Analyzing Utley’s Struggles
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, July 25, 2008 10:05 AM | Comments: 103
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Lost in the talk about the Phils biggest fall to date is the struggles of Chase Utley. Michael Radano of the Courier Post had a quote from Charlie Manuel about his best hitter’s problems.
“That’s part of the game. Good hitters hit slumps … It’s noticed a lot, especially when you go two or three games and don’t get a hit. He’ll be OK. I’ll put my money on Utley.”
This is the second known time this season Utley has gone through a slump, but really, since early June he’s been in a wide-angle slide. Since June 3 his average has plummeted from .325 to a now season-low .287. His on-base percentage is at a season-low .370, and his slugging percentage is also at its worst, at .566.
Not that Utley is a big walker, but since June 4, Utley has walked just 13 times. He has struck out 29 times in that span.
Looking deeper, his current stats suggest he’s hitting more fly balls than ever (0.73 GB/FB ratio, compared to 0.89 career). His batting average of balls in play is .288, which is way down from his career .324 (and his 2007 .368). This suggests he’s just hitting balls right to fielders. He’s not hitting the ball on the barrel. His timing seems off.
Interestingly, this slide started at almost the same time the New York Times published a piece on Utley’s then-MVP season. A telling quote from stud Cincinnati pitcher Edinson Volquez undermined the piece:
“Utley, I think this is a little hole he’s got right now, changeups inside. He can hit fastball down and in. Fastball away, he’s going to kill you. I have a good changeup. I just use my changeup.â€
Could it be that Volquez’ quote rang throughout baseball? That he’s getting more changeups inside? Or is it Utley’s problem, that he’s just a little lost, that he’ll balance back out into a .300 hitter?
Whatever it is, the Phillies desperately need Utley to perform much better if they’re going to have a shot down the stretch.
Posts: 0 Geoff
you know what? we need to trade him to the……just kidding. he needs to get his act together though. id move him to 5th in the lineup but they dont have any other good hitters to move up ahead of him until they acquire someone.
Posted: 10:54 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Rich
I don’t expect anything from Chase when he comes to the plate anymore. If he got out of the slump he’s been in then maybe he would ignite the entire offense. The meat of our batting order requires all three to be hitting. Otherwise, everything falls to pieces. At least Ryan and Pat are still hitting the ball. If they go into a slump then this team has little chance of clinching the NL East.
Posted: 11:02 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
theres like two or three guys i trust in this lineup right now. well, i guess just two. howard and burrell and theyve each had their own struggles. its pretty clear that they need another STARTING outfielder to force werth and victorino into a platoon. this guy HAS to be a .300 type hitter too. if they dont get that then they might as well just become sellers.
Posted: 11:07 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Rick
Oh you mean someone like Aaron Rowand?
Posted: 11:09 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Yeah, Vic can’t hit lefties usually. He’s not very good from the right side. Werth/Vic would be a good platoon. Victorino has been huge for us in July though. Victorino is an everyday centerfielder though, he really is. He’s been getting things done lately.
Posted: 11:13 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yes, someone like aaron rowand. exactly.
Posted: 11:15 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
the money thing isnt an excuse anymore. winners get things done, losers make excuses.
Posted: 11:15 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Todd
8th inning, bases loaded, 2 outs in a tie game… last year, rowand got a hit more often than not. They pulled out a lot of games like that. I like Werth and he replaces the production but not the clutch.
anyway, i’m a new yorker and heading down to the game on saturday… can anyone let me know if i can bring a bag in to the stadium? Is it like Shea where they just search you? or like yankee stadium where they confiscate the damn thing?
Posted: 11:18 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 mick
Chase will be fine if Charlie keeps him from getting exhausted–this guy plays at 120% all the time and needs multiple days off–his recent problems and home run derby effort clearly show a tired ballplayer–
Posted: 11:47 AM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 CT
Todd, they ask you to open your bag at CBP and they take a quick look inside. You’ll be able to take it with you to your seat as long as the contents look ok.
Posted: 12:15 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob E.
Todd they will let you in but they will check it
Posted: 12:22 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
“Vic can’t hit lefties usually”
Didn’t he take Randy Johnson deep twice.. and Johan Santana yard as well ?
Todd..
anything you bring in drink-wise must still be sealed.. you can bring in hoagies, chips, peanuts and stuff already opened I think.
Posted: 12:27 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Todd
cool, thanks everyone.
Posted: 12:38 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 metsos
How about howard. At least utley puts the ball in play. how can you guys just let howard off the hook. he looked clueless against Perez. I know the guy has a ton of homers and rbi’s but the guy has 135 ks. thats 135 times he did not put the ball in play. batting .235 for 10 million dollars. Its funny that you just accept that from him. Mean while you complain about utley. And just to throw this out there. reyes may be young and dumb, but he isnt batting .269 with 6 homers and 35 rbis and he shows up on time so he doesnt get benched especially for big games. by the way reyes gets paid about half of what your mvp does.
