Jenkins Might Hold Key To Offense
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, August 18, 2008 11:30 AM | Comments: 57
Posts
I wanted to write about “where the offense went wrong” this season, but there is no theory that the offense actually went wrong. Instead, it seems truer that for a few weeks, the offense was going right.
The good stretch began May 25. At Houston, the Phils pounded the ‘Stros for 15 runs on a Sunday afternoon. At the time the Phils were 28-24 and 2.5 back of the first place Marlins. Down 6-4, they opened up on the Astros bullpen, scoring 11 runs in the sixth and seventh innings. The star of the game? How about the bottom of the order — Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz and Carlos Ruiz went a combined 7-for-15 with seven runs scored.
(The good stretch ended with the 20-run win over Saint Louis June 13.)
That led me to figure out how well the bottom of the order was hitting during the hot streak.
- Geoff Jenkins was hitting .283 after that game, and .275 after the 20-run win. In four days, his average would decrease to .260 and would start losing playing time. Jayson Werth, by the way, was out with an injury during this time.
- Before the May 25 win at Houston, Pedro Feliz was hitting .253. Between May 25 and June 13, he’d raise his average to .271 (season-high) but would dip into the .240s before ending at .261.
- May 25 signified the best day of the season for Ruiz. He was hitting .246 after that game. After, he would slink into the .220s before ending June 13 at .235. The next couple games would see his average fall into the .220s, then .210s, then .200s.
- It was, however, interesting to find out Jimmy Rollins was hitting .321 after the May 25 game in Houston. He also had a very good .894 OPS. By June 13, however, he was hitting just .278 with a .784 OPS. The streak had a reverse effect on Rollins.
- Then there’s this telling stat: Chase Utley was at .303, coming down a little from a hitting tear on May 25. Then he went on his big tear, ending the streak June 13 at .317 with 8 HR during. He’d soon fall out from the .300 club and hasn’t returned since.
Everyone else performed pretty steadily during that period. The two statlines that really jump out are Jenkins and Utley. Both were on a tear during that period, with Jenkins playing pretty well as he got consistent playing time.
Which leads me to this: Could Geoff Jenkins be the offense’s missing piece down the stretch? He hasn’t been used much lately, and mainly because he has struggled. But when he’s given consistent playing time, he responds. He’s hitting under his career norms of .275/.344/.490, so wouldn’t it be possible that if given playing time, he’d revert to those numbers? Or is this an older player wearing down completely?
Maybe Jenkins isn’t enough — and he probably isn’t. But it might not hurt to start him exclusively in the Washington series, especially as the Nats will throw right-handers exclusively to the Phils. Maybe he’s the medicine this offense needs.

















Posts: 0 Don M
All year I’ve been suggesting that its so hard for part-time players to ever get comfortable at the plate, as soon as they get in a groove, they sit for 2-3 games.. If you count him and Werth as one player, the numbers aren’t too bad
142 hits, 562 at bats
.252 Avg
25 Home Runs
72 RBIs
71 Runs Scored
13 Steal, 2 Caught Stealing (+11 Steals)
62 Walks (4 HBP) = .331 On Base Percentage
Obviously, you’d like the batting average to be higher.. but from the guy’s that usually bat 6th in the lineup, that is pretty good production
Posted: 11:58 AM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 That Guy
Jenkins holds the key to my hemmoroids inflamation but that’s probably it.
Posted: 12:12 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
Jenkins certainly needs to step up, but there’s an obvious problem to giving him more playing time…
Who sits?
Victorino’s pretty much been the Phils’ most consistent hitter recently, so he shouldn’t sit. Burrell has struggled a bit, but responded with 2 crucial HRs in the Padres series, and since he’s the premier RH hitter in the lineup, the Phils can’t afford to sit him. And Jayson Werth seems like one of the few Phils who has provided quality at bats recently — he works the count (leading the Phils in pitches per plate appearance at 4.26) and gets on base, something no one else in this lineup has done recently.
I guess you could sit Victorino and Werth one game each this series to get Jenkins some at bats. Whatever the case, Jenkins plain and simply needs to start producing.
Posted: 12:42 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 danny
Nice post Tim. My thoughts:
According to fangraphs.com, the Phillies have 3 of the 25 worst clutch hitters in baseball. They happen to bat 2-3-4 in our line up. (although Vic is now batting 6th sometimes.) I agree that the clutch and WP statistic don’t tell the whole story, but they do empirically express what we all sense: this team does not get timely hitting.
