Stark: Arroyo, Burnett, Sabathia On Phils’ Wish List
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, June 19, 2008 05:58 PM | Comments: 118
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Jayson Stark’s recent Rumblings and Grumblings devotes a section to the Phillies starting pitching woes and possible trade subjects.
He writes:
“With the help of a number of clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, we’ve assembled this shopping list of starting pitchers it appears they’ve at least kicked tires on:
Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo and (surprisingly) Jarrod Washburn.
Bedard just hit the market, so you can add his name any minute now. But those same clubs say the Phillies might have the hardest decisions to make of just about any team with win-the-World Series upside. . If they go for it now — and decimate their still-thin system to deal for a big-name rent-a-pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett — this might be the only year they’d be capable of contending.
To make a trade like that, they’d probably have to give up both of their two most advanced starting-pitching prospects, Carlos Carrasco and Antonio Bastardo. So if they lose Brad Lidge and their rent-a-starter to free agency, and Jamie Moyer retires, Brett Myers doesn’t rebound and Adam Eaton’s first half turns out to be a mirage, the Phillies’ pitching staff next year would essentially consist of Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, an uncertain Myers and seven question marks. “So that’s a tough call,” said one NL executive. “Do you say, ‘Go for it, and the hell with next year’? Or do you think big picture, but maybe not have enough [pitching] to win this year? It’s a scary choice to have to make.”
Let’s see, though. If the Phils don’t trade for a rent-a-pitcher and don’t re-sign Lidge they still have Hamels, Kendrick, Romero, Myers and Madson. They’d still have to fill seven spots.
If the Phils trade away Carrasco and Bastardo, then they’re losing Carrasco for 2009. Nothing says Bastardo is absolutely ready to contribute in 2009. So you’re losing one sure thing for next year’s staff, which — while it is Carrasco — isn’t such a big deal.
The Phils know the cupboard is bare in the Minor Leagues. I’d say Carrasco, Bastardo, Josh Outman and James Happ should make the Major Leagues, and Fabio Castro and Drew Naylor have good shots. That’s why if they can coax a team into taking Adrian Cardenas and/or Jason Donald, the Phils won’t be suffering as much.
Aside from that, three of the four names Stark mentions I don’t really like. Only Sabathia is worth the gamble, and even then the price has to fit the long-term commitment.
As bare as the Phils pitching seems in 2009, there’s no sure thing that the Phils could win with their graduated prospects. That’s why this remains the best year to throw all the chips on the table. Lou Marson is my only untouchable. Go forth and go big, Phils.
Posts: 0 Pete
If the Phils trade Carrasco and Bastardo for Sabathia (or anyone else) they had better lock up the guy they get in return to a multi-year deal.
Posted: 06:08 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Sabathia isn’t open to talks for signing. If he gets traded he wants to hit the market, so he is strictly a rent-a-pitcher.
Posted: 06:10 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Is that true…I know the Indians don’t want to deal with a ‘window,’ but is CC himself opposed to re-signing instead of becoming a FA?
If he won’t sign, then the hell with him…no way it’s worth blowing up our pitching staff for the foreseeable future to get CC for 3 months. We’d be better served to focus on Harden or (much as I hate to say it) Bedard, who are under control beyond this year. Failing that, we need to look to second-tier guys on the block who won’t cost a mint to rent.
Posted: 06:18 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg V.
GO ALL IN!
Posted: 07:04 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
So what you’re trying to say Greg is to unload the farm and grab like 2 or 3 pitchers?
Posted: 07:11 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
if sabathia is devoted to hitting the market, id rell him to go to hell. also, sabathia choked hardcore in the alcs. the red sox beat him around. screw that 300 pound overhyped slug.
heres what you do based on the teams out of contention now. you go with one cheap rental 3rd starter like mad dog who iwll cost you nothing.
THEN you swoop in there and do a harden deal if the a’s are done or you go with sheets. theyre risky but theyre worth it. the philscant afford to lsoe their farm for a rental. i dont do rentals in any sport.
mike missanelli proposed victorino marson and carrasco for sabathia. now, i like mikey miss hes my fav philly radio personality. however, thats is INSANE!!! for a guy that is a rental. if the phillies make a boneheaded trade like that they deserve to suck for hte next decade.
marson is a close to sure thing. catchjers that can hit are harder to find than good pitching. carrasco and bastardo cant BOTH go can they? theyd have no pitching if they didnt resign the guy they got.
we talked about the harden deal earlier and that makes a lot of sense coupled with a greg maddox type of low risk c grade prospect deal.
then youve really solidified your staff and you can havetoo much pitching.
