NLDS Preview Part VII : Prediction
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, October 01, 2008 11:21 AM | Comments: 31
Posts
We continue our seven-part look at the NLDS.
Part VII : Prediction
I’m not all keen about making a prediction for this series, because it can go so many ways. Literally, I’m nervous about this first game, because it means everything.
Dale Sveum made an ingenious move, whether he planned it or not, to have CC Sabathia start game two. Because of it, there’s a very good chance Milwaukee comes back to their home right after a win. Sure, Sabathia is beatable — as is any major league pitcher — but the Brewers have to love their chances at a split, while grabbing the momentum heading home.
That makes today absolutely crucial. The Phillies shouldn’t be down 2-0 heading into Milwaukee. They can make it up — games three and four should be the best chances for the Phils to batter their pitching — but it would be unbelievably tough.
If we learned anything from last season’s NLDS, it’s that starting pitching is everything, and clutch hitting is a little less than everything. The Phils need good innings from their middle rotation guys, and dominant innings from their top two guys. It starts with Cole Hamels — time for him to be a big-game pitcher. Seven innings of one-run ball? Yes.
Yovani Gallardo will be extremely tough to beat, but if the Phils are smart they’ll be patient and get him pulled after five or so. The Phils can hit the Brewers’ bullpen. If Cole does his thing today, the Phils win.
They may not win game two, but if they stay with Sabathia, and Brett Myers pitches the game of his life, the Phils are in great shape to take that one. A 2-0 lead going into Milwaukee is a series win.
But I’m cautious. I can see game one being a 2-2 game going into the eighth, and one of the Phillie relievers blowing up out of nowhere. I’m more thinking about a win, but this scenario isn’t far from the center of my brain.
Earlier I was about to write that the Brewers will win the series 3-1. Not kidding. This is a trap series — they’re throwing out an unknown wild card in game one, coming with their known ace in game two and letting the home crowd lead them to the win. Then I thought, they can hang with Gallardo and crush the pen in game one. Then they can hang with Sabathia and maybe even beat him in game two. Maybe they slip up in game three, but watch as Blanton throws a gem in game four.
I’m going with the Phillies in four. I’m going with a win off Sabathia in game two.
But I’m not entirely sold, and I’ll be doubting my pick all day. And the next. And so on.
Posts: 0 Chris.I
Your absoltely right Tim. The Phils need to be patient with this kid, and take as many pitches as they can. If Cole does his thing, it should come down to the both bullpens. I’m so excited…Is it 3:00 yet?
Posted: 11:31 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 CT
This series is so impossible to call. We can scrutinize the numbers and stats all day, but what it comes down to is who wants it more, and who’s willing to go all out to take the series. Baseball’s a game of numbers, sure, but sometimes a little luck here and there can sway the tide of a game or series. I have a good feeling about the Phils, but I also have this nagging nervousness in the bottom of my gut. The suspense is killing me! LET’S GO PHILS!!!
Posted: 11:31 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 NC Jason
Tim ~
Any news of Pat’s back?
Posted: 11:35 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Scheity
BREAKING NEWS: Cole Hamels and Carlos Ruiz are the only rostered players who are gonna suit up today, batting 1-2 and letting the third through ninth spots in the order be default outs.
Posted: 11:44 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 ped
We’re gonna rock Gallardo. Starting him game 1 will prove to be a very poor decision. Go Phightins!
Posted: 11:44 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
No word on Burrell’s back. He’s getting a closer look before the game.
Posted: 11:45 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
Phils in 4 seems to be the popular pick. I don’t think I’m totally sold yet. This series is too tough to call. Game 1 is the key.
Posted: 11:56 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Jim
Just an intersting note, ESPN Experts made their picks this morning. Of the 15 or so, all but one (Howard Bryant?) had the Phillies beating the brewers. Interesting note however, none of them have the phillies beating either the cubs or dodgers.
Posted: 11:56 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Today is MUST win. If we lose today, we have to beat Sabathia at least once. We need to win this series on 4, or else we face Sabathia on regular rest in Game 5. He’ll throw 140 pitches if he needs to.
We need to win 3 of the first 4. Can we do it? yes, but I think we’ll lose the series in 5.
Go Phils!!
Posted: 11:57 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 SJ Mike
Watching Manuel’s press conference right now. They say Burrell’s decision will be made after batting practice today.
Apparently he’s ok, but he wants to test it out. Lower back strain they said.
Posted: 11:57 AM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I dont see the indecision here. They are flat out better than this team. The Phillies have better rotation depth, a deeper lineup that hits more consistently (despite their struggles) than the Brewers, and a much much better bullpen. Theres no doubting this one, the Phillies will win this series. Jamie Moyer will win game 3, cole will win today. its on myers as to whether or not there will be a sweep. The Phillies are winning this series.
Posted: 12:01 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Geoff, I like your optimism baby! You’re getting me pumped, let’s do it!!
Posted: 12:04 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Julie
Phils win the series…doesn’t matter to me how many games it takes. I’m not sure if people are giving enough credit to the Phils home field advantage. CBP is going to be going CRAZY today and tomorrow, and I think that has the potential to be a very big factor in rattling the young brew crew no matter how talented they are.
