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Starters Gave Phils Chances To Win In September

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, November 14, 2008 01:44 PM | Comments: 42
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When the Phillies were hitting their stride in late 2008, they were receiving pretty hefty outings from their starting pitchers.

JA Happ
Sept. 17 – 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Sept. 22 – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K

Joe Blanton
Sept. 8 – 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Sept. 14 – 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K
Sept. 20 – 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K
Sept. 26 – 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K

Jamie Moyer
Sept. 7 – 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K
Sept. 11 – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K
Sept. 16 – 5.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 6 K
Sept. 21 – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Sept. 27 – 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Brett Myers
Sept. 5 – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K
Sept. 10 – 7.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 9 K
Sept. 14 – 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Cole Hamels
Sept. 2 – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K
Sept. 7 – 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 6 K
Sept. 13 – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K
Sept. 18 – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K
Sept. 23 – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 7 K

That’s 19 starts of five innings or more in September (25 games total), for a record of 16-3. In September games where the Phils didn’t get five innings from a starter, they went 1-5.

Look at the consistency of these guys, especially Moyer, who strung together four very strong starts with just one clunker. Blanton improved with each start. And Hamels, while not dominant in September, managed get wins in three of his starts.

Next season the Phils will go in knowing Hamels, Myers and Blanton are back. You know — for the most part — what you’ll get with each. Expect an ERA at 3.00 for Cole, an ERA at 4.00 for Myers and an ERA at 4.50 for Blanton. You need something in between Hamels and Myers — at least one guy. Moyer, to me, might be that guy, or he might be the guy who had an ERA over 5.00 in 2007.

I do feel comfortable in the staff’s ability to win in September, as they’ve shown it twice now. But getting there, they may need another piece or two. The current staff of five-to-nine guys is probably good for getting the team 85 wins, but they need that extra push. Who’s the push?

 
 
  • Posts: 0 TheDipsy

    Oh, so you think you’ll get a 4.00 out of Myers eh? What makes you say that? Myers does not pitch well enough for long enough to be a number two. And we all know that when he loses his mechanics he implodes, giving the team no chance to win. Personally, I trade him. Preferably for a guy that will give me innings and a 4.00 ERA :)

     
  • Posts: 0 Durbinator

    I still don’t think we need to sign another starter, besides Moyer. I have no problem with Hamels/Myers/Moyer/Blanton as the top 4 with Happ, Carrasco, and Kendrick battling it out for the 5th starter spot.
    Oh, and cut Adam Eaton.

     
  • Posts: 0 John Fire

    Hey – so free agency started today at 12:01 a.m., right? So we should be expecting some deals today, correct? I just want to make sure I have the timing right and it isn’t tomorrow.

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    The mets are after CC and fuentes. If they land CC and a decent reliever they will be tough.

     
  • Posts: 0 Gavin

    The Mets have 25 -30 million to spend. I dont expect them to go after CC. Lowe and Fuentes will be their major signings is my guess.

    I like our rotation with Happ and Carrasco competing for the 5th spot. I’m not normally optimistic, but I feel like those guys can do it, plus it would give management a chance to sign Hamels and/or Howard to a long term deal.

     
  • Posts: 0 Georgie

    mikemike, I’m beginning to wonder if there’s any amount of money the Mets can throw around that will make them a championship team. We saw who was in the WS, two teams with low payrolls compared to Mets, Yanks, they just keep buying big names and it hasn’t gotten them very far lately. I think when you put a team together like that, the players truly feel like a commodity, no loyalty from either side, and it doesn’t give the players time to bond as a real team.

    I would like to see the Phillies get another starter though, there’s just to many uncertainties with the rotation as it is. I’m going to have to see a good solid season from Myers before I crown him #2, I feel pretty good about Moyer for at least another year, and Blanton, same as with Myers.

     
  • Posts: 0 Craig

    Mike – The Mets have too many holes to tie up $25m in CC

     
  • Posts: 0 Sam

    Happ or Carrasco. Both look promising at this point, and I see no reason to sign a “proven” pitcher just to say we signed a “proven” pitcher. Didn’t most of our rotation prove itself last year anyway?

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    I’m with Georgie… We have a unique team chemistry that no money can buy. But when it comes to our rotation, there are too many question marks (Myers, Moyer, Blanton, 5th starter) –they could all be great, but they could all suck. We can’t seriously expect Blanton, Moyer, Myers, Carrasco/Happ to ALL have a good season. Chances are that at least 1 of them will underperform. This is where a strong [FA] pitcher should come in –someone who comes in between Hamels and Myers as Tim says. That man should be *hopefully* Derek Lowe. I’m crossing my fingers.

