No Assurance Hamels Is Healthy
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, August 04, 2008 09:21 AM | Comments: 78
Posts
I normally don’t cite Bill Conlin, usually because he offers almost nothing groundbreaking in his columns. But his most recent, seen here, brings out a few points worth mentioning.
The crux of the piece is that Pat Gillick isn’t to blame for the lack of movement at the trade deadline. No, Conlin says, blame the ownership (duh) and the fact there’s not much of a farm system to work with (double duh). He also implies the Phillies will be horrendous after Gillick exits at the end of the season. Sorry, Bill, but I’m not writing off the foundation of Utley/Howard/Rollins/Burrell/Hamels just yet.
That leads me to the pitcher in that foundation — Mr. Hamels. Somewhat buried in the column is this little snip:
“They brought up J.A. Happ a second time. Nobody can figure to do what. After two solid starts during Brett Myers’ therapeutic odyssey through three minor league levels, the 6-6 Happ is back, but without anything close to a defined role. Anybody else hear the tick-tick-tick of the annual Cole Hamels DL stay fast approaching?”
That’s not the first time a member of the media has brought up Hamels and the DL. Howard Eskin blabbered earlier in the week that Hamels had an elbow injury. While I and almost everyone takes what Eskin says about the Phils with a half grain of salt, the evidence has piled up.
Hamels’ last two starts were two of his worst this season. He gave up nine runs to the Braves July 26, then five to the Cardinals Friday night. For the first time since May 31 he failed to go seven innings.
He has also logged 160 innings so far this season, a somewhat magic number, as last season he was at 160.2 innings before his final start preceding an elbow injury that sidelined him for a month.
Hamels has denied being hurt. Of course he has. Hamels is a perfectionist, from what we’ve seen, and would never want to admit he’s not doing his job correctly. And he cares about his statistics, his accolades, his money. Pat Gillick said that the team hasn’t negotiated a long-term contract with Hamels because he has yet to pitch a full season without injury. Why would Hamels want to admit injury and go on the DL again? That would keep him from more money.
And it is possible the Phillies know Hamels is hurt and have Happ ready as the contingency plan. It’s possible they’re going to let Hamels try to shake it himself. Looking at how the Phils have handled injuries, they seem to wait until a guy is less than 50 percent before declaring a problem. It’s very likely they’re thinking he can snap out of the pain and return to form. Why risk losing the most important part of the rotation now?
All this is obviously cautionary talk, and none of it is completely base. (We have to remember this.) But we know Hamels’ history, we know his mindset, we know the recent past. We can’t rule out an injury, and as each day turns, it’s becoming even more likely it’s the truth.
Bottom line — his start Thursday against Florida will determine if there is a problem.
















Posts: 0 Geoff
a note: this is why the phillies are the phillies…well, its another exaple of it anyway.
if they know hes hurt then put him on the DL, very simple. its one thing for a position player to play thorugh it. but this is your only respected starting pitcher. if hes hurt at all, IN HIS THROWING ARM, he goes to the 15-day DL immediately. no complaining, no questions asked. if he gets hurt worse their season is over. nice and simple.
Posted: 09:26 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 558 Brian Michael
It is very likely that Hamels is hurt and not saying anything. Remember early last season when he said he was hurt, was placed on the DL, then said “I wish I hadn’t mentioned it.” Tim is right, after that situation, Cole might never admit he’s not doing his job correctly (i.e. injured).
Posted: 09:35 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
That does make sense of why they brought up Happ. They havent used him at all.
Posted: 10:06 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Joey
I think people dont realize everyone theres a difference between being hurt and being injured. probably damn near everyone in the league is hurt this time of year and sometimes it has its affects. maybe he should skip a start if he thinks he could use it, maybe he should pitch through it. only he knows.
Posted: 10:12 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I would go so far as to say right now he’s hurt, but he’s very possibly injured.
Posted: 10:18 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Doug
The way it is explained in the Conlin column, it definitely seems like a fatigue injury. Explaining that he goes ~160 innings each year before this happens just shows that he wears down. As a pitcher in his mid-20′s, this is to be expected.
The only cure for fatigue is rest. They should back him off, have him miss a start or two and throw lightly to try to rehab the strain that 160 innings puts on an arm. Sure, we need him now to try to keep pace with the mets and marlins, but what does getting to the playoffs do if we’re Hamelsless when we get there? Not much!
