Comments on: Dempster Deal Poorly Sets Free Agent Market

By: SJ Phillies Fan

SJ Phillies Fan — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 15:35:59 +0000

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By: crashburnalley.com » Blog Archive » Somewhat of an Update

crashburnalley.com » Blog Archive » Somewhat of an Update — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 02:02:45 +0000

[...] Phillies Nation: Dempster Deal Poorly Sets Free Agent Market [...]

By: KM

KM — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:03:46 +0000

I agree with you Don M. Golson is almost major league-ready now, if he could just get him OBP up and cool off the strikeouts.

Golson is not Bourn, people. Bourn had nothing but speed and defense. Bourn never had pop in his bat, and never really had the inate ability to get on base. Golson is like a Bourn who can hit.

By: RichieAllen

RichieAllen — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:27:36 +0000

If we know we cant compete with The Big Checkbook teams’ dollars….How can we even keep Jamie Moyer?Will the home town interest keep him here?There is limited pitching out there ,and teams need it.
I dont think were going to give him more than 8/mil for 2 years,but if one of those teams gives him 3+years and more money,he’s probably gone.
I think he’s more valuable than wins and innings to the Phils.
Then again ,his best might be behind him.
I dont envy Amaro on this one.

By: NJ

NJ — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:56:18 +0000

We don’t have a shot at Oswalt right now, rumor is we’re back in the Burnett sweepsteaks with a low offer.

I’d be all for packaging Golson if we can add an upper tier starter or outfielder but it’s wishful thinking, I like the kid but there’s two guys just like him about a years development behind and for all the potential Golson has no plate vision. On a sideline Coco Crisp has been traded to the Royals, really don’t see us adding anything more than a Jason Michaels right now.

By: Don M

Don M — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:40:18 +0000

Greg Golson already has MLB-ready defense and speed, …not sure about his throwing-arm (i’d imagine its decent).. he can hit for average and has some pop in his bat

obviously, you’d like to see him strike out less. He’s a young guy, “toolsy”, with lots of upside, so i’d like to see them hang onto him, unless you can get a Garret Atkins, Jermaine Dye, etc…

By: The Dipsy

The Dipsy — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 12:13:28 +0000

Ponder Gentle Reader: If another pitcher comes, and he absolutely MUST if we are to be able to say we have a strong enough staff to contend for another WS via a trade, it may come via a trade. Hamels is a #1, but we have no #2. The other guys are all 3/4 types on really good teams. That said, perhaps lets start with Luke “I Am Your Father” Donald. Jammed at his position. If he can’t play third then lets trade him. His value is high and he won’t play for us.

Golson. He is starting to feel very Jeff Jackson-ish to me. His value is still on the high side but another year of striking will sap that. He can go.

Those guys as the centerpiece of a deal should garner you a lot. A third player of mild pedigree, big league or minors, could be involved.

NOTE: I hate parting with good prospects. Thats how the Braves get their players in a pinch. Thats the benefit of a good farm system. Play em or trade em for what ya need.

Does the name Roy Oswalt mean anything to anyone?

By: maxhole

maxhole — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:51:03 +0000

michael bourne helped us get lidge. if that slew of guys could get us someone who put out half the production lidge did, i think the team might win a few games

By: J cole

J cole — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:31:34 +0000

This name is bothering me… Greg Golson. It looks way too close to Michael Bourne. Here is a piece to any package, Golson and Kendrick. Throw in Coste or Condrey (or both) and I am still not complaining.

By: KM

KM — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 03:36:18 +0000

I think you used the right word when you said the chances of a big free agent for the Phillies was bleak.

Moyer could probably get 9mil + if he goes out into free agency, but hopefully we can get him back in the 7-8 million range. I wouldn’t mind a 2 year, 16 million, with 12 million guaranteed.

By: christopher

christopher — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 01:48:53 +0000

anyone who doesn’t think moyer deservers 7 mill is out of their minds. i’m totally fine with hamels / myers / moyer / blanton and the kids battling it out for the 5th start, i have been since the end of the regular season.

