NLDS Preview Part I : Starting Pitching
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, September 29, 2008 02:10 PM | Comments: 33
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We begin our seven-part look at the NLDS.
Part I : Starting Pitching
Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA, 196 K, 53 BB)
Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55 ERA, 163 K, 65 BB)
Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.71 ERA, 123 K, 62 BB)
Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69 ERA, 111 K, 66 BB)
Jeff Suppan (10-10, 4.96 ERA, 90 K, 67 BB)
CC Sabathia (17-10, 2.70 ERA, 251 K, 59 BB)
Manny Parra (10-8, 4.39 ERA, 147 K, 75 BB)
Dave Bush (9-10, 4.18 ERA, 109 K, 48 BB)
The Phils and Brewers have very similar rotations. They feature one bona-fide ace and a few guys stirring in the mid-rotation level. All of the eight can go six innings and give up two runs. All can also go three and give up eight runs.
For the Brewers, all talk begins with Sabathia, who should beat the Phillies. He has great stuff — velocity on his fastball and good breaks on his secondary stuff. Unless the Phils can hang with him and force their bullpen, it’ll be a tough to take any game with Sabathia in there.
The Crew has just one lefty: Parra. He couldn’t get out of the second against the Phillies Sept. 13. He is a strikeout lefty, which means a pressing Ryan Howard and Chase Utley could prove fatal for the Phils in that game. Still, he is ultimately beatable, even if the lefties don’t necessarily show up. Just look for the fastball.
Of the righties, Suppan and Bush could pose easy targets for the Phils bats … they could also be very difficult. In Suppan’s Sept. 14 start, the Phils torched him for six runs in 3.2 innings, but the righty has a full arsenal of pitches, and will throw anything to win (see Moyer, Jamie). Bush gave Milwaukee a quality start earlier that day, going six and giving up three runs, but he’s a fastball-curve guy who the Phils could knock around.
The Phils will open with Hamels, who has had mixed results against Milwaukee. Prince Fielder has a bunch of hits off Hamels this season — including two home runs. If he can keep Fielder at bay, he should win. Myers was brilliant against the Brewers, but his last two starts were atrocious. If he doesn’t keep his fastball down, it’ll be a long day.
The deciding factors, to me, are Moyer and Blanton. The Brewers should have trouble against a crafty Moyer. Blanton could destruct against a Milwaukee offense looking for fastballs, so Kentucky Joe has to keep the ball down and mix up his pitches.
Analysis: To be straight, I’m unsure about the Milwaukee rotation. It’s Sabathia and innings-eaters. Sure, it resembles the Phillies rotation, but the Phils have demonstrated a good amount of success against them. Suppan does have playoff experience, but he’s 5.42 away from Miller Park, has an ERA over 8.00 in September and has a 5.37 ERA in the daytime. We talk about Hamels’ day splits — this ain’t no picnic at all. Suppan is your classic league-average pitcher who parlayed his moderate success into big bucks, a la Carlos Silva.
Meanwhile, Parra scares me in that he can be dominant for stretches, but the Phils showed that he’s hittable. And he’s especially hittable the second time around. From the fourth inning on, batters are hitting over .300 consistently. He’s barely a six-inning pitcher. So while the Phils have lefties (hitting .233 against him), Pat Burrell, Pedro Feliz, Shane Victorino and the like should be successful once they see what he has in his arsenal.
It is possible the Brewers go with Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.88 ERA, 20 K, 8 BB) instead of Parra. Gallardo is a very good young pitcher capable of going deep into games. He carries a fastball in the low-mid 90s and a curveball that at times can be devastating. Is he beatable? Yes, with patience. Can the Phillies beat him? Maybe.
Bush doesn’t give me any willies whatsoever. Of course, Sabathia does, so that’s a wash. I do think this series will come down to Parra in game three, if that’s the matchup. And I do think the Phils will beat him.
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
I believe the Brew Crew yanked Parra from the rotation after his disastrous Sept. 13 start at CBP. I have a feeling we’ll see Gallardo instead — whatever pitch count he may be on, he’d immediately become their second best starter. And between abusing Sabathia and rushing Gallardo back from ACL surgery, Milwaukee’s shown that they’ll mortgage anything to win now.
An absent Sheets is a huge break for the Phils. Assuming Sabathia pitches Game 2, the Phils will have to win Game 1 behind Hamels, but that’s eminently doable against the above pitchers.
Posted: 02:38 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 R.Mac
I think this series is going to hing on which Brett Myers shows up. If we take an L to CC in Game 1 and he isn’t dominant in Game 2 then its OVA. That being said here’s to heading to Milwaukee up 2-0. Go Phils!
Posted: 02:42 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 R.Mac
oh wow….just saw CC is going game two….disregard my previous post….haha wow
Posted: 02:44 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
R.Mac: it looks as if CC will go Game 2.
Friar: Dale Sveum has expressed going with Parra instead because of the Phils lefties. But no announcement has been made yet.
Posted: 02:44 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Kyle
R Mac – where do you see that press release, re-Sabathia in 2? Does anyone know how the other spare parts of their rotation stack up? Is it Suppan in 1 and Gallardo in 3?
Posted: 02:50 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
Tim: thanks, I hadn’t heard that. The Brewers’ rotation is certainly a riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma (thanks, Winston). Even considering that he’s a lefty, I’d much rather see Parra than Gallardo (who dominated the Phils in a start last year). Sveum would be doing us a solid by sending Manny out there instead.
We find out playoff rosters by 10 a.m. on Wednesday, right?
Posted: 02:51 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Wednesday is the deadline. So yes, 10 a.m.
I edited to include Gallardo, in case he were to be called upon.