Which is what baseball is all about.
Also, I agree that this is just who this team is. If Rollins has the year he had last year, we probably win 5 more games (who knows). But this team’s record is nearly identical to the one we possessed last year on August 18, thanks to our pitching picking up the slack for a pathetic offense.
By the way, is Milt Thompson DEAD? Can someone verify this? Is he just being propped up in the dug out like Weekend at Bernie’s?
Posted: 01:25 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Don M, I would take those numbers from a 6 hole guy any day. I would bet that if Jenkins played more, and dont get me wrong I like Werth alot, he would put up numbers similar to these.
Posted: 01:53 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
HAS JENKINS EVER BEEN A PART TIME PLAYER?….MAYBE THATS THE PROBLEM….THE PLATOON IN RIGHT AND VICTORINO IN CENTER DEFINATELY HASNT BEEN AS GOOD AS HAVING (DARE i SAY IT),ROWAND IN CENTER AS A STARTER.AND VICTORINO PLATOONING IN RIGHT.
Posted: 02:02 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 NC Jason
Pete Happy is almost back, hopefully he can give the bottom of the order some stability and much needed power
Posted: 02:35 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
I laughed when I saw the title.
Posted: 02:36 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 mick
Good thoughts Tim–My worry with Jenkins is that he is one more free swinger–to go along with a few others that we have–we need grinders–this team as a whole has got to make pitchers work harder–maybe playing time will help Jenkins–who knows–its worth a try
Posted: 02:45 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
my worry with jenkins is that he sucks, hahaha.
Posted: 02:50 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Rowand in Center and Victorino in Right was nice… with them passing on Rowand’s $10 M contract.. they claim they’ll spend that on a Starting Pitcher in the offseason….
Wait and see…if they spend the money, be happy.. IF THEY DON’T… THEN we can hold SELL THE TEAM rallies..
But lets wait and see what they do with the money they’ll have
Posted: 02:55 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 danny
Welcome back Mets bullpen! So good to see you!
Posted: 03:10 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
that might be the biggest reason the phillies still have a chance. the mets bullpen flat out sucks. and they got luis ayala yesterday, who flat out sucks too. hes one of those guys that throws a sinker that doesnt sink, a slider that doesnt slider, and a cutter that doesnt cut.
Posted: 03:18 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 lilgartrn
If anyone hasn’t read Bill Conlin’s article in today’s daily news, it’s too good. Let’s make a liar out of J-Roll and cheer him on tomorrow… See if his idea that our horrid fan skills are the cause of the current slump… I’m thinking not, and hoping for some good play to keep the dream of a post alive. (and hope that it carries over to the dodgers later this week.)
Posted: 03:20 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Instead of “hoping the bats come alive” id prefer them to just assemble a readlly good team, and they didnt really do that.
Posted: 03:25 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 mg52
Jenkins was a solid Brewer. He always seemed to hit well against the Phils. I thought that that good hitting – aside, of course, from the part about hitting against the Phillies – would carry over. He has a good power swing, but would get so much more out of his offensive capabilities if, like everybody else, he shortened up even just a little when coming around with the bat. I think that Jenkins is trying hard but that no one understands that not being aggressive on pitches in the strike zone will doom them.
I missed reading the Daily News today. What did Mr. Conlin say?
Posted: 03:27 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 lilgartrn
Basically called out Rollins and Howard, with a reference to Schmidt’s rail on the fans at the Vet. Made sense, pretty much, step up your play. Funny, LA swept them, can’t put that on the fans, I guess. I, for one, never and will not boo them at CBP, but if they don’t step up the offense, I’m going to stage a silent protest (or go on some Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors, whichever works, lol.)
Posted: 03:31 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I also have NEVER booed them or any phildelphia team at the stadium. ill rip them, but they know what they did. like a bad dog, they dont need to be told by the fans what they did wrong. i undersatnd booing, approve of it, i just personally prefer not to do it.
Posted: 03:35 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
“Welcome back Mets bullpen! So good to see you!”
Duaner Sanchez – 0.0 innings, 1 walk, 3 hits, 2 earned runs on all of 9 pitches.
1.5 games back.
