Phillies Nation

Say it isn’t so. Just the thought of Victorino or Werth leaving has crushed my good day so far.

My personal feelings aside for these two tremendous players – if this were to happen, I think it would be a joke. You trade two great outfielders who can hit for one outfielder who would give us one year? We can potentially keep Vic and Werth for a few years. Just one of them is worth more than Holliday. Look, if we lose Burrell, which is looking more and more likely, I’m all for building a team to help us win that trophy again. But I do NOT think, if we have basically the same core guys, we get there without Victorino and Werth because it would break up part of that core.

I am more than willing to give Amaro the benefit of the doubt, if this happens his relationship with the fans will be off to an awful start.

If they can get Holiday and keep the core players(Victorino, Werth, etc…). I would give them any prospects they want for him, he is a proven player! Unlike anybody in the farm system….

Yeah I completely agree – give up any prospects, except Marson I think, but don’t trade our core guys.

Although this could all be rumor it seems like were running towards another championship with the likehood of tripping over ourselves than taking one step at a time. The situation with Burrell needs to be addressed and if he leaves then we have to look to how to stablize the situation in left rather than reach and upset the chemistry of the team by adding a guy with attitude or an inability to man the position in most games.

Keeping a power bat in left isn’t going to win this team another championship, sustaining the level of pitching and getting more production from the core players will put this team in position to maybe add Holliday at the deadline or a suitable impact player but mortgaging our future for a guy who’s walking at the end of the year isn’t the answer. I’m all for giving up certain prospects for rentals and taking the draft compensation but Holliday is too expensive. Victorino, Carrasco and Marson have to be unavailable as their too important to the teams future, Werth is too important now and there’s no way the Rockies take a deal headlined by Happ and Donald and frankly we have a lot to loose right now.

The Phillies now have the ability to see October on a regular basis and we can’t drain the well to try and force another championship now. If this season has taught the Phillies anything it’s that wise decisions are what’s needed not knee-jerk reactions and the teams success will be predicated on strong starting pitching, production from the core players already on this roster and an efficient and healthy bullpen.

i honestly don think they will make this trade. i think its all BS. it doesnt make any sense. now that theyve won a WS they can settle down and hol,d onto their top young players. maybe move a few prospects for a LF thats NOT holliday whos cheaper and under control for two or so years and who can do a nice job oiut there.

im still more concerned with adding a late reliever and a starting pitcher.

There are so many examples of this in sports its ridiculous to even debate. Just like anything else, even in politics. Just refer to history instead of wasting your time arguing over whether or not its true or not.

IN any event, tehre are dozens of examples of people like Holliday, especially in Colorado, who get overhyped and leave to a bigger team, only to totally bust once they get that 100 mm contract. Is he really much different from Mike Hampton or Barry Zito, or someone like that?

Someomes going to give him an insane contract and theyre going to SORELY regret it.

Geoff- why would STL trade Ludwick? And what makes you think Baldelli is a good option? Ludwick is a great compliment to Puljos and Baldelli probably cannot play a full season in the show.

If Holliday is traded here, it gives him a wonderful opportunity to prove he isn’t just a “home field” guy. Plus, why wouldn’t his numbers at the Bank be similar if not better with a better offense around him? He is a tremendous upgrade over Burrell. I love Pat and always defended him but no team is going to pay him 14M to either DH or play 7 innings a game.

Prospects- we need to keep Vic and Werth and give them some prospects. They will want pitching plus one or two others. That leaves Carrasco, Happ, Kendrick as options. Throw in Donald and you got a deal.

Remember, our core is not as young as the Rays. The Phillies want to make another serious run next year and that will mean sacrificing part of the future. Hence the interest in Holliday.

The other option is exploring trading our core like Rollins, etc to see if they want to go younger first.

We are in a great position right now and we should go for it again next year. I am still in favor to see what CC wants though. He is a flyball pitcher which means he probably won’t consider us much like why Peavy hasn’t taken us off his no-trade list. But still kick the tires with his agent. It isn’t often we have come to the winter meetings as WS champions which means some prospects are probably overrated right now.

Matt K,

So basically what you’re saying is … you want to turn this team into the mets? by signing the biggest name overrated loosers? I mean why not though … we could sign peavy and cc and trade half of our mlb potential farm system for halliday. Im not trying to sound like a total jerk man … im just saying that gilick has proved that those moves that you’re talking about won’t win you a world championship and i would seriosuly eat ALL my phillies hats if halliday was anything other than a contingency plan if the phillies can’t resign burrell.

