Comments on: NLCS Preview Part III : A Stacked Rotation

By: db

db — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 20:04:28 +0000

throw a RHP/LHP on the top roster for us newbs who dont know every name :)

By: Phil

Phil — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:56:34 +0000

MikeB…I think the Cubs were cold because the starters got rested for the last week of the regular season.

By: MikeB

MikeB — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:55:43 +0000

I was modestly surprised when the Dodgers beat the Cubbies in the NLDS but for them to do it in three games straight was a big surprise. After all, the Cubs had one of the best records in baseball. So then the question is, were the Dodgers the superior team or were the Cubs burned out and played their best baseball earlier in the year?

By: Gabriel

Gabriel — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 18:05:19 +0000

more or less? how about more than less… did rynho even have a hit in the series?! chase had one – although it was important for the game 1 win, it was also an error on cameron (not officially but hey, we all saw what we saw)…
i think 7 days worth of BP will help our duo tremendously, i hope at least… i think they are like, 75% the key offensively in this series but not the be all that ends all…

By: Mike N

Mike N — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:50:46 +0000

Squonk64- Sorry, I wasn’t clear. I meant that the Dodgers are much better than the *Brewers*. I think the Phils and the Dodgers are pretty evenly matched, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it go seven games. My point was, Utley and Howard have to pick it up since we cannot beat the Dodgers without them. We did more or less beat the Brewers without them.

By: Gabriel

Gabriel — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:10:10 +0000

hahah donny great point… espn picks are as reliable as a 1972 pinto!
i’m nervous/anxious/excited for this series all at once… i mean, if we win this thing then we go to the WORLD SERIES! i’m trying my hardest not to get ahead of myself (well i sort of did when i bought WS tickets…) but as a fan i feel as tho i’m entitled to… as a phillies ballplayer i hope they can look at this series one game at a time… that i feel is our best chance to get through to the next step… come on phils! lets go!

By: Don M

Don M — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 17:03:29 +0000

It comes down to the fact that any of the 4 remaining teams have a legit chance to win the World Series..

The RedSox have the experience and the starting pitching.
The Rays have a lot of players who play for the team, and play great situational baseball.. along with good pitching.
The Dodgers have Babe Ruth.. I mean Roy Hobbs.. I mean Manny Ramirez.. to go along with the “best” pitching in the NL..

The Phillies have solid starting pitching, a strong bullpen, power and speed throughout most of their lineup.. very good baserunning and defense.. and the phillies phanatic..

really any team can win.. and if the ESPN crew is all taking the Dodgers, we should feel great about our chances, cause they can’t pick winners to save their lives!

By: Griffin

Griffin — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:48:45 +0000

They should include a 5th question in that poll.” Have we hyped Manny Ramirez vs. the Red Sox enough that now everyone will pick those two teams to win?”

By: Squonk64

Squonk64 — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:30:33 +0000

Mike M: “the much better Dodgers?” Huh?

In all fairness, the Dodgers are a hot team, have done well lately. But so are the Phillies. Both the Dodgers and Phillies beat teams that weren’t hot to get to the NLCS, the Cubbies having lost 4 of 6 at the end of the season and the Brewers being, well, the Brewers.

That talk makes me laugh. Especially when you look at “polls,” like the only over at ESPN.com. See:

http://sports.espn.go.com/chat/sportsnation/poll/index?pCat=46&sCat=181

Q1: Who will win the NLCS? 57-43 Dodgers. (As of this writing.)

Q2: Who has the better starting rotation: Even, 50-50.

Q3: Who has the better bullpen: Phillies, 58-42.

Q4: Who has the better top of the lineup: Phillies, 65-35.

I mean, what am I missing here? That the Dodgers are the better team, even though, when you break things down, The Phillies are better or even in every category?

By: Squonk64

Squonk64 — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:19:23 +0000

Here is my case for the Phillies. The Phillies’ rotation home/away stats is very telling on why the Phillies set the rotation the way they did, all that “lefty/righty” stuff aside.