Posted: 04:07 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 tom
the problem isn’t jenkins, werth, or whoever is playing 3rd on a particular day (although i do think getting feliz back will be a big help).
the problem is utley, burrell, rollins and howard are not hitting. best four hitters not getting it done means you’re not going to win too many ball games.
here’s a novel idea, why not put burrell between howard and utley? break up the lefties and force managers to either waste more than one lefty in the late innings or have them pitch to burrell. this was fine last year and earlier this year when utley and howard were hitting…. but since they’re not now this is absolutely killing them in the late innings (last night this happened) because howard is hitting .180 off lefties this year.
Posted: 04:32 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
We still need a long-term option in right field. Werth is a decent player, but as I have said before, i believe he is best-suited to be a 4th outfielder where he can fill in at all 3 positions, and pinch hit and run.
Jenkins is basically a waste. Before the season i though he was over-the-hill, but I thought he might be able to fill in the hole, maybe get 350-400 at bats and be productive (maybe hit .270 with decent power numbers), but was I wrong.
i will write an article, and the title will read “rollins MAY hold key to phillies offense.” i will back that up with this evidence: before april 1st, rollins was batting .500, on pace for 324 hits, 162 homers, 324 runs, 324 rbis, 162 doubles, 0 strikeouts and so on.
Posted: 04:54 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg V.
If Jenkins is the key to our offense, then we really suck!
Posted: 04:57 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 ped
For me, the whole season is on J-Roll’s shoulders not anyone else. The phils are 30-11 when he scores.
The only reason why we’re still in the running: Brad Lidge is a beast
Posted: 05:05 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike B.
I have my doubts that free swinging Jenkins will do much better offensively for the remainder of the year. If you watch him closely when he bats, he consistently fishes after low pitches on whcih he strikes out most of the time. Offensive awakening is going to hinge on Rollins, utley and especially Howard with Howard being the key to the Phillie’.s fortunes the rest of the year.
If Manuel was smart, he would hold Moyer back to start against the Dodgers and let Kendricks pitch against Washington Nats. Would give Moyer some extra rest and would give you a veteran pitcher who would have the experience and pitching knowledge to go against a hot hard-hitting team like the Dodgers. Kendricks was pounded by the Dodgers in his start last week. Moyer’s patient approach to pitching and slower pitching would work against the Dodgers.
Posted: 06:28 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Pat
i gotta agree with nick from earlier in the day. It seems like the phillies never hit off the opposing teams starter. if we can’t hit we need someone that will eat pitches at the very least. Jenkins isn’t that guy.
Posted: 06:47 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Phillies>Mets
I read on MLB Trade Rumors that the Phillies are interested in catcher David Ross. He was recently let go by the Reds.
Posted: 06:49 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
jenkins swings at 3-0 pitches more than any one player i have ever watched. and besides coste, he swings at the first pitch more than any other player.
Posted: 07:43 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike N
This would be a drastic move…but why not bring up Marson and play him? He hits over .300 with an excellent OBP. That would sure help the bottom of the order wouldn’t it? Though 1) who knows if he could work with the pitchers and handle the pressure, and 2) I agree that if the Rollins/Utley/Howard trio doesn’t get going, it doesn’t make a hell of a lot of difference what else they do… That said, isn’t it time for a drastic move?
Posted: 07:47 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
ooh david ross. a .231 hitter who suffered a serious power outage. i agree here, the consesnsus rightly seems to be to bring up marson in september.
Posted: 08:11 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Please no David Ross. How about production from Utley/ Rollins? Anyone?
Posted: 08:40 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Dodgers acquired Greg Maddux from padres.
Posted: 08:45 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
sounds like somebody wants to win
Posted: 08:46 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
I wonder if Maddux nixed any offer or interest from our wonderfull Phills.
Posted: 08:53 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Oh he said months ago he doesnt want to pitch in CBP. he gets shelled there.
Posted: 08:55 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Geoff/ Richie Allen – He wasnt gonna waive his no trade clause unless it was to a contending west coast team, aka the Dodgers. The Phillies are on the west coast by the way. He didnt say anything specific about any teams because that would violate league rules.
Posted: 09:18 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Sabathia just knocked in 2 runs off of Randy Wolf and is also pitching a shutout.
Posted: 09:18 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Michael
I can’t agree with the Jenkins prayer. Someone who strikes out 25% of the time isn’t likely to be an offensive catalyst. I side with ped in his view that Rollins is the key. In addition to the amazing win numbers when he scores, he sprimes the pump. If he doesn’t start hitting soon kiss the season goodbye.
Posted: 09:28 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
I’m back. Everyone can now take a deep sigh of relief.
