My Offseason Blueprint For The 2009 Phillies
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, November 11, 2008 12:00 PM | Comments: 63
Posts
Per reader request, here’s the payroll for the 2009 Phillies. I took liberties with some of these names, but overall, I feel this is accurate enough. I signed Cole Hamels to a deal that gives him $9M in the first year of the contract. I also gave raises to some players. Joe Blanton gets $5M, Jayson Werth earns $3M, Shane Victorino earns $1.5M. I’m also thinking about signing Victorino to a long-term deal midseason.
I gave Ryan Howard $14M to avoid arbitration. I figure his camp will seek something in the $14M-$15M range. Finally, I signed JA Happ to a near-league minimum deal, and handed raises to other players in pre-arbitration deals. Finally, Jim Thome is off the books, as the White Sox will pick up his option for 2009.
C – Carlos Ruiz – 0.6 ML
C – Chris Coste – 0.5 ML
IF – Ryan Howard – 14 ARB
IF – Chase Utley – 11.0
IF – Pedro Feliz – 5.0
IF – Jimmy Rollins – 7.5
IF – Eric Bruntlett – 0.8 ARB
IF – Greg Dobbs – 0.75 ARB
OF – Jayson Werth – 3.0 ARB
OF – Shane Victorino – 1.5 ARB
OF – Geoff Jenkins – 6.75
OF – Matt Stairs – 1.0
SP – Brett Myers – 12.0
SP – Adam Eaton – 8.5
SP – Joe Blanton – 5.0 ARB
SP – Cole Hamels – 9.0 CTS
SP – Kyle Kendrick – 0.5 ML
SP – JA Happ – 0.42 ML
RP – Brad Lidge – 11.5
RP – JC Romero – 4.0
RP – Ryan Madson – 2.5 ARB
RP – Chad Durbin – 1.4 ARB
RP – Clay Condrey – 0.5 ARB
ARB – Denotes a player either given a raise avoiding abritration, or a player’s award after arbitration. I took educated guesses with these numbers.
CTS – Denotes a player signed to a full contract.
ML – Denotes a player signed to a pre-arbitration deal.
ague-minimum deal.
Total salary for 2008: $104.72M
Most reports have the Phillies breaking the $130M barrier in 2009, so we’ll stand with that logic. The Phillies have $25.28 million to play with.
Move 1: Re-sign Jamie Moyer to two-year, $12M deal with performance bonuses.
Moyer made $7M in 2008 after hitting all his bonuses. For his work, raise the deal and add the bonuses again. For our purposes, let’s say he makes $7.5M in 2009.
Move 2: Re-sign Scott Eyre to one-year, $4M deal.
He wants a one-year deal, and should get a raise from his 2008 salary of $3.8M. Add a $1M bonus for pitching in 60 games, which I don’t expect him to hit. Note: He has signed a one-year $2M deal. Cheaper than I thought.
Move 3: Sign Odalis Perez to one-year, $1.2M deal.
What? Yes. Perez is a back-end starter who is very cheap. He notched a 4.34 ERA in 30 starts for the Nationals. I’d take a flier on him as a contingency plan.
Move 4: Sign Milton Bradley to three-year, $28M deal.
Seems steep, but the Phils can buy low pitching to get Bradley. I’d start with a simple $8M in year one, then $9.5 in year two, before hitching to $10.5M in 2011. Give him a fourth-year option for $12M. Look — he’s the perfect hitter for the offense, he’s good friends with Utley and he’ll play for Charlie Manuel. I can’t overlook this deal.
With those four deals, the Phils would have spent $20.7 million. With the extra $4.3 million:
Move 5: Sign Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Greg Golson, Jason Donald to league-minimum deals.
That should cost the Phils close to $2 million more, putting them at about $22.6 million, and a total payroll of $127.32 million. If necessary before the season, they have room to sign another player or two as pacifiers. In fact …
Move 6: Sign Pete Orr to one-year, $0.45M deal.
