Comments on: Source: Kendrick On Short Leash In 2009

By: Don M

Don M — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 17:06:12 +0000

Is there a rule that they would have to offer him a certain dollar figure in arbitration since he’s already been a Free Agent before or something?

My understanding on arbitration was the the team offers $1, the player wants $3, so they can possibly settle at $2, or they go through the process of arbitration, where both parties present their case before a panel.. and the player either “wins” $3, or “losses” and gets only the $1.

I think that one year of Burrell at $14 would be alright, it buys you that much more time waiting to see if your young outfielders, Brown, etc.. are legit prospects

By: mike

mike — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 16:42:58 +0000

I just read todd Z column he suggests that burrell won’t be offered arbritation. If that means we don’t get a first and second round choice for him. Then that is a disgrace. They are afraid he will accept and they would have to pay him 14 million for one year. big deal they can afford it plus we can’t let the first player in the draft go and get nothing. If this happens then they are the cheap bas## owners I have always said they are ,you can’t defend that stupid move.

By: Phillies Phan SC

Phillies Phan SC — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 06:06:55 +0000

Mike,

Even better for us. K-Rod is good, but he can be beaten.

By: CXL72

CXL72 — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 18:49:42 +0000

KK has been an important member of this team since he came up and I wouldn’t rush to trade him. He was huge in 2007 when he picked up the slack and helped stabalize the pitching staff.

KK/Happ/Carrasco would be the #5. The SP will be stronger if they can resign Moyer to a 1 year deal or add a replacement.

Random stats:
- The Phils gave Eaton and KK a combined 49 starts in 2008 before pulling the plug AND still won 92 games with these 2 killing the bullpen.

- Lefthanded hitters hit .321 and .334 against KK the last 2 years and he needs to find a way to get them out.

By: mike

mike — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 16:51:24 +0000

If the met sign k rod they will be spending most of there budject.

By: Phillies Phan SC

Phillies Phan SC — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 12:38:07 +0000

Mike,

Jamie Moyer won more games than anyone else on the Phillies. Granted he is older, but Jamie has shown no signs of age fatigue. Myers went 7-2 after he worked out his problems early in the season. Hamels is solid. You are right on Blanton, he did not have many decisions, but he always kept the Phillies in the game. #5 starter can compete. I will give Eaton a chance even though I am vocal about trading him…

Don M,

One thing you forgot about the Mets – they are looing at K-Rod, who probably will break down in a year or two. let them waste money on him and I think we could sign a big name. You are right, they will do whatever they can to outbid us.

By: Geoff

Geoff — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 02:48:21 +0000

I concur on many fronts. This 14mm freed up by Burrell is basically all gone after arb raises to hamels werth victorino howard blanton madson etc. it would be REALLY nice if they could even free up 2 or 3 mm od eatons contract by eating most of his last year this year and moving him to a cheapskate desperate team. It appears as thogh they are willing to bump up their payroll by 10-20 million. that basically means either resigning jamie moyer and getting a decent LF through FA or trade or signing derek lowe and getting a cheap LF off the bargain bin.

i would tend to err on the side of spending more money on pitching. if you can get derek lowe for 4/60-65 id kind of go for that because of his stability and consistency. theres a lot of garbage pitching out there to bring in to compete for the 5th spot with internal options if you get lowe. there are some decent bullpen options, even failed starters off the scrap heap sometimes work out well in the pen (chad durbin). koplove is just a body to throw in the mix and hope he makes the team.

derek lowe would really stabilize the rotation. and if you cant get him, id rather trade for a 3rd type starter. with the emergence of hamels im looking for solid, stable pitching out of the rotation. one stable guy would help a heck of a lot. if you want to resign moyer and go for offense with a better LF, then ok..but i think thats risky to give him 2+ years.

it all really depends on how much they want to boost their payroll. because their payroll is going up no matter what. its just do they want to it be 120 or do they want to balloon it up to 140?

whatever they do, PLEASE stay away from aj burnett. that guy is going to be a bad contract for someones payroll for 4 or even 5 years to come.

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:43:27 +0000

Its the same so far.. we bought a house in March so we’ve been living in sin for a few months.. I just wear jewelry on my finger now, and she has some more bling on hers

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:42:08 +0000

Next year we lose a lot of contract money, but we also will be adding a lot because Hamels, Victorino, and Jayson Werth won’t be playing for a combined total of $2.6 Million..

