I absolutely agree with the assessment that Ryan Howard is number 2 on the list. With Burrell most likely gone and Utley facing a down year due to the fact that the hip surgery will throw off his off-season training program, Howard will absolutely be they key for how the offense fares as long as Utley isn’t himself – and that might be all season if the hip is either still bothering him or if it affects his training regimen that profoundly. If we’re without Utley for Opening Day, then right now our lineup is:

1) SS: Rollins
2) CF: Victorino
3) 1B: Howard
4) RF: Werth
5) LF: Jenkins/Stairs/Dobbs
6) 3B: Feliz
7) C: Ruiz/Coste
8) 2B: Jason Donald
9) Pitcher’s spot

Given the Howard has absolutely no proven protection (it’s too soon to say about Werth), pitchers are going to give him absolutely nothing to hit. It will be critical for him to stay focused and to not put pressure on himself and accept that a walk isn’t such a bad thing. If he can do that, Werth will get a good number of RBI opportunities. But if Ryan isn’t patient, we’re in a lot of trouble, especially without Chase or Pat to pick us up when he struggles like they did last season. We really need the 2006 Ryan Howard to show up, not the 2008 Ryan Howard. Because if THAT Ryan Howard shows up, who’s going to pick us up? Werth? He may, but if he gets good enough, they’ll just give him nothing. Then what – Jenkins? Stairs?

And Jason Donald playing second base for us? NJ, I hope you’re right about the Mark Loretta rumor because I’m not sure if Donald can field. He hasn’t had a fielding percentage higher than .968, and that was only through half a season in Clearwater where he committed 10 errors in 83 games. This season his fielding percentage dropped to .949 when he made 18 errors in games – that’s basically one error for every one game in the 8 extra games he played in Lakewood (91) as opposed to the 83 he played in Clearwater.

I’m not giving up on Donald, though. The good news: Utley actually made 28 errors when playing AAA ball in 2002 (this was when they were still making him play third – it could be a matter of finding him a good position) and his fielding percentage was .918. Both have comparable OPS statistics and stolen base percentages. I like his hitting a lot. But I see his defense. Even the comparisons aren’t accurate because Utley went from low-A in 2000 to AAA in 2002, whereas Donald went from low-A in 2006 to AA this year. Maybe he’s the next Chase Utley stats-wise (no one can replace his heart), or maybe he’s the next Todd Walker (terrible-fielding second baseman with Boston and Chicago once).

If anyone’s seen him play and knows that he’s much better than these numbers suggest, please let me know because I’ve never seen him play. But I don’t like that he’s only in AA and I don’t like that his fielding are low. I just can’t see him filling in decently for Chase – although that might be because we’re so spoiled by Chase that no one can seem good enough.

Also, since we’re on this list, put Happ on that list – since our offense may struggle, pitching will be critical. Burrell and Utley were hot enough that we could actually get by with Adam Eaton last season pre-All Star Break, but we can’t afford a single weak link this year since Utley might not return to form until after the All-Star Break.

Have to say LaMar and Noworyta are incredibly important, we need to get the next wave of Phillies coming through the system and get at least a couple of drafts like the Sox, Brewers and Cubs have had to give the flexibility to not put a clock on the window of opportunity to win. If the smart moneys on throwing it all into the ring while Ryan Howards not smelling free agency then thats not smart money at all, nows time to get smarter and dictate our future by focusing on getting young, talented, cheap and controlable guys groomed to support the Hamels, Utley core for the next 10 years.

Harden: Great, but no stamina and always gets hurt. Rarely goes more than 6 innings without tweaking something. Zambrano: great, but gets wacky sometimes, hasnt yet lived up to his potential in the clutch like cole hamels finally did this past season.

they have some hitters i like but they missed, badly, on fukudome and i think they might be stuck with that contract…they have some nice bullpen pieces in marmol and samardzjia, but kevin gregg is far from a lockdown setup man.

the cubs are good enough to be in the mix in their bad, overrated division like they were last year.

the phillies are still in the drivers seat. cole hamels has emerged as the games top clutch starting pitcher. a bunch of guys in the rotation pirtched out of their minds in the playoffs (moyer, blanton) so id liek to bolster the depth of the rotation and add some insurance there even if moyer resigns. still, there may be some bargains floating around out there to play corner outfield once people go and spend too much money on adam dunn and pat burrell and manny and such. id concentrate on spending most of the money on pitching and contract extensions for key players. which is exactly what i believe amaro is going to do….

They haven’t won anything of any importance in a long time, they overspend for just about everything the acquire, and they are going to sold soon..

I wouldn’t mind seeing them win a Championship, and I would definitely rather the Cubs then the Sox, Yanks, Mets, etc.. But I don’t think the Cubs have done anything other than overpay for “names” lately.. Soriano is alright, but not worth the contract they gave him.. Lou Pinella won manager of the year for guiding that team to the playoffs, and then nothing else

1) Ownership Group – While we enjoyed an amazing 2008, lets remember that this group has been responsible for everything since 1980, including the unbearable periods of the 80s and 90s. Major financial decisions still need their blessing.

Only kidding ,but the true value of Utley will be felt when he is absent in the early part of 2009.There isnt anybody who can “Be Chase”offensively and on defence…..If you know what I mean.