That puts the total salary at $123.05 million.
A few notes:
- The real deal that hampers the Phillies is Jamie Moyer. He deserves a raise and will negotiate a slew of bonus opportunities. As much as I love Moyer, I don’t know if the Phils really should sign him for two more years. Is that wrong to say?
- I’m very sold on Bradley, but if the Phils would rather spend more money on the mound, I suggest Brad Penny, while going after Rocco Baldelli for the outfield. That would cost about $11M total in 2009.
So, that all said, here’s Tim Malcolm’s 2009 Phillies roster:
C – Carlos Ruiz / Chris Coste
1B – Ryan Howard
2B – Chase Utley
3B – Pedro Feliz / Greg Dobbs
SS – Jimmy Rollins / Eric Bruntlett
LF – Jayson Werth / Matt Stairs
CF – Shane Victorino
RF – Milton Bradley / Geoff Jenkins
SP – Cole Hamels / Brett Myers / Jamie Moyer / Joe Blanton / JA Happ
RP – Brad Lidge / Ryan Madson / JC Romero / Chad Durbin / Scott Eyre / Odalis Perez / Clay Condrey
AAA – Lou Marson / Jason Donald / Pete Orr / Greg Golson / Carlos Carrasco / Kyle Kendrick / Adam Eaton
To recap, I love Milton Bradley as an outfield signing, and I love Brad Penny as a pitching signing. Considering the money the Phils will likely spend, I can’t see them both coming in.
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
As you can see, I have no trades.
The only trade I might squint for is Jermaine Dye for Jason Donald and … I don’t know …. Antonio Bastardo, with the Phils eating Dye’s salary. But that’s a lot of cash (potentially $23.5M for 2009 and 2010).
Teams want too much in trade, and I see Carrasco and Happ as major parts of the rotation in 2010, and Marson as catcher of the future. Of the four big prospects, Donald is my most available.
Posted: 02:41 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
I’m very in favor of getting Milton Bradley, I think he would be very very dangerous in this lineup. I’d also avoid Baldelli at all costs. Not healthy enough.
Posted: 04:12 PM on November 10, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
I don’t think a Dye trade would take Bastardo, the White Sox would love him off their books and with a prospect of the level of Donald in the deal it could likely be padded out with pitching prospects with lesser stuff. I really don’t like the idea of Milton Bradley and I think he’s going to hang around on the open market unles he re-signs with Texas, his questionable attitude and health are already having people laughing at his demands and he’s not going to get 3 years+ arond the $10m py mark with a contendor.
Perez is a very nice thought, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Amaro being a little more active than we expect.
Posted: 12:13 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Id be all about a DOnald plus mid-level pitching prospect for Dye type of a trade.
I fully agree about Moyer. If you can get him on one year deals then hes a good get. But why commit all those yeras to a 46 year-old man? just have a perennial option like wakefield does and I will be happy with that. He can come in and be the 5th starter every year until he retires if he can repeat his performance of this past season. However, I think they really REALLY need to start considering Moyer the 5th starter and actually go out and get a third or so type starter.
Jamie performed awesome in his effort to win 16 games last year, but you CANNOT rely on that again and again and again. Just be thorough, be safe about it. Make sure you have the pitching depth juuuuuuuuust in case.
Posted: 12:18 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I have no interest in Bradley either, it just seems like a BIG waste of money. at least Dye has an option for 2010..
Posted: 12:19 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Gotta show more love for Moyer, he may be 46 and sure he’s not likely to throw 16 wins this year but having him in the middle gives you the flexibility to try and groom someone in that 5 hole that could become so much more. We’ve made worse deals hedging our bets and the money these frontline FA’s are asking for would mean were heading our bets, I’d love to see Burnett but not as the top paid guy on the team.
Posted: 12:24 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 RichieAllen
Tim,very good informational artice ….Its taking me a while to digest all the stuff in it but its great fun.
