Holliday As A Phillie: How 2008 Would’ve Looked
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, November 07, 2008 12:50 PM | Comments: 67
Posts
As the hot stove burns and the Matt Holliday pot starts to boil, you start to look deeper, fishing for reasons to say, “Yes! Let’s do it!” or “No! No freakin’ way!”
One major point that gets great scrutiny is the Coors Field effect. In his 2007, MVP-quality season, Holliday hit .376 with 25 HR and 82 RBI in Denver. On the road? He hit .301 with 11 HR and 55 RBI.
The Coors Field effect has affected many hitters in history — before Denver, Dante Bichette was a mild-mannered 15-HR hitter. In Denver, he averaged 30 homers and a .315 average over seven seasons. How about Andres Galarraga? He hit .243 for Saint Louis in 1992. In 1993, he hit Denver and hit .370.
So, if Holliday were to play for the Phillies, would the Phils be victim of the Coors Field effect?
I looked at his 2008 statistics. Holliday had a bit of a down campaign, aided by a 15-day DL stint. Still, it was a fine season, and I reconfigured his statistics to show how he’d fare if a Phillie and not a Rockie. How?
- I took averages of Holliday’s H, HR, RBI, BB and K per game at shared ballparks, then applied those averages in accordance of the amount of games the Phillies played at those ballparks.
- At non-shared ballparks I took Holliday’s season averages and applied them. Note: Holliday didn’t play at Citizens Bank Park in 2008, so all those numbers are taken from season averages.
- I factored in the 15-day DL stint, and three days Holliday missed in September. (This means Holliday would’ve played 70 games in Philadelphia, not a full 81.)
Here are the comparisons:
2008 Holliday w/COL : .321 AVG / 25 HR / 88 RBI / 74 BB / 104 K
2008 Holliday w/PHI : .314 AVG / 25 HR / 80 RBI / 87 BB / 116 K
The differences aren’t too wild, but you can see Holliday loses some production by playing away from Denver, and especially from playing away from San Francisco, San Diego, Arizona and Los Angeles. You can also see his walks and strikeouts both increase. Obviously, if Holliday plays for the Phillies, he’d have some decent protection around him (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard), so these numbers could be very different. So does this all say “No! No freakin’ way!” Well, not quite.
Posts: 0 Dennis
No freakin’ way!…..SHOULD WE NOT DO THIS!!!! Let’s find a way to get him by keeping Vic and Werth! And yes I consider Werth a “core” player as well.
Posted: 01:15 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
How would you make up a line up if you have Holliday in it? Bat him 4th to separate Utley and Howard?
Posted: 01:16 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Dennis
By the way, did anyone see that they are having a “one night only” in theatres on Monday the 24th, the story of the 2008 world champion Phillies! I got tickets to the show at the Bridge Cinema Delux downtown where they are having a red carpet special with the trophy and everyone that attends gets a copy of the DVD. Going to be a good time I think….
Posted: 01:17 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
If youre talking having to guve up marson, carrasco, shane or werth, then no freakin way. if you can get them to settle for a golson happ type of deal then it would maybe be worth looking into.
Posted: 01:18 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Carrasco is a #3 or #4 starter and Marson is a nice OBP Catcher and good defender who may make an all-star game or 2. There are no Utleys, Howards or Hamels in our minor league system. Jason Donald is a nice player, but he’s a 2B and won’t hit enough to merit playing 3B everyday.
Carrasco, Taylor and Donald for one year of Holliday and 2 early draft picks (once Holliday leaves). Would everyone do that trade?
Posted: 01:22 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
not for one of if not thee top pitching prospect in the league … no.
Posted: 01:27 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 JimC
Donald doesn’t have enough power to play third? But pedro feliz does? I like donald I think he will be fine and if he doesn’t hit the home runs and knock in the rbis from third their getting the production from a non power position of 2nd base
Posted: 01:30 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
There is NO way that Carrasco is a top 3 pitching prospect in the league. I like him too, but he’s not a top 40 prospect in all of baseball right now. I’m not even sure I would make this move, but Carrasco is not a future ace (unfortunately).
Posted: 01:31 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
NO…the whole point of getting a LF to replace burrell is to buy TWO years for matthew taylor to be ready in the first place!!!!!!!! thats your LF of the future. trading him for one year of holliday, AND trading carrasco (2 or 3 starter at worst once he reaches his prime) for ONE year of one guy is just absolutely a horrible idea. maybe if they signed japense prospect junichi tazawa itd make the trade more bearable to replace carrasco as the top pitching prospect, but sitll…no
im talking JA Happ, Greg Golson, and filler for holliday. but the rockies wont do that so time to stop this nonsensical talk and get on to another player of interest.
Posted: 01:33 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
My point about Donald is that he’s more valuable to another team than he would be to the Phillies because he can play 2B, a position where defense is a priority and any above average hitting is a bonus.
It’s like having a two really good hitting catchers and making one of them a 1B. Wouldn’t it make sense to trade one of the catchers to another team and get some pitching or something? Donald is much more valuable as a 2B than he is as a 3B. He should be a good average hitter with some (but not a lot) of power.