     
  • Posts: 0 RichieAllen

    One thing to think about ..I think last year was the first year in recent memory where nobody (in the rotation)got hurt in september .We pretty much had all our starters available.(and come to think about it we also had a lot of our bullpen healthy).
    When was the last time that happened?
    My point is it depends on who goes down and when.
    Last year we did ok by getting Blanton when we needed a replacemnt for Eaton’s spot.
    Its always ok to sign a #1 or #2 starter,you can always use them.But were not going to sign one of those so….
    maybe its better to wait till the season goes on before you get somebody.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    And I’m crossing my fingers Jeff Francour to fill the outfield void but we both know neither’s going to happen, the Yankees are already reported to have put together an offer for Lowe.

    I think we’re deceiving ourselves if we think our chemistry is unique, the advantage we have over most recent winners is our core is intact without glarring holes. We have to hope we can do what this team has been doing for the last couple of years and hold the staff and offense together enough to get up to the deadline without having too many guys having barely shown up and patch it together from there, health is the issue more than anything.

    I really agree with Sam’s attitude, I hope Happ can hold down a spot and I’m salavating over Carrasco. The reason his projected role is so erratic is because he’s so young and he’s still just a kid with Beckett-like stuff we’re hoping can master his tools, if he can then there’s your frontline pitcher.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Craig- I don’t trust the Mets and their newfound increased arrogance, the only thing stopping them from seriously bidding on CC is the fact the one team they can’t go toe-to-toe with is the Yankees. The way they operate now they’ll spend what they like on who they like and neglect any area they can find a potential scapegoat for.

     
  • Posts: 0 christopher

    if we’re going to talk moyer’s 2007 don’t forget his 14 wins, which would have had him tied for first in the team with hamels in 2008.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chutley

    Yanks sent CC a contract today

     
  • Posts: 551 Brian Michael

    yea, an over $140 million one.

    Looks at Myers’ starts, he was a workhorse in that small sample…further confirming the fact that he is a total headcase. Let’s hope the right Myers shows up in 2009.

     
  • Posts: 0 Derek

    Here’s an interesting article on Umpbump.com….they offer their take on what the Phillies should do this offseason….kinda radical, but kinda interesting….check it out…

    http://umpbump.com/press/2008/11/10/what-they-need-philadelphia-phillies-%E2%80%94-to-trade-ryan-howard/

     
  • Posts: 0 Dennis

    Derek, I read that and thought it was horrible!

     
  • Posts: 0 Derek

    it’s just interesting what they had to say
    I thought it makes us much worse as a team and I don’t want to do it at all…but it was an interesting read

     
  • Posts: 0 RichieAllen

    Boy they sure dumped on Ryan Howard in that UMPBUMP article…I dont agree with it AT ALL.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    Matt Cain would look nice in red pinstripes if the Giants are dumb enough to trade him to us…

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    You would trade ryan Howard for Matt Cain even up. Howards number warrant more than Cain or Linecum a every day home run hitter with league leading rbi. for a pitcher ,that is totally insane.

     
  • Posts: 0 Derek

    We would need more than matt cain for ryan howard…..that trade is ludicrous…we’d need some prospects or an everyday player that is major league ready….

     
  • Posts: 0 Georgie

    Whoa, Nellie, that lineup does not impress me, and why do the Phillies need to keep their payroll at 103M(umpbump article)? Although I have to admit, and I feel somewhat guilty saying this, I am torn about Howard. I go back and forth all the time with him, love to see a better defensive 1st baseman, but can he improve his defense? Hate the K’s but when he gets in his groove and starts nailing them out of the park, there’s nothing more exciting.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Howard will be traded. Probably after next year. He’s gonna want A-ROD money and he’ll get it. But not from the Phillies. How valuable is a man who drives in 150 runs a year, strikes out 175 times a year, and lets in 75-100 runs with his horrendous play at first base? The man just drops routine throws that are right in his eyes for no reason. How do you value this type of player. If you could do a +/- for Howard, I think that his number would be surprisingly low.

     
  • Posts: 0 Georgie

    Dipsy, are you a Teletubby fan?

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    When evaluating a trade, you must consider salary. Ryan Howard making the league minimum two years was worth a ton in a trade, Ryan Howard making 12 million and two years away from free agency isn’t worth as much.

    He’s a great power hitter, but no GM would take him over Tim Lincecum (and his salary) given that Lincecum is years away from free agency.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Why do you ask Georgie? Do you like them, too? And griffin, if Howard makes a $15 this year I think he’s still worth a ton in a trade.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    At $15 million, he’s no longer worth ‘a ton’. If you wanted to spend 20-24 million, you could get Teixeira without giving up anything.
    I’m not trying to say that Howard doesn’t have any value, he just doesn’t have as much value as a star player making less than a million dollars, like Lincecum.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    I agree. I guess it all comes down to how you define “a ton”. Would you rather have Texiera at $20m over 5 years or Howard at an average of about the same over the next 5 years (2 years arb + 3 years of front end of long term deal? I’ll take Tex.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    Me too, Tex is a beast.