I agree with a couple of people above..sign Dye not Bradley (if we cant have Burrell,that is ).Bradley could be pain in the a**.
And I agree that Moyer should be task #1,after all he won 16 games but he’s like a coach and father figure to a lot of our young pitchers.
Didnt we have Odalis Perez on our team before?
Posted: 12:38 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
No Odalis. We’ve had Tomas. Odalis has actually schooled the Phils in the past.
I don’t know why everyone’s against Bradley so much. Teams will shy away from him because of attitude, but in Philly I’d bet you he tempers. And he’s just perfect for the offense. A strong contact hitter with 30-HR pop in Citizens? Look what he did in Arlington. The guy was tailor-made for Philly.
Posted: 12:47 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Im all for keeping moyer around I just think you need to bring in another guy whos solid to add depth. maybe happ ends up as the odd man out, but still. kendricks already out, might as well try to package him for someone while were at it. I really think they should just suck it up and give hamels the money before arbitration. figure out what the arb range will be and start your contract negotiations based on that. Im pretty suire Cole will get his contract this winter. They basically have to do it.
Now that eyre is abck in the fold and it looks like burrell will go. Id give moyer a one year deal with a recurring wakefield option and if he doesnt liek that then he can leave too, despite all he means to the team and the city. after that theyll need to make hamels happy with a contract and then go out and get the rest of the pieces.
Posted: 12:47 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
theres always the outside chance that bradleys just one of those guys that comes here and gets to know charlie, respects him, and cleans his act up. i just dunno…i heard dye is a really nice person. someone i know ran into him with his kid at a restaurant at the all star game one year and he was really cool.
Posted: 12:50 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Justin
I may be one of those few people that desnt want to give up a talent like jason donald. He’s a stud at the plate and decent with the glove and if the phils are trying him at 3rd in the AFL doesnt it seem as if they’re grooming him to take over the position? Specially since we don’t have a 3rd base option anywhere close to being MLB ready.
Posted: 01:11 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I didn’t think that Bradley would come here (we haven’t exactly treated him nicely) but I did not know that he was friends with Utley. If he would, I’m not sold on the idea that he can last an entire season (the guy tried to attack/confront a big league commentator last year). The guy can rake but he is the biggest head case in all of baseball. Vic will cost more than $1.5 million… it has been reported that Nate McLouth will ask for better than $4 million and their numbers/accolades are very similar (Vic’s are actually better). Will Madson only cost us $2.5??? Dye would be nice but not at that price. If it comes down to Bradley or Dye, I guess that I would take Bradley. Odalis Perez??? Are we that desperate? We have some great prospects that could fetch great value on the market… can Donald play 3rd or LF? If we bring up Marson and he does what we think he can do, at that point, what do we do with Ruiz??
Posted: 01:16 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree in that I would prefer NOT to get into any trades. Carrasco and Happ seem like they could be integral parts of our rotation at some point next season.
Posted: 01:18 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 RichieAllen
Tim…who knows you might be right about Bradley…All I know is that he was a problem to some other teams(although I dont know what the problems were).
We had such a good mix of guys this year,hate the possibilty of someone screwing that chemistry up ..thats all.
Posted: 01:19 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
i like how you put adam eaton last in the AAA depth chart. haha
Posted: 01:25 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 RichieAllen
I like Geoff’s idea of signing a solid pitcher in addition to Moyer…But I wonder if that would cancel the Dye/Bradley/Burrell money?
Otherwise were just getting a midlle of the road guy who you hope overacheives.
I guess every team is looking for that 4-5 mil player who pitches like a 10 mil guy.
Posted: 01:27 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Robbi P
I agree Tim with everything except Odalis. 1. Nobody really knows his exact age and I would rather as I stated earlier in a previous post, try to sign Mark Prior, one of my favorite pitchers from the past but I’ve received probably just criticism for that. I think as long as we sign a pitcher that has experience, we should be set in case one of the Phillies pitchers goes down by injury, age or inexperience.
