Trade Deadline Post-Mortem: A Lot Of Ifs
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, August 01, 2008 03:10 PM | Comments: 24
Posts
One full day after the non-waiver trade deadline, and the Phillies still don’t have any additions to the 25-man roster. Ha-ha.
Looking back at all the available players and the rumored deals, I’m not too upset the Phillies didn’t make a deal. But it’s not the make-a-deal or not-make-a-deal issue that matters here.
As the season has unfolded, the holes have appeared.
- They have a thin, mediocre starting rotation without a strong, dominant starter to back Cole Hamels.
- They have a great bullpen that will weaken, has weakened, and needs a reinforcement or two.
- They have an inconsistent offense that needs one or two experienced hitters to level the home run boom.
They’re not huge holes, really, but big enough holes that they will become badly noticeable as the season winds down.
The Phils attempted to patch the first by acquiring Joe Blanton, a move that has already been wildly criticized. Personally, I was hoping the Phils would’ve focused more on Rich Harden, but his injury record scared them. Considering the Cubs’ package for Harden and the Phils’ package for Blanton, a bounty of Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman and either Greg Golson or Dominic Brown could’ve worked. Maybe.
Blanton isn’t enough. I wrote that before. Now, maybe Brett Myers becomes a top starter very quickly, but I doubt it. As it stands the Phils have a No. 1 starter and four No. 4 starters. Not playoff worthy.
The pressing issue with making a big move was the duet of Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson, the Phils’ top pitching and hitting prospects this season. The Phils didn’t want to give them up, and that’s fair. I probably would’ve given up Carrasco if it meant a top pitcher such as CC Sabathia or Harden. But that’s it. They didn’t need Matt Holliday, didn’t need Manny Ramirez. Those moves shake you up much worse than you’d think.
The real problem was the offseason, when the Phils could’ve signed LHP Ron Mahay. Instead they felt weird dangling the Royals a top prospect. (By the way, I wasn’t too against trading Jason Donald for him. They’ll probably have to trade Donald at some point, and Mahay was the best LOOGY outside Damaso Marte.) They should’ve went after these pieces in the offseason. Pat Gillick said he really wanted a LOOGY. He missed his chance and paid for it by not having what it took to trade for one.
The Phillies farm system is shallower than most, so it makes sense that they couldn’t mortgage the farm. I’m sorry, but Holliday wasn’t guaranteeing a world championship, and that’s the only way I’ll accept giving away the top prospects.
So now what? Probably a trade or two and a waiver claim or two. Look for a bat or two to join. Look for a reliever to find his way on board. Is that enough? Not sure.
What would’ve been enough? Going hard after Sabathia or Harden with one of Carrasco or Marson (or maybe less?) and signing that left-handed reliever in the offseason. Those were the moves to make. They did neither, settling on a back-end starter (while giving up two top prospects), hoping for either Myers or JA Happ to strike gold, banking on the bullpen to hold together and thinking the offense will remain consistent until October.
Those are lot of ifs.
Posts: 0 Geoff
very well stated. i dont know what theyre doing up there but they better be reayd to pounce when a waiver-trade comes up or else they might now even make the playoffs, which would be inexcuseable.
Posted: 03:19 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Nice job Tim. I think we’re beating a dead horse here. I just want to move on and hope that we can get on a roll. I dont expect the Mets to keep up their pace, but i expect the Marlins to make a serious run. I think I hate the marlins more than the Mets. At least the Mets fans give a shit about their team. Dolphin Stadium is still 3/4 empty every night and all their team does every 3 years or so is win a WS.
Posted: 03:30 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
apparently they were working on some 3 team deal for a 4th starter acc to zolecki. interesting. wonder who it was and why they cant get him this month
Posted: 03:31 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I think that winning 5 games in a row should already count as being on a roll !!!… if they lose 2 in a row, we all freak out… they win 5 in a row, and I think im the first to say that today.. “5-wins-in-a-row”
And I could care less who those wins are against, because they all count the same in the standings, and you can only beat who you’re playing that day..
Posted: 03:36 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Yea i hate that they say there was trade talks, but can’t mention who it was… I was hoping that one of the national guys, like Jayson Stark, or Buster Olney would have said who-to-who-to-who was the possible three team trade..
it will probably slip-out in the coming weeks (THATS what she said…)
Posted: 03:37 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
none fo those guys that they list on mlbtr in the post seemed to really get me too excited though.
Posted: 03:42 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
ou tof this: Tim Redding, Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd, Josh Fogg, and Livan Hernandez.
if someone held a gun to your head and made you take one in a trade, whod you take?
Posted: 03:42 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
redding, washburn. thats a rough list.
Posted: 03:47 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Jeffrey
“Hey Taguchi, scoot over to make room on the bench for your new teammates, Russell Branyan and Randall Simon!”
Posted: 03:52 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 pb
I think they should call Swindle back up but this time actually use him as a LOOGY. Not like the first time when they used him in garbage time. I’ve only seen one hard hit base hit by a left hander off him (stephen drew) the other 2 were bloop type hits off this curve ball. I say give him another shot strickly as a LOOGY and have him rarely use his curve strickly go fastball, slider
Posted: 03:59 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Vernon Dozier
I think Gillick has had the team treading water for three seasons. He didn’t have any sort of plan or long term vision. It’s been patchwork the entire way, with some huge mistakes (Eaton, Gordon, Garcia). The nucleus of this team is still the players left from the Wade regime. I hope the next guy (Amaro?) will actually put some sort of plan into place.
