Commentary: 2007 Looks Like Luck
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, September 11, 2008 01:20 PM | Comments: 33
Posts
Hate to be a negative Nancy here …
There’s all this talk about how tight the 2008 Phillies look. How much they try to force things. How they’re trying to win games on one swing.
Phil Sheridan says they have to find 2007′s magic potion again. A lot of people are saying they need to find that potion.
All this, in a way, disturbs me, because it shows that 2007 is becoming more and more some blip on the radar. That what happened last season isn’t indicative of who this team really is.
Look at the Division Series against the Rockies. The fold job there resembles the 2008 team so much more. They pressed, they tried to win on one swing. Then I go back to 2006, a year they were forever huddled in second place, scraping for a lost Wild Card berth. That team was 22-23 in one-run games. That team had tired players doing tired things late (I recall a lot of vitriol toward Jeff Conine and a bullpen that had exhausted its gas). The 2005 team — pretty much the same idea.
What happened last season was more luck than anything — that a team in first place by seven games would collapse so heavily is something that happens once in a Haley’s comet.
We have to face the facts — this Phillies club, as assembled and managed, is good enough to win 88 games, max. And this year, like most, 88 ain’t doing it.
Posts: 0 Jason
Tim,
I read you daily, multiple times a day.
Things are bad, but lets lose ONE GAME to the Brewers before you throw yourself an Internet pity party.
Let’s have a breakdown of this series we are about to enter with a lot of the same problems we have.
Sack the f*ck up.
Posted: 01:31 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 President of Mets Nation
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted: 01:33 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I said yesterday that this team… as currently assembled and managed.. should EASILY have 5 more wins than they do.. and could EASILY win 95 games.
Pitching has been more consistent than their hitting, which NOBODY saw coming… but we’ve seen how good this team can be offensively when they get going…
im holding out hope that they will still peak before the year is over. Yea the clock is ticking, but time hasn’t run out yet.. and until its over, it ain’t over
Posted: 01:57 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 EastFallowfield
Most differences between fairly evenly matched teams come down to luck.
Everyone should read “The Drunkard’s Walk”.
“Mathematics tells us that in a best-of-seven series the inferior team will win about four times out of ten. The odds of the better team winning improve if we lengthen the series. Still, in this example, for the weaker team to be crowned champion 5 percent or less of the time (the standard for “statistical insignificance”) a championship series would have to be 269 games long.”
Posted: 02:03 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Thanks for the kick, Jason, but I’m just being bluntly honest. I’m hoping for a big series here against the Brewers, just as you are. And I’ll be there following it (I’m going tomorrow and Saturday). But as I’ve followed this team, the same trends continue, and they copy the trends of 06, of 05. I hope I’m wrong. I really do.
Posted: 02:04 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
See, I get these weird thoughts in my head, like maybe they want to do something dramatic like last year, Jimmy loves the drama you know, and they will just turn it on, 8-10 runs a game, no need to sweat the pitching, they’ll cover it. Then I come back down to Earth.
Posted: 02:07 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 David, the Mets fan from Queens
Even I, as an avid Mets fan, would not discount the Phillies in this race. Surely, when one’s team is down 3.5 games with only seventeen to play, one tends to get nervous or at least anxious. I agree with Jason when he says that you should wait at least one game, or even after the entire series with the Brewers before you discount your team out of the playoff hunt. If you were to somehow sweep or take two out of three from the Brewers, you’d be clinging onto the hope-rope. If you were to get swept, well there is next year granted that global warming doesn’t somehow affect our way of life enough to see to discontinue professional sports. Since the Mets have an off-day today, I’ll be watching the Phillies-Brewers showdown at Citizen’s Bank. I hope I get that MLB Extra Innings sends me the FSN Wisconsin feed because listening to Gary Matthews is as bad or if not worse than listening to Keith Hernandez.
Posted: 02:07 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Sarge is awesome, I love him, just because he’s not like every other announcer- change, baby, change is good.
Posted: 02:10 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Mark
Tim have you done the numbers??? If the Mets play .500 ball for the rest of the year, what would get the Phillies in? If the Mets go 10-7, how many games would the Phillies have to win to get in?
I am a Die-hard Met fan and I know none of this matters because last year we were doing the math everyday and the percentages were always in a favor, but in the end it was the Phillies gettting in and not the Mets.
Just Curious though.
Posted: 02:37 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
Sarge is a weird dude but enjoyable.
As longas chris wheeler gets fired i will be happy
Posted: 02:39 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
Mark,
The phils would have to go 13-3 the rest of the way to force a tie if the Mets go 10-7
Posted: 02:58 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Mark
Yeah that makes sense… wow didn’t realize the math was the easy… Thanks man… Let go Mets.
Posted: 02:59 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Smith
If the Mets go 8-9, the Phillies will have to go 11-5 just to tie them. If the Mets go 10-7, the Phillies will have to go 13-3 just to tie them. The way the Mets look, they will probably go 12-5 over their next 17, which means the Phillies have to now go 15-1 just to tie.