Posted: 10:21 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don
If they knew Hamels was hurt… they wouldn’t let him pitch. I don’t buy that as the reason Happ is here. I think they brought Happ up, because they didn’t think Myers was going to respond the way he has. If anyone is going to get bounced from the rotation, without the DL being the cause, you would have to assume it would be Kendrick.. BUT this team is in 1st place, and I think you leave the rotation the way it is, unless you need to make a change.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they skipped him on Thursday, both to give him a rest, and to get his pitching back on track. Who would have thought that Myers and Blanton would impress us, and we’d be worrying about Hamels??
On a side note – I know everyone hates Howard Eskin… but again, I really think he gives the most insight and has the most credible sources on all the “sportsreporters” in Philadelphia… he doesn’t say too many things that dont turn out to be true.
Posted: 10:29 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
You still have to give him a contract, but if he gets hurt every year then you have to make sure youre protected. though not at the expense of losing him.
Posted: 10:30 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well, then dont come crying when he goes on the 15-day DL and misses like 2-3 starts. at least theyll have a contingency plan with happ here. its smart to keep happ up here. you have to find innings for him so he doesnt get rusty but at least hell be ready when someone goes down.
now, again, im going to advoacate that in the offseason the phillies need to trade jimmy rollins to the red sox for dice-k. im going to repeat that at least twice a week until the start of next season.
Posted: 10:35 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Has anyone looked at all the waiver-trade trash on the MLBTR list yet? aww man. i dont know where to begin.
but since they only posted the AL so far, ill wait because its easier to get NL guys.
Posted: 10:42 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
Two options:
1. put him on the DL today, right now.
or
2. insert happ this thursday against the marlins, and give hamels 7 days off, and re-evaluate for ONE LAST TIME before his next scheduled start, august 12th.
but, knowing the organization, they’ll do neither.
Posted: 10:51 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Bill
The way Hamels is overthrowing and all of the sudden can not locate his change up means one of two things. He is either hurt, or Brett Myers mental problems are contagious. Seriously, the only other explanation is that he is a perfectionist and has been trying to hard with the result being balls up in the zone.
http://myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum/
Posted: 10:52 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I don’t think Hamels is hurt. I just think he had a couple of rough outings. I will change my mind if he pitches like shit again on Thursday.
Posted: 11:01 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I guess I still don’t really understand waivers..
Why would the Yankees place Giambi, Abreu, Jeter, Pudge, etc on waivers? Obviously they aren’t going to trade them.. so why do they go on waivers in the fist place/??
anyone that could help me understand that, I’d appreciate it
Posted: 11:05 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Don, they’re players that CAN clear waivers. The Yankees wouldn’t let them go to waivers, though.
Players that will clear are expensive guys on teams with not much a shot to contend, but other teams may not want to grab them. Usually the cheap players that go through would get claimed.
Posted: 11:09 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
No I understand that part of it… but are teams required to place certain players on waivers..
Like since the Yankees aren’t trading Derek Jeter while any of us are alive.. why would they place him on waivers.. it doesn’t make sense to me
Posted: 11:11 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
don, just go to mlbtr, pick the top 10 worst names you see on that list. next, take the top 5 from that least that make the least money. then, remove the 3 that make most sense for the phillies to get. last, take the 2 names remaining, and choose who you’d rather have on your team. the guy you didn’t pick will be the one the phillies take.
Posted: 11:13 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I dont get that list either. I think hes saying they could make it through. but i seriously doubt you have to put people on waivers. that would be retarded. man, there is some serious garbage on taht list though. wow. theres like 3 guys who have a chance at getting waived that id even want, because i know the contenders wont waive anybody
Posted: 11:14 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Why are Vernon Wells, Derek Jeter, Jim Thome, Jason Varitek.. etc. all on waivers. There is no chance that their teams would make trades to give them, so is there a method of reasoning as to why players that will not get traded would be placed on waivers.
Carl Pavano of the Yankees.. I can see why you would put him out there.. maybe somebody wants to take a shot on him, and the Yankees would be free of his salary.. so I understand the idea of the waivers, just not the point of having players on waivers, that you have no intention of losing..