Posted: 04:15 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
give me tim redding so he doesnt hurt us later this year.
Jeff made me laugh with that..that was pretty well thought out
Branyan with the Phillies
in 7 games.. he had 9 at bats..
2 hits, both were Home Runs.. 5 RBIs… 6 Ks..
FEAST-OR-FAMINE… I think one of those was a walk-off winner too??
Posted: 04:22 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
the big failure that screwed up their plan was garcia. he had been a 20 game winner before, he was a big game pitcher, he was going to be the man. taht screwed up gillicks mojo and i think he got wierd after that. that was the critical time. i really think if freddy garcia had worked out we would be in a much better position than we are now.
Posted: 04:25 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
that was such a traumatic event, the freddy garcia saga
Posted: 04:25 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
livan hernandez got DFA’d, but youd have to be pretty desperate to go after him, that old man.
Posted: 04:31 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
Why wasnt Freddy Garcia in the Wall Of Shit the other day…he is my #1 Shit ever…took the hope right out of me..
Posted: 04:33 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
Lets hava a sceance and try to bring back Ty cobb and Grover Cleveland Alexander….Gillick cant screw those guys up.
Posted: 04:40 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
I thought they were converting Bastardo down down in Reading to the bullpen, why not give him a try as a LOOGY, I used to here good things about him. Heck, he has to throw harder than that 46 mph ball that Swindle throws. I still think a lefty will get through waivers and Gillick will jump on him. But look at what we are talking about acquiring a lefty specialist, what is he good for one out a game. Management makes me laugh, we are supposed to be all happy if we can acquire a guy who can get an out when they pinch hit a left handed batter against our right handed starter. How about making a real splash for once!!
Posted: 04:48 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
I really hope they try and pull Cashman from the Yankees and not give Ruben Amaro the job. I have a lot of faith in Mike Arbuckle, he seems like a good talent evaluator, but Amaro seems like he don’t know his *** from a hole in the wall. Plus, Cashman and Epstein from the Red Sox are on the last years of their contracts.
Posted: 04:51 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Cashman sucks… he regularly has the highest payroll in baseball, and doesn’t win with it..
I think Arbuckle is a very good talent evlauator.. and so does the rest of baseball, if you look him up and stories about him..
I think Bastardo started the year in A-ball… made his way up to AA-Reading and then got hurt… he is far from ready to pitch to major league hitters
Posted: 05:01 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 philsphan
Mahay is left handed, but not a loogy. Romero is more of a loogy than Mahay or Marte.
Posted: 06:06 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
the phillies are cheap and they overvalue talent.
there is always a lot of “ifs.” every year they spit this bullshit out and expect us to believe that they did everything they could to get a top player in here. the reason no trades were made was because they don’t want to give up prospects for players that can help us win now, because the price tag is much higher. the prospects have to be in the organization for years and they won’t get the big paycheck until the leave, while trading for a sabathia means they will have to pay him next season, or he leaves to get his big paycheck somewhere else. that to me is bullshit – they always go with the low-cost move like bringing in lohse, moyer (even though he has been a steal) or blanton, because they don’t end up costing the team a huge paycheck the next season. lets just continue to be a top 5 market in baseball and keep our payroll around the middle of the pack and be “competitive” instead of going for the gold this year, or in the next couple years.
the phillies organization has a long-standing track record when it comes to overvaluing talent as well, and that is exactly what they did AGAIN. in the mean time, utley, howard, rollins and the rest aren’t getting any younger. if golson, marson and carrasco are so valuable that we can’t trade them to go for the world series this year, then bring them up to the majors so we can all see what we have. why did the phillies sign taguchi and jenkins instead of bringing up golson?? obviously they didn’t think enough of golson to give him a roster spot, but he is so “untouchable” that they sign 2 stiffs to play in the outfield. it really makes you think about things.
if you want to win you have to take a shot sometime, and that means parting with these “untouchable” players, even if it means that you will have to pony up with a big paycheck this year or next.
Posted: 07:37 PM on August 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Vernon Dozier
The Phillies have the fifth highest payroll in the NL, so you can’t really say they’re cheap (unless you’re a parrot and enjoy repeating things Howard Eskin says over and over again).
You can say they they’ve made some bad decisions on where they’ve spent their money – a seven year contract to Thome when they were bidding against nobody, awful deals to Eaton & Gordon, $10 million to Garcia when most of baseball knew he had arm problems from the previous season.
The Phillies are spending proportionally to their revenue stream, which is fine. They just don’t spend wisely. The Rockies made it to the WS last year with a payroll less than half of what the Phillies spent, because they actually had a farm system that was producing good young players.
Posted: 11:46 AM on August 2, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
Thank you, Vernon.
The whole Phillies are cheap argument is just tired and uneducated.
Posted: 12:21 PM on August 2, 2008