NLCS Preview Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, October 07, 2008 02:00 PM | Comments: 39
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2008 National League Championship Series Preview
Part II : Defeating Manny Ramirez
Then there’s Manny.
About
Yes, Manny Ramirez made this a different team. From April to June the Dodgers hit 53 home runs. From July to September: 84. Ramirez had a lot to do with that — he hit 17 after joining the Dodgers. Ramirez gives the Dodgers exactly what they were lacking: a consistent extra-base hit machine.
And that’s precisely what the Phillies have to stop.
Of course, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Matt Kemp are important. And so are Jeff Kent, Juan Pierre, Nomar Garciaparra and Rafael Furcal. But Manny is the king. Manny will take this team where he wants to take them. If he hits, they’ll win. Simple as that.
Case in point: When the Dodgers swept the Phillies at Chavez Ravine, Ramirez had 5 RBI. When the Phils swept the Dodgers at the Bank, Ramirez had 0 RBI.
Trying To Stop Him
So how do you keep him from driving in runs? The first, most obvious answer, is to get the guys out in front of him. As I said earlier, the Phils need to shut down Furcal and Martin. The second, next most obvious answer, is to walk Ramirez. Of course, with multiple men on base, you’re running the risk of letting a young kid beat you, and that’s a huge momentum error. The third, next next most obvious answer, is to pitch around him and hope he swings badly. But he won’t. Though he has 124 strikeouts, only 42 are in the second half. Since joining Los Angeles, Manny has suddenly remembered how to hit a baseball.
Okay, so how can you make him record outs? Well, first off, Ramirez is hitting .373 when he puts the ball in play (.407 in the second half), so good luck. But, wait, there are ways.
Pitch Him Here
According to his Dodger Stadium, Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park hit charts, he has more trouble getting hits into right field, and will hit into a lot of outs on the left side of the infield. That would mean the best places to pitch him are belt-inside, and low and away (where he’d try to get the barrel under the ball). And his hot zones show he’s “just” a .279 hitter belt-inside, and a .282 hitter low and away (everywhere else is fire-red). As the Phils own a couple pitchers who dance in the strike zone, it’s possible for the balls to hit their spots and Manny to come up early or late.
But here’s the kicker. While it seems the best way to pitch Ramirez is by dancing, power pitchers have it much easier. These guys (who tend to walk more, but also strike out more) have held Ramirez to a .265 average, while finesse pitchers (guys who dance around the zone) have received a .382 knocking against him. RBI totals are also as contrasting.
With that last part said, this shouldn’t surprise:
- Cole Hamels hasn’t been hit too badly, at a .250 clip.
- Brett Myers has held Ramirez to .158, but all three hits are extra-base hits. And he has walked Ramirez five times.
- Jamie Moyer has been owned to a .340 average. In 53 at bats, Ramirez has taken Moyer yard 10 times. Moyer does have 12 strikeouts against him.
- Then there’s Joe Blanton. Ramirez has a .560 average in 25 at bats. Yet just two of the 14 hits are for extra bases.
So power pitchers Hamels and Myers should fare better against Ramirez, as long as they throw strikes. Moyer and Blanton? Grab a glove. Luckily Moyer and Blanton match up well with the free swingers around Ramirez, so they’ll have to do their best in those spots.
No Relief
As for relievers? Ramirez has put Ryan Madson, JC Romero, Chad Durbin and Scott Eyre all in his book. And Eyre should not face Ramirez — Manny has torched him, 4-for-4 with 2 HR and 5 RBI. If anyone in the pen should get Manny it’s Madson (.222). Brad Lidge, by the way, struck out Ramirez the only time he ever faced him.
Final Word
I decided to write a lot about Ramirez because, and you can’t hide this, he is the key to this series. Keep him off the board and the Phils should win their sixth NL crown. While it’s important to stop the top of the order, one Manny swing can change the complexion of the series. To beat him, pitchers will have to fire strikes at him, and in his cold zones (belt-inside, low and away). Walking him helps, but you’re taking a gamble either way. Late, the Phils may walk him every time, unless No. 63 or No. 54 are on the hill. And I wouldn’t mind that. They cannot … cannot … let No. 99 beat them.
Posts: 0 Chutley
I really think the Phils have figured hm out. After the first series sweep, the Phils reloaded and didn’t let Manny do anything. I feel good that our rotation knows how to handle him and as long as MYERS doesn’t blow up i feel good in this series.