Posted: 07:54 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i dont even favor burnett now because hes an asshole who will opt out and hit the market too. arroyo will get smoked in cbp because he already does.
that idea about harang is good if the reds wont ask for lou marson
Posted: 07:56 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Reds might ask for Jaramillo. They need a catcher and he’s MLB ready.
Posted: 08:41 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 The voice of reason
IMO………
1) The Phils cant trade anyone on the 25 man roster that contributes unless it is Eaton, Ruiz, or Taguchi.
2) The Phils should not give up Carrasco and Bastardo for anyone……I could only imagine one of them for CC, Bedard, Harang, or Harden.
3) Remember that many Phillies fans were ok with Ed Wade trading minor leaguers Cole Hamels and Chase Utley to the D’backs for Schilling……I know no one here would have ever thought that way, but some did.
4) The Phils need to hold tight and not panic. Teams get desperate and they trade guys for less when they feel pressure to dump salary, etc…..(ie. Bobby Abreu). The Phils don’t need to play the role of the needy team, we need to play the role of the team that says, “We can win right now and we dont need your rent a pitcher.” Whether thats true or not. Way too often the Phils give away alot when they dont need to. It always seems like we’re on the wrong end of these deals.
5) We’re a good team now because of the guys from our system. Not every prospect will be great…..but alot of them will and the best teams build from within. I dont know the stats, but look at the best teams over the last decade.
6) Has anyone thought that maybe Bastardo or Carrasco could be the answer?
7) I may be wrong, but I feel like they have a plan. I cant imagine that they would be willing to trade the farm for a pitcher when they wouldnt sign one for free the last two offseasons or trade for Santana for God’s sake. They have a financial plan. They have to. I’m not saying I agree with it, but if getting Sabthia meant losing Lidge, Howard, Hamels, etc. b/c they cant afford them then screw that.
8) I just wrote way too much.
Posted: 10:33 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
haha Cole Hamels and Chase Utley for Schilling…
Posted: 10:41 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
you gotta reup lidge and extend hamels. failure to extend hamels warrants not buying tickets for at least a year.
sabathia is a choker anyway.
gotta get harden and maddox. dont give up the farm either. those guys can come cheap.
Posted: 10:41 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
or sheets
Posted: 10:41 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 The voice of reason
I like going for Harang or Bedard for a reasonable price. I don’t see Sheets coming available, but if so, him too.
I’m in the minority here. I want another SP…….. but I think we can win with the starting 5 we have.
Posted: 10:44 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 The voice of reason
I think Maddux gets raped at CBP. As does Arroyo. Lowe is a good choice, but the experts at ESPN never mention his name.
Posted: 10:45 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
see im almost willing to guarantee they dont win with the 5 they have now. you saw what the red sox did to moyer and kendrick. myers and eaton would fare no better.
you need another stud. you definitely do.
i like harang a lot. i think hed cost the farm though. hes MAD good
Posted: 10:46 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I agree with Geoff. Myers sucks, Kendrick has a lot to learn, Eaton is decent this year so far, Moyer is having a good year for the end of his career…a last hurrah if you will, and Hamels is amazing.
Posted: 11:03 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Kendrick can be a solid third starter in a year or so when that changeup develops. but hes still vulnerable in the playoffs as the red sox showed.
i shudder at the though of jarrod washburn or bronson arroyo. arroyo needs to go somewhere that favors pitchers. washburn..what? they better not get that guy. hes been terrible this year out there. i wouldnt give up a C prospect for that junk.
Posted: 11:08 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
until then kendrick is a 4th/5th starter type.
