John Sickels’ Top 20 Prospects
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, November 12, 2008 04:36 PM | Comments: 37
Posts
John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated his top 20 Phillies prospects. You can view the whole thing here. And here’s his list:
1. Carlos Carrasco
2. Michael Taylor
3. Travis D’Arnaud
4. Jason Donald
5. JA Happ
6. Dominic Brown
7. Zach Collier
8. Jason Knapp
9. Joe Savery
10. Lou Marson
11. Kyle Drabek
12. Greg Golson
13. Drew Naylor
14. Mike Stutes
15. Vance Worley
16. Antonio Bastardo
17. Anthony Gose
18.Chance Chapman
19.Anthony Hewitt
20. Jeremy Slayden
A little miffed about Marson — no way he should be rated that low. Surprised Chapman made the list. I’ll contribute my own list soon, but this is your first year-end prospect list, so check it out.
Posts: 0 Jim
Marson is very surprsing. People are saying he doesn’t have enough power to be a catcher. How is catching a power-hitting position!! It’s not. Catchers only average about 15 home runs a year with an average around .250. He hits .280 with >400 obp and they say hes not good enough at the plate!!
THe biggest surprise should be JA Happ though. He should be #1 or #2, considering he already had some big league time and pitched pretty well, including a big game vs the mets early on in the season.
Posted: 04:56 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Paul
While D’Arnaud looks very promising, he is a long ways away. I’d swap places with him and Marson, then the list would look more correct to me.
Posted: 05:11 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 OZ
no Andrew Carpenter? i know he regressed last year, but was strong the year before, and still a pretty recent first round pick, no?
Posted: 05:26 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 OZ
P.S. Anyone have/post an objective (Baseball America for example) list of prospects?
i’d love to see where are prospects land across all teams…
Posted: 05:27 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
I’m really shocked Marson isn’t our #1 prospect.
Posted: 05:30 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Justin
Not that he doesn’t deserve it for the great season he had but Michael Taylor kind of surprises me as #2, over marson, donald, and Happ, i will agree d’arnaud is a little highly overrated at this point, but I like Michael Stutes being a part of the top 20. That kid looks pretty good.
Posted: 05:39 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
How is Taylor in the field? It’s tough to imagine someone the size of Ryan Howard in the outfield.
Posted: 06:05 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Justin
He’s Pat Burrell only more fluid he’s not running in quick sand. Saw him play at the SAL All Star Game.
Posted: 06:14 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
These lists are all relative. Sickels seems to be going by overall potential, not just recent success. Taylor has always been highly regarded and projected. He seems to be the first toolsy draft pick in recent years that has really panned to this point.
The BA list doesn’t come out for another month. I’d assume your top 10 anywhere will contain a combination of Carrasco, Marson, Taylor, Donald, Happ, Savery, Drabek, d’Arnaud and Brown. The wild card might be Knapp, or Naylor, or Collier, or Golson.
Posted: 06:19 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Jim
I think Marson is so low because we haven’t had a steady catcher who can hit and play defense since Mike Lieberthal retired. Ruiz’s recent upcomings not withstanding
Posted: 06:26 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Sam
I don’t know how many of you post on phillies.com, but in the prospect thread there, theres a poster who says hes a pro scout. I believe him because he’s been first on a lot of things regarding the phillies minor league and such, and he knows his stuff.
Anyway, his take on Marson is that he has a potentially below average arm. This is the first I am hearing about this, I had always heard he was highly regarded as a defensive catcher.
Does anybody have any thoughts on this discrepancy?
Posted: 06:31 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
Jim, prospect ratings don’t take into account whose ahead of them in the organizations depth chart, so it shouldn’t matter if we have Ruiz or not.
Posted: 06:40 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 hamels' left hand
zach collier and jason knapp are looking like good picks in ’08…and did u guys read what he wrote about Hewitt?
Posted: 06:54 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Whos John Sickel?
Posted: 07:48 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
After seeing that list. he is a horse a###. drew naylor , slayden if they are in your top twenty you are in trouble.
Posted: 08:11 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Fire
So I saw a list of minor league free agents and there are a couple guys who might be worth taking a flier on for a spring training invite if nothing else…
RHP Claudio Vargas
INF Ruben Gotay
3B Morgan Ensberg
RHP Franklin German
LHP Dan Haigwood
Anyway, just a thought. It doesn’t hurt – Vargas has potential and there’s always a chance that someone like Ensberg can find his stroke again… it wasn’t so long ago that he was hitting 35+ homers for Houston.