By: Memphis

Memphis — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:49:23 +0000

Interesting take on Lowe by Baseball Prospectus, briefly mentions Lowe’s potential at age 36 versus Greg Maddux’s production at the same age:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8316

BP seems to love Lowe, especially in front of a good infield like ours (as in Cy Young potential). If the statheads are right, and we can somehow get him, whatever the number, whatever the years, that would be nice. I do think 45/3 is likely a minimum, with a 4th year maybe being a clincher. Nice to dream about that rotation, Dipsy.

I would not give up on Kendrick. He’s young, he’s inconsistent, but he can get better at AAA. Not everyone is awesome in their first 30 starts (and he did win 11). I actually think we should trust Kendrick, Happ, or Carrasco to fill 1-2 slots in the rotation by second half 2009 or 2010 at the latest.

I would be shocked if Moyer gets a better deal than the 12.5/2 he signed with us 2 years ago. I could see 7 or 8 for one-year and a club option for a second year at 4 or 5, with an innings incentive to get it higher. Heck, if we got Lowe, I could see us reconsidering Moyer. His age is a risk, we can’t be blind to that. Anyway, I expect Moyer to be back, even if we overpay a few mill.

As for Howard, the argument against a big deal for him is about how sustainable his production will be and his value in the field. He may be a 40/120 guy for 5-8 years, a few guys can provide that, but he whiffs a ton, has trouble with lefties, and his defense is not good. The argument against him is a stathead argument, he’ll decline quicker than normal because of his weight and long swing, because he isn’t a high-average hitter, it’s more all or nothing. That’s not to say he won’t be a premier HR hitter for the next 5-8 years, he may be. There’s just higher risk to a player like that, that’s all. A 100/5 type of deal for him would be risky. There are solid arguments for and against it based on the type of player he is. I’d love to have him here long-term (if his defense doesn’t get worse), but not for Manny money.

By: mikemike

mikemike — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 00:19:15 +0000

This year they spent a little more on the mlb draft then didn’t do anything in the international draft. How can a Oakland spend 4 million on a top prospect and we don’t do anthing so many great players come out of that market. We instead go to brazil and australia and korea. we sign two korea players who are so bad the scout get fired. One of the difference is when we signed bell and others and had no first round choice or second. why didn’t we sign a high ceiling high school kid . you have to overpaid to get them to drop there committent to college, but its better than drafting a five foot 5 college player who can;t play like Moss and trying to sell that as a good pick. no it was a fourth round cheap alterantive to going after a hard to sign high school kid with a high ceiling. But they won once in 28 years so it’s okay. Remember as good as people think Blanton was he only gave them 6 of 16 quality starts. what happens if myers fall back to his old ways and blanton becomes another kenrick. I still believe we need a number2 more important than anyother position right now.

By: NJ

NJ — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:59:04 +0000

The Phils were praised for taking Savery as the insiders seem to think he fell though I agree the Phils aren’t putting near enough into the draft and international recruitment in particular. We seem to be stuck drafting like it’s still the 1990′s reaching at every stage with physical specimins rather than promising ballplayers. It’s amazing the a team that on the whole ranks outside the top third in total investment in the draft ranks near the top in average per player signed. Hewitt may turn into a great player but there are so many can’t miss prospects coming out and the Phils need to get active in legitimate fast-track prospects, teams that don’t get players up in waves don’t stay around at the top or long. Most of these guys are coming up at 22/23 and are producing at the major league level at a fraction of the cost.

All that said there’s a buzz around several of the guys who’ve been taken in the past two drafts.

By: mikemike

mikemike — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:39:48 +0000

Following the minors like I do people don’t fall in love with Golson or savery, Golson isn’t getting any better he is falling out OF favor and his only value right now is his speed, Savery was the easy sign not the best prospect or a top of the rotation starter. Any one who follows the draft knows about rice pitcher and how they struggle. the coach at rice is known for ruining pitcher, we drafted a hurt pitcher because he was a easy sign not based on talent, they did it with tyler mach when they had too many choices. and didn’t want to commit the money in the draft they took myler because he would sign cheap. as you know he quit this year after one season. he was overmatched. If they committed more to the draft and international draft then we would maybe have a replacemnt in line for left field or third base. instead we are trying all these crazy trade rumors and silly suggestion on what they will do. The phillies will try to resign burrell at there number if he bolts, then its a platoon system, if moyer goes it perez or carrasco .

