At The Half: The Need For A Starter
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, July 15, 2008 06:02 PM | Comments: 21
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As it stands, the Phillies have a three-man starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer.
There are a few others that could round that out — Brett Myers, JA Happ and Adam Eaton.
A couple other options remain as possibilities — Carlos Carrasco, Kris Benson, Brian Mazone, Player to be Named Later.
So it’s a mess, and not a good mess to have. We know that Hamels is good as an ace; he can go eight and nine innings and pitch masterfully. We know Kendrick and Moyer are good enough to go six innings, but we can’t hope for more. They’re good for the back end of the rotation. Heck, they could even pass as No. 3 and 4 starters in this watered down National League.
It’s been proposed that maybe a rotation with four Kendrickian starters would suffice. Could it?
Last year’s Red Sox won a World Series with one dominant ace (Josh Beckett, 145 ERA+), one pretty good pitcher (Curt Schilling, 122 ERA+) and three slightly-above-average or average guys (Daisuke Matsuzaka, 108 ERA+; Jon Lester, 104 ERA+; Tim Wakefield, 100 ERA+).
This year’s Phillies have one dominant ace (Hamels, 140 ERA+), one above average pitcher (Moyer, 112 ERA+), one average guy (Kendrick, 99 ERA+) and two guys well below average (Eaton, 77 ERA+; Myers, 76 ERA+).
Going back further, the 2006 Cardinals had a rotation mirroring this year’s Phils. But they were the exception, a team that got hot at exactly the right time. Every other champion since 1998 (other than the Johnson/Schilling combo of 2001) had a rotation with four pitchers with an ERA+ over 100. It remains true: To win the World Series, you need consistently good pitching.
And while you can’t speculate, you can’t bank on Myers, or Eaton, or Happ, or Carrasco, or Mazone, or Benson to be the answer. You can’t bank on any of them to obtain and retain ERA+ over 100. You can’t rely on them to be average.
The Phillies are one above-average pitcher away from solving their problem. AJ Burnett has an ERA+ of 82, but in the last four seasons, he’s been consistently over 112. Erik Bedard has a 108 ERA+, which might be enough. But I wouldn’t be happy with just Greg Maddux, with his 99 ERA+ at Petco Park. Or Paul Byrd, with his 77 ERA+. Roy Oswalt? His 92 ERA+ seems like an exception compared to his career 137 ERA+. He would be worth it.
The bottom line is a trade for a “B-Level” pitcher won’t be worth it. I’m not even talking about what the Phils would have to give up. I’m talking about getting through the other 29 teams in baseball. I’m talking about Game 2 of the World Series. Seriously — Matsuzaka vs. Moyer? I know who I’m taking.
Maybe the Phils have something amazing up their sleeve (Roy Halladay, anyone?), but from what we’ve seen, it’s more likely they don’t. And if that’s the case, it’s likely a World Series parade won’t be scheduled for Broad Street in late October.
Posts: 0 cramer
Im thinking Halladay or Oswalt
Also, Why not try out Romero in a couple of starts and get a new setup man
ROTATION
Hamels
Moyer
Kendrick
Halladay
Happ (or potentially Carrasco or Romero ((Myers is like a “number 6″ starter)))
Moyer can hit too, why not put him eighth with ruiz in the nine hole
Posted: 06:11 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 philsphan
Cramer: Halladay would be awesome, but I don’t know if the Blue Jays have made him available. The cost would be high as well.
Also, JC Romero will never be in the starting rotation. The last time he started at the ML level was in 2001 for the Twins. In 2000 as a starter his era was 7.02 and in 2001 it was 6.23 Romero is much better in the bullpen and the pen needs him there anyway.
Posted: 06:21 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
Could not have said it better myself (so I’m not going to try). Every Phillies fan who thinks the rotation is “just fine” should read this entry. Well done, Tim, I couldn’t agree more.
Posted: 06:22 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Robbie
Breaking news…..
Phillies trade Carrasco, Donald, Werth, Golson and Outman for AJ Burnett and Alex Rios…..
Posted: 06:28 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
Nice try Robbie. I’m not even gonna ask for a source for that bs.
Posted: 07:04 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Derek
No robbie, that’s not the trade, I heard it was Rios and Halladay for Donald and Golson straight up….c’mon let’s be serious and get out of never never land
Posted: 08:20 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruno
A.J. has no hitter stuff and he has a no hitter. No one has the stuff A.J. has. A.J. leads A.L. in strike outs. One game could mean the World Series. If he has his 97mi/hr. fastball going and is throwing his curve ball for strikes, game over. He maybe worth taking a chance on.
CC Sabathia stunk it up real bad last year in the playoffs.
Posted: 08:23 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Im promoting a taveras trade.
Posted: 08:37 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruno
A plus for A.J. is that he’s been in A.L. East division for the last three years so if you can play and that division you can play in any division.