Posted: 02:44 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Gabriel
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/news/newstest.aspx?id=4184000
one of the first positive non-philly based breakdown of the upcoming series…
Posted: 02:47 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
Defeating Manny Ramirez is easy – don’t pitch to him. They aren’t going to pitch to Howard, unless Burrell can come out and kill the ball, which isn’t likely, so don’t pitch to Manny. I will take our lineup minus Howard over their lineup minus Manny.
Position by position of starting lineup:
C – Ruiz vs Martin — Both are solid defensively, but Martin is better offensively
Edge – Dodgers
1B – Howard vs Loney — Loney is a much better defensive player, but Howard is a game-changer, especially if they pitch to him.
Edge – Phillies
2B – Utley vs Kent — Kent was a very good player for many years, but the years have caught up to him; Utley needs to show signs of life, but is currently the better player. Hopefully Utley decides to bring his bat along for this series.
Edge – Phillies
SS – Rollins vs Furcal — If both healthy, I call this dead even. Both are amazing defensive players, both are good hitters, both score a lot of runs; Rollins has more power; Furcal is a better average hitter. The issue here is health, both spent time on the DL this season, but Furcal is just coming back from missing over 100 games.
Edge – Phillies
3B – Feliz vs Blake — Both are very solid defensively, but Blake is a slighty better hitter.
Edge – Dodgers
LF – Burrell vs Manny — Both suck defensively; offensively . . . haha
Edge – Dodgers
CF – Victorino vs Kemp — Both solid defensively, both have a lot of speed, both hit for good average, both have some pop in the bat, but Victorino is a fire-starter. Uncle Chalie needs to bat him two, and leave Werth in the 6 hole.
Edge – Phillies
RF – Werth vs Ethier — Somewhat similar players – Both play good defense, Ethier hits for a better average; Werth has more power and speed, which will be key in the series.
Edge – Phillies
SP – Hamels vs Lowe — Both very good pitchers, coming off of good seasons although the numbers don’t quite indicate how good both guys have been. Hamels is a bonafide ace, or will be next season, while Lowe is a solid 2-3.
Edge – Phillies
Bullpen — Both have solid bullpens, so we can call them even, but the Phillies have a legitimate closer.
Edge – Phillies
I have it scored 7-3 Phillies. Two pretty evenly matched teams who are both hot – should make for a fun series.
Posted: 02:51 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I think its a stretch to compare Feliz and Blake evenly for 3b defense! Feliz has 8 errors (in 300+ chances).. Blake has 14 (in 245 chances)… thats a big difference
Blake definitely has an offensive-edge over Pedro, but considering they hit 7th, and 8th in their respective lineups… I wouldn’t say that either is counted on for their offense… to me that gives Feliz an edge… or a push at best..
Of the two, i’d rather have Feliz playing 3b for my team in important games!
Posted: 03:02 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 ryan
manny always had David Ortiz in boston to come up with all the clutch hits all the time. manny never had to carry a team by himself to the extent that he will have to to win this series.
Posted: 03:50 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 vendor71
Good assessment on the Manny being Manny problem, but this puts Charlie in a bit of a quandary for game 3, since that is likely Moyer’s start?
I don’t want to sound panicky, but flip-flopping Moyer and Blanton in the rotation seems like a good idea right now.
Posted: 03:57 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I think you pitch your best pitchers as much as you can.. Moyer is better than Blanton, regardless of how much success Manny has against him
Posted: 04:50 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Fire
I just saw this in a column by Jeff Passan at Yahoo! Sports and almost threw my computer through the window. Overall, it’s a positive story about Lidge, but he of course has to speak of Philly in those old repetitive stereotypes:
“For the fundamentalists who believed otherwise – who pegged Lidge a head case – the idea of him going to Philadelphia was laughable. The city that booed Santa Claus and cheered the potential paralysis of Michael Irvin and launched batteries at J.D. Drew would eat Lidge alive, a bloodthirsty Audrey II to his Seymour.”
So friggin’ annoying. You know what? If they’d just stop talking about the Santa Claus thing, it would go away.
Posted: 07:17 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
Just read a piece on MLB.com on the upcoming series. It was pretty bad and almost completely focused on the Dodgers if you ask me. I don’t know why I bother going on there anymore.
Posted: 07:23 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
I dont’ like felix,and your argument about defense is pointless,unless you have seen a lot of dodgers games. How much range does this kid have. Felix we know can’t go to his left. Most times good range infielders will have more errors. They get to more balls. But that being said I looked at both players numbers offensiveally and its a push to me.