Posted: 02:59 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
Is this a realistic finish for this team?
3-1 vs Brewers
3-0 vs Braves
2-1 vs Fish
2-1 vs Braves
3-0 vs Nats
Posted: 02:59 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Smith
Bull – not a realistic finish with the state of the pitching staff.
Posted: 03:01 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Smith
2-2 vs Brewers
2-1 vs Braves
2-1 vs Fish
2-1 vs Braves
2-1 vs Nats
That’s the best we can hope for. That’s 10-6.
Posted: 03:02 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Smith
Which means you better hope the Mets go 7-10. But that won’t happen.
Posted: 03:03 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
The brewers on the other hand have a tough go assuming we take 3 of 4
1-3 vs Phils
1-2 vs Cubs
2-1 vs Cincy
2-1 vs Pit
1-2 vs Cubs
That would make them 7-9 with our 13-3 we pass the Brewers, and I think 13-3 would be better than the Astros finish, unless they are this years Rockies
Posted: 03:04 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
I don’t believe it is realistic either with our pen and clutch hitting. 10-6 wont cut it for the wildcard either unless we sweep the brewers
Posted: 03:06 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Phils2008
Bull- its possible anything can happen
Posted: 03:08 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Fred
Let’s not forget the Stros. They’re 9-1 in the last ten and have the same record as the Phils. I say the Stros have the advantage after the Brewers for the wildcard, especially the way they’re playing. The revenge of Ed Wade.
Posted: 03:17 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Real Mets Fan
As I said before. The Phillies Did not win the division in 2007. It was the Mets that LOST the division. The Phillies only won by default. Not to take anything away from the Phillies, but the facts are the facts. The Phillies played 500 baseball in the month of September, while the Mets Played sub 500. If your team is hoping for another collapse, keep hoping. It is NOT going to happen. Hoping for another collapse is a looser mentality. Championship teams win games when they absolutely have to(like the Mets). They don’t loose games and hope the 1st place team lost as well so they don’t loose ground(like the Phillies). Listen I’m not saying the Mets are a great team. There NOT. They’re just good enough to win this division. As I also said before, may the worst team loose. It seems as of now the Phillies are the worse team. Sorry to say it but LETS GO METS.
Posted: 03:25 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
I’m sure that would be the happiest day of Wade’s life, and why not?
Posted: 03:26 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Aaron Rowand
You guys are done … concentrate on football … the rest of the season is going to be just one big disappointment
Posted: 03:40 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Aaron Rowand
bull you are smoking some strong stuff … 13-3??? U need Delgado to win that many games and last time I checked he plays on the 2008 East Division Champs
Posted: 03:43 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Fred
It’s so nice of you Aaron to take time out of your busy day to visit us. By the way, how are your Giants doing?
Posted: 03:47 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
Aarond i was asking if people thought that was realistic because that is probably what it is going to take…not that they can or can not do that. And i am sure those were the same comments some idiot mets fan made last year at this point before they completely collapsed
Tonight we close the gap 3 and 3 (East and WC)
I sure hope for the city of new york the mets don’t collapse because the ny bridge cant hold everyone that will jump off.
Posted: 03:53 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Been saying it for a while, you can’t waste that many good pitching performances and expected to see October. The Phils are very rarely able to rebound during a game when the opposing team re-takes the lead yet the Phils have lost enough games as a result of this for it to be a problem.
Forget teams like the Cubs who are the leagues ’08 lovechild, the Dodgers or Astros making late runs but we have to look to teams like the Angels, Red Sox and even the Twins and to an extent the Rays. What is it thats making these teams competitive year on year? They loose games but they have a self assurance they will win enough games and the discipline to not blow too many games, I think the common factor with the successful teams is they know they’ll loose games but they expect to win and their prospects seem to face less pressure when called up. Bulcholz hasn’t fit his billing yet but Red Sox nation don’t seem to be savaging him like Phils nation does with Carrasco.
Posted: 03:55 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Aaron Rowand
Hey bull … enjoy your 2007 East Division Champs T shirt … this is 2008 …
Posted: 04:18 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
aaron, if i was a muts fan i wouldnt start printing any shirts just yet for 2008…
Posted: 04:25 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Don’t underestimate the Nats… they’ve been playing REALLY GOOD baseball lately, and the past two games vs. NY have been close. Hopefully they’ll grab a game today and a couple in DC when the Mets visit next week.
Posted: 04:31 PM on September 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
“Don’t underestimate the Nats… they’ve been playing REALLY GOOD baseball lately, and the past two games vs. NY have been close. Hopefully they’ll grab a game today and a couple in DC when the Mets visit next week.”
EDIT: Nats don’t play the Mets today
Posted: 04:34 PM on September 11, 2008
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