Posted: 08:41 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruno
Forget about Halliday, he’s the Derek Jeter of the Blue Jays.
Posted: 08:43 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Derek
Bruno who are you…Burnett’s PR guy?
Posted: 11:08 PM on July 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruno
Derek, of course not.
Posted: 12:06 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 clicheguevara
Bedard is not the answer, the last thing we need is another head case like him to conspire with Brett. Also the whole Gillick to Seattle thing is going to make a huge distraction/excuse for a bad second half if a trade goes down there.
I strongly believe Burnett or Oswalt would solve all of our problems. Burnett’s stuff is just sick, he will flat out dominate 2 out of 5 games and it’s that potential that we need in the playoffs. Sadly I just don’t see it happening. I used to think Marson and especially Carrasco were off limits, but now I would give anything for a top SP. Sure, Carrasco may be the next Josh Beckett, but it’s not going to happen before our ship sails.
Posted: 02:39 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Haha Roy Halladay, funny. If he was on the market he would have been gone before Sabathia. Oswalt would be the best option but he’s not going anywhere unless Wade gets major league ready franchise building prospects in return.
Our best option is Bedard but only at cost, the guys too much of a risk to allow the farm to take anything more than a small hit but he could be more effective than anyone else on the list if he’s game is on and personality toned down. Burnett’s hasn’t pitched particularly well on a very strong pitching team and is a walking DL advert, by all means pick the guy up but a deal would have to be for Golson and not much more for it to be worth our while and maybe he walks at the end of the year and we net the additional draft picks to come out on top.
Randy Wolfe’s not what were looking for but if we could somehow lure Greg Maddux that would be a fantastic move and am not apposed to the idea of Freddy Garcia returning if he wants to finish what he started on an incetives lacened deal.
Whatever happens the move needs to come fast because this team needs to focus on winning not who’s coming and going.
Posted: 06:49 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 metsR#1
keep dreaming about obtaining halladay or burnett or oswalt. the phillies have made it clear the aren’t trading either carrasco or larson for a rent-a-player, and those are the only 2 prospects the organization has that other teams are interested in. you all might as well get used to the idea of benson or eaton starting games in september while the mets continue to throw aces to the mound night in and night out.
Posted: 08:08 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Why don’t you go debate baseball at the zoo? See that word ‘debate’… To clarify it means:
a formal discussion on a particular topic in a public meeting or legislative assembly, in which opposing arguments are put forward.
• an argument about a particular subject, esp. one in which many people are involved : the national debate on abortion | there has been much debate about prices.
We have this thing here where we talk about Philly baseball and are more than happy to have Mets fans in the conversation, but why is it that most of you that show up on make your points like a special ed pre-schooler with your ‘quirky’ little comic lines…?
Posted: 08:28 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 steve
did someone just say the Mets will keep throwing aces to the mound night in and night out? You’ll have to show me those aces I see 1.
Mr.Met did say one thing right…the Phillies aren’t trading for a front-line starter. They wouldnt’ trade carrasco and marson for CC, so they certainly won’t include them for anyone else. The rotation may be what it’s going to be.
Posted: 08:46 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Yep aparently Pedro Martinez is an ace, John Maine certainly and Oliver ‘command and control’ Perez and Mike Pelfrey well that guys earn’t his spot in the bigs alright.
Granted Pelfrey’s improved but there isn’t daylight between him and Kendrick. Perez would be great if he could control his stuff but he can’t consistenly and Pedro’s done, if he can give a few Schilling like starts that’s great for baseball but it isn’t likely he will. Credit to John Maine who’s become a very solid pitcher but that rotation doesn’t sparke. We have our pitching problems that need to be addressed to establish a better chain between Cole and the back of the rotation but the Mets pitching isn’t deep, it could be but it isn’t.
Message to Mets douche: If you disagree with the above explain why you think the Mets have a rotation of aces, maybe us Phils fans here are stubborn and shortsighted… Or maybe you just have no clue in hell
Posted: 09:21 AM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 Lewisauce
The Mets don’t have aces, but their rotation is better than ours. No question. And we should be scared.
This needs to be made explicitly clear: the Phillies are NOT getting Burnett (he has a no-trade clause with Philly at the top of the “no way” list), Halliday (are you fucking kidding me?), Oswalt (Ed Wade is that stupid, but someone signs his checks, and they won’t let that happen) or Freddy Garcia (too many other serious teams interested). We have B-listers available, including Bedard. The Gillick-Seattle thing scares me, and a trade for Bedard should NOT happen unless we only give up junk and leftovers.
This is the rotation, boys and girls. Our hope is to try to spend big in free agency in the off-season and load up for next year.
Posted: 12:14 PM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I agree they wont have the pitching to win the WS this year. just get a cheap B-list guy and deal with it. that goes against everything i want but its painfully obvious now.
Posted: 12:28 PM on July 16, 2008
Posts: 0 Janett Rossen
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Posted: 12:15 PM on June 14, 2010