Posted: 12:41 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Darren Daulton
I just came back from traveling through time and visiting aliens and I was happy to see that they have things called blogs now. Golly, who would have thunk? I was also surprised to see that the name Jeff is now spelled Geoff? Maybe aliens got to Geoff’s parents too. Oh well, maybe the ghosts of Mitch Williams will never go away. Speaking of Mitch, I visited him when I traveled back to 2003. I can’t believe that such upstanding Philadelphia fans were threatening his life. It just doesn’t fit into their reputation as being classy. Oh well, I am off to my wife beating lessons. Today I am teaching Brett Myers.
Posted: 12:42 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Phils
he struggles against pitchers when they go inside first then outside and back inside with soft stuff and hard away.
Posted: 12:48 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 mg52
I must admit that Metsos is correct. So many people rave about all the production that Howard provides, but how about average? Defense? Fortitude? If he were a real offensive threat, this team would not languish for nearly two months. He seldom hits the opposite way, and even when contact is made, it always seems a home run. Any player who strikes out that much clearly is a hit-or-miss player – the kind with whom a team on the cusp of contention should part ways. All power, little contact, many punch-outs – he has set that tone for this entire team. The Mets have made them pay for not rectifying this mentality, and many other teams have done and will continue to do the same.
The management – in the dugout and in the front office – must accept some responsibility for the decline of the 2006 MVP. They erroneously believed that he had to pull the ball – because all great hitters, they thought, were supposed to play that way. Why not allow a hitter to strive for contact by clobbering easy fastballs and moving with trickier pitches, then letting the ball fall where it may? And now that the management remains tethered to the hope that this offense magically will eradicate its troubles and has not yet added anyone who can contribute athleticism, this team continues to stretch the limits of mediocrity.
Posted: 12:56 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Phlorida
its called an “at bat” and its MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL. Pitchers (the good ones) usually will not throw the exact same pitch everytime. Utley, Howard and Rollins especially need to sack up and start earning those millions…I know its July but soon its “only August” then its “only September”….
Posted: 12:58 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Rick
So far if you average out $10Mil over the following categories, Ryan Howard has made:
1) $22,522.52/PA
2) $344,827.58/HR
3) $74,074.07/K
4) $10,000,000/SB
5) $109,890.11/H
6) $909,090.91/Error
Posted: 01:05 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Darren Daulton
Phlorida is a racist pig.
Posted: 01:07 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
i think utley is washed up…..bring back marlon anderson
Posted: 01:08 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
ok, now thats extreme. or a joke.
Posted: 01:11 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
probably has to do with the HR derby……….
Posted: 01:12 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg
I’m not even saying the series was a disaster. We lost, but only 1 out of 3 at Shea. We’ve been playing like shit, and the Mets have been playing good. OK, fine, we are in second place, I can accept that. But now the brakes need to be applied, and everyone on that team better do some serious re-evaluation of their attitudes, their approach to the ballgame, and at-bats. This offense and individual players are too good for this and the players to pick it up and find a way to be productive hitters again, or this season will slip away and it will be a damn shame.
Posted: 01:13 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
why is it a shame? cant even win a playoff game
Posted: 01:16 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg
Well, at least Howard doesn’t charge as much for strikeouts. That might be the dumbest statistical breakdown I’ve ever seen.
Posted: 01:17 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
send howard back to lakewood……….lets go blueclaws
Posted: 01:18 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
I agree with David. What use is it to get to the playoffs if we’re just going to get swept anyway? It’s a shame that they build up our hopes every season only to let us down. It’s like taking the school whore to the prom and not getting laid.
Posted: 01:19 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Its a shame you guys are all giving up on this team and its not even August yet… and we’re 6 games over .500
Posted: 01:20 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
What is a shame is that the players are giving up…Jimmy Rollins can’t come to a game on time? Why do we care more than they do?
Posted: 01:21 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
maybe J Roll was publicizing his episode of MTV cribs and just lost track of time….
Posted: 01:27 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
i dont think the players are giving up and i dont know where that notion came from… Rollins has been laid-back all year…. I saw that in the Colorado series at home before he got benched, he was jogging on ground balls instead of hustling.
ANd down in Florida I was asking myself why wasn’t he at least attempting to score with two-outs on that lazy ball to LF.