    Howard wants A-Rod type money and after Tex gets a huge contract this offseason, Howard will want more. So I don’t see the Phils signing him longterm. But the Phillies will go to arbitration with him and Howard will be a Phillie for at least the next two years.

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    I have never heard crazy talk like this Ryan Howard making 12 million or 15 is worth a lot .the mvp homerun champ two of three years. rbi leader. world series winner, mvp. and we should trade him for lincecum because he has two years on his contract. that is just silly. What you fail to realize is teams would sign him. not all teams are bottom line, like our smallminded owners, Cubs, Yankees Red Sox ,Rangers, dodgers,Houston, Angels, Detroit would pay him.

     
  • Posts: 0 Georgie

    Dipsy, yeah, the Teletubbies crack me up, and Dipsy is my favorite. One of my cats actually started watching them, so I started too.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    mikemike, I don’t think you realize just how good Tim Lincecum is. No one is saying Howard stinks, but if you offered Howard for Lincecum, they would hang up the phone on you.

    In the article written, the author acknowledged that the Giants wouldn’t even trade Cain for Howard, let alone Lincecum.

    I know you love Howard because he plays for your favorite team and he hits home runs, but he’s more valuable to you then he is to other team’s GMs.

    Don’t worry, the Phils won’t trade him, they’ll just let him walk when he’s a free agent.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Of course they would pay him. Buy how much would they GIVE us in a trade knowing that WE won’t pay him? Not to worry, the Yanks and Sox would get in a bidding war. Who is this guy Tim that runs this site anyway? He needs a better set to work from.

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    Griffith. Linecum had 33 starts and 26 were quality I Know how good he is .but he is a pitcher who plays ever 5 th day. Pitcher get hurt easily 4 days a week that pitcher can’t help you. but the remark that Cain wouldn’t bring you Howar is stupid .Howard right now is on a pace to be a hof hitter. how many people can do what he has done in a short time. Numbers that others only dream of 45 hr. and 150 rbi with a bad start. No I think you don’t realize how good this guy is. If he had come up with the teams I mention earlier he would have already been signed.

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    Griffin I Responed to your remarks without finish the article. Other G.M. will line up to sign him.you must be kidding to think a team with the money to sign him won’t go out and try. put a manny behind him and you will set offense records.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    mikemike, I’m not saying that Howard won’t get a huge contract-of course he will.

    I also never said that I’d trade Howard straight up for Cain (I’d have to think about it and who the Phillies would get to play 1B), I just mentioned that many sources have said that the Giants wouldn’t do that trade.

    In an ideal world, the Phillies would trade Howard for Cain and then go out and sign Texeira, but that’s just not going to happen.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    Also, if you’re trading for Howard right now, you’re only getting Howard for two years. So you wouldn’t trade two years of Howard for five years of Lincecum?

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    why do you want to trade the MVP? so you can NOT make the playoffs?

    that makes no sense. let it go man. theyre not going to trade him anytime soon its not even worth wasting thoughts on it. it really is better to go year to year with him anyway.

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    Geoff, I’ve missed you buddy!

     
  • Posts: 0 griffin

    and yes, I agree with going year to year with Howard.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck P

    The only thing that article intends to do is raise eyebrows. Besides that, it doesn’t make much sense. Howard might be streaky and he’ll ask for a huge pay raise but the kid is money. He’s a marketing dream and you can’t argue with the numbers… we would all love to see him on base more and strike out less but he is what he is. He’s a homerun hitter and homerun hitters strike out a lot. As good as Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are, you would expect the Giants to be better, huh? But they’re not… I like Lincecum and Cain but we have proven winners, folks. At 3B, Feliz is undervalued… why trade him? When he went down with an injury, this team struggled and there’s a reason for that. He calms these guys down, he’s dependable and he does come up with his fair share of clutch hits. Dobbs everyday would be a recipe for disaster. Juan Rivera is not our answer in left field ESPECIALLY without Howard.

    >>

    Like everyone else, I’m guilty of one major violation of the unwritten rules of “fanhood.” Time and time again, I cross the line of fanhood, into the world of business. It’s in my nature (I’m an investment advisor by trade)… I feel like I need to help allocate the owners’ monies wisely but the reality is I’m just a fan and those owners are doing just fine. So rather than plea for the players that would help my team win a championship, I settle for scenarios that make good business sense. Let me tell you this, I want Ryan Howard on my team no matter what it costs. Yes, it might eat into David Montgomery’s bottom line but why should that matter to me? He might even lose money one year… isn’t that how business works? To say that he’s going to make Yankee-money is a slap in the face to our fan base. Haven’t we earned the right to know that our organiztion is dedicated to winning championships? Ryan Howard’s contract is about this team letting us know that they’re going to do whatever it takes to get us there again and again and again. Sign the kid… and sign Magglio, too while they’re at it! LET’S GO PHILLIES!!

     
 
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