Posted: 12:04 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob Cowie
I’m outside the stadium now. Greengenes is rocking out and its crazy out here.
Posted: 12:18 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Rick
Rob – I can hear them on WIP online up here in MA. This internet thing is damn cool!
Posted: 12:24 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 bull
Let’s go Phils!!!!
Posted: 12:26 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I wish it was 2:37 instead of 12:37…
Posted: 12:30 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob Cowie
Hopefully the team can match the fans’ intensity
Posted: 12:32 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Chase Andrews
We need a great performance from Cole, but Chase has got to step up significantly from last year’s playoff performance
Posted: 12:33 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Now pitching for the Brewers, Something Gallardwho ??? Lets jump on this clown, and make him wish he didn’t come back from his injury
Posted: 12:37 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Paul
Game 1 seems like it is SUPER important. A loss today could be a killer…
Go Phils!
Posted: 12:50 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 grrrumpy miner
OK….Prediction time.Phils over Brewers in 4 (Phillies line up is not to be dismissed) as well as brewers shell shock from 3 weeks ago.Cubs over Dodgers in 5 (Managers with world series experience and the best team in the NL) Cubs will find a way to win.Angels over Red Sox in 5 (Sox are tough,but 2 west coast trips will kill them) Rays over chiSox in 3 (Rays want to prove they belong and Sox will eventually run out of gas) NLCS Cubs over Phils in 7 (This is the Cubs year,I say it goes long because of the Phils line-up but again,Cubs will find a way to win) ALCS Angels over Rays in 6 (Angels are a tough team plus the surging Rays looks good,Scoscia is the best manager in baseball and with the their pitching its a no brainer).Basically….if you want life to imitate art….Rent out the 1990 film Taking Care Of Business with Jim Belusi….Funny but basically predictable movie. Thats all for now.
Posted: 01:12 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well Yovani Gallardo has a lot of talent. At one time he was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Still, hes been hurt almost all year, theyre going to get on this guy. If they dont, then theyll get all over their bullpen because Gallardo wont go more than 6 innings because he hasnt been stretched out at all this year.
I usually get like this in the playoffs for all of our teams. Despite what weaknesses they may or may not have, theres nothing anyone can do about it now. The playoff rosters are set and everything is in place. So when you take an honest assessment of things, you see that the Phillies actually do stack up very well and are primed for a decent run at getting to the WS here.
Posted: 01:18 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
hahahah… after months and months and months.. you see that the Phillies actually do stack up very well priceless!!
Key to today is being patient at the plate, making Gallardo throw stirkes, and just throw a lot of pitches in general.. get to that bullpen.
I like the Phillies in 5 in this series.. and anything sooner would be AWESOME!
Posted: 01:22 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I think the phillies will go to the World Series and lose to the Angels or the Red Sox in 5 or 6 games. I think the Cubs are primed for a major, legendary choke job in the NLCS and I think the Phillies will be there to take advantage of that. Far too many stamina and/or health questions surround Zambrano and Harden. Without one of them, who do they send out there? I dont even know who their 5th starter is….jason marquis? eh, doesnt scare me. dempster…good but beatable, lilly…overrated and crushable, harden…only pitches 5 innings who cares…zambrano…injured, dominant when healthy though. So whats so unstoppable about the Cubs starting pitching? they can be beaten….The Dodgers might even beat them actually. I think thatd be a tougher matchup anyway.
Posted: 01:24 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Dempster is nasty this year, and Lilly has been awesome in his last few starts for them… and their lineup is THE most dangerous in baseball… don’t go overboard with your expectations, cause then you’ll be killing this team if they don’t live up to them..
They could easily beat any of these NL teams, or they could easily lose to any of them… lets just stay positive, one game at a time, unless they are eliminated
Posted: 01:31 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I just feel that they are better than these NL teams, thats all. Beyond that, I dont know.
Posted: 01:46 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
I just dont see the cubs doing, but who cares about teh cubbies.
Werth, Rollins, and shane should bunt everytime down the 1st baseline and force Galalardo to run to get the ball, He still would be faster then the fastest vegitarian alive, Princess Fielder
Posted: 02:02 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
We’re just not a good team right now. Brewbrew in 3.
In all seriousness…….I hate predictions, so I’m not touching this one.
I’m in agony right now because I wont get to watch Game 1 or 2…….I wont even be near a computer. Ugh…
Posted: 02:04 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Are the Phillies going with the alternate home jersey? It is a day game.
Posted: 02:05 PM on October 1, 2008
Posts: 0 The Sports Complex :: Blog Archive :: Afternoon Rounds: Brewers/Phils :: Philadelphia City Paper :: Philadelphia Arts, Restaurants, Music, Movies, Jobs, Classifieds, Blogs
[...] any to check in with the Phologosphere and make sure that everyone is as excited as I amTim Malcolm is ready to make a prediction.HHR has come to terms with Mitch Williams: ceremonial pitcher. He got me talked into it [...]
Posted: 02:28 PM on October 1, 2008