Posted: 09:33 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Who have you all booed over the years? The only Philly I have ever booed was Jose Mesa.
Posted: 09:37 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Sabathia would be batting 3rd in our lineup.
Posted: 09:38 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
i’ve never booed anyone. only opposing players, reyes, bonds, chipper jones etc.
Posted: 09:48 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Ive never booed anyone. I think its a waste of energy because when they lose and Im there I just get pissed and leave. They know what they did, bad phillies, baaaad.
Posted: 09:56 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Fred
Never booed? That’s unPhiladelphian!
Get off Rollins’ case. Considering last year was an aberration, he is pretty much matching his career averages. Jimmy is what he is. A better than average shortstop and a .270 hitter.
The big guns, Utley and Howard, are killing this team. After two years of .309 and .332 average, Utley’s .284 isn’t getting it done in the 3 hole. (Not to mention he looks like he’s in la-la land land half the time.) Howard’s record setting pace of 162 strikeouts absolutely takes the wind out of the sails in crucial moments. (And I argue strikeouts do count – they’re a momentum killer.)
Between the two, these guys make 17.8 mil. Start earning that jingle.
Posted: 11:09 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 PhilPhan
A lot of you guys should read “Moneyball.” Andrews explains in the book that OBP is wayy more valuable then batting average, and that clutch hitting really doesn’t exist. Interseting stuff, opened my eyes.
And yes Fred, he also says that the strikeout is by far the worst thing you can do in baseball. Way worse than even a ground out.
Bottom Line: The averages aren’t the answer. The phils aren’t getting on base enough.
Posted: 11:26 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Bob Marley
everything is going to be alright.
oh wait, a minute, did u guys say Jenkins is the key? buzzkill. James – pass that over here mAAAHn.
Posted: 11:35 PM on August 18, 2008
Posts: 0 Fred
Alright, let’s talk OBP. Utley’s OBP last year was .410 and this year its .368. Howard had an OBP last year of .390 and this year its .320. A large dropoff on the part of both players.
I think one has to be careful about theories like Moneyball. Certainly it has valuable ideas and interesting thoughts but how many championships has Moneyball produced? None that I know of.
Posted: 09:15 AM on August 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I think the point is this:
We would all like to see them draft well, and develop top young talent, and be able to trade players for additional top talent.. so that you have YOUNG superstars in waiting under your control for 5 years or so.. With that remaining money you are saving, be able to go out and sign established players to contracts, and have them perform as expected.. If you continue those patterns, you keep yourself operating as a winning team for quite some time, and hopefully give yourself a chance to breakthrough and win a World Series.
I wish they would do a better job of those things, just like everyone else does
But Burrell, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Myers, Madson, have all contributed to this team’s rise from the joke of NL East. to one of the top teams in the entire National League… They have Utley locked up, They have Howard and Hamels under their control for 3-4 years still… It will be interesting to see if they resign Burell, and what they do with Myers and Madson in the future.. this team, as currently constructed should have until the end of next season to breakthrough.. if they can’t get it done at that point… step back and make some moves. as Feliz will be gone too, we could be looking at a roster overhaul sooner than later.
Posted: 09:27 AM on August 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I think thats on target there. you gotta fix thier hittin gproblem in the offseason. I think if they had someone reaedy to come up who can legitimately produce for power, then you can let burrell walk but they realy cannot afford to let him go and still have the same potency.
Posted: 09:33 AM on August 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I would be OK with Burrell leaving if they could find a righty that hits .300 with 25 HR and 100 RBI…. Problem is.. those guys are expensive..
We all thought that our infield alone was good for close to 150 HR this year.. Howard 40-50, Utley 30, Rollins 20-30, Feliz 20, Catchers 15-20
If those guys are hitting the long ball, you can get away with speedy outfielders who don’t drive the ball as much as Burrell… If Golson could stop striking out all the time, he would be awesome.. an OF consisting of Werth, Golson, Victorino would be great defensively..
Posted: 09:37 AM on August 19, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
yeah. i think theyre forced into overpaying to keep burrell here. maybe they have money freed up, just maybe, from rowand. but victorino and weth will get raises. lidges contract kicks in next year. so guess what? they alreayd spend that money thats been “set aside” for another starting pitcher. so the question again will be, like it has been, will they INCREASE payroll to get elite starting pitching in here or trade for one?
Posted: 10:16 AM on August 19, 2008