I feel we should look at some pitchers coming off of injuries as a low risk/high reward guys. Josh Fogg and Mark Mulder are two former top of the rotation men who could be had cheap for minor league deals with incentives. I feel that any of these three guys will be great contingency plans.
Odalis Perez, I think that just because he killed the Phillies doesn’t constitute him as are number 5, I could and hopefully will be proven wrong if that occurs. I wonder if Amaro is looking at these blogs but common sense says no haha.
Posted: 01:30 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Lewisauce
I’m more worried about the outfield than the pitching. Pitching, you’ve got three guys set for 09, you’ve got Moyer as a fairly cheap option in the four- or five-slot (“cheap,” that is, compared to the big free agent market, ala Dempster, Lowe, etc.), and that leaves one slot for Happ/Carrasco/Kendrick (I still haven’t given up on Kendrick). That still leaves two possible arms out of those bottom three if someone gets hurt. Not to mention, douche-bag (Eaton) will be in AAA and available if you need to spot-start someone because a real pitcher is on the 15-day DL. (Of course, this all depends on Moyer.)
I think, if I’m Amarro, I take a shot at a pitcher (I like the Odalis idea!) who is mid-rotation and fairly cheap, so you’ve got depth, and then you concentrate on the outfield, specifically a high-contact righty of some sort.
I like Milton Bradley. If anybody can handle him, it’s Charlie. I like Dye as well, and I’d be happy with either.
Posted: 01:30 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Ben
I know we are not looking to sure up the back end of our pen anymore, but I just saw that hoffman is now available.
If we picked up Hoffman for the 8th as a set up man that would give us huge firepower in the back end of our pen, and would block the mets from getting him.
I don’t even know if Hoffman would go for the set up role, but at this stage of his career he might. Again, not saying that there is even a chance of this happening, but that would be a sick ‘pen.
Posted: 01:52 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
Not to beat a dead horse, but we should all read Gammons’ take on the Holliday trade, a basic steal for a centerpiece player.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3695225&name=gammons_peter
As for Dye, we don’t even know how available he is. It’s not like we’ve heard that the ChiSox are shopping him like Colorado shopped Holliday, though they do apparently have 4 startable outfielders, so it seems likely he can be had (SI’s John Heyman says Chicago has “listened to offers”). Still, I would consider him a longshot and perhaps not that big of an upgrade over Burrell (for a similar price), if at all. Dye’s average fluctuates, and he’ll be what, 35?
Bradley’s an interesting option — anyone know about his defense? He played only 20 games in the outfield last year. Just curious. I think he may be the best option out there; downside is that he might be nuts, his defense may be a question, and he bats left. Friends with Utley, you say? Didn’t see that one coming.
Posted: 01:53 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski
Bradley is too injured and a major head case. All of us Eagles fans thought the same about TO but look how that turned out. I mean this guy did go after an announcer. Are you kidding me? Our chemistry doesn’t need him in there. If we don’t sign Burrell, we need to trade for Dye. Dye is older but can still produce and would bring another respectable voice to the clubhouse.
We are not in the position anymore to take a “flier” on an oft-injured pitcher and committ millions to them. That eliminates Prior, Mulder, Penny, etc. Odalis would be a solid four or five man in this rotation. But I am all for giving Happ or Carrasco a shot just to see if they can pitch in the show. At this point in time there is absolutely NO pressure on those two for performing like All-stars.
Posted: 01:54 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
I think Donald for Dye straight up is the deal, maybe a LOW pitching prospect. It is really just a salary dump on their half
Posted: 01:54 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Craig
Is informational a word?