People need to learn how to spell players names. Holliday or Halladay. Which do you mean. I’m confused.

I’m saying it’s gonna be a three way deal with the Phils-Cards-Rockies with Ludwick coming to the Phillies somehow and all I see the Phillies giving up is like JA Happ and Kendrick idk some low risk type player or something like that (going to the Rockies) while the Cards send Ludwick to the Phils and like two young pitchers or position players to the rockies. This way the Rockies get a 4 for 1, the philsgive up very little for an everyday player and the cards get matt holliday (and they can have him).

And considering what the Rockies were looking for and how all those reports said they would consider taking less perhaps… this seems like the only likely scenario where (if I were the Rockies) I would take “less” for Matt Holliday if I was getting a rotation starter + 3 other players (considering at least 1 or 2 of them will probably be on the cusp of MLB.

haha sorry phil … HOLLIDAY … i misspell a lot when i get excited. and is anyone else listening to this? 25 mil a year not enough for manny according to scott boras. dont get me wrong … i dont care what happens to manny so long as he stays out of the NL east, but … thats just crazy … 25 mil a year “way off from our minimum.”

Prospects for Holliday would be perfect. In that case, if we can’t re-sign him then we get top draft picks. But I don’t like the idea of messing with this core of players.

Yeah, Geoff is on fire. Love it. But let’s step away from the ledge. We’re just talking trade. Even for the Holliday doubters, there has to be some offer you’d be happy with to have him for one (contract) year — because someone will likely get him for one year. (Cardinals are rumored to be offering Ludwick, so they may prefer Holliday too.) He’s better than Burrell, he’s better than any tandem currently on the roster, so he’d be an improvement in some way (could be minor, could be huge). No one is saying pay him $100M. I just like the fact that he hits for average and pop, and he can steal bases. I could argue that Vic and Werth (recently a part-timer), coming off career years, are replaceable and likely over-valued because we know them well and they were key parts of a championship team. But blind loyalty to average/above-average players can also be crippling. If we had any confidence that we’d lock up Holliday beyond one year, you’d have to prefer him over Vic or Werth, c’mon. But we have no confidence we can do that. So hopefully we offer something decent, not too much (not Vic, Werth, Carrasco), and we have a sick lineup next year. Colorado is in a really bad position, and smart teams take advantage of that. We have that chance, and we’re talking. I like it. Would you do it for Madson (likely gone after 2009) and Golson? Madson is awesome, but his value could not be higher right now.

For One year, yes, if you offer happ and like golson or donald and some filler. thats not bad if he stays healthy. to offer shane or werth is totally insane and counterproductive though. i cant believe some people are considering that idea at all. ok, if holliday stays healthy he can have a good year for us, just dont get carried away. jhes a more modern version of burrell. but hes no ryan howard and HE NEVER WILL BE.

Matt Holliday is a better player than Victorino, Werth or even Howard. The problem with trading for him is that you’re only getting one year of him. Boras is his agent and he’s not going to do a trade and sign (like Johan Santana last year) so you’re only getting 162 games of Holliday.

That being said, he’s a heck of a player. For those who think he’s only a slight upgrade of Burrell in the field or on the bases, Holliday stole 28 bases last year. That’s only 8 less than Victorino.

Griffin- I totally agree. People love Vic and Werth here, but Holliday is better. He’s just not worth the price for 1 yr. He’s better than anyone in our OF right now and I would say is even with Howard.

Just note that 1/3 of ALL Holliday’s SBs were off the Padres last yr. THey are horrible at keeping runners on. I think Young was 44/44 when base stealers attempted to steal off him.

Still he would give us at least 15 SBs just not a huge fan of the cost.

A deal like that does not make much sense to me. In essence you are losing Burrell and Victorino/Werth for Holliday. Not much of an upgrade in my book.

My hunch is that the Phillies getting so aggressive on getting Holliday is a negotiation strategy to get Burrell to sign with them now.

Rob-

I do believe you mentioned somewhere about a 3 team trade with the Rockies and Cards. That would be the best.

Cards get—–Holliday, Coste
Phills get——Ludwick, low prospect reliever type
Rockies get—Happ/Golson/ Herron/Chris Duncan

THoughts?????