Posted: 11:09 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 T Mac
The more I analyze the pitchers out there, the more I realize that we should focus on guys like Greg Maddux and Derek Lowe, plus a LOOGY. They won’t cost us the farm, and they are much more experienced and dependable playoff pitchers than the bigger names out there. Once I saw Sabathia’s stats from last postseason, I don’t have any interest in getting him:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
2001 1 1 0 0 6.0 6 2 2 0 5 5 1 0 0 0 – 3.00
2007 3 3 0 0 15.1 21 15 15 3 13 14 1 2 0 0 – 8.80
Now look at Maddux:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1989 2 0 0 0 7.0 13 12 11 0 4 5 0 1 0 0 – 14.14
1995 5 0 1 0 38.0 35 14 12 0 7 19 3 1 0 0 – 2.84
1997 3 0 1 0 22.0 16 8 3 0 5 22 1 2 0 0 – 1.23
1999 5 4 0 0 28.0 27 9 7 2 9 17 1 2 0 0 – 2.25
2000 1 1 0 0 4.0 9 7 5 1 3 2 0 1 0 0 – 11.25
2001 3 3 0 0 16.0 18 11 8 1 5 12 0 2 0 0 – 4.50
2002 1 1 0 0 6.0 5 2 2 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 – 3.00
Total 32 11 2 0 192.0 191 95 72 5 50 122 11 14 1 0 0 3.38
Finally, look at Lowe:
Postseason Pitching Statistics
SEASON G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L SV HLD BLSV ERA
1998 2 0 0 0 4.0 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 – 2.25
1999 6 0 0 0 14.2 12 10 5 2 3 14 1 1 0 0 1 3.07
2003 5 3 0 0 23.2 21 12 11 1 14 11 0 3 1 0 0 4.18
2004 4 3 0 0 19.1 11 4 4 1 3 10 3 0 0 0 – 1.86
2006 1 1 0 0 5.1 6 4 4 2 2 6 0 0 0 0 – 6.75
Total 18 7 0 0 67.0 53 31 25 6 23 43 4 4 1 1 1 3.36.0 191 95 72 5 50 122 11 14 1 0 0 3.38
Posted: 11:12 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
lowe would be nice if the initial options fail.
sabathia is definitely a bad move. i watched the playoffs last year. he hung garbage up there there against the red sox and got smashed.
Posted: 11:17 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
im definitely a proponent of not throwing away out future for a rental
Posted: 11:17 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I’ve been saying Mad Dog for a long time now. Try and snag both along with Harden. If Harden goes down you still have Mad Dog and Lowe. Horde starting pitching like the BoSox.
Posted: 11:19 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
If you let up some garbage prospects for Lowe and Mad Dog that woudl rule. I’ve been saying it all along that the only prospects untouchable are Marson, Carrasco, and Savery. Maybe Golson and Bastrado.
Posted: 11:21 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
id go with those 5 guys as untouchable. i think you can get harden and maddox for other prospects. i really think so EVEN dealing with billy beane. beane knows he doesnt have a leg to stand on with the harden deal because of his injury history, hell take what you offer him and hell be happy with it. thats why hes being a hardass about blanton. hell con some desperate team out of good propsects for blanton too, you watch. ill bet harden goes for 2 b prospects and one c prospect
the padres dont care what you give them for maddox. theyll talk tough and theyll take a B propsect probably.
Posted: 11:27 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i have no idea what theyd want for lowe because they probably will think they are in the race up until the deadline
Posted: 11:28 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I bet you could get all 3 for Cardeans, Donald, the 3B prospect that I didn’t even know we had, Jaramillo(Pads need a catcher), Outman, Drabek, Biseneius, and maybe another 1 or 2 grade C prospects.
Posted: 11:32 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
probably. they ought to make sure harden and lowe come back if theyd get all 3 somehoe
whos actually solid for this rotation in the future though?
hamels, kendrick, carrasco. myers isnt a starter, moyer is old, eaton could implode next year after pitching well this year who knows. so youve got two empty slots next year. guarantee myers or eaton wont be in this rotation next year. even IF eaton has a good year.
having a guy like lowe around and harden when healthy in those two slots into the future and you have a good rotation. lets say they get harden and maddox. next year you have hamels-harden-kendrick-carrasco-free agent signing? lowe?.
more importantly for the playoffs
hamels – harden – maddox – moyer (myers, kendrick, eaton to the bullpen) condrey left off playoff roster.
looking at that i doubt they go that far.
