Look Low-Risk For Starting Pitching Options
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, November 10, 2008 10:34 AM | Comments: 25
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Ruben Amaro Jr. told both Comcast SportsNet’s “Daily News Live” and the Inquirer that he hopes Carlos Carrasco and JA Happ find jobs in the pitching staff in 2009.
Continuing, Amaro said he’s favors the rotation right now:
“I like the way our rotation sets up right now, at the top of our rotation, especially with the emergence of Brett. Brett made it turn the corner for us. You can’t have enough pitching. But I have a feeling what CC’s asking for may be a little north of where we want to go. We have to keep our core intact. Bringing a guy like CC in may be difficult, putting that percentage of his salary on our payroll.”
He’s talking, obviously, about CC Sabathia, the free agent hurler who might command a $100M deal. I agree with Amaro that a Sabathia contract is one you don’t want on your books, especially with a slew of young marquee names wanting to be paid.
So as it stands, the Phils are walking into 2009 with Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Joe Blanton at the top of the rotation. Jamie Moyer is about an 80 percent affirmative, as the Phils are seeking to lock him up soon. The fifth starter could be Carrasco or Happ, while there’s lingering possibility that Kyle Kendrick reclaims his spot in the rotation (Amaro wasn’t too high on Kendrick when talking about the rotation). Adam Eaton remains an outside shot.
I’m not against a Hamels-Myers-Blanton-Moyer rotation to start the season, with one of the young kids trying to win the No. 5 spot. But I’d be careful — last season the Phillies were lucky to play an entire season without one starting pitching injury. That might not be the case this season. Moreover, I’m not completely confident Myers will continue his second-half success, and that Moyer will attain another 16-win, 3.71-ERA season.
Initial Options
Scott Lauber spoke to a major league scout who said the Phils should sign a Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster:
“If I was him, I’d take the $14 million [Burrell's 2008 salary] and sign a Derek Lowe or a Ryan Dempster. They need to get a front-line pitcher. Myers, for me, is a No. 3. They need a guy to go with Hamels and give them a combination like [Boston's Josh] Beckett and Daisuke [Matsuzaka].”
I don’t disagree with that, either, but there are counter arguments. Lowe is 35 and likely seeking a multiyear deal, but would fair well as a low-ball pitcher at Citizens Bank Park. Dempster has said he’d like to stay with the Cubs. But here are two names on which I’d much rather focus: Randy Wolf and Brad Penny.
Finally healthy for the first time since Eric Milton was pitching alongside him, Wolf recorded a 4.30 ERA for San Diego and Houston. He’s low-risk and high-reward, as he’ll be seeking a deal around $7M per season and could slide into the middle of the rotation with ease. Meanwhile, Penny had a horrendous 2008 campaign (6-9, 6.27 ERA), but is a clear low-risk/high-reward guy. He’ll also be worth around $7M or $8M per season, and is absolutely still a Cy Young-caliber pitcher.
Maybe Penny would take a two-year deal. If he doesn’t pan out, he doesn’t pan out. But if he performs close to his expected level, he’s a bonafide top-line starter, and the Phils will be set for 2009.
So while it wouldn’t be horrible for the Phillies to start 2009 without an addition, they could make one that can potentially reap gigantic results.

















Posts: 0 Gavin
Lowe is going to be in a bidding war b/n the Yanks and Sox, so no chance on him. I’d love to have him though.
Dempster is a one year wonder IMHO.
Wolf has gone public about how much he hates CBP. As much as I wanted him this time last year, I say no, unless is bargain basemant prices.
Penny is an overpaid/overrated Joe Blanton. I think we’re good there.
I’d rather give Carrasco and Happ and chance and resign Burrell. Trade Kendrick for another OF piece if Burrell leaves.
Posted: 10:48 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 From Section 113
Penny isn’t a crazy idea but is his attitude right for Philly. Didn’t Torre and the DOdgers get fed up with Penny because he didn’t try to rehab? I thought I read/heard somewhere he ind of gave up on the season and that bothered the Dodgers, and if true would bother me too.
Posted: 10:50 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Gavin
What about Sheets? With his injury history seems like you could get him for reasonable price/years. Obviously Amaro wouldnt go beyond 3 years with him.
Posted: 10:59 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Doesn’t look like the years will be the problem with Sheets so much as the money short-term, he’s going to rake it in short-terms somewhere like Houston and our money could be put to better uses.
Posted: 11:23 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Get Lowe!
That’s all I have to say.
Posted: 11:29 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
If Sheets didnt break down AGAIN last season id be ok with getting him…but now its too much of a risk. penny was once a cy young award winner if i remember correctly, but hes really fallen far. MAYBE if you got him on a cheap one year deal and tried to fit him into the rotation thatd be ok, but i just dont know. wolf’s ship has lone since sailed from CBP.