Its not just that we’re losing money on Burrell, and possibly Myers, or whoever, you need to retain the players that you have, and the thing with Lowe is that he would be GREAT at even as much as $15 Million for the next two years… but its going to take at least a 4 year deal to get him, and possibly more than $15 M per.. So outbidding other teams and having them force you to sign a player to a longer contract (which cannot be terminated like the NFL), that isn’t a good move.

If we’re smart, we’ll keep driving the bidding up, and that way if the Mets do get him, they’ll be paying a lot more than they want to for him, same way they’ll do it to us

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:37:14 +0000

Don M by the way how is married life? Is it what you thought it would be?

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:18:10 +0000

Sorry hit wrong button. I Just don’t feel comfortable with myers as a two and moyer at his age to continue, we would only have one year of payroll with too much in the pitchers. next year we lose a lot of contract money . I keep harping on it because we only have a couple more years until we let howard walk and maybe Hamel leaves too. so strike now and make the starting pitchers our strong point.

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 21:13:11 +0000

Don M the reason the yankees have been handcuff isn’t money but bad decisions. the mets the same. that’s why I keep saying how could they keep that G.M. he signed old over the hill hurt players to big deals.The biggest fear that I have is people thinking oh we don’t need lowe go get a guy like kendrick he can do it or put jenkins and a low ball option in left and we will win we did it last year. you need talent. Just because once in 28 years it work doesn’t mean we can just throw anyone into the mix and win. D

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:40:23 +0000

My point is that there will be a handful of pitchers worth looking into, and guys that you would want on your team EVERY year in Free Agency… let the Mets and the Yankees take Santana and Sabathia, pay them $25 M over 6 years… let them do it.. that doesn’t work because it handcuffs your ability to move them, or to add other pieces around them.

About the “rankings” …. i didn’t say that having a stong farm system doesn’t matter, but I am saying that whoever is ranking them, doesn’t matter… We were “ranked” probably 4th, 5th, 6th or so out of the 8 teams that made it into the playoffs this past season.. that was by the “experts”.. those same experts that knew the Angels would beat the Cubs in the World Series last year (when the playoffs started).. are the same kinda guys that tell you how good such and such prospect will be. Wasn’t Lasting Milledge supposed to be good, Delmon Young, Homer Bailey, etc..

All those guys make teams have higher “ranks” for their Farm Systems… and it doesn’t mean sh!t until they play on the field.. and Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, etc.. may not project to have great years or do great things.. but they’ve been better then most, so i still want them on my team

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:33:20 +0000

Don M so what if out system ranks bad. well if they invested the money we wouldn’t need a number two. We would have had joe Saunders and gibson a top prospect, if you are going to come on here and say it doesn’t matter, that makes no sense. A strong farm and right now we might have players ready to step in to play in place of burrell and moyer.You post possible free agent pitchers after this year, mayber 5 are worth looking at , Webb, who will not go on the market,forget lee not happening, beckett forget him so who is left meyers padilla not much.

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:16:06 +0000

Potential Free Agent Pitchers after 2009:

Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Miguel Batista SEA
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA
Chris Capuano MIL
Jose Contreras CWS
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton * PHI
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Rich Harden CHC
Tim Hudson * ATL
John Lackey LAA
Cliff Lee * CLE
Jason Marquis CHC
Mark Mulder STL
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * TEX
Brad Penny LAD
Joel Pineiro STL
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz ATL
Claudio Vargas NYM
Jarrod Washburn SEA
Brandon Webb * ARZ
Todd Wellemeyer STL

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 19:14:42 +0000

The past 3 seasons, Burnett has had ERAs of 3.98 (2006), 3.75 (2007), and 4.07 (2008)… and the past two years he got paid $13 Million..

So no, I don’t think he’s worth that, and you probably couldn’t even get him for that price becuase other teams that are more desperate, and who have both higher payrolls, and higher revenue stresm will out-bid you anyway..

Where did our Major League team rank, cause I doubt is was #1, but that is where we finished… you say that the minor league system is ranked #28.. so what..

Mike, what is “a number three type” … Nobody is saying that Blanton is going to win the Cy Young, but you need to realize that Burnett and Lowe aren’t going to be on the Phillies, and that bashing Blanton again (as everyone did until after his 1st postseason start) isn’t going to make anything different..