so they go hamels – harden – moyer – kendrick/eaton (myers, kendrick/eaton to the pen)
Posted: 11:41 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
everyone knows myers wont be a starter next year. eaton may be here he may not. moyer will probably retire.
this rotation is going to need reloading anyway. theyre counting on carrasco or maybe even bastardo to come up next year.
theyll have 3 or 4 starters without this deadline pitcher. so theyll need to bring in at least one starter in the offseason anyway. if they get a guy under team control for longer than this year you can fill that hole too
Posted: 11:44 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
What if they get all 3? haha What would you do for a playoff 4 pitcher rotation with Hamels, Harden, Lowe, Moyer, and Mad Dog? I’d say go Mad Dog, Lowe, Hamels, Harden just because of Mad Dog and Lowes post season triumphs. If Hamels or Harden are bad in the 1st round and oyu make it to the NLCS try replacing one with Moyer. It could get interesting.
Posted: 11:45 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 T Mac
I’m really worried about Tom Gordon and think we need to send Myers back to the pen to pitch late innings and get him primed to be a key set-up guy in the pen for the playoffs.
Moyer is a good big game pitcher and I’m fine with him as a #3 for the playoffs.
I think you go with the hot hand between Kendrick/Eaton when playoff time comes for the #4.
So we need a good #2 for now and for the playoffs. If Harden requires too many good prospects, he’s not worth it because we would have to get another guy in case he goes down, which is pretty likely.
I think we should snag Maddux ASAP – the Pads are already out of the race, and then try to see if something can be done for someone like Harden and a LOOGY over the next month and a half.
I would feel a million times better about this team if we had Maddux replacing Myers in the rotation, and Myers at the back end of the bullpen.
Posted: 11:49 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
If you got Maddux and Harden your playoff rotation would be Hamels-Harden-Mad Dog-Moyer
Eaton and Kendrick wouldn’t even be in the rotation.
Your bullpen could be the following
Lidge-Closer
Myers-Set-up man
Romero-Situational lefty
phantom left handed reliever-LOOGY
Durbin- do anything guy
Eaton- Long reliever
You also have Madson, Gordon, Kendrick, Condrey, and Seanez to work with.
Posted: 11:56 PM on June 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruce
I’m curious.. if the Phillies aquire a starter (or two) prior to trade deadline and can fit instantly into rotation, which pitcher(s) do you drop from the 25 man roster? The roster can not expand (40) till September 1st.
Posted: 01:24 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Assuming they get 3 pitchers 2 starters and a reliever Condrey, Kendrick, and hmm…good question Bruce?
Posted: 01:26 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 tom
harden will not come cheap. beane is smart enough to take the two draft picks he’d get and not waste his time with B and C prospects, and while we’re at it let’s not act like the phillies would be the only ones putting their hand into that pot. unless they blew beane away he’d either take the better deal (that about any contender other than the cubs could offer) or take the draft picks.
you’re not getting two starters, if any, the phillies will trade for a loshe-esque pitcher to not lose anyone from the current roster and any important prospects… the safe but probably wise move.
Posted: 02:26 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 tom
also, kendrick would be the pitcher to go barring injury or collapse of eaton. this unless myers mysteriously goes on the DL at some point to get his shit together.
Posted: 02:27 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Lewisauce
Tom’s right. Like single ancient Greeks after Penelope, oodles of contending teams will try to woo Billy Beane to acquire Harden. Beane’s about as smart as they come at snagging the best deal for his good players (he’s been doing it long enough), so getting Harden will be an uphill battle and Beane will ask the farm. Someone will give him the farm. Maybe the Yankees?
I love the Maddux idea. How cool would it be if he helps us bury the Braves down the stretch and then takes us deep into the playoffs?
Posted: 08:43 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Harden is going to cost at least as much as Burnett, Arroyo, and Washburn… Sabathia isn’t worth the rental fee, and he definitely wants to hit the free agent market because he’ll be by far the top pitcher out there.
The Phillies don’t like signing FA’s to more than 3 years.. and Sabathia is going to command somewhere around 5 years, $70 million… if not more… the Phillies aren’t going to do that because they’ll have to pay Hamels $10 million+ in abitration the next few years.
Maddux and Derrick Lowe are legit starters, that would be good fits on this team.. we need to start rooting against the Padres and Dodgers, because if either of them are in the race, they won’t be moving them.