Let’s not get crazy over Ludwick, he had a tremendous bust-out year, but he has a history of injuries, he’s 30, and he’s played a lot here in Memphis for the Redbirds. Great story, but Cards are looking to flip him at his utterly highest value, which is smart. Ludwick is arbitration-eligible and will likely get in the area of $5M, maybe more.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/B7C6D1B5032D47D4862574FA00184F9C?OpenDocument

I realize the Phils need to keep finding high-production, low-salary players, but at some point, that’s very hard to sustain. I would not trade any top prospects for Ludwick. The guy was a decent, over-the-hill prospect himself just 12 months ago.

As for Vic and Werth, the career year argument is just that the chances of Vic and Werth having better years than they had in 2008 is not high, based on their history. Not impossible, obviously (look at Ludwick). Would love to see them improve, but to count on it is risky. In Victorino’s case, where we have more history to go on, 2008 doesn’t look that much different than ’06 or ’07 but he had a lot more at-bats this year and we add on the playoff glory. For Werth, he could see better overall numbers with more at-bats, but that’s not a guarantee. But as we sit here today, they both had their best years in 2008, exceeding expectations. In both cases, their trade value has never been higher, just something to consider, not that we should trade them. There are many good arguments not to trade them, including their intangibles, versatility, and low cost. But we’re not talking about all-stars here. Very nice role players at the height of their historic value.

this is just getting stupid now.

You’re going to give away either Vic or Werth and probably 2 of our top prospects for a one year rental? Who doesn’t hit as well away from Coors field?

I would take Holliday ONLY if he gave proof he would sign after ’09
What’s the point of getting a one year rental…WE ARE CHAMPS
we don’t need a missing piece…
and this would only cause a short solution, we’d have to go get another left fielder in a year anyway…

this is stupid, so stupid.
we should be looking to lock up Cole, Ryan, Madson, Vic, Werth and anyone else we can….stock up the farm system..THEN GO OUTSIDE..

Come on Ruben….don’t be a dumb ass…..DON’T BE ED WADE

What a horrible year for FA outfielders…
Best FA OF’s / possibility of becoming a Phillie:
1. Manny / Forget about it.
2. Dunn / Heh, heh…can you imagine the strikeout records we could set?
3. Burrell / 50-50 chance he comes back. I personally feel he will want more years than the Phillies will be willing to commit. He *really* should be a DH. Wouldn’t it be ironic if he becomes a TB Ray?
4. Abreu / Ugh…LH hitter makes no sense.
5. Casey Blake / Would be a worthwhile one year stopgap…can play numerous positions.
6. Bradley / Can’t see the Phillies doing anything to mess with clubhouse ju-ju.
7. Baldelli / Can’t go more than one year, but I’d take a team option just in case he turns out to be healthy. Fits the MO of the OF…skilled players with a history of underwhelming their original teams.

That’s about all that’s worthwhile unless Amaro gets creative and can make a deal (no I’m not considering Holliday). Cleveland has some OF depth and can use some bullpen pieces…

But my arguement is buying low on Ludwick, let’s say he regresses a tad he’s still only being paid marginal as compared to Burrell/Holliday/Magglio AND it wouldn’t have cost us a top prospect.

Ludwick would also becomign to a smaller park here in CBP, and i think if coupled with a reliever or some type of pitching prospect would really not be a bad deal at all.

Ludwick may well indeed be a 1 yr wonder, but if he slips to a .270 hitter I expect him to still hit 37 HRs and he’s capable of slugging at the same rate.
So even a slip in production wouldn’t hurt us since we’d still get awesome power and would not have given up so much.

I think giving up too much for Holliday wpuld be the wrong choice.

Johnny Snowden,
No way I want to turn in a World Series Champions into the 2nd place always choking debacle in Queens. My main point is that we are finally in a place where players want to play for us (or the theory goes if you win a championship) so why not kick the tires on CC and Holliday?

Everyone here says Holliday is a one year rental- but why? What if he comes in here and has a spectacular year and decides he wants to stay? I think we should explore all options because now things are in our favor for once. And I believe in not giving up the farm but those none of those guys are guaranteed All-Stars either.

And CC- why the hell not kick the tires. I wouldn’t outbid anyone for him but we could offer him the Philly Max like we did with Brand. IE: A chance to play for a championship contender every year.