By: NJ

NJ — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:51:18 +0000

On that last point it’ll open up a whole new thread probably but I don’t think we ‘pay’ Howard but we don’t have to make that call yet. He can hit better than anyone in the league if it’s put in his kitchen when he’s hot, but in almost every other area of the game he’s regressing at an alarming rate to the point at FA he could end up looking like Aubrey Huff if he doesn’t turn it around but still demanding Teix money. You don’t expect to see your elite bat attacked by pitching all year long and that’s what happened with Howard. We pay market value through arbitration then deal him for top talent and let someone else pay him the payroll crippling deal he’ll be asking for unless he heads back into Pujols territory.

By: Chuck P

Chuck P — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:38:05 +0000

Lowe would be a nice fit… I would be shocked if Moyer got 18/2. I think that the teams that might be willing to go 18/2 are the teams that aren’t interested in a 45 y/o slowballer. Those teams are looking at AJ Burnett and his 98 MPH fastball and high K ratio with an open checkbook. You know what I say… they can have Burnett. I think that we’re heading into spring with Myers as our #2 and a stop-gap #5 (Moyer will be back as our #3). I think that we’re going to need a pitcher at some point but we have a couple of guys on the farm that can fill in if need be (Happ and Eaton… let’s hope it doesn’t get to that). If we can get Lowe for cheap, then I would be willing to bring him in but I still think that we need a bat in the OF pretty badly. I’ll pass on Atkins… he’s not going to protect Howard at all. Frankly, there aren’t many OF on the market which makes it tough. It might have to be a trade that gets it done… Marson, Golson or Happ (if we get a SP; if we don’t we’re gonna need him)…

I POSTED THIS ON ANOTHER BOARD WHEN SOMEONE SAID THAT THEY WOULD LET HOWARD WALK RATHER THAN PAY HIM…

Like everyone else, I’m guilty of one major violation of the unwritten rules of “fanhood.” Time and time again, I cross the line of fanhood, into the world of business. It’s in my nature (I’m an investment advisor by trade)… I feel like I need to help allocate the owners’ monies wisely but the reality is I’m just a fan and those owners are doing just fine. So rather than plea for the players that would help my team win a championship, I settle for scenarios that make good business sense. Let me tell you this, I want Ryan Howard on my team no matter what it costs. Yes, it might eat into David Montgomery’s bottom line but why should that matter to me? He might even lose money one year… isn’t that how business works? To say that he’s going to make Yankee-money is a slap in the face to our fan base. Haven’t we earned the right to know that our organiztion is dedicated to winning championships? Ryan Howard’s contract is about this team letting us know that they’re going to do whatever it takes to get us there again and again and again. Sign the kid… and sign Magglio, too while they’re at it! LET’S GO PHILLIES!!

By: Manny

Manny — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:36:12 +0000

And don’t even get me started with the risks of one of our pitchers getting injured… Just imagine what would happen to our rotation if Hamels gets injured, like has been the case for him nearly every year except ’08… Maybe I’m too risk-averse, but we cannot just hope that our current starting rotation will have a 2008-type year. We’ve been SO LUCKY. Hamels didn’t get injured despite all the innings he pitched. Moyer had a stellar year. Myers came up from the minor leagues firing. Blanton was a hit. When Kendrick began sucking (after getting ELEVEN wins), Happ was a hit.

It’s almost too good to be true. And here we are, settling for BLAH…

By: maxhole

maxhole — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:30:38 +0000

all it takes is a little digging to see what the mets want. the most recent talk on metsblog is the yanks will make an offer for lowe that the mets cant match. then again they also commented that they might offer burrell a contract (burrell in blue, really?)

i like what don says about our rotation too. phils have quality new heads coming around. i wouldnt even count out kendrick. i keep seeing lowe the sinkerballer this and that. how many of you have forgotten how foolish kendricks sinker makes guys look when he’s on. he would make for a good trade at least. then we still have happ who owned this year, and carrasco coming up. a consistent #2 would be great, but not necessarily most important. find a fill for burrell who puts up similar numbers. ——-> jermaine dye

By: Richie

Richie — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:22:56 +0000

I honestly think that the absolute #1 priority to start the offseason, before signing free agents should have been Ruben Amaro walking into Cole Hamels’ home and saying”Cole give me the next six years of your life and here is a blank check.” Him, Utley, and Victorino in that order are the only players that cannot be replaced on this team. Period. End of story!!