Hamels: 2.99/0.227 home vs. 3.19/0.226 away. Myers: 3.01/0.232 vs. 6.21/0.301. (Ouch!) Moyer: 4.61/0.294 (Ouch!) vs. 2.92/0.232. Blanton: (Phils only stats not easily available, so I hope I did the math right) 3.55/0.234 vs 5.23/0.260 (Uh, oh…) My bottom line is Hamels is neutral home/away, Myers definately pitches better at home, Moyer definately pitches better on the road, and Blanton is the fourth wheel on a tricycle. The Phillies are making the most of their starting four by pitching their Ace first at home with a possible game 5 on the road, keeping Myers at home regardless in games 2 and 6, pitching Moyer away and praying his experience deals with a possible Game 7 at home, and throwing Blanton out there where he fits.

The only holes I see is Blanton in game 4, and Moyer in a possible game 7. Game 1 should be gimme. Games 2 and 3 and 6 have the Phillies as a slight edge. Game 5 should be tight. If it gets to games 6 or 7, you throw out all the stops if Myers or Moyer get into trouble or the opposing pitcher is doing extremely well. Looking at only the starting pitching match-ups, I don’t see how the Phils pitching matchups are not, at worst, even on 5 of the 7 days.

By: Mike N

Mike N — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 16:11:32 +0000

Unsurprisingly, our success against this pitching staff will come down to whether Utley and Howard hit the right-handed starters. These two guys didn’t have much success in the last series but must get it going now. It was impressive that the Phils handily beat the Brewers with no contributions from Utley and Howard, but they cannot continue to win that way against the much better Dodgers.

By: Don M

Don M — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 15:01:39 +0000

The real key for this series.. is ONE GAME AT A TIME…. if they do that, they can win.. if they start putting pressure on themselves to try to win the whole thing in the first two games at home, they’ll be in trouble..

I know it sounds stupid, but they really need to just relax and play baseball… the crowds down there will be amazing

By: Squonk64

Squonk64 — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:56:59 +0000

IMHO, people make way too much of the Dodgers’ rotation. The fact is the Dodgers play in a pitcher friendly park, which benefits them. (Note: Since 2005, that hasn’t really been the case, however, Dodger Stadium consistently had a park factor ranging from the mid to low 90s before 2005. The only change since then? Drug testing has taken it’s toll, effectively lengthening the distance of the fences at smaller parks while keeping the larger parks unaffected.)

Case in point: Lowe’s home ERA is 2.30 with a 0.206 BA at home, but 4.42 and 0.292 away. (Note: Baseball-Reference.com doesn’t have better stats, like ERA+, for home/away splits.) Billingsley: 2.95 and 0.236 home, 3.33 and 0.260 away. Kuroda: 3.68/0.241 vs. 3.78/0.264. Kershaw: 3.41/0.248 vs. 5.36/0.287. Overall, the staff is 3.01/0.228 vs. 4.40/0.275.

This ought to be a good series, but unlike the talking heads on TV, I don’t see the Dodgers rotation as a strength.

By: KM

KM — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:55:28 +0000

This is going to be a tough series. The key is to be patient against Billingsley, Kuroda and Kershaw, but not too patient, because if you wait too long any of those guys will send you back to the dugout with a K on the scoreboard. To beat Lowe we are going to have to jump on him early and get him out of rhythm. When he’s on, and that sinker is flowing, he is as dominant as any pitcher in baseball.

This series goes 6 minimum.

By: Sct

Sct — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:51:38 +0000

Nice work. Does Milt have your number?

They’ve got to win the games they should win, and they’ve got to have a game plan. Hope we don’t see Lowe in game 4.

By: NC Jason

NC Jason — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:50:46 +0000

Dennis, I also believe the lack of lefties in the Dodgers oration will be a plus. The key to any series – have good at bats. Take pitches and jump on mistakes. – All easier said than done. I would love to see a fast start by the Phillies in the first two games. Remember this staff has not had to pitch in many innings when down and they were not tested coming after a loss.

By: Dennis

Dennis — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:45:11 +0000

I have confidence that the Phils can hit any righty in baseball…. And Kershaw they played well against this year. The bats are going to catch fire in this series and if the pitching holds up, then there is no stopping the Fightins’. I just got the ok to take a half day friday from the boss and will be attending game 2! So Billingsley is going down…..

By: Griffin

Griffin — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:35:08 +0000

Damn, I was hoping Maddux would start game 4 instead of the lefty Kershaw. Oh well, beating these starters is going to be difficult, but not impossible.