livan yet. He hasn’t been good (5.51 ERA); I mean, why would we want a guy with Myers’ numbers?
Initial verdict: Pass

Miguel Batista, SEA: He’s 3-8 with a 6.09 ERA playing in Safeco Field (7.60 ERA there).
Initial verdict: Pass

Randy Wolf, SD: Here’s where it gets interesting. He’s 5-5 with a 4.16 ERA, but away from Petco he’s a rough 1-4 with a 5.84. Still, he knows the team and city, he’s been cajoled before by the team and might be able to pass as a No. 3 ahead of Kendrick and Moyer.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: He’d probably slide into the spot between a No. 2 and Kendrick, but the Phils would still need to get another starter. Wolf isn’t enough on his own (I could see the Phils getting Wolf and nothing else, of course).

What it would take: As Wolf is on a one-year deal, it wouldn’t take much. Probably a low-level prospect or organizational filler, with the Phils paying most of his $9M (includes incentives).

Final verdict: Definitely take a shot.

Paul Byrd, CLE: He’s 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA thus far for the Indians, at age 37. He was great down the stretch last year for Cleveland, but he doesn’t strike me as the kind of pitcher they’d need to fill a hole.
Initial verdict: Pass

Gil Meche, KC: Kansas City GM Dayton Moore said Meche is unavailable, but for giggles, we’ll consider him. He’s 4-8 with a 5.12, but last year he was pretty good at 3.67. Why so bad this year? Supposedly he’s bad against his division — against everyone else, pretty good. Still, he’s almost untouchable.
Initial verdict: Pass

Greg Maddux, SD: The real Mad Dog is at 3.31 with San Diego, and of course, he’s pitching much better at Petco than anywhere else. Like Wolf, he’s worth the flier, and he’s a one-year deal, so he wouldn’t be worth too much.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: Like Wolf, he’d be a good No. 3 option, but the Phils would need something compatible along with him.

What it would take: The Pads might want more than filler for Maddux, so be prepared to give up maybe a Josh Outman for a half-year of Maddux.

Final verdict: If he doesn’t cost too much, go hard.

Joe Blanton, OAK: Early on Blanton was rumored to go to the Phils; right now he’s 3-10 with a 4.81 ERA. He’s been a little better than that for his career, but nothing dominant. Wolf and Maddux serve as better options.
Initial verdict: Pass

Bronson Arroyo, CIN: He’s an “innings eater,” but the Phils have far too many of them. With a 5.55 ERA, he doesn’t signal filling a hole at all. He’s a bit overrated, really.
Initial verdict: Pass

Daniel Cabrera, BAL: With a 4.45 ERA, he has definitely looked better than last year, but his K numbers are down. He’s on a one-year deal and is arbitration eligible after 2008, so …
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: Like Wolf and Maddux, he’s maybe a No. 3 in this rotation, so they’d still need a bigger arm.

What it would take: More than Wolf and Maddux. Probably a low-level prospect with an Outman type. That’s worth it if the Phils take on his arbitration for 2009, which, is he really worth that hassle?

Final verdict: Not worth it, really.

Rich Harden, OAK: Having a huge year, he’s 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA. He’s signed on through 2009, though that year is a club option, so the Phils would have to pick up the option to make it work.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: He represents the first real shot at a dominant No. 2 behind Hamels.

What it would take: Knowing Billy Beane, the king’s ransom. Start with Carlos Carrasco and Adrian Cardenas. Seriously.

Final verdict: See what it would take. If Beane wants the farm, decline, but if he wants even a sliver less, go hard.

Brad Penny, LAD: The once dominant ace is struggling this year, with a 5.88 ERA and 1.599 WHIP. Is it a classic case of Myers syndrome? Maybe, but Penny has proven himself more than Myers. I’d take the risk and talk.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: Probably as a No. 3, to be safe. It could go either way.

What it would take: Probably too much, considering the Dodgers aren’t out of any race right now. We could be looking at Carrasco, Cardenas and Outman, or something of that extent.

Final verdict: He might not be worth a lot of trouble, but proceed with caution.

Derek Lowe, LAD: He’s right on his LA average with a 3.90 ERA this season. The ground ball pitcher would be nice to have at the Cit, but be warned: Away from Dodger Stadium he’s not terribly good.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: Probably as a No. 3.

What it would take: He’s in a contract year, so not as much as Penny. Still, the Phils might have to part ways with Carrasco and a lower-level prospect.

Final verdict: If he’s cheap enough, go to it.

AJ Burnett, TOR: With his 4.90 ERA, his $11M per year contract and his poor attitude, I say no sir.
Verdict: Pass

Ben Sheets, MIL: I can’t see Milwaukee putting him on the block, but let’s say he is. He’s 8-1 with a 2.74 ERA. He’s healthy. Finally. He’s signed through 2009, which is nice. He is $10M per year, which isn’t quite. But he is proven enough.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: He’s a No. 2 behind Hamels.

What it would take: Plenty. The Brewers would want Carrasco and an outfielder. Maybe Shane Victorino, but maybe Greg Golson. One more bigger-name prospect would have to go in, as well. Probably an Outman or maybe James Happ. Still, I don’t know if that’s enough.

Final verdict: If Vic is involved, it’s not worth it. Besides, it’s very slim that the Brewers would want to rid him.

Erik Bedard, SEA: The name most rumored with the Phillies. He’s good, but poor on the road this season. So far in 2008 he’s 4-4 with a 4.14 ERA. Not bad. Not great. But not bad.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: Probably as the No. 2, and maybe in the NL he’d thrive.

What it would take: He’s not a free agent until 2010, so obviously the M’s would want a treasure chest. Carlos Carrasco would be the top chip, and Victorino might be right there with him. Maybe the Phils can get away with packaging Dom Brown or Michael Taylor with Carrasco. Cardenas is possible, but the M’s do have young Jose Lopez at 2B.

Final verdict: Proceed with caution. Bedard isn’t a sure thing, but he’s better than most.

CC Sabathia, CLE: The prize of the market is Sabathia, who is 5-8 with a 4.26 ERA. Of course, he projects as better than that, and is more of a sure thing than anyone in the market.
Initial verdict: Talk

Where he’d fit: He’s a No. 2. Maybe an ace.

What it would take: Seeing as Sabathia is a free agent after 2008, it’s more about if the Phils are willing to go long-term with Sabathia. If they do, say goodbye to Pat Burrell and probably Brad Lidge. And it would be tough to hold onto Ryan Howard and Hamels. Could the Phils throw Burrell into the deal? Sure. Would he accept? Maybe not. Would the Indians? If the Phils pay the bulk of it. A package of Burrell, Carrasco and Cardenas could do it, and could possibly free up room to re-sign Lidge and Sabathia. Possibly. But do you want to give up Burrell this year? Ahhh …

Of course, this is all the test to see if the Phils can be a big-market team. If they were to go all out with Sabathia while keeping Lidge and long-terming Hamels, we’d finally see this team is ready to step up. But really, are they? Who knows.

Final verdict: See what it would cost, then, move accordingly. If they can give up mainly Carrasco and Cardenas and decide they’d re-sign Sabathia longterm, then do it.

So my final order of preference:

• CC Sabathia
• Rich Harden
• Erik Bedard
• Derek Lowe
• Greg Maddux
• Randy Wolf
• Brad Penny
• Ben Sheets
• Daniel Cabrera