Posted: 08:23 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Amanda
Wow, Marson is pretty low. I thought he’d be 2 or 3.
Posted: 08:28 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 christopher
what is he basing his opinion of hewitt on? does anyone know what type of numbers he put up last season?
this guy sounds like he’s mostly talking out of his ass.
Posted: 09:21 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Jeff
First, I don’t think Happ should even be on the list. As far as I’m concerned he’s a bigleaguer now. He was on all the playoff rosters and clearly has the inside track for the #5 spot. I also find it interesting how far and how fast Golson’s stock is falling.
Posted: 10:21 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 John Fire
christopher – check out Anthony Hewitt’s numbers on Baseball Cube. He hit .197, struck out 55 or so times in 33 games to go along with 1 homer and 9 ribbies. Also made seven errors in that span at third base… think his fielding percentage was .848. So yeah, Hewitt had a pretty rough go of it.
Posted: 10:41 PM on November 12, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
Interesting take on the Phils from Baseball Prospectus:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8300
Recommendeds biting the bullet and signing Burrell — not because it’s a good move in itself — because the alternatives are worse. Says Happ or Kendrick can hold down the 5th spot in the rotation and maybe Carrasco will be ready for the stretch if needed.
Posted: 12:08 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 christopher
ah thanks john, didn’t know where to check for stats on hewitt’s level. that’s pretty rough, but he’s very young and has plenty of time to improve.
Posted: 12:16 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I’d almost rather spend the money on pitching, and not bring back Burrell. I’m not sold on Moyer in 2009, and am worried the combination of Happ, Kendrick and Eaton won’t produce a solid No. 4 or 5.
Also, that Prospectus article says the Mets should look at RJ Swindle for bullpen help. Uhhh …
Posted: 12:45 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Tim…Im totally on board with that.. sure, you gotta bring back more for a one year deal with some kind of an option, but im getting some good backup if im amaro. maybe that garrett atkins trade isnt such a bad idea. i mean…its cheap and it frees up some money to go after a starting pitcher if they want. id even rather then sign someone to bump happ to the pen and moyer to the 5 just so that they can have depth. if someone gets hurt or moyer breaks down then you plug happ in the 5th spot. or even carrasco.
they have the money now to buy themselves the luxury of starting pitching depth. quality depth at that.
Posted: 01:10 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
In a chat on Baseball Prospectus, King of the Statheads Joe Sheehan tossed out that Lowe could go something like “22-5 with a 2.88 ERA and win the NL Cy Young” if he pitched in front of the Phils infield. One man’s opinion, but that’d be niiiiiice.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=545
They also like Donald on the site, but as a middle infielder, not a 3B or corner OF…so ultimately a nice trading piece in their minds.
Lowe would be my top priority if I were Amaro. I’d be cool with a Lowe/Baldelli off-season, and bring back Moyer and/or Burrell only on very favorable terms. If we wanted Burrell, I’m a little surprised the deal isn’t done or close to being done, and it certainly doesn’t seem that way.
Posted: 01:28 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Phillies Phan SC
Just FYI, more on Burrell and Moyer. JAMIE – IF YOU SEE THIS PLEASE RE-SIGN! I for one want you back in Philly!
With Scott Eyre resigned, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. turned his attention toward retaining 16-game winner Jamie Moyer, the two sides continue to focus on dollars and years. It is believed that the soon-to-be 46-year-old is seeking a multiyear deal. The chances are 50-50 that Moyer will agree to a deal before testing the open market, though he’s made it clear that Philadelphia is his first choice. He grew up in Sellersville, Pa., and attended Souderton High School.
On the Pat Burrell front, Amaro said he has contacted the left fielder’s agents and expressed the Phillies’ interest in bringing him back. It is doubtful that dollars or length were discussed in those initial discussions, and Burrell will likely be available to all teams by this weekend. If Burrell returns, it will likely have to be with a short-term contract, and for less money than he can get elsewhere, i.e. a hometown discount. — Ken Mandel
http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/11/eyre_back_moyer_next.html
Posted: 04:42 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Phillies Phan SC
Tim,
Why don’t we try trading Eaton to the Mets then since they want so much help. We can take an outfield prospect LOL. Heck we’ll pull a Manny and pay his salary too!
Kidding really, I don’t think we can unload Eaton.