I like derek lowe, but hes going to get a monster contract too for someone his age. i think the yankees will land him and CC and a heavy cost.
the red sox will sign either kawakami or uehara because they scout japan better than a lot of teams. their set at the top anyway. I think that the Phillies should check in on ryan dempster. he could really be a strong number two starter behind cole hamels. itd be pretty expensive. i REALLY REALLY think they need to sign/trade for another solid starter because i do not believe that moyer – myers can have that kind of year again. i dont even think its a lock that moyer returns because he wants more than a one year deal. so id be having happ and carrasco battle it out for the 5th spot. and id just go ahead and sign or trade for a number 3 pitcher, or even a number 2 if you can get one. if moyer returns than you can have him battle happ and carrasco for the 5 spot. kendrick should be packages along with golson or donald and other prospects to get either a starting pitcher or a left fielder. you might even be able to add happ to a deal as well because he could get lost in the numbers. though i do think hed be a decent 5th starter, but you need to have a backup plan for him in case he doesnt settle into the rotation well for whatever reason.
Posted: 11:44 AM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Andrew R.
i think the phillies “pitching problems” are a good thing at this point. i am all for the brad penny deal. he’s definately a guy who will get nothing more than 1-year offers. i believe he is 30 or 31 so still in his prime. i would love to see us get him on the cheap for a year.
im not ready to give up on kendrick. a little bit of a sophomore slump hampered him this year but he still is only 23. he needs to improve his change up. right now, he’s had some success and failure as a 2-pitch pitcher, and both of his pitches range in the 89-92 mph zone. it takes a lot of guess work out as a hitter when you can sit one speed. brandon webb didnt really get his act together until he was 26. Kendrick has been given a wonderful opportunity to learn at the big-league level. i think he still has upside.
JA Happ seems to be another guy that would be mediocre on anybody’s staff, but is getting squeezed out by the numbers here. He did well in his 2 starts against the braves in september which led to big wins. he seems to be a #3 or #4 type guy.
Carrasco should start the season in triple-a with a chance to move up. Somebody is going to get injured at some point.
Screw Eaton. junk.
so our rotation should look like hamels, myers, blanton, moyer, penny/happ/kendrick/eaton/carrasco.
Having all those arms sure is a good thing. I could maybe part with Happ in a deal for a better arm/ corner OF. It’s no good to trade everybody away because in 2010, there may not be myers, or moyer. it could be hamels, carrasco, blanton, happ, kendrick???? who knows though.
Posted: 12:07 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
I’d feel much more confident if they would get another starter, they were extremely lucky last season with their starting rotation, no injuries, Myers came back from AAA pitching like a madman, uh, Jamie’s 46, and is Phat Joe really all that? Big questionmarks, and we don’t even know who will be #5, can Happ or Carrasco be successful up here? Too many unknowns, sign another starter, they can afford it. I just don’t know who????
Off topic, King Cole was chatting up VP-elect Biden at the Eagles game last night, they were both sitting in Lurie’s skybox. The Gov said on the postgame show that Biden thought he was getting booed by the fans when they showed he and Lurie on the jumbotron. They had to explain that they weren’t booing him, they were booing Lurie!
Posted: 12:12 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
i agree..theres no way the rotation holds up this way again…baseball simply does NOT work like that. their pitchign was good enough all year and all through the playoffs with no injuries at all. thats so rare. you HAVE to get another solid guy in there. even if you have to trade happ and kendrick and other prospects to get it. i will admit, the free agent prices for good starting pitchers are very steep. even dempster would probably take 4 years and 16-18mm per year. thats rough, even if it works out.
Posted: 12:26 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Booing Lurie, it’s not like the Eagles re being run badly… I heard a pundit last night say the different between NY and Philly fan is the NY fans’ll throw batteries in protest but the Philly fans will boo when the batteries miss.
At the end of the day you have to trust right now that things are being done right and Moyer and Blanton will be effective in the coming season, I question Myers who seems to regress during off-seasons but lets see what this teams going to do on the field. A lot of contendors crumble after WS appearances so lets give the new FO a chance to show the ship can be steady at the very least. I still think we leave Carassco down for as much of this year as helps his progress, we can’t expect a ROY contendor if we rush him up and he’s still a good year younger than when most recent impact pitching prospects have come up.
Sheets, Lowe, Penny… We’ve seen the payroll tied up before in desperation and we’re not in desperate times.
Posted: 12:28 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
NJ, Andy Reid’s a real “maverick” at the play-calling.
Posted: 12:38 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Geoff we don’t HAVE to get a solid guy, I can understand how some people are writing Myers, Blanton, Moyer off but we’re coming off a championship and thats rare. Are we going to do what the Dodgers did last year and stock up on every FA arm we can because we’re not sure our guys are going to be at least servicable?
It’s very true you can never have enough pitching but the Phils have 7 guys available to start before even looking into alternatives, payroll is incredibly important right now to keep the core pieces in place and unless your adding a Cy Young candidate then the cost outweighs the value. We have to look back at the teams that try and put together all-star rotations through trades and FA and accept that it doesn’t work.
