NLCS Preview Part I : The Offense … Excluding Manny
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 10:00 AM | Comments: 21
Posts
2008 National League Championship Series Preview
Part I : The Offense … Excluding Manny
2008 Los Angeles Dodgers
.264 / 700 R / 137 HR / 271 2B / 29 3B / 543 BB / 1032 K / 126 SB / .333 OBP / .399 SLG
Probable Lineup
Rafael Furcal – SS
Russell Martin – C
Manny Ramirez – LF
Andre Ethier – RF
James Loney – 1B
Matt Kemp – CF
Blake DeWitt – 2B
Casey Blake – 3B
On The Bench
Danny Ardoin – C
Nomar Garciaparra – 1B/3B/SS
Jeff Kent – 1B/2B
Pablo Ozuna – 2B
Angel Berroa – 2B/SS
Juan Pierre – OF
About
Before Manuel Aristedes Ramirez joined the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team was 54-54. Since Ramirez has been on board, the Dodgers are 30-24, not exactly the model of greatness, but certainly a better team. And certainly, Ramirez is the main reason for that resurgence.
In his 53 National League games, Ramirez hit .396 with 17 home runs, 53 runs batted in, and, yes, two stolen bases. He has also single-handedly brought braids back to Hollywood for the first time since Britney Spears rocked them. Yeah, Manny has done it all.
But the Dodgers offense is not just about Ramirez. It’s also about young hitters (Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Blake DeWitt) and veteran mainstays (Rafael Furcal, Nomar Garciaparra, Casey Blake, Jeff Kent). With Ramirez, all of these guys contribute to a very potent, versatile hitters row.
Start Up Top
If there is a goal for Phillies pitchers, it’s to keep the top of the Dodgers order off the basepaths. Their top-two is Furcal and Martin. Furcal returned from injury just in time to heat up in the playoffs, and he’ll supply the same kind of versatile spark Jimmy Rollins gives the Phils. Martin, meanwhile, is a good hitter, a Jayson Werth-type player who will get on base, cause havoc, and hit a couple longballs, too. If the Phils can halt Furcal and Martin, Ramirez won’t get big chances.
Behind The Basher
And behind Ramirez lies some promise. While Kemp, Ethier and Loney are talented young hitters, they’ve slumped in the postseason, likely pressing because of inexperience. Still, one has to be warned. Ethier is a 20-homer hitter with a .300 average. Kemp is practically a mirror image. And Loney, while lacking power, is a scary spray hitter capable of doing damage at any time.
Two Sides
The inexperience factor is huge for the Phils. Overall, the Dodgers don’t strike out (except Kemp, who whiffed 153 times in 2008), but don’t walk (except Martin, who had 90 in 2008). They’re free swingers. That’s a big advantage for Phillies pitchers, who rely more on savvy, timing and fielding.
That said, the Dodgers experienced bats might wreak the most havoc on Phils pitching. If anyone will carry no jitters in Los Angeles, it’s Kent, and Blake, and Garciaparra, and Juan Pierre — all of whom have extensive playoff experience.
Oh yeah, and then there’s Manny.
Final Word
The Phillies have given up 8.9 hits per game, which is mediocre. Despite this, they won’t give up as many runs. That plays well against Los Angeles, who will hit the ball. The key to the series for Phillies pitchers is to avoid walking batters. It’s not hard — these guys just don’t walk that much. That bend-not-break strategy rings true for Jamie Moyer, Brett Myers and Joe Blanton, who have given up about a hit per inning, but just a walk every three.
If the Phils can limit walks and position pitches well, they’ll be fine. Moreover, the Brewers only had four extra-base hits against Phillie pitching, so if they can limit Los Angeles’ extra baggers, it’s in the bag.
Posts: 0 Griffin
Furcal has been playing real well of late. We need to keep him off the basepaths.
Posted: 10:29 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
What I didn’t think about was the fact that the Phillies will be facing 3 RHP to start the series… and that might be a great thing to get Utley and Howard going! Hamels-Lowe, Myers-Billingsley, Moyer- Kuroda, Blanton-Kershaw..
I’d love to see Hamels step up for Game #4 though on 3 days rest… and then Game #7 would be on full rest… if you could pitch him 3 games out of 7.. that would give us a distinct advantage.. time to help the team Cole
Posted: 10:52 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Don, although that would be great, I don’t see Hamels doing that, he’s just not durable enough. He’s literally like half the size of Sabathia (the Beast) and imo doesn’t have the stamina to overuse his arm like that. He has stated himself many times that he keeps close track of his pitch count, and seeing as how he’s already over his career high in innings pitched this year, doubtful we’ll see our ace 3 times.
Posted: 11:08 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Dan
the lack of lefty pitchers on their staff provides a huge advantage. I’m sure we will get to it, but if they only have one lefty in the pen, should we split chase and Ryan?
Posted: 11:09 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I think Blanton earned himself a start in game four. The only way they start Hamels, possibly, is if they’re down 0-3.
Posted: 11:09 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 MP
yeah no way cole goes three games or on short rest. it would be foolish for him to do so. he should get the second game on full rest and then rest up until the world series!!!
Posted: 11:10 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
What about having him go on 60 pitches or something.. and having Blaton take over in like the 4th or 5th to start the inning.. ???