Blanton is decent, Myers has shown flashes of ACE, and flashes of A-ball….. Hamels and Moyer are consistent, and the #5 spot come down to Happ, Carrasco, Kendrick, wild-card…

It doesn’t make a ton of sense to overpay and lock-in D.Lowe because in 2 years it might be a terrbile deal

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 18:45:54 +0000

First thing you can’t come on here and say we have talent in the minors. the system is ranked 28 in baseball. Blanton 6 of 16 quality starts isn’t a number three type numbers. At triple a all they had was happ a projected 4-5 starter until carrasco arrived. second burnett had 21 of 33 quality starts, lowe had 21 of 34. myers 15 of 30, blanton6 of 16. but that means nothing. Aj burnett is better 2 than we have and so is lowe .We have a small margin of error in money. Why ?Because of ownership. not because of the market. I know we can’t compete with boston or new york or chicago but Bill Giles and Dave Montgomery. Finally if you are taking about the soxs they put stock in the minors. We don’t Savery is proof of that and not signing saunders, gibson, workman all top amatuer ,who in some cases were fifty thousand dollars difference, not to mention others. And before you mention the current core its eleven years of drafting most are number one or two high picks in lean years, howard was a fifth,

By: NJ

NJ — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 18:00:34 +0000

I’m not saying Burnett or Lowe aren’t very good players but their not going to be Phillies and if it does happen it will be at the cost of other areas of the roster because there’s no way if the Yanks don’t land CC they don’t get Burnett and if he slips past the Yankees and the Orioles or Red Sox don’t give him his money then the Blue Jays will give more years than teams like us or the Braves will be willing (and should be willing) to go to. As for Lowe he’s a fit for several teams who can barely fill a 5 man rotation like the Mets and will be willing to overpay massively for him. I’d like Sheets because he has the talent and his asking price has dropped into the 2nd tier but he’s health is a risk but no more than Burnett who can fan guys but his ERA will be high and I believe he’s seen the DL 10 times in 10 years.

As for Blanton no-ones said he’s a top of the rotation guy, he’s one of the best middle guys who works fast and can eat innings. Conventially you hope you have a stopper calibre guy in the front of the rotation (Hamels), a number 2 who’s usually a strikeout guy who hasn’t excelled fronting a rotation (Myers) but has the stuff or a power 3 like Hudson or Lowe. You want your 3 to be a guy who’s just tough to hit against who’s going to guarantee you 6/7+ innings each time out without getting shelled (Blanton) and then you hope your number 4 can be solid veteran who’s going to make his starts and keep you in the game so you don’t have to burn too much middle relief (Moyer). the 5 on most teams is a failed guy who’s never managed to put it together and keep his control or slot in another control guy you hope can emulate the guy in front of him.

The Phils have a small margin of error compared to the payroll on other teams and we have talent in the system to not want to block them with long-term deals for FA’s. Not all teams can and should try to put a rotation together like the Cubs and if you look at the Sox, that’s a lot of homegrown talent there.

By: Don M

Don M — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:41:18 +0000

I think Burnett sucks.. and I’ve been saying that for a while. I also like Lowe A LOT.. but the Mets WILL NOT LET THE PHILLIES GET HIM. If the Yankees don’t get Sabathia, they’ll outbid the Mets, who will definitely out-bid the Phillies, etc.. There is no chance of Lowe coming here, it sucks, I know.. but it’s not happening, and I realize that already, so that I won’t be pissed when he signs elsewhere.

Total Number of pitchers in the NL (16 teams) with ERA’s under 3.00 = 4
with ERA’s under 3.50 = 11
with ERA’s under 4.00 = 26

only 26 Starting Pitchers with ERA under 4.00..so yea most #4 or #5 starters aren’t expected to go out and throw “Quality Starts” on a regular basis.. when they do, you usually win those games, but sometimes you don’t …which is How Hamels didn’t win 20 games last year.

Blanton had a 4.20 with the Phillies.. not great by any means, but solid for your #4 starter.. if he’s the #3 next year, we would obviously need him to be under 4.00 …. but anything under a 4.50 for any starter is “good”.. although a staff full of those guys isn’t going to win many playoff games or anything

By: mike

mike — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 17:32:21 +0000

Don M only time will tell but fact remains. Blanton still had only 6 of 16 quality starts. and his numbers with oakland hits per innings was not good. Maybe he was hurt but I still don’t see him as a top of the rotation guy or a solid 3,after this season we will know. but I still would like to put a solid 2 in that rotation and lowe and burnett are two who fit the bill. I can’t trust myers as a 2. we have seen him pitch poor and good too inconsistant for a top of the rotation guy. so what I am saying is would you trade myers for either burnett or lowe cause that what we would be doing. plus giving Carrasco more time to develop and hopefully drabek will be closer to the big leagues.