Sorry for boring you guys with this. but since its becoming more and more common the past few years in baseball, id like to understand it completely
Posted: 11:16 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
id even accept randy winn at this point, haha. but i wouldnt put it past the phils to inexplicably get an infielder who is NOT a 3b.
Posted: 11:16 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
the only guy on a contender id see being put on waivers is julio lugo. but nobody would claim him. nobody wants that trash
Posted: 11:17 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
hahaha.. Mike, we’ll end up with… Ross Gload from the KC Royals then.
he any good? I’ve never heard of him
Posted: 11:19 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i actually dont know who taht is either. hes so bad he isnt even in mlb08 the show.
Posted: 11:20 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
ahaha, aww man. backup 1b for KC i think: 295AB, 2 HR, 28 RBI, .275 avg. .321 obp, .346 slg. 32 y/o
awww man, thats TERRIBLE
Posted: 11:23 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Don M, he’s saying these are the guys that could clear waivers. He’s not saying they are the guys that are going to be placed on Waivers. We should get Aubrey Huff.
Posted: 11:26 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
yep, ross gload it is. the phillies are in talks with the royals as we speak.
Posted: 11:30 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 OZ
the body needs rest. if this team has half-a-brain (i know, i know), Hamels is TOLD to miss the next start. keep Happ throwing, see how Hamels is in the next start.
Posted: 11:31 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 OZ
i don’t hate Eskin. I actually think he’s sneaky & brilliant, i.e, he throws around the term “fraud” all the time. in reality, if u listen to him, his sports knowledge is rarely in depth, meaning, he’s the fraud.
Posted: 11:32 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Randy Winn would be more beneficial then you think. I think right now though, we dont make any moves off of the waiver wire being that there is trash at pitching and we have Happ just standing around, waiting. We dont need any of these positional players either, Burrell/Victorino/Werth/Jenkins (as much as everyone hates him) is a solid outfield and our infield is great except for the Dobbs/Bruntlett show until Feliz gets back.
No, we are gonna get a catcher. Don’t mention it.
Posted: 11:33 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Eskin is just like foxnews. Certain people tune in because the things he says are so outrageous that it makes people want to listen, and before long they start believing it because if you repeat a lie or a ridiculous statement long enough people will start to believe its true. eskin is notihing new, he just applies it to sports.
i still prefer missanelli. much better program.
example: the phillies will trade jimmy rollins for dice-k in the offseason. the phillies will trade jimmy rollins for dice-k in the offseason, etc….
Posted: 11:36 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
The BoSox wouldn’t trade Dice-K for Rollins. They don’t fuck with their pitching, they just don’t.
Posted: 11:53 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
I’m not saying this is comforting but what if Cole’s just in a bit of a funk. It’s a long season especially for the frontline pitchers where anything worse than 7IP/2ER raises an eyebrow and 6IP/3ER is where the chat begins that the pitchers not on their game. The Happ sitaution is an issue and he either needs to be inserted into the rotation irreguardless or a role needs to be defined in the pen, he has very little time to make an impact for next years rotation as there’s nothing to suggest Moyer won’t be there and we need to putting it politely… Shit or get off the pot with the kid.
As for Cole hopefully we is just suffering mid-season fatigue and needs some space to pitch through, remember Brandon Webb was pitching with a dead arm and didn’t go to the DL but has returned to form. If it is a DL trip then make the move but skipping a start might upset his routine. The focus has to be decent production from the 2 and 3 spots and sustainsed consistency from the back-end so Cole doesn’t have to worry about laying it on the line at this point in the year.
With his contract we need to lock him up to a market value deal regardless of his health or we run into Howard territory where Cole starts to loose his affection for being in Philly. As for the point about ownership we don’t have to massively increase the payroll but we do need a massive increase in the draft and foreign recruitment fund where don’t spend the kind of money the teams that have a surplus of bluechips do. We also need to start appreciating the farm, there’s some real decent prospects in A+/AA that get dismissed when the overall state of the farm gets critisized.
Posted: 11:55 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i know, but they need a shortstop BADLY. i would slide in tehre at the winter meetings and ambush epstein with a proposal. dice-k would be a cy young candidate in the NL.
Posted: 11:55 AM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Dice-K is really overrated. His k/bb ratio is atrocious.
Posted: 12:06 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
I would throw in a prospect also and go after Jon Lester. They also have an effective Knuckleballer in their farm system.