Posted: 01:59 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Tim I believe that Jenkins is 8 million this year. Don’t think phillies will pay Hamels 8 million more like 5 also 8 million for moyer for one year okay a little high but no more than one year guaranteed. vic about 2.5 werth tops 3 million all the rest very close. I hope we are right I think it was me who first mention bradley to you, hope he comes here on two year deal with buyout for third year and charlie can control him. the thing about the phillies is. if and its a big if Carrasco and Happ are ready, next year Myers and his 12 million and Eaton Moyer jenkins and felix off books give this team a lot of flexible. that is something like 41 million with those two young pitchers at minimun we could sign Hamels long term and get big time pitcher to be second starter and take pressure off the kids. or big time third baseman if donald fails.
Posted: 02:13 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Craig tried to find out. but can’t spell dictonary to find out sorry
Posted: 02:14 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 RichieAllen
Craig..I made the word up to see if anyone would notice…good job.
Posted: 02:24 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
I think Peter Gammons is nuts. Oakland getting Holiday for rental and expect to make up 25 game difference. He talks about young pitchers can you expect to have Cahill and anderson ready for next year, and furcal is to me going down as a player. that trade makes sense if he takes two picks that pan out better than he gave up. or he hold a team up in midseason for a big package to a team going for a pennant.
Posted: 02:36 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
What about Juan Rivera as that non-expensive righty-bat platoon with Jenkins or Dobbs? Seems fairly similar to Baldelli without the debilitating condition (which apparently he can control better nowadays with meds, diet, and rest).
How do we rank the so-far mentioned options….. Burrell; Dye; Bradley; Rivera/Dobbs/Jenkins; Baldelli/Dobbs/Jenkins; Dobbs/Jenkins/Stairs; or screw LF, spend on another starter?
Posted: 02:37 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Craig
Richie – my bad informational is indeed an adjective of information.
You really do learn something new every day.
Posted: 02:48 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 From Section 113
First thing first, Great job on this site. I do have a few things to say on your ideas. Odalis Perez?!?!?!?! What the hell is that about? He had a good season last yr? No I am sorry but he’s not an answer, not even “on the flier”.
Second, $9 Million to Cole Hamels?!?!?!?! Why on God’s green Earth would we EVER do that. He’ll get half that, maybe slightly more, in arbitration. He won’t be anymore willing to sign/not sign a contract if we waste $9 million for his 1st yr of a new contract. That would be a huge waste of money. Give him $5-$6 tops in ’09. Give him 6-7 years for $90-$110. If not we still have him for 3 more years after ’09.
Third, I think you are right on about Moyer. That would work. It might take 2 option yrs that have to be picked up at the same time but I cab definately see him signning for that.
Fourth, Eb said “I think Donald for Dye straight up is the deal, maybe a LOW pitching prospect. It is really just a salary dump on their half”….Um No.
They don’t have to trade Dye. He’s still a top run producer and can play RF. It would take much more than that to net Dye. Please stop making our prospects HOFs before they play in the majors. Bastardo isn’t that great either. He was so erratic in AA I wanted to kill someone. Constantly losing control. He’d strikeout 2 guys then walk 2 batters. Very frustrating. And has no big time heat. Him and Donald aren’t netting Dye.
Fifth, I think you are low balling some of the arbitration guys. Werth was a full time player last year for the most part and should expect a larger than usual raise. Vic is comparable to a Coco Crisp, who netter just under $3 Million his first arb yr. Madson should double his money. With his agent, he’ll see to it too.
Posted: 02:53 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
If we don’t sign a really good pitcher, and ONE of our rotation guys gets injured, we are SCREWED.
Posted: 02:56 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I looked at arbitrations by looking at histories. Maybe Vic and Werth are a little low-balled, so consider those conservative. Even if they’re given more considerable raises, it’s probably a million more each. I’m also looking at it from the Phils POV — Werth and Vic have both been injured a good lot in their short careers, and both haven’t exactly proven themselves as long-term commitments yet.
Prior is an interesting name to throw out there. Hoffman? Only if the price comes down. He’d be the nice “experienced late-innings guy” I’ve been pining for ever since Gordon deteriorated. And I’m sure Cole would love playing alongside his idol.