Posted: 12:43 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Georgie- I cringe at our play calling which is too ‘explosive’ for our own good, we’re so built for a shoot-out we can’t handle moving the chains unless it’s in chunks but I’m a Reid fan just hoping his way’ll work before he rides of into the sunset.
Posted: 12:50 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Justin
Im all for signing Penny, if healthy he’s a clear 2nd to Hamels, would love to have him in the rotation, even if he starts out at Lehigh to get velocity back.
Posted: 12:51 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
Whoever said Myers isn’t a true #2, I second that. I would prefer to see the Phils go get a #1A or #2 starter. Assuming that won’t happen, I think we MUST have some reliable option if Moyer regresses (chances are good that he will get worse). Make Blanton the #3, and fill in behind him with Penny (sign with a low base + incentives), Odalis (not Oliver) Perez…who else? Schilling? After seeing Moyer against Milwaukee and LA, we have to have a backup plan. Happ and Kendrick can fight for the 5th spot, with Carrasco in the wings.
Posted: 02:06 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Sam
I kind of want to see a youth movement next season. Hopefully, Happ, Carrasco, Marson and Donald are all on the roster by the end of the season.
This is what championship teams do to stay fresh and hungry. Not to mention, they would all be legitimate upgrades.
Posted: 02:15 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Come on bash the guy all you want but you can’t say Myers isn’t a true two. He’s a guy who has a 90′s fastball with a vicous breaking ball who can dominate hitters, he certainly has struggled but just because he’s failing as a two doesn’t mean he gets bumped to being a 3. You want your 3 (and if your deep 4) guy to be a stabilizer who doesn’t need to have great stuff but it’s tough and will soak up innings whether he gets hit or not, when a 2 goes south he projects as your 5 man.
I’m worried Myers will struggle considering he seems to regress mentality in his ability to be a ‘pitcher’ in the off-seasons, but I give the FO the benefit of the doubt that their doing what’s best for the team and that’s not adding a ’2′ man each your untill you look like the Mets.
Posted: 02:45 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I wont even discuss the Eagles, theyre the most predictable sports team ive ever seen. If they decided to be a running team like the giants, they could get away with their personnel and be fine. but theyre backwards and the coach has to go….
now…dye would be a great pickup for two more years until michael taylor is ready to step in and be the man.
also…guys. in baseball, its rare to see a ptiching staff liek the phillies, albeit underrated at the start of the season, hold up like that all year with guys liek moyer and blantomn being the 3 and 4 guys. they can be the 4th and 5th guy. all im saying is you NEED to add depth there. they really do, trust me. theyre going to need it. they wont get any of the lowe sabathia types, but it couldnt hurt to call ryan dempster and kick the tires, call brad penny and see if he wants a one year deal with incentives and maybe a few options stuffed in there. call up teams looking to move a starter and ask them what itll take. rotation depth is key. this season , the planet were alligned for that rotation. kendrick, eaton, those guys cant hack it. happ, maybe he can maybe not. but you can afford to have EITHER happ or moyer as the 5TH starter. NOT both. for a WHOLE season. so either happ stays and moyer walks or moyer comes back ON A ONE YEAR DEAL and happ is packaged and moved.
Posted: 02:51 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I think that Myers is a Strong number 3 in an ideal rotation. hes in between a 2 and a 3 kind of. he was effective in the playoffs. hes jsut consistently dominant enough to be a traditional number two.
i really think teh phillies won because of the manager and the key veterans gillick plugged in to make the team complete. their rotation held up amazingly, but we all know that doesnt happen in baseball often, and it probably wont happen again in the same way. so just get another solid arm in tehre to deepen the rotation. thats all. if it costs a few good prospects or if it costs 3-4 years at 15mm a pop then so be it.
Posted: 02:56 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 christopher
i’d rather see carrasco, kendrick and happ battle it out for the 5th spot than bring in a low risk guy. although that all changes if for some reason they don’t re-sign moyer. but as of right now i say let the kids have at it.
Posted: 03:09 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Yep, agreed Geoff. This was a magical year, you could start to see things falling into place after Labor Day, I think. It happened back in ’80 too, hitters picking up the guys that were slumping, amazing fielding plays, remember Myers’ 3 for 3 game, Vic’s salami against CC? Stuff like that just snowballs, and turns into what we just witnessed, a team that was so driven by the WS that NOTHING was going to stop them.
That being said, I don’t see it happening again like that, I’m all for adding another arm to the rotation.
I MISS BASEBALL!!!
Posted: 03:14 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
It was definitely a matgic year, i guess thats how championships are…all things fall into place perfectly.
its the smart thing to do…add another arm of some quality for depth. would it be great if they signed ryan dempster or someome big? of course….but someome who can be solid is all they really need to alleviate some concern and add some depth.
Posted: 03:35 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
alo…THe A’s got Matt Holliday..interesting..
Posted: 03:36 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 cm
if only we could get rid of Adam Eaton…
Posted: 10:18 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 Emily
Haha ^^ nice, is there a section to follow the RSS feed
Posted: 03:30 PM on March 25, 2009