A.S. and A.H.: What Can The Phils Do?
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, July 09, 2008 11:02 AM | Comments: 45
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It’s merely July 9, yet we’re already in the A.S. (After Sabathia) and A.H. (After Harden) eras in baseball. Both have been dealt, and both are in the National League Central. The Brewers and Cubs front offices took the big gambles and decided to win now, grabbing the top-two cards on the trade-deadline deck.
And the Phillies?
“I think we can win with what we have. But obviously the ideal is to upgrade. That said, we will continue to be aggressive to make an upgrade. That said, it doesn’t make sense to make a move just to make a move.”
That’s Phillies Asst. GM Mike Arbuckle, courtesy Sam Donnellon. Once you get by all the “that said”s, you’ll notice this front office doesn’t have many choices now. Could they package the top of their farm for Erik Bedard? Could they do almost the same for AJ Burnett? Are they worth it? More likely, they’ll throw a mid-range prospect and a low-range prospect to San Diego for Randy Wolf. Or to Cleveland for Paul Byrd.
That said … that’s not enough.
Now, of course the Phils were heavy in the running for CC Sabathia. Supposedly they were No. 2 for the Indians. But they didn’t have enough. More Arbuckle, courtesy Todd Zolecki:
“The Phillies seemed willing to part with some top prospects for Sabathia, but it was unclear how far they would go to get a player like Bedard or Burnett. Arbuckle said it was unlikely they would trade a top prospect — double-A righthander Carlos Carrasco falls into that category — for a ‘run-of-the-mill fifth starter.’”
I’d plop Wolf and Byrd in that “run-of-the-mill fifth starter” category. That means there’s really one name left: Roy Oswalt. I’ll precede my discussion of Oswalt by acknowledging his strained hip and the possibility he’s been pitching injured all year (7-8, 4.60 ERA). There, that’s my precede. The Phils have scouted him (though they may have seen his injury risk and backed off). He would have to waive his no-trade clause, and he’s worth $14M next year, $15M in 2010 and $16M in 2011. So he’s worth plenty, obviously.
So here’s what I’ll put to table: Could the Phillies trade Brett Myers, Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald to Houston for Oswalt?
Jose Valverde hasn’t exactly been sparkling as closer for Houston, and he’s only there until the end of the season. Myers could slide into the closer role and be reunited with the GM who drafted him. Carrasco would be a back-end starter for Houston next season. Donald could fill the shortstop gap once Miguel Tejada leaves/ages (he can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, by the way).
The Phils would have to eat some of Oswalt’s money despite losing Myers, and obviously he’s a huge risk this season, but they could do it. So would you do it? Would you throw caution into the wind and go at him?
Posts: 0 Jeffrey
That “I think we can win with what we have” talk makes my blood boil.
Win what? A bunch of ballgames? Maybe even 80-90? Okay, sure. Win a pennant or a World Series? Uh uh.
When I read that this morning, I had to double check to make sure it wasn’t Ed Wade speaking.
Posted: 11:10 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I kind of would. Hes the same injury risk as bedard it. You have him for 3 years and hes set in his wages. Itd be a good move.
To go for byrd or wolf or someone like that would PISS ME OFF. thats basically giving up on the season. If they do that, then might as well just get rid of like one third of the team while youre at it.
is oswalt back off the dl? i havent been paying attention to him since he got hurt. when hes on his one of the best in baseball. better than bedard. hes only 30 years old.
Posted: 11:13 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
I’ve always liked Oswalt, but unless you’re sure that his downturn this season has been directly related to the hip strain (and you’re convinced he’ll get healthy), then no way.
If the Phils want a top of the rotation starter, I say go for Bedard. If they want a rental, go for Burnett (and build a package around Donald). It’ll cost more for Bedard but they’ll have him through the end of next year, so I’d be willing to surrender Carrasco in a deal to net Bedard.
Posted: 11:16 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I cant belierve they said that, we think we can win with what we have? what?
mike arbuckle is a complete idiot anyway. thats why our farm system isnt awesome.
Posted: 11:19 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I’m telling you…make a stunning deal to KC for DeJesus and Greiger. Something that would blow their minds and not include Marson.
Posted: 11:27 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Sorry Greinke.
Posted: 11:28 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Good call Phil. DeJesus would thrive in this lineup and maybe fix them.
you mean grienke?
grienke & dejesus for myers, cardenas, bastardo plus one other prospect?
i dunno why KC wants to get rid of those guys, but they DID say if they are impressed they will trade both of them.
Posted: 11:32 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Better yet, pick up Olivo, Greinke, and DeJesus. They’re looking to unload them all. I bet you can get those 3 for Victorino, Donald, Bastrado, Jaramillo(they want a catcher), Outman, and another low level prospect.
Posted: 11:32 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
They wouldn’t take Myers Geoff. That’s retarded. They have a really good closer.
Posted: 11:33 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob E.