Posted: 02:53 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
i read in an earlier post that milwaukee is really us from last year…
couldn’t agree more
their season is already a success just for makin it to the dance…
if we cant get out of the NLDS then our season is a failure right?
that being said our boys should come out focused and ready to abuse the mediocre brew crew pitchers. CC included.
as superhuman as sabathia seems to be, his arm just may fall off in the 6th inning of game 2, or at least miss a few spots to the point where we can hurt him or get him yanked for the subpar bullpen…
i think our boys know exactly what needs to be done and i hope they stay on top the rest of the way…
Posted: 02:55 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 mike m
fire andy reid only hope is jeff laurie sells. The eagles and phillies owners are the same just good enough to win a meaningless division and hope to get lucky to win it all. Why can’t we have owners who will pull out ALL THE stops to win. Like dallas is doing and like the ravens did a couple of years ago when they won and then had to rebuild. If i am right we are the only team out of the original eight to not win a superbowl. In our division dallas has five new york three and washington I think four eagles big fat 0
Posted: 02:57 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Mike, just a tip: visit boards.philadelphiaeagles.com to talk about Team Underwhelming.
Thanks!
Posted: 03:00 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Dennis
I’m having trouble gaining confidence in the Phils for this series, I guess cause last year was such a let down that I don’t want to get my hopes to high this year.
I need to know from everyone, besides that fact that the Brewers pretty much backed into playoffs, tell me….
Why are the Phils going to win this series?
Posted: 03:18 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
Dennis – we have a huge bullpen advantage, as well as the better all around lineup and bench. That’s a quick summary of some reasons.
Posted: 03:22 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Tyler
…good luck guys.
Posted: 03:25 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Kyle
Anyone else think I am crazy for having a feeling that Seth McClung may just get a start in this series the way he pitched Friday night?
Posted: 03:31 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
my confidence is stemming from the phillies focused outlook this year as opposed to last year. these guys got the taste last year and this year they want more. a lot of guys who have never been there cannot understand the magnitude of the situation at hand. most of our boys know how important it is and look at what they’ve done in september, one of the best all around teams in the bigs. i feel like they are going to carry that momentum into this post season. i think colbert is going to come out strong and get past a first inning w/o giving up a run and our boys (for once) will provide some support because they know how big it will be to go up 1-0. if still not convinced to be confident i will gladly rant more
Posted: 03:42 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 mike m
Sorry Tim just venting My rage at the owners.
Posted: 03:46 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 OZ
somebody find Marty Bystrom!?!
Posted: 03:52 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
5:04 p.m.: It’s over. Marlins win 4-2. The last game at Shea Stadium completes another stunning September collapse. The Brewers are your National League wild card.
4:42 p.m.: Brewers game is final – 3-1 victory. With two men on and two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning, Carlos Delgado lined a shot to left that looked like it could have been a three-run homer off his bat, but was caught at the warning track by left fielder Josh Willingham. Top of the ninth, Marlins up.
- Lelinwalla
excerpt from a mets blog as they were losing, haha even in his typed word you can sense the defeat. i love it. muts are trash, brooklyn mets, ny mets, whatever you want to call them they are pure trash
Posted: 04:18 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
self proclaimed ‘collapse’ – i love it, the self-loathing on their end is priceless
Posted: 04:19 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 SJ Mike
Unfortunately, didn’t win the lottery for potential NLCS tickets either. Guess I’m watching from home.
Posted: 04:32 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob Cowie
I may have an extra ticket to game 1 so maybe one of you lucky folks will be going with me.
Posted: 04:46 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
If tonights White Sox game gets rained out for real does anyone know if that would effect the Phils series? Thought it was unlikely but the last thing we want it the series pushed back a day…
Posted: 04:50 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
wow free beer for cowie at game 1 huh? anybody sitting in/near section 316?
Posted: 04:50 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike W.
Question for everyone: I just got tix to NLCS game 2. If both NLDS series are sweeps, would the move the date up for the start of the NLCS, or would it remain on october 9th no matter what???
Posted: 04:58 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
as far as i know the date wouldn’t get pushed up… i think they set those dates per TV availability, venue availability etc…
did you get tix for NLCS game 2/4 … depending on who we play we might get homefield or we might not… or does it say NLCS home game 2? i pick mine up at willcall on wed.
Posted: 05:10 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 meghan
Mike W – Im pretty sure the schedule is set. Because not all teams could finish their series’ at the same time. Remember the Rockies last year after they won the league? They had so much time off without a game they got a little rusty…
Posted: 05:12 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob Cowie
Nah, it wouldn’t get pushed up. That’s the benefit of a sweep, extra days rest.
Posted: 05:19 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike W.
I got home game 2. So then it will either be Oct 10 or Oct 13
Posted: 05:21 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Jh
I don’t want to be an idiot, but what happened to Ben Sheets???
Posted: 06:14 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Robbi P
ESPN is reporting that Gallardo is starting game one! Check it out http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3616953
throws in something interesting.
Posted: 07:40 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Amanda
Gallardo was named game one starter. He missed most of the year with an injury. the 22 year old has some electric stuff, but the trick is, is he healthy?
Posted: 09:57 PM on September 29, 2008
Posts: 0 Resident Arthroscopic Surgeon
CC’s arm is gonna fall off.
Posted: 12:45 AM on September 30, 2008
Posts: 0 J-Man
Yea the Brew Crew announced Yovani Gallarado will start Game 1 and CC Sabathia will start Game 2…Gallarado could be a tough pitcher to face because if he’s healthy he had good stuff…I think the key for the Phils is to make the Brew Crews pitchers throw alot of pitches early and get them out of the game and get to their bullpen.
Posted: 02:18 AM on September 30, 2008