Posted: 01:34 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I heard the phillies are trying to pry matt cain away from the giants (hence the j-roll trade talk) so i wouldnt go getting rid of donald too fast.
though that rumor might be as ridiculous as the holliday rumors.
Posted: 01:35 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Well, Tim, did you factor in the fact that he would only be A ONE YEAR RENTAL!?!??!?!?!
No way, No Holliday! They will want Victorino or Werth or at least 2 prospects… NO WAY!
Posted: 01:47 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 pb
hey tim,
Not sure if you heard yet, the Phillies announced some Front Office moves
http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20081107&content_id=3669874&vkey=pr_phi&fext=.jsp&c_id=phi
Posted: 01:48 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
apparently the cardinals are willing to give up ryan ludwick in the package. already their deal seems to hold more value than ours.
Posted: 02:08 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
If the Rockies think Ludwick is going to repeat his career year, then they are more stupid than I thought. Ludwick is a fluke. Great job by the Cardinals on selling high.
Posted: 02:12 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Even if ludwick turn out to be a fraud too, I agree that right now their package has more value. because im sure amaro told them hands off victorino and werth. without those two they would NOT have even got to the WS.
Posted: 02:14 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
well…in the way that they did
Posted: 02:15 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Dennis
Ryan Ludwick is a one year wonder! He is going to be 31 by next season….Rockies are trying to stabilize their future, how does their deal hold more value?
Posted: 02:16 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
I agree Dennis, I’m not sure why the Rockies would want a 31 year old outfielder who no one had heard of before this year.
Posted: 02:19 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
it holds more value because there’s no way amaro offers victorino or werth. it’s going to be any combo of carrasco, golson, marson, happ with whoever else you can think of.
THAT’S why it holds more value, dennis.
Posted: 02:19 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Dennis
But this trade is for their future Mike T. I don’t understand why they would want a 31 yr. old one year wonder?
Posted: 02:20 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
If they trade Holliday for Ludwick, that’s a joke. If you trade your best player, then you should go into rebuilding mode and plan for the future. How does taking away Holliday and adding Ludwick make that team better? How are they going to contend? I don’t get it.
Posted: 02:26 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 dan da man
Look lets face it…This is just rumors were talking about! The sh*t isn’t going down…PERIOD…I knew it the instant Vic, and Werths name was mentioned. I was just reading the Mets blogs, and there all hoping we make the trade, because apparently one year of Holliday would scare them less, than never having to deal with Victorino again. Vic is nat to other teams, and there right! It’s like owning a dream house, and giving it away just to rent and live in another for one for a year…Just doesn’t make sense.
Posted: 02:28 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Chris.I
Well said Dan. If the trade doesn’t involve ”prospects” alone, than this is clearly not for us. Amaro should just move on, and go after pitching, cause there is nothing else out there thats too appealing right now. Everything else is like you said…why rent a dream house when you already have one..well said my man.
Posted: 02:33 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
dennis, i don’t know what to tell you. ask charlie or mac.
Posted: 02:35 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
tim, i don’t think it’s coors field. yes, it used to be a hitters park, but it is no longer.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/08/17/sports/ROCKIES.php
If you don’t have time to read that, it explains that the Rockies organization bought a machine to keep the balls damp because of the thin, dry air there. Since this machine started being used, Coors has become a pitchers park.
Posted: 02:41 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
Griffen, just FYI … Baseball America ranked Carrasco 17th overall pitching prospect in 2008. Considering the 36+ innings pitched, 1.72 era, and 11.2 K’s per 9 in. for the Iron Pigs this year and the already dominant start hes having to with the Venezuelan Winter League (19 in 2.84 era), how does he exactly drop to below 40? I still don’t get why anyone would think to even consider giving him up for Holliday and yet another reason to interact with Scott Boras.
Posted: 02:41 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
So my point is that your 1992 stats are kinda meaningless.
Posted: 02:42 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
Ludwick makes no sense whatsoever, they would get an older player signed for a year and half the talent. Why not keep Holliday? I say ship Happ, kendrick, golson, drabek, any of that combination and see what holds water. What do ya think about trading Ruiz for him, Holliday, although he is a rental, is in a contract year and could absolutley solidify a solid lineup. Ok, so Ruiz had a good postseason, right, so sell high on him. How many people were looking for Marson to take over on opening day ’09. That he calls a good game BS is exactly that, I heard Marson calls a good game too. Look at Ruiz’ production in the regular season, Marson can’t atleast duplicate that. Happ and Ruiz probably get the deal done. I’d do it.
Posted: 02:43 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Snowdin, everything I have read says he’s a future #3 starter. My point is that he’s not going to be an ace. I never said I would trade him for Holliday, I’m just trying to keep people’s expectations of him realistic. He’s not a top 3 pitching prospect.
Posted: 02:45 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
happ, kendrick, eaton, condrey and dobbs. BOOM, see ya. get holliday his jersey.
Posted: 02:46 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Why would the Rockies want a 30 year old catcher?