Posted: 09:33 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats why the phillies dont get the good free agents and dont get good pitching to stay here. theyd probably pony up the money. but NODBODY with a reputation will want to play for 2 or 3 year contracts. it just doesnt work that way anymore. stu dpitchers want MINIMUM 4 year deals usually more than that. you cant get long-term winning pitching with this 3 year bullshit.
also, what? rich harden gets hurt too much and has an injury history. he has to stay healthy to the deadline to even warrant being moved at all. otherwise NO team will want him. beane is going to get hte best deal he can get we know that. hes very good. but he knows that harden doesnt have that A-list prospect type of value
Posted: 10:02 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Harden is also not as proven as a guy like Haren. Haren is a great pitcher. Harden has the potential to be great, but you never know if his career will be over tomorrow. He’s shopping Blanton high knowing he can’t get anything for Harden. They are also waste deep in talented pitching in Oakland with no offense at all. What are the Yankees going to offer up for Harden, Philip Hughs? Please, we have a lot to offer, and Billy Beane knows it.
Posted: 10:06 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 fred
I wouldn’t go near Harden personally. He’s rarely healthy, and even in a supposodly healthy season this year he’s already been on the DL. Renting Sabathia isn’t worth the price either, so i’d go for Bedard or maybe Maddux.
Posted: 10:21 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I guarantee Beane wants to build an infield with this trade. we can send him a 3rd base prospect and cardenas as part of this trade. hell like that and itll be a good starting point. they need someone to go alongside daric barton in that infield for the future.
Posted: 10:21 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Fred, if the price is right it’s worth it. If he can stay healthy to the rest of the season and carry us to the world series then it’s worth it.
Posted: 10:26 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
The Orioles gave up 5 players for Bedard… so the Mariners are going to want a good bit back on him, to even make it worth their while to trade him… I think we should pass on him.
Maddux would be a good fit too, but I can really see him going back to Chicago.
I think Beane is going to ask for our pitchers in return.. thats what he always asks for because that is what holds the most value to other teams.. Hudson, Zito, Moulder, Haren…….. if they had any kind of a payroll in Oakland, they would be a world series contender every year.. cause this guy knows how to build a team.
Posted: 10:29 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
christ… MLB TRADE RUMORS has listed that Curt Schilling is out… the Red Sox are likely to target C.C. Sabathia.
I know hate the Red Sox more than the Yankees… still less then the NY Mutts though
Posted: 10:33 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
The Red Sox won’t get CC. They won’t give up the package that the Indians will be looking for. They’ll dangle something so the Yankees have to up their price, but that’s about it. It was just like the Santana trades. The Yankees made an offer, then the Red Sox made an offer about as good, and the Yankees wouldn’t up their stakes, so neither team got Santana. Boston didn’t want or need Santana they just didn’t want the Yankees to get him. It’ll be the same deal with CC. I really wish the Yankees got Santana because the Mets would be struggling to stay out of last place right now if they didn’t have him, and it would be so funny.
Posted: 10:39 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg
If I believe any of you… which I don’t… It sounds like Harden, or Maddux might be the way to go, with a possible return of Randy Wolfpack. Bedard, could be a great get, maybe a bit of an investment, though, the Mariners might want to stay out of the record books for Worst Trade Ever. I don’t believe he could be a clubhouse cancer, you can put the Douchiest dudes into a good situation and they’ll usually warm up. Even you, Dorn.
Posted: 10:47 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Boy, now aren’t we glad Schilling wanted to stay with the Sox?
Posted: 10:52 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 The voice of reason
Who’s that a picture of at the top of this post?
Posted: 11:03 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
bedards value is lower now than last year. hed bring less in return than he did to get to seattle. the mariners shouldnt even trade him. thatd be selling way low. but theyre such a mess they kind of do need to blow it up.
meanwhile, does anyone else think the mets need to blow that team up? say: ok the only two guys who are safe are santana and wright. everyone else is up for the right price
Posted: 11:10 AM on June 20, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Ok…..Predictions. We’ve all stated what we think they should do. What do you predict they WILL DO?
I predict they will get a #3 starter…..probably for Cardenas and a B ML. Most likely Derek Lowe.
Posted: 11:25 AM on June 20, 2008