I know we are looking for a #1 but I really like Phil’s of at least getting Grienke. I think he has a ton of potential, but i wouldnt sell the farm with him. Also no one get your hopes up. Mike Arbuckle and AMaro are gonna be the same as years past, watching the trade deadline go by.
Posted: 11:33 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg V.
“It’s obvious we can win with what we have”! Hey Mike! Our opening day starter is an Iron Pig you fucking idiot! Adam Eaton let up 8 runs in 2.2 the other day! And last night Hamels pitches a gem, and got no run support! Doesn’t look like winning to me!
Posted: 11:35 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
We have to find some way of getting myers out of here. i was trying to sneak him in there.
Im ok with giving up victorino for grienke and dejesus. olivo cant get on base hes garbage though. but itd make room for lou marson. i would beg KC to take jenkins. absolutely beg them offer to pay half or something to get him out of here. dejesus becomes your CF and you bring up someone to replace taguchi because theres no chance in hell that KC actually takes jenkins.
Posted: 11:36 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
DeJesus, Greinke, and Olivo…I’m telling you. Someone should somehow figure out how to get a hold of Gillick and tell him to make it happen.
Posted: 11:37 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Olvio is hitting .260 with 29 ribbies. Ruiz is hitting 204 with 20 ribbies. Both are really good defensive catchers. Who would you take at this point? Maybe Olivo isn’t the answer, in that case don’t get him and bring Jaramillo or Marson up.
Posted: 11:39 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruce
Here is an alternative solution; an in house one at that.
Latest team report:
“RHP Brett Myers’ second start in his remedial mission to the minors brought a positive report from Class AAA Lehigh Valley pitching coach Rod Nichols. Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said Myers’ fastball averaged about 91 mph, with a few 93s and 94s mixed in. Myers allowed three runs (two earned) in 7 1/3 innings and got the victory. Dubee couldn’t say if Myers’ start Saturday at Class AA Reading will be his last before he rejoins the Phillies. Myers agreed last week to a 20-day minor league assignment to correct his mechanics.”
As Manuel puts it, Myers is a gamer and will give 100% as a starter once back with the team.
So with Myers’ return after the All Star break to join Hamels, Moyer, kendrick and Eaton/Happ, one can hope for better results with the rotation. And …. if Myers is successful in his comeback, the Phillies will be thankful that they didn’t gamble and lose any of their top prospects for the ubiquitous “B” list pitcher available in the market.
Posted: 11:42 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yo, I hate to break it to you, but when you translate AAA to MLB. Myers first start translates to like 6 runs allowed and his second start translates to 3/4 runs allowed.
thats garbage.
AAA is a wasteland of washed up has beens and some good prospects mixed in. not only for the phillies bu for a lot of teams. eh, its more like half and half i guess. the trend in mlb now is to have all your hot prospects in AA. you see more AA-MLB call ups lately.
if he cant get those guys out then i dont want to see him again.
Posted: 11:47 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
GET THIS THROUGH YOUR HEAD: BRETT MYERS IS NOT OUR SAVIOUR! if he comes back and is good then thats fine he can be the 3rd starter. but hes NOT a number two AND NEVER WILL BE. hes a 3. hes not even as good as ryan dempster who has stuff half as good as him.
Posted: 11:48 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
What makes anyone think that the Royals, under a new relatively new GM and manager who want to build around young pitching would trade away a very good, and very cheap young guy like Greinke?
Posted: 11:50 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
im tired of it bruce. pat gillick is a lazy bum. he can shed that reputation by getting off his ass and getting us some good players and good pitchers.
anyone can resign brad lidge. thats the most obvious trade and resginign of all time. now its time to earn his money
Posted: 11:51 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i dont know why theyd do that. they probably wouldnt thats why it seems too good to be true.
Posted: 11:52 AM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Put together a package to get Harang and Freel from the Reds (pending a physical on Harang, who crapped the bed in his last start and may be hurt).
Posted: 12:04 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I think Harang just needs a change of scenery to a team that can give him run support. As for Greinke…the Royals already said him and DeJesus are available for the right price. They’re a shitty orginzation so the right price might be a couple of authentic cheese steaks from Pat’s “king of steaks” and a signed Mike Schmidt rookie card.
Posted: 12:10 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Oh, and as for Harang he’s let up 41 ER in his past 10 starts. That’s pretty bad. He either needs a change of scenery or is hurt.
Posted: 12:11 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Brandon Funston
It’s good to see you guys are willing to get rid of Myers for peanuts, when it’s obvious he has much more intrinsic value than that. I’d put a hold value on him for now.
Good thing you guys don’t play for our Friends and Family league.
Posted: 12:25 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
I’ve been calling for Freel, Dejesus, or Taveras the day they became available. I’ve said it before and I’ll continue to say it, any of these guys will help the team more than a high end ace that costs half the farm. Give us Grienke.
Posted: 12:26 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Yeah, Harang’s been crappy lately…the Reds are fairly dysfunctional right now, so I’m thinking it’s more a change of scenery than an injury, but clearly I’m just speculating there.