Posted: 04:44 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Were stuck with Eaton in the minors until his contract is up at the end of the season. maybe some desperate team like the pirates will take him if we eat some of his salary. i mean, the pirates are salivating over paul byrd, for goodness sakes.
I think theyre letting Burrell walk and that theyre trying to resign Moyer but its not as automatic as they and everyone else expected.
Lowes going to get a huge money offer too I think. The Phillies should save some money by trading for Atkins to play LF, and then spending the rest of their money on starting and relief pitching. they need to create some rotation depth here.
Posted: 09:35 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
Fill me in on Stutes…I dont know much about him. Also, I just don’t get the feeling that Drabek will ever see the bigs as a solid SP. I’d rate him alot lower on my board.
Posted: 10:25 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Stutes was drafted this year out of Oregon State and so far looks insanely good, I’m not sure how hard he throws but he keeps the ball down and his WHIPs really low. Hewitt’s a headscratcher reminiscent of CJ Henry but it looks like the 2008 draft could produce some real high-end prospects without the typical knocks on our guys coming up. Am really intrigued by D’Arnaud.
If Drabek sees the majors it won’t be as a solid SP, we’ve been wondering where our Joba/Sarm is and Drabeks the guy, he’s recovered from tommy john and aftering getting some work in between rookie and a-ball he’s meant to be doing pretty darn well in winter ball right now… Drabek’s got the highest ceiling of any Phillies prospect.
I’ve suspected for a while Golson would drop some with Brown and Berry rising and it does make me wonder why we shipped out Cardenas and held onto Golson.
Anyone got an update on Maitheson?
Posted: 10:51 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
Hewitt has had his struggles.
I saw D’Arnauld catch at Williamsport for 2 games, I am impressed, he went 2 for 4 and 3 for 4 in the games I saw and seemed to never be flailing at pitches, he did strike out twice in a game but they were “good” strike outs.
I think D’Arnauld is going to be a good catcher with potential for pardon the expression “Lights out” defense.
Want to get anyones opinion on this…
I brought up the idea last year, prior to the season begining, of trading Howard for Lincecum straight up?
Honestly I never thought Lincecum would get this good this quickly
Posted: 11:28 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
NJ…Last I read second surgery was sucessful but the problem is that TJ surgery has a success rate of approximitly 70%, however a second TJ lowers the rate to about 35%.
It is a shame, I think he had dominate closer written all over him.
Posted: 11:29 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Eb don’t give up on him yet, he’s throwing in games for I think it’s 4 months now and there’s been no sign his arms breaking down.
Posted: 11:35 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 mikem
What would let you come on this site and say Drabek isn’t a sp. The kid is lights out right now and doesn’t even have all his velocity back and is not throwing his breaking ball a lot. He is there top sp prospect. The only pitcher right now .that they have who is a true number 1. plus he is only 21.
Posted: 11:51 AM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
I wont give up on him, it is just with success rate droping on second surgery, I am getting my hopes ip
Posted: 12:48 PM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
The problem with the surgeries is getting the pitchers back on the mound, that’s not the issue with Drabek now since his rehab was successful.
Posted: 12:51 PM on November 13, 2008
Posts: 0 From Section 113
The reason Hewitt is getting the love is simple…he’s a high risk, toolsy player. He’s extremely athletic and fast. The question is can he hit the ball. And unfortunately we won’t know for awhile. He will continue to be praised and will continue to get the benefit of the doubt because he is held by alot of scouts in high regards. Even if thoose same scouts don’t believe in his bat they still see his tools and athleticism to give him a huge boost.
Remember, its not so easy switching from a metal bat to a wood bat.
As for Marson, I believe the problem with power, ala Soto this year, is that it can develop late with catchers. Also, Sickels just doesn’t pan Marson he does give his reasons. His BABIP could have been a fluke has he put it which led to a high avg. It’s also pointed out that his grade may have been slightly low but he wants to see him do it again. Basically if he performs this yr, Sickels will be on board. It’s also relative to his position. Marson is not helped out that right now he is being graded against Matt Wieters, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, JP Arencibia, Tyler Flowers, Carlos Santana, Taylor Teagarden who are all really good catching prospects in their own right. Especially the top 2 which look to be studs right now
**mikem- Alot of people have said Drabek could profile as a closer. I think he has to be given the chance to start but might end up there. He has the chance to be the best player out of all our prospects.
Posted: 12:57 PM on November 13, 2008