Posted: 03:05 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Tim, if I remember correctly, you wrote a while back, before the playoffs, that this was a team with character and class, guys like Pat, Jamie, nice guys (who didn’t finish last). Now you want to bring in the likes of Milton Bradley? I learned quickly that you shouldn’t say things on here without backing them up, so I looked up Mr. Bradley.
First off, since may ’02, he’s been put on the 15day DL 9 times, been sent to the minors for rehab 6 times, been suspended by the league 2 times. His batting #’s in “08 were great, but inflated compared to the previous years.
Now let’s talk about his “personality issues”. I went to youtube and searched milton bradley fights, and there you can see for yourself his fight with the umpire and subsequent injury, he’s one of those guys that loses it fast and cannot get control of himself when it happens. I put alot of the blame on the umpire there, but you can’t lose control like that. Our team is not made up of people like that, they’re pretty laid back, and someone with that temperment can be intimidating. Unless Bradley has done a complete 180, I don’t want him anywhere near this team.
Posted: 03:18 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Oh I know about Bradley’s issues. He’s one of the worst out there.
My opinion is one that very few will share, but I do feel he’d man up in Philly. I’ll outline my reasons again:
- Chase Utley. They played together in high school and remain good friends. Utley is leader of the team; Bradley would know his place.
- Charlie Manuel. He managed Milton when he came to Cleveland as a 23-year-old. Manuel went off on him once for lack of professionalism. He can handle him.
- In a 2003 article, Bradley was lauded by teammate Ellis Burks: “All you’d hear was this negative stuff about how this kid is tough to manage, he’s got a short temper, the umpires, but all I saw was a young kid with tremendous ability. I didn’t see the troubled person that everyone’s talking about. I just saw someone who needed people to be a little more positive.” Burks and Matt Lawton helped Bradley calm himself in Cleveland. I’d bet the Frontrunner Bros. could do the same here.
- A ring. Bradley would be coming in knowing he’s the last piece in a puzzle for a team that’s looking for a second-straight ring. He’d play to that role.
Yes, it’s a hell of a risk to bring in someone that volatile. But the character of this team could ultimately be what helps Bradley become a true star.
Posted: 03:35 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
Agreed. Keeping Burrell is clearly the safe move to make, and might be what is best for this team. But, Milton Bradley has the ability to be a very very dangerous player in the middle of the lineup. I also believe that his “issues” would not be an issue in our clubhouse. We have different leaders for different issues (e.g. Utley leads by example, Rollins leads by making everyone relaxed and comfortable) and I think with personal relationships with Utley and Manual already in place, it would not be a problem at all.
Posted: 03:44 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Sorry, I just won’t drink the MB KoolAid, I’ve heard that song before. He’s been with, what, 6 teams in 8 years? So far, it doesn’t sound like anyone’s been able to control him, I don’y buy that all of a sudden, just because he knows someone or is friends with Chase, that he’ll “not be a problem at all”.
Posted: 04:00 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 j cole
I didn’t read all the replies, but I don’t care too much for Coste. I know he won the fans over last year as the 33 y.o. rookie, but he has hit his sophmore slump and I do not think he is coming out. I would love to see him get out of it, because it is a good story, but he has his WS ring, now move him back to AAA and lets pull Marson up to work with Ruiz.
I don’t have any good options for left field, I think Bradley may fit, but like everyone has been preaching, he is definitely a wild card.
Moyer for two years sounds a bit much. I think he is a great person to have, but to be able to rely on for two more years may be asking a bit.
Posted: 04:11 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Chuck P
The more I think about it (if he really played ball with Utley in HS and played under Manuel), I’m becoming somewhat convinced that we should take a chance on Bradley… especially if it comes down to Bradley or a platoon. Keep him on a short leash and build a contract with incentives for him to stay healthy and out of trouble. He’s a tremendous hitter and he could teach our players a lot (he has a great approach at the plate). Let him know that the expectation is for him to be a teacher as well as a player. If you set the bar high enough and give him a positive role, I think that he could make it. The guy needs affirmation… that’s obvious. He needs to be coddled and insulated; keep him out of the lineup in situations that might be problematic (on the road in certain cities where he has a bad history). I think that we’re better off with Bradley 75% of the time than we are with a platoon.