Posted: 07:39 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 ryan
all day on espn today all they talked about was how much they wanted to see manny against the red sox. ahhhhh!!!! screw them bastards. i hope the phillies win if for nothing more than to make them unhappy.
Posted: 07:58 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 harry
if your talking about casey blake, he is far from being a kid. blake to me is more of a solid utility guy, but more know for his offense then defense.
Posted: 08:01 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Harry my fault. was looking at de witt numbers.
Posted: 08:09 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Tim do you think there will ever be some kind of cap in baseball. The salaries are going through the roof. Look at the starting pitchers. CC. will get more than Santana. so if you pay him twenty five million or more ,average starter will command fifteen or more the eatons of the world will ruin this sport. Get stuck with those four year 60 million and get nothing out of that player, then what. especilally when you have limit payroll. Tampa bay is good now but will lose most of there players, when there contracts are up. that market can’t compete. Every so many years if they draft well they will be in the race, but because of limited market can’t be good for too long . then the boston and new yorks get there players.Guarantee contracts kill this sport. sign a player and he doesn’t have to work hard. he still gets his money.it’s really a bad system.
Posted: 08:27 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Spike Rogan
Ryan your off about “Big Pappi” carrying Manny. Most of the games I saw Ortiz was ahead of manny in the lineup and would get a IBB and they would pitch to manny instead.
I do wonder if Lidge gets a K from Manny will that be “Lidge just being Lidge”?
Posted: 10:47 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Is anyone concerned about the umps trying to throw the game in the Dodgers favor because Bud Selig asks them too? Shrinking the strike zone, making bad calls on the bags, bad foul ball calls, etc?
Posted: 10:51 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Ryk
“Tampa bay is good now but will lose most of there players, when there contracts are up. that market can’t compete. Every so many years if they draft well they will be in the race, but because of limited market can’t be good for too long .”
I agree, but I’d like to add that this might entirely be the case. There is a chance that Tampa Bay, instead of signing their players to long-term, big-dollar contracts, will just become sellers at the deadline and dish off players like Upton, Kazmir, Crawford, Longoria, etc for bonafide prospects, thus keeping their team cheap and young for many many years. They’ve built themselves a heck of a team through high draft positions and wise trading, and they can continue to have a cheap, young team by dealing the players on the last year of their contracts. give them a stadium and a dedicated fan base….I’d love to see them whoop up on the Yankees and Sawks year after year.
Posted: 11:46 PM on October 7, 2008
Posts: 0 K T
KM,
just so that you have your facts straight…you compared Utley vs Kent….well if you been following the dodgers you would know Kent has been relegated to pinch-hitting duties only and Dewitt who is phenominal in the field has replaced him…he is a right hander who bats lefty.. he is pretty clutch in pressure situations…has a good eye
Also ethier has just as much speed as werth if not more…I’ve watched them both over the years…I like werth a lot and i hated to see him go but he was the 5th outfielder at the time of his release
This will be a very good series with the hotter team winning…good luck to your team…Go Dodgers…L.A. born and raised
oh by the way, my parents were born in Philly and all my cousins live in the surrounding areas…been there many times and have enjoyed this rivalry through the years
Posted: 01:58 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Rich
Honestly I see a sweep in the Dodgers favor.
But I’m never honest.
Go Phils!
http://www.collegefastbreak.com/
Posted: 02:50 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Eric
Are we going to see an interview with a Dodgers blogger? The series with the BrewCrewBall folks was great. Out here in SF, the internets are the only place I really get to hear some good Phils analysis.
Keep up the good work.
Posted: 06:01 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 redsoxfan
KT see you in the world series.
Posted: 06:13 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
mikemike…
Pedro Feliz is among the BEST defensive 3b in all of baseball.. and has the numbers to back up that claim.. I’m not saing he’ll win the Gold Glove, beacuse I don’t think he will… but of the 3b left in the playoffs, he is the best defensively… and in the playoffs, Pitching and Defense are what wins..
Posted: 09:53 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Man I hate Manny!
Posted: 10:37 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
K T,
If Ethier has more speed than Werth, why was he 6/9 in steal attempts (525 at bats), while Werth was 20/21 in steal attempts(418 at bats)? I know speed isn’t everything in stealing bases, but there is a huge difference there. I guess I can defer to you on that one, being that you watched both players over the years, but the numbers say otherwise, so I guess my “facts were straight” there.