Posted: 12:08 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
he does walk a lot. but hed be an effective number two. lester would be an awesome number 2, but im pretty sure that he is more untouchable than dice-k
Posted: 12:10 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
We should get Beckett too while we’re at it… if they would give up Dice K for Rollins, we can probably get Lester and Papelbon for Werth and Kendrick??
You guys are f-ing insane
Posted: 12:18 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
yeah, that’s a little too wishful.
Posted: 12:22 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
the point is, you can probably pry away one of their better pitchers for jimmy rollins because boston has an endless supply of pitching and they desperately need a legitiamte shortstop. they cant give away julio lugo. in the offseason, theyll probably pay him to go away and then cut him.
don m.. im going to keep repeating the idea of trading jimmy rollins to boston/the AL and come up with ridiculous trades to the american league for the offseason until it materializes out of nowhere in december or until it annoys every single person on this blog, or until i go through all of the teams.
if you truly want to play moneyball then you trade the expensive guy knowing that the young cheap guy (donald can take his place next season without so much of a dropoff that theyll suffer greatly from it), the oakland A’s do shit like that all the time and it works just fine, same with florida. no, but we hang onto out j-rolls UNTIL THEIR VALUE DECLINES instead of maximizing your return. florida made a brilliant move by unloading carbrera and willis. absolutely brilliant.
Posted: 12:30 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
I agree that Dice-K is overrated.
But, here’s the other thing about Dice-K. So long as he’s not hurting the team the Red Sox are gonna keep him. If he’s 10 over 500 as a starter like this year, even more so. Why? Because Dice-K is as much of a business decision for the Sox as it is a baseball decision. The level of publicity nationally and more so internationally that this guy gets just increases his own value, and then in return the value of the Red Sox. It’s a team very concerned with it’s marketing image etc. There is absolutely no chance we’d get Dice-K for Rollins this offseason. Zilch. Nada.
Posted: 12:44 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Rick
Maybe the Phils take a look at Greg Zaun from the BJs?
Posted: 12:45 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Joe Durbin
I know everyone is stuck in the old days and think pitchers should be able to go the distance, well most cannot anymore and won’t be able to.
I did not read any of the above statements and maybe this was already covered.
As I watched Charlie mount on not only the innings but the pitches thru the first half with the 110 and above pitch counts, it brough back memories of how The Royals over used Chad until surgery was needed.
I have been wandering when we might see any of the results of the overuse, and have watched lately as Hamel did not look as sharp, myself wandering if there was any beginnings of an injury.
Let’s hope the ice is the usual and someone got a great photo.
Posted: 12:57 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Im still going to keep promoting the idea of moving rollins. victorino can do what he does at the plate and on the bases for cheaper. if this team keeps talking about how it needs to adhere to a budget and how they cant afford things, then lets see them play real moneyball and trade rollins, knowing they have people who can replace him for cheap at the shortstop position.
Posted: 01:04 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2008/08/innings-caps.html
good link about pitcher abuse of young arms. look whos at the top of the list, in the red. hamels…
Posted: 01:06 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
reading that makes me think hamels should be shutdown for a few starts to conserve himself. they can afford to let happ start once or twice in my opinion to give hamels a rest.
Posted: 01:16 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruce
I have had the same kind of question in mind as Don M regarding the practice of putting some of the best players on waivers. Tim , Mike T, Phil and others have not answer directly as to why this is done with ” NO intention of losing” those all star players. That part of waiver practice does not make sense to me (or to Don M).
Thanks Geoff; I had another laugh on your proposed trade: Rollins for Dice-K. You sure can come up with some doozies (laughing).
If Hamels is “injured”, that would be most evident to the manager and players with or without the pitcher’s disclosure. Common sense tells you the Phillies wouldn’t take any unnecessary risk with their no.1 pitcher and depending on the type of injury, DL would be the logical decision. I think Hamels like all pitchers is going through a stretch (slump) in finding adjustments for better command and pitch selection.
The other possibility is what one poster here suggested when he mentioned Bill Conlin’s article…”fatigue” may be a factor with a total of 160 plus innings pitched for Hamels. Management has monitored Hamels and his total innings since the start of the season. They are fully aware of Hamel’s track record of past seasons. It may be time now to give Hamels a rest (skip a start).