Posted: 04:18 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NEPA
If the question is Bradley or Burrell, I’m somewhat split. We know what were getting with Burrell, which is a good and bad thing – but it’s the safe choice, which may be the wiser decision for a team defending a WS. But Bradley could be the key to stopping this team from going into one or two month slumps because he can hit for power and average, neither of which Burrell and Howard can do.
If Burrell doesn’t come back and the question is Bradley or platoon, then the answer is no question Bradley. I mean come on, this guy was one of the best batters in the AL last year. That’d be a no brainer. All of the other LF options are passes for me except for Dye.
Posted: 04:23 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
Warming to the Bradley idea, risks included, as long as he isn’t a cluster in the field. I still think we’d need to add a righty bat, at least to come off the bench. The lineup would be lefty dominated.
The rotation… I like the Odalis idea, though I’d take a shot at Sheets or Penny before I settle for Odalis’ still, he may be a better option than Happ or Kendrick. If Moyer goes south, we may be looking at Happ AND Kendrick in the rotation without another innings eater to put in there (obviously not Eaton). I’m not sure how much tolerance we have for the injury rebounds, like Penny, Mulder, Prior (I think Sheets will still get some $$, so not including him as a realisitc potential target). If we sign Moyer and we have Happ penciled in at #5, where would be put a new SP? To me, signing any SP would mean no Moyer or a decision to start both Happ & Kendrick in AAA.
Posted: 04:24 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Durbinator
Forget Odalis Perez and Pete Orr. I would rather let guys like Happ, Carrasco, Kendrick, Carpenter take Perez’s starts and Donald/Marson/Golson take Orr’s at bats and field time. Orr can play at AAA on a minor league deal but I have no idea why anybody would want him in the majors.
I would be ok with Milton Bradley but would much rather have the Phils simply re-sign Pat the Bat. Bradley did great last year but had a lot of health issues and was a frequent DH.
I would sign another RH bullpen piece to replace Seanez and incase Durbin reverts. I wouldn’t mind getting a set-up man now to replace Madson since I am sure he will be gone after the ’09 season with Boras as his agent.
Posted: 05:14 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Chuck P
There have been whispers that the Cards might be interested in trading Ludwick for a middle infielder or two (specifically linked to Kelly Johnson and Yuniel Escobar of the Braves)… do you think that they might be willing to think about Ludwick for Jason Donald?
Posted: 05:25 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
The answer at pitcher is DERRICK LOWE. How can anyone not see that? A sinkerball pitcher in CB park looking for a three year deal? Come on. Odalis Perez sucks and he would give us three lefties, assuming we keep Moyer or Happ, in the rotation. I don’t like that. There are still a lot of right handed hitters in the league in case you haven’t noticed. Moyer is a year to year from here on out. Burrell cannot be here next year. Well, I’d give him 6 mill I guess. We have to cut down on the strikeouts in the lineup. He’s also a gimp. Milton Bradley? Why? The money needs to be spent on pitching. Put Jason Donald out there if you want…whatever. It takes 5 minutes to learn to play LF. Dobbs is gonna play most of the time anyway.
Posted: 07:10 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
I’m with The Dipsy. Pitching needs to be our top priority. Get Lowe for 3 years and pay him whatever he’s worth. I would believe most pitchers would like to come and play for the World Champions.
Lets all look again at the > analysis. Our starting pitching was below league-average. Everything else was great. We were extremely lucky that not one of our pitchers got injured and they ALL came up BIG in the playoffs. We simply can’t keep relying on our pitchers on ALWAYS playing at the top of their range. This year it worked for us. Next year, who knows… What do we need to do? Bring a guy like Lowe and dramatically strengthen our rotation.