Make sure you guys dont start going crazy about Blanton…. up until Sundat at 1:00… he was “terrbile”
I don’t think they’ll do anything with Hamels on short rest either, but it is possible to pitch him on short-rest.. and you know other teams would do that. and he’d be fully rested in a game #7 in they needed it. or is it better to have him throw game #5 on full rest??
Posted: 11:16 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
A lot of people were saying who picked the Dodgers over the Phillies etc…
I went to espn.com.. and looked up their orignal postseason picks. 18 “experts” in total.
7 picked the Angels, 6 picked the Cubs, 2 picked the RedSox, 2 picked the Dodgers, and 1 picked the Rays to win the World Series
6 of the experts had the Cubs and Angels playing each other in the World Series…
So I don’t care too much who these guys pick, because I would have been wrong on every series except the Phillies too, and the point is that nobody knows how it will turn out.. thats why the games aren’t played on paper
Posted: 11:18 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I think the Phillies are better than this team and I ultimately expect them to win the Pennant and get to the World Series. It may, and perhaps will, take 6 or 7 games. Like I said before, despite all the complaints and all their percieved weaknesses, they can beat the Dodgers and if the Rays make it to the WS I think they match up really well against them and are primed to put the stops on the Rays’ magical run and recapture the WS crown for the first time since 1980. I dont want to run into the Red Sox again…too much playoff experience there for my comfort.
Well worry about that later though, for now, this is a good year for the Phillies to have a chance at this run. The Angels are gone now, the Cubs are out of the way, Sabathia is out of the way, and things are lining up really great for them if they can get past the Dodgers, a tough and well-managed team with very good pitching. Charlie will have them focused and ready and I think they will win Game 1 behind Hamels’ dominant left arm again. Lowe is very beatable when he doesnt paint the corners.
Posted: 11:27 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Did the Dodgers announce their game 4 starter yet? I hope they go with Maddux instead of the young lefty Kershaw.
Posted: 11:36 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
LA Times had an article about how Kershaw will probably get the nod to balance out the LH power from the Phillies ..
Posted: 11:47 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruce
If the Phillies can use the same tactic that the Brewers had with Howard (walked seven times) when facing Manny Ramirez, they can avoid a potential disaster that this great hitter presents.
While Hamels (2 hits for 8 ABs) and Myers (3 hits for 19 ABs) had success against Manny Ramirez, it’s a different story elsewhere in the rotation. Pitchers Ramírez faced in the American League , Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, he had great success against. Moyer, who would seem just the type to struggle with a patient hitter like Ramírez, has surrendered 10 homers to Ramírez among his 18 hits. Joe Blanton has fared worse, knocked around for a .560 average.
Advice to Moyer and Blanton.. don’t give Manny a chance to hit and pitch around him at every opportunity.
Posted: 11:59 AM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Same way the Brewers pitched around Howard, and then had to tip their cap when Burrell went yard… we would have to make the other-Dodgers beat us..
Posted: 12:06 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 LH
good analysis Tim
Posted: 12:12 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Harper
Tim, didn’t you mean wreck the most havoc?
Posted: 12:22 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Hamels and Myers should be allowed to attack Manny, and honestly, when Moyer and Blanton are hitting their spots, they should be allowed to attack too. Moyer is pretty aggressive for an old spot pitcher. Blanton can deal when he is on fire. I think if Moyer and Blanton pitch well in their starts the Phillies have the inside track at winning the series. The Phillies destroyed Kershaw in their last meeting with him (only lasted a few innings). Lowe is experienced and tough but not invinceable. Billingsley is very good but hes due for a whooping. Kuroda is due for an ass beating too because hes been good in his starts against them. So you send out Kershaw or Maddux in Gamne 4.
I think this sets up very well for the Phillies. Everyone of these Dodgers starters is beatable assuming they dont perform like they did against Dave Bush. I like their chances here, Im thinking theyre going to get it done and get to the WS.
Posted: 12:33 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Bruce
Don M~ Fortunately, the “Bums” don’t have a Burrell on their team and I rather take my chances with “other Dodgers…” than have Manny be a killjoy with his bat.
Posted: 12:34 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Actually Harper, I meant “wreak.” Careless. But I do love how you guys point out my carelessness. Thanks.
Posted: 12:35 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Greg F.
I like this match-up with the right arm heavy Dodgers. I also think it will take six or the full seven to win this, and that’s because of the X factor; time zone travel and the Phils home field advantage. I would not travel Hamels or Meyers to Los Angeles. Send them home to rest and avoid the trip west which is depleting. Send Moyers, Blanton and Happ out for 3-5, and have a rested Hamels/Meyers duo waiting on the team to return. Don’t underestimate how much time zone travel depletes a team. The Phils will feel it for game three, but the Dodgers will have it much worse for games six and seven with body clock way ahead eastern time. West coast teams heading all the way east on short rest have traditionally underperformed.
Posted: 12:42 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 bigmyc
Blanton has not been terrible. Inconsistent, yes. Terrible, no.
Has he even lost a game in the National League? He hasn’t won many, but he’s here to pitch solidly. If he puts the other teams’ lights out, that’s whatcha call a, “bonus.”
Posted: 12:59 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
He’s like 5-0.. and the Phillies are 10-4 in his starts or something… but his ERA is around a 4.00, so he hasn’t been great, but he hasn’t been bad… he’s better than most other teams’ #4 pitchers, and definitely better than what our other options would have been
Posted: 01:01 PM on October 7, 2008