I for one enjoy reading Bill Conlin’s articles and have done so for many years. His accumulated knowledge from covering sports in general and Phillies in particular for over 48 years (including 37 world series) has resulted in various awards for his column writing such as the “Pennslvania Sportswriter of The Year”. His satirical wit and descriptive use of words make him stand apart from the generic writers.
He made a valid point that few if any here picked up on..
“The sellers giving up future Hall of Famers on career down-ticks want major league-ready prospects who have survived the high-minors crucible. They want them gifted and they want to have those golden years before arbitration and free agency.
That left the Phillies with one realistic, tradeable, option from the varsity – Shane Victorino. Fans, you didn’t want to see a Phillies outfield next month without him in it. Nor did you want to go into a stretch drive with untested Greg Golson and his high strikeout ratio as your centerfield anchor.”
The point he makes is the contenders “playing in the present tense” were looking for prospects who can contibute immediately in their lineup. The Phillies’ double AA prospects Carrasco, Marson , Donald, etc are not “major league ready”. And I’m sure glad Gillick didn’t trade Victorino.
Posted: 01:21 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Conlin susually doesnt defend gillick, so tahts a little surprising. conlin is anice and practical, so i dont mind him. i hate those bottom-feeding eagles suckups they trot out there though on DNL. domowich and the like. theres like 20 of them and all of them make me sick. the eagles are a pitiful, failing, losing franchise. they havent ever won a superbowl and until they do, they do not deserve my attention and respect. they have NO tradition of excellence that fans can be proud of, and they dont treat their players OR their fans with dignity and respect. they disgust me.
the other 3 teams in this city have at least won something in their history, and the friggin arena league team steps right in and wins a championship before the eagles do too, hahahahha.
in the offseason, when you have the time to adjust to a big trade, why NOT trade jimmy rollins?
id actually argue that hes mroe tradeable than any “star” on their roster and id rather keep ryan howard than him. if youre worried about him having a bounce back year, then trade him to the american league.
heres the thing i need to be clear: trading him and myers shoudl be done at th winter meetings when you can sit down and make a really really good trade and talk things out in person with the other GMs. the phillies desperately need to NOT hire ruben amaro.
Posted: 01:36 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Geoff, maybe you should “keep promoting the idea of moving Rollins” to the Phillies ownership, because I personally think that its not the greatest move in the world to trade your MVP, Gold Glove ShortStop… and bring up Jason Donald.. who, for some reason, you don’t think is that much of a drop-off from Jimmy Rollins.
Nobody said that the Phillies need to play moneyball.. and the fact is that a lot of good teams, namely the NL CENTRAL AND NL EAST leaders.. don’t subscribe to that theory, because the A’s have won ZERO World Series titles… it works to keep them competitive, but thats about it. The whole MONEYBALL concept is really about indentifying which stats you find important… in that case its ON BASE PERCENTAGE.. most other teams think its worthwhile to pay the guys that can drive in runs and play with heart, not just certain stats…
AND … the RedSx just paid like $100 million total to sign Dice-K.. he’s going nowhere.. and if people weren’t initially on-board with trading Jason Donald for a Lefty-Reliever….how can anyone think its smart to trade Jimmy Rollins for a Lefty-Reliever..
oh yea… 61-50… I’m happy with how this team is playing lately!
Posted: 01:42 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
“Why not trade Jimmy Rollins?”
Because:
1. He’s your leadoff hitter.
2. He was the MVP!!! last season.
3. He won a Gold Glove at ShortStop (probably the most important defensive position in baseball…unless you count Catcher…but that can’t be since you all want to DFA Carlos Ruiz, eventhough he is one of the best defensive catchers in the NL)
4. He is signed to a very team-friendly contract for a few more years.
5. Jason Donald is not ready to replace Rollins in any of those points listed above.
Posted: 01:45 PM on August 4, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
actually, the phillies said they have a “budget” that they cant comepete with the big spenders. so im calling them out, youre going to claim you cant afford to sign an elite starter in the offseason, arent you amaro? you want me to believe you? trade jimmy rollins, an expendable punk.
it would be one thing if he has shown EFFORT this year, but he hasnt even looked like hes trying. i was crushing shane victorino but at laest when he was in a slump he TRIED to get out of it. it doesnt even look liek rollins is exerting effort at all
PS..the marlins play a form of moneyball and they have won 2 championships in the past 11 years.
Posted: 01:46 PM on August 4, 2008