Posted: 08:11 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Dipsy- Do you realise the financial commitment the Phils would have to make to sign Derek Lowe? Either the Mets or Yankees are going to give an insane amount of money for him baring in mind he’s a Boras client. The FO has stated pitching is their priority in the market but they can’t be expected to handcuf themselves to at least 3 years for a non-Cy Young calibre pitcher who’d be earning more than anyone else on the team when there are very promising prospects in the system.
Secondly 5 minutes to play LF…? Seriously? Dobbs will barely see any time in left as if he’s in the field it’s probably at third with Jenkins and or Stairs in the outfield.
BTW Tim’s suggested Perez as a possible swingman and the cost would be low for big upside.
Posted: 08:14 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
In my previous post, beginning of 2nd paragraph: instead of “>” it should be “Beyond the Box Score” … I was referring to the analysis here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/3/652052/2008-team-reviews-philadel#comments
Posted: 08:14 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Manny- What evidence do you have to say the pitching was below average past the names on the back of the jerseys and the stigma that goes with them? You say everything else was great but if it wasn’t the offense that struggled for most of the year those starters would have netted several more wins.
And pay whatever Lowe’s worth… No-one’s going to be paying either Lowe, Burnett, Dempster or Sheets anywhere near the ballpark their ‘worth’, Lowe will land a contract somewhere in the region of the $50m range for what could be as little as a 3 year deal, he’d be the highest paid guy on the Phillies if it happened.
I agree the rotation can be strengthened but can we please stop knocking the guys on the roster and calling the FO cheap for not going and making stupid deals to appease the fans. Did you know Jason Marquis is scheduled to make just a shade under $10m this year, don’t forget Eaton is making over $8m and ok those 2 aren’t a shade on Lowe but do you really want to see us looking like the Mets?
Posted: 08:23 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
I was ASSUMING Lowe would take around 42m over 3 years from us. If he wants to go for 45m with a donkey team then god bless him. We’re the World Series champs. We get a discount. And remember, he’s not option #1 for the Mets, Yanks, Sox etc. They want to sign other guys. By the way, Stairs can’t play the field anymore so he’ll be part of no platoon. You wanna start Dobbs at third and bring in Feliz against LHs and late in games like this year…fine. I just don’t think Jenkins can hit anymore…period. And he’s more strikeouts. I think your 3B should be a good fielder and Feliz is that. Dobbs/RH of the .285/10/50/10 ilk platooning in LF is the vote hear. There are guys like that around. Aren’t there?
Posted: 08:43 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 mikemike
Manny the phillies are not big aggressive spenders. It worked once in 28 years. Right now they should lock up hamels and go after lowe, remember next year a lot of salary goes away. they made a bundle they can try to repeat. or do you rather they win once every 28 yr. now is the time to get aggressive they have the neculus and need a little more . To me it comes down to moyer or lowe who would you rather have. would it have been stupid to get harden, CC ? blanton won but he didn’t set the world on fire. If the team was more aggressive in the draft and international market they could have better prospect to deal. This year when you hear a pitcher in the draft named Gibson he would have been a philly but they low ball him, same with saunders with the angels, workman another stud prospect. the older guys on this site know what the ownership has done, we are just very leary of this group and there lack of trying to go all out to win.
Posted: 08:50 PM on November 11, 2008
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
MikeMike is right. Ownership has alawys built this team to bring a “reasonable return on investment”, not to “win”. Winning this year was great and I say even the sun shines on a dogs ass sometimes. My 1984 Phillies lineup scribbled on a piece of paper when I was in college:
OF Jeff Stone
2B Juan Samuel
OF Von Hayes
(Oh the speed so far)
1B Mike (I’m a third baseman) Schmidt
C Lance Parrish
OF Glenn Wilson
1B Rick Schu (did I just type that?)
SS Steve Jeltz
I thought we were gonna get 150 steals out of those top 3 guys.
Posted: 09:13 PM on November 11, 2008