And now this… Why doesn’t he take the “team bus” is that something that other teams do, let guys decide on their own how they want to travel? Why didn’t he get in tocuh with someone from the team to say he was late and why he was late.. Just some WEIRD stuff going on with him this year.. not saying he needs to get traded, because he’s one of the best all-around SS in baseball.. but something needs to get him going
Posted: 01:28 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
all i want them to do is move all in, sans marson basically who stays, OR start planning for the future. dont leave us stuck in between. just good enough to be in the race but not win anything real.
weve been there for YEARS! time to break free from that by getting top talent at the deadline or start rebuilding a bit to restock the pool.
what do you think i know EVERY prospect in baseball?
Posted: 01:29 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Doug
I’m not sure this fits the tone given that it’s more of a team analysis than an Utley analysis, but here goes:
People, often for good reason, tout a team’s run differential as a better measure of future potential than their present record. The reasoning is such that, unless you get blown out in your losses but can always manage to win the close ones, you eventually have to compile a lot more runs than you allow to have a decent record. The Marlins have managed to do just that; a negative 33 run differential but with a record similar to ours. This means they’re either lucky or have the heart to win their close games.
On the contrary, the Phillies have a +72 run differential suggesting that, if luck evens out over time and they go 50/50 in close games, they’ve got the stuff to win more than their present record suggests. If the Marlins phenomenon is reversed, though, a team can tank a record pretty badly by losing all close games even if their run differential is indicative of a better team.
Now, let’s further dissect their +72 run differential. The offense was on a tear for a short stint in the first half when they rattled off a 12-2 win over Washington, a 15-6 win over Houston, a 20-5 win over Colorado, a 12-3 win over Florida, and a 20-2 win over St. Louis. In a relatively short period, they had outstanding bursts of offense when it didn’t really matter (does run #20 count for much when you’re up 19-2?) If you exclude those 5 blowouts, their run differential drops to +11. (That’s drastically worse than that of the Braves and only slightly better than that of the Diamondbacks and Dodgers)
How is a +11 run differential team going to fare if it can’t win close games? None of us want to see the answer to that one played out.
Posted: 01:30 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
is it true J Roll has a vibrating king sized bed? man, he is livin it up
Posted: 01:31 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Andrew C
Utley hit rock bottom when he struck out and lost the bat. It’s all on the up and up now.
Posted: 01:33 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
Being laid-back is one thing…half-assing things is quite another. Does he want to win or doesn’t he? When your the face of an organization you have certain responsibilities. You don’t get to choose to be laid-back and treat your job like you’re working at the local burger king and just show up late…
Posted: 01:33 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
utley will only be on the up and up when he gets traded from our organization……remember abreu?
Posted: 01:34 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
Utley for Cano? that kid’s on fire.
Posted: 01:37 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
cano isnt really that good. hes ok. not in the same league as even a struggling chase utley.
Posted: 01:38 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
Cano is young still…he’s going to be the games best 2B in five years.
Posted: 01:41 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I once had a job at Modell’s Sporting Goods… over the course of about 8-10 months, I was never once on time for work… and never got in trouble for it.
THAT is how I roll
Posted: 01:42 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 ryan
his body language just doesn’t look good at the plate. he looks completely lost. every time he hits a ball that he thinks is going to be an out, he immediately puts his head down and slowly jogs to first base. come on chase. stop looking at your shoelaces all the time! he looks depressed or something. hopefully this weekend he’ll slap a few into that corner near the bullpen he always bombs em into and snaps out of it.
Posted: 01:43 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Cano was supposed to be the best young 2b in the game for the past 5 years and he hits 8th and 9th and stuff in the lineup for a reason.. he’s good, but he’s not as good as Utley, or Kinsler
Posted: 01:43 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 david
have you seen the yankees line up?
anyway, chase looks depressed b/c he plays for the phillies. we all know it, we will never go anywhere.
Posted: 01:45 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
Don M: Well I would hope that the MVP of the National League would want to set a better example than a shoe jokey at Modell’s would…no offense though…one love brother.
Posted: 01:46 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
agreed there. i liked what i saw from kinsler when we were playing texas. the media always overrates the mets and the yankees’ prospects. for obvious reasons. the yankees have a thinner farm than the phillies and so do the mets.
Posted: 01:46 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
Cano bats 6th and this is his third season…he’s 25 to Utley’s 29.
Posted: 01:48 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 MetHater
There is a point where you have to stop playing for today and look towards the future…I mean, how much do you think Utley will contribute in the next five years compared to Cano.
Posted: 01:49 PM on July 25, 2008
Posts: 0 Darren Daulton
Calling Phlorida a racist pig is not extreme. Here is what he wrote yesterday (please note that I do not condone this and disagree with everything Phlorida wrote- as I am sure most people do)…
Phlorida Says:
July 24th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
hopefully the jalapeno bacteria will wreak havoc on all the border jumping mets players, and fans for that matter. turn down the reggaeton and finish trimming my hedges. sorry fellas, but these trolling mets bums get to me
Posted: 01:51 PM on July 25, 2008