What I had read seemed to indicate the Royals were inclined to keep Greinke (why not – he’s 24, cheap, and under control). If they will sell him and DeJesus, Gillick should trade anyone to get that done. THAT is a deal that will help this team. Bedard and Oswalt are window dressing.
What do you think KC will realistically want? Carrasco, Bastardo, Cardenas, and Golson? More than that? I’d do any deal that doesn’t include Marson. Someone get Gillick on the phone before he gives away a similar haul for Bedard who – let’s face it – has had one excellent year and a bunch of average to slightly above-average ones.
Posted: 12:30 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Doug
Myers isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s being used ineffectively. He’s a power pitcher with an aging arm. Last year, he was in the closer’s role where he’d throw 15 pitches. He can’t maintain that power as a starter. Lidge took Myers’ spot, but imagine a scenario where a starter only has to get through 6 or 7 because he knows he’s got Romero-Myers-Lidge to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th.
Now, if we can only get those bats going!
Posted: 12:30 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Wow Doug, you’d really take Myers over Durbin?
Posted: 01:14 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 jeff
Harang is fat like C.C., except minus the electric stuff. Oswalt seems washed up to me, and makes too much money. Maybe he’s just hurt, but I’d rather get Bedard if we’re gonna have to give up Carrasco. Heres a thought: why not bring up Carrasco and Marson, or maybe just Marson. Ruiz has been horrid this year, and Marson is raking down there. He’s 21 right? Not beyond the pale for a kid of his talent to come up at that age, and if he struggles, you send him back down. The Phillies always seem scared to let the young kids try it at the Major league level, while other teams always seem to have their prospects coming up earlier.
Posted: 02:20 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Griffey and A-Rod starter when they were 18 if I’m not mistaken. Jay Bruce is what 20? King Felix 21? Come on…give the kid a chance. He’s earned it.
Posted: 02:27 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 jeff
Yeah I mean the only argument I could see against it is that since he’s a catcher, he might not be up to calling a major league game yet. But even so, you could have the games he catches called from the bench, or even just use him as a pinch hitter. He’d certainly be better than So Terrible.
Posted: 02:30 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
You don’t want him as a pinch hitter. You want him to get as much seasoning as possible in the minors. If you’re going to bring him up to the bigs then he better play everyday.
Posted: 02:37 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
The Phillies routinely waste like 3 or 4 years of someones carreer because arbuckle and co are completely inept at knowing when someone is ready unless its painfully obvious.
I actually will say with certainty, that in terms of knowing when to bring people up AND in terms of bringing up YOUNG players to regularly contrbute, the phillies over as long as i can remember have been THE WORST TEAM at those things BY FAR ive ever seen in major league baseball or potentially any sport.
they are horrible at that. ryan howards career path was screwed up because they BROUGHT IN someone to block him when he was reayd to come up. Utley was held back too long as well.
its absurd.
bring up this kid NOW! at the least, bring up jaramillo. do something.
Posted: 02:44 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
The only player they brought up really fast was Rollins.
Posted: 02:53 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah they did he was still like 21/22 though when he came up. it mustve been really obvious.
Posted: 02:55 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
I really believe I could be a better GM. No, I’m not just a coinceited motherfucker, and if the Phillies go off signs that are painfully obvious then why is Ruiz still here? I’m pretty sure that batting .204 is as painfully obvious as it gets and is the performance equivalent to a starter’s ERA being 6.00.
Posted: 03:15 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
I get that he’s here for his defense, his ability to call a game, and I’ve defended him until now. He needs to get his shit together, atleast put him in AAA until after the all star break.
Posted: 03:16 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
As far as the original topic goes, I wouldn’t mind to give up a few minor leaguers for results right now. We’re as close to a competitive team as they get, not there yet, and it we add an everyday right fielder and a starter then that would help us clinch the division.
SS Rollins ____RF Dejesus
RF Freel _____SS Rollins
2B Utley
1B Howard
LF Burrell
CF Victorino
3B Feliz
C Coste
P
It looks good, damn good.
Posted: 03:23 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
I think we’re going to have to give up half our system for the starter or Victorino. It’s inevitable.
Posted: 03:24 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Im liking david dejesus in the lineup. im all over that. im calling KC right now if im gillick and trying to pick up dejesus as soon as or at the same time as im going after bedard/oswalt/whoever it ends up being
Posted: 03:30 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Werth>Victorino
Werth can be our everyday RF and DeJesus can be our everyday CF.
Posted: 03:31 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I’m sure DeJesus would love to paly on a contending team.
Posted: 03:34 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Even if that is the case and Gillick feels the same way, you have to drive Victorino’s stock up and continue to play him in case we are looking to trade him.
Posted: 03:35 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
That might be why he has been playing better than a more deserving Werth.
Posted: 03:44 PM on July 9, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
This topic title is very decieving, it should be “Be realistic: What will the Phils do?” instead of what can they do, because they COULD do alot but they wont, reality is setting in.
Posted: 03:48 PM on July 9, 2008