Posted: 02:46 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
And the Rockies have a very good catching prospect as well. They’re trying to get rid of Torrealba to make room for their prospect.
Posted: 02:47 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
“calls a good game BS” ???? id say that the phillies team ERA being 3.68 with Ruiz behind the plate and 4.77 without him for the 2008 regular season isn’t exactly BS.
Posted: 02:47 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Chris.I
The Rockies have iannetta and torrealba in the backstop..I don’t think either Ruiz or Marson would be needed. There looking to move both Holliday, and Taveras, and they would be asking for an OF to replace either one…Plus pitching! Trust me! This isn’t going to happen.
Posted: 02:50 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Phillies Phan SC
First, might I say you have a lot of time on your hands LOL. Second, great job on it, seriously. I also agree, we HAVE to keep the core of the team in tact. Happ has his ring, I would be willing to trade him, but NOT Vic or Werth. I also do not agree to trade Kendrick. I think he is up and coming and has a future.
Posted: 02:51 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Chooch is a great caller of the game and will be our starter in ’09.
No one wants Kendrick. Eaton has negative value. The Phillies could not give him away right now. No one wants to trade their superstar for our slop.
Posted: 02:51 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
fair enough griffen, about carassco. we dont wanna turn him into another Gavin Floyd. And yeah … the Rockies are not going to want another catcher … they’ve been trying to dump Torrealba for two years now. The only reason they signed him last offseason was becuase they thought they were going to make the playoffs on 08.
either way, i think the point is that the phillies are going to wait to see what kind of offers Burrell is going to get and see if they can match it and afford him. If not, i gotta go with Hairston Jr. This is low-risk high potential that makes me a lot more comfortable that this joke of a trade rumor with holliday.
Posted: 02:54 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 The Voice of Reason
I think most of would agree that Pat Burrell is the best option on the table right now for LF. 3 years 33 million get it done?
Posted: 02:55 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
Their superstar that they won’t have in a year. The point is everyone wants to crown ruiz this great game caller, so is Marson. Ruiz was going to be battling for a job next year he has a good not great month, albeit the postseason and now he’s Pudge Rodriguez. Wake up, he will be hitting .210 come June and Marson gets his shot. Mark my words. How many people on this site were calling for Coste to get the majority of the starts and then when Marson was on a fast track they wanted him in there. You can’t hit .210 in the major leagues, I don’t care what game ya call.
Posted: 02:58 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
does anyone know what teams might try and make a play for burrell? I’m thinking maybe the Angels if they can’t bring back Juan Rivera or Teixeira.
Posted: 03:00 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
a lineup without either pat the bat or holliday sounds ugly
Posted: 03:00 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Chris.I
Being realistic here, If the Phillies dont pick up either Holliday, or Burrell. I think there probably going to go with Rivera, and maybe Lowe. It would be the smartest thing to do if we wanted to save our farm system.
Posted: 03:01 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
Before every game there is a strategy in place to face a lineup, the pitcher and catcher know this ahead of time. The catcher calls the pitch, but the pitcher has to agree and more importantly execute and command the pitch. Do ya think that has something to do with them being the best pitching staff in the league, Maybe?
Posted: 03:07 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
okay ritchie … let’s say we give it a shot and you prove us all wrong and marson gets his start with a manager who prefers veterens and a pitching staff with very few innings with him. You’d seriously trade three or four base hits a week for almost 2 more runs allowed per game?
Mark my words… without Ruiz, Hamels doesnt come close to the kind of season he had, myers would be hangin out with eaton and moyer retires last season, and lidge leaves his lights on.
I love marson and he needs to get some at bats definately… but i think everybody agrees that the kid needs to prove himself beyond AAA with a last or mid season call up before he’s even considered to take Ruiz’ job.
Posted: 03:08 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
a job by the way that won us a world championship.
Posted: 03:10 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Ruiz helps the pitching staff more than he hurts the lineup.
Posted: 03:10 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
i couldnt agree more griffen
Posted: 03:12 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
And does anyone have a clue what they’re gonna do with Eaton? Pay him his 6 or 8 mil to be the opening day starter for the Allentown Iron Pigs?
Posted: 03:16 PM on November 7, 2008
Posts: 0 Richie
Wait a second, Hamels isn’t Hamels without Ruiz, Moyer who has been pitching for 30 years can’t pitch without Ruiz, are you kidding me???? I like Ruiz, I was screaming Choooch at every playoff game, but you have to give something up to get something. People are high on Ruiz right now, but we know the real Ruiz. We don’t know the real Marson yet. He has caught Carrasco and Happ, he has a good mentor in Coste, he is a better defensive catcher. What if he turns out to be a Mauer or McCann? Ruiz is not responsible for 2.00 in ERA for our staff, I am a Ruiz fan, but sell high on these guys, you can tell Marson’s a ballplayer. Take a shot, I’ll call the game wih Hamels, and tell me how you pitch around Utley, Holliday then Howard with Rollins and Vic on base. That isn’t an easy task now is it?
Posted: 03:16 PM on November 7, 2008