Dewitt is a nice young player, and was on fire for a good portion of the season. I did know that Dewitt replaced Kent, but it slipped my mind when I wrote that yesterday. I apologize for not watching every single Dodgers game this season. Either way, Kent or Dewitt, the edge goes to Chase if he decides to bring his bat to the series.
Posted: 11:06 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 KM
Battle of hot teams:
Phillies have won 19/25
Dodgers have won 20/25
Posted: 11:10 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
or if you start from the beginning of September… That counts 9 against San Diego, 4 against Pittsburgh, 6 against San Francisco.. 3 against the Rockies… and also the Diamondbacks, and Cubs
Phillies had 3 vs. the Mets… 8 vs. the Brewers… 6 vs. the Marlins..
So if comparing those numbers, the Phillies played much better teams.. BUT… I don’t think that who you played a month ago has any impact on what the teams do now… neither team will STAY hot after 4-5 days off… its a matter of who steps up in THIS series
Posted: 11:24 AM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Don M You really believe Felix is that good .He is a limited offensive player, and if it’s hit at him he is good. With a strong arm. But has no range . You can keep defending him but the only teams that wanted him were san francisco and phillies. And S.F. would’t pay him that much. You must be the smartest guy on this blog. because the G.M. in baseball know how limited this guy is can’t hit for average. can’t run, doesn’t walk, limited range, once in a while gets a fastball and can hit it throw him breaking balls and he is a dead out.
Posted: 12:27 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
you don’t like him, eventhough he’s one of the best defensive 3b in the game..
and I do like him because he is one of the best defensive 3b in the game…
He hits 7th in the lineup, so he’s not counted on for his offense, but has numerous game-winnings hits this season anyway..
Of the 3b in baseball that played more the 900 innings at 3b… only a few had higher fielding % than Perdo FeliZ (with a “Z”)..
Troy Glaus, .982%, 385 Total Chances, 7 errors.
Chone Figgins, .978%, 275 Total Chances, 6 errors.
Kevin Kouzmanoff, .974%, 416 Total Chances, 11 errors.
Pedro Feliz , .974%, 304 Total Chances, 8 errors.
Casey Blake.. Indians 3b.. 192 Total Chances, 12 errors, .938%
with the Dodgers 3b… 133 Total Chances, 2 errors, .985%
add them up is 325 Total Chances, 14 errors, .957%
Blake DeWitt at 3b.. 259 Total Chances, 8 errors, .969%
Granted I don’t watch the Dodgers enough to know how much range these guys do or don’t have.. But I watch enough baseball to know that Pedro Feliz has decent range for a 3b.. and that you’re trying desperately to start an arguement here that has no merit
You can keep it coming though if you want..
Posted: 12:59 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
you can’t be serious Troy Glaus has no range anymore . I Really thought you knew baseball. Errors are very misleading on a guys worth as a fielder. you have to consider range, but you just throw out fielding percentage, and to say a thirdbasemen who is batting seventh isn’t expected to hit is so stupid a statement I can’t believe you said it. The only thing he has is a good arm and as I said if it’s hit at him he fields. How many games did you see him charge a ball and glove it and not make the play, Don you can’t sell this guy to anyone on this blog who knows baseball. Why did no other teams go after him, when he was out there at a cheap price for a corner infielder.
Posted: 01:10 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
mikemike…I know baseball and disagree with you. Ever hear of the +/- system? Pedro lead it at 3B for the past 3 seasons.
Posted: 01:12 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Phil david wright had sixteen errors who is the better fielder. did you ever hear of a word named range to judge a fielder. plus and minus doesn’t tell you anything about how many more balls a wright will get to over a felix. The more chances the better range more chance for errors. I would really hope that we could get a gm or scout on to tell you about how to judge a fielder. Pat Burrell stinks as a fielder, he get to less balls than most outfielders. so I guess you will tell me he is one of the best. because of his errors. stupid
Posted: 01:18 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
How many other teams went after ANY 3b that was out there?? Mike Lowell didn’t get a whole lot of intrest… Miguel Cabrera was traded..
Honestly.. you must be one of those people that thinks Carlos Ruiz is no good either, because he doesn’t hit .275+ with 25+ HR..
Pitching and Defense win you ball games.. which is why Pedro FeliZ and Carlos Ruiz are on this team, and why they are playing… even when Manuel wants to add some pop in the lineup to break up the RH bats… Feliz comes into the games to replace Dobbs because he’s a DEFENSIVE 3b..
How is saying that you shouldn’t rely on your 7th and 8th hitters to carry an offense a dumb statement??
Look up BILL JAMES evaluations from last year, and he says that Pedro Feliz should have won the Gold Glove… but just as Rollins last year, the GG sometimes goes to the best overall player.. last year it went to David Wright..
I’m not calling for Feliz to win an MVP or anything, but the fact that Phillies fans aren’t on-board with the smart addition of Pedro Feliz amazes me..
Posted: 01:19 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Its really not worth arguing over at this point… you are for some reason insisting that Pedro Feliz is no good eventhough my own eyes and his own stats prove otherwise..
i’ll take your word for it because you contribute so many great points and great overall comments to this blog
Posted: 01:21 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Don you are right after looking up pat burrell numbers. he is the best left fielder in baseball only 2 errors all year. you really think a third basemen doesn’t have to hit because he bats seventh. were is that smart. why do you think range doesn’t mean anything. is felix better than wright answer that guestion. remember wright had sixteen errors.Pitching and defense do win games, Ruiz is a good defense catcher but his offensive output kills this team, you need a better on base percentage out of your seventh and eighth place hitter. Than felix and ruiz give you. You are amazes that people aren’t on board with you about felix. Well just by hearing you state your case for mangament and players, we all know you are the only one who knows baseball. all the other people who watch know nothing. Your stated other teams didn’t go after any thirdbasemen well they saw the choices felix, and stay with what they had instead of this very average player. and I did say if it hit to him he fields it. but he isn’t anything to brag about. I am trying to think in recent years if teams won with bad hitting third basemen and by the way lowell was persude by more than boston and phila. but they were the two teams he wanted to go to and if you remember san franscisco was in there for lowell and glaus.
Posted: 01:38 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
In the English language, we use COMMAS, and PERIODS… that way people can understand what we are trying to say.
Never once did I say that Pat Burrell is the best LF.. (if you’ve been around for more then the past two weeks, you’ve seen me say all year that resigning Burrell is risky because in another 2-3 years, he’ll cover even LESS ground in the OF)
Also, I never said that range wasn’t a factor.. but that from what I’ve seen out of FeliZ, he’s got pretty decent range, and is very good at handling the balls he gets to.
I think that FeliZ was a good signing, and was a big improvement to what we’ve had at thirs base over the past few seasons.. YOU DON’T THINK SO… I get it
I know that a lot of people know a lot about baseball.. In fact, the other day I thanked all the guys & girls that run this site.. and said it was great that we get to talk Phillies baseball and have intelligent conversations with other fans who really know their stuff.. that was without taking you into account though..
You’ve called me the smartest person on this blog like 7 times so far today.. and for that, I thank you kindly
Read back a little and realize that this started because I said FeliZ was very good defensive 3b.. I’m not sure how much more range you want him to have (Jose Reyes has lots of RANGE at SS… but it doens’t mean he’s good..) or what kind of offensive numbers you want him to have.. I’d be interested to see what you want from your 7-hitter though
Posted: 01:50 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 MikeB
The Dodgers are a much better hitting team then the Brewers. To match the Dodger offense, I think it is wise for the Phillies to start Dobbs at third base against right-handed pitchers in this series since Charlie will probably start Burrell in every game and there will not be any starting outfield spot for Dobbs. Feliz can replace Dobbs in these games in the late innings for his better defense shoulld the Phillies have a lead. If only Feliz was a better hitter, especially in the clutch.
Posted: 03:40 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Clutch like this:
Pedro Feliz lifts Phillies over Dodgers
By ROB MAADDI AP Sports Writer
Article Last Updated: 08/26/2008 08:28:53 AM EDT
PHILADELPHIA—Pedro Feliz forced extra innings with his first clutch hit. His next one set off a celebration.
Feliz hit a tying RBI single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and delivered a game-winning, three-run homer in the 11th to lift the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-2 Sunday night.
Posted: 04:27 PM on October 8, 2008
Posts: 0 bye ery87
http://speakshermind.redmonk.net/archives/2003/04/21/finally-going-to-the-dentist
Posted: 11:17 AM on May 31, 2010
Posts: 0 blackhat forum
I love your website! did you create this yourself or did you outsource it? Im looking for a blog design thats similar so thats the only reason I’m asking. Either way keep up the nice work I was impressed :)
Posted: 05:25 AM on June 23, 2010