Phillies Nation

Howard and Hamels are the only two with irreplaceable skills and the only two worth committing to long term. Still, I think we are a year away from movement on this front. In the end, the Phils aren’t likely to keep them both and possibly neither. I look for Howard to be dealt at some point and Hamels to be offered a Brink’s truck full of it.

Vic would be nice, but I wouldn’t look for a long term deal there. Maybe 3 years max.

I said before that buying out Hamels for the remainder of his arbitration years, and the first two years of his Free Agent period would be a good way to go.. I think that would be a 5 year contract from this point, making him 29 at the end of this deal, but giving the Phillies leverage to extend that contract whenever they wanted, if they wanted. No need to do anything crazy like 8-10 years… 7 years for a pitcher is a long, long time

Howard should not be offered a long-term deal unless he’s backed off his demands for A-Rod type money.. no player is worth $20 M a year, especially not one that sets records for K’s, and hits .250 only after mashing in September.

The offense turned it on in the postseason thanks not to HRs but from consistent, timely hitting… from guys like Werth, Feliz, Ruiz… Howard is a great talent, but there is no need to pay him extra money right now.

I think Werth and Victorino also need to be locked up because they are all-around players that can play any OF spot, hit anywhere in the lineup, steal bags, throw out runners.. all the little things that can turn a game around.

Since we didn’t get any “expensive” players like Lowe to improve our team, I’m expecting the FO to give long-term deals to at least two of the players I mentioned above.

Locking up Hamels, Vic and Madson, or at least the first two is really the only way I would be ok with the money not being spent in the Free Agent Market.

I presume that Carrasco will replace Myers in the rotation, and someone else will be ready in time to replace moyer. but im not sure about how many other guys they can bring up within 2-3 years for the rotation. maybe one or two. so signing blanton ffor 3 years might buy some time for the younger guys in teh system to be ready. other than carrasco, assuming happ is the 5 already, who really has a shot? savery projects as a setup man or late reliever not really a starter. bastardo? eh, lets see if he has a good year again…michaeul stutes could be ready in 3 years with consistent performance. kyle drabek would be ready to replace moyer if he stays healthy and returns to form….

so out of all those guys (including carrasco) you figure two fo them will make it to join happ in the rotation. so youll have hamels – 2 – happ – carrasco – drabek/savery/bastardo/stutes. if its not apparent that two of those last 4 will be bonafide rotation pieces, then it makes sense to sign blanton for 3 years, giving ample time to get them and others ready to replace him.

Re: Hamels… buying out arbitration is a good idea if he’s willing to be bought. There have been no indications that he wants to do anything. Do we have to sign Hamels “long-term” right now? No. He’s not eligible to become a free-agent until 2013… that’s three years (an eternity for pitchers). If he wants to have reasonable discussion about a 5-6 year deal, great but I dont think he will.

Howard… we missed the boat. Last year’s arbitration debacle screwed everything up. We could have probably offered him a 3 or 4 year deal for what he wanted last year and he might have accepted (buying out arbitration) but we low-balled, he won and now he’s looking at $15 million of arbitration money. A contract would probably mean $19 million per… we’re not gonna do it. We can offer him a reasonable deal but he’s not gonna take it.

Werth… FA after this season. I’m probably willing to let him test the market.

Vic… FA 2012. Lock him up 5-6… we don’t have a CF close to being ML ready on the farm. When we traded Golson, it told me that we were ready to make Vic our CF of the Phuture.

Durbin… FA 2011. Year by year. He’s a setup man for us so let’s not go crazy.

Blanton… FA 2011. Lock him up 4-5. His value is still low and his potential is high. The guy began to turn it around at the end of ’08. I think he’s going to be a pleasant surprise.

extending hamels, victorino, and werth mean that madson and myers are basically automatically gone. myers is way gone after this year, thats why id explore the market for him now and try to land a rotation ready starter in return if someone will go for it..blantons debateable but id do it for security if he gives you a good price.

Geoff, why would anyone give us a “rotation ready starter” for Myers if we’re getting rid of him because he’s due to become a Free Agent..

They’d either give us prospects, but none that were too close to Major League ready.. or pitchers in the same situation as Myers where they would lose them to FA soon anyway.

MAYBE trade Myers at the deadline if either he or the team isn’t performing as it should.. but that would mean HIS value is low, or that the team is badly underperforming.. Perfect scenario would be our minor league pitchers tearing it up so bad that we just need to bring them up, and Myers would be having a season good enough that his trade value is high at the deadline..

Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin

Hamels would get 5 years, 90 mil, with a 6th year option at 18mil.

Victorino would get 4 years, 30 mil.

Werth would get 3 years, 24 mil.

Blanton would get 3 years 21 mil.

Dobbs would get 3 years 9 mil.

As far as Madson and Durbin go, I would just take them year to year because you never know when relief pitchers are going to fizzle out. If I had to give them any contract I would not exceed 2 years.

In the case of Howard, I would just to continue to let him go year to year as well until the number gets too high. We all know the Phillies organization will not pony up the 120 mil over 5 years to keep him here, so we might as well let him go year to year and trade him when his number is too high.

Im not saying its likely..there are only a few teams with “too much” pitching. the red sox come to mind, and they still are trying to sign derek lowe. i agree..id rather our prospects tear it up and they can just call up carrasco and trade myers for prospects.

because the really obvious thing here is that brett myers is gone. theres no money for him after all these other extensions so youll either risk him not being a type A by letting him walk or you trade him before the deadline.

I wonder how much Myers and Madson would be willing to leave on the table to stay in Philadelphia.. Burrell said he wanted to stay here.. I’ve heard Myers say that multiple times in interviews. Its a shame Myers can never put together a full season

I also think that now that he KNOWS that Hamels is the ace will do him good…. Myers ended up getting the Opening Day job, and he’d try to prove everyone that HE was the ace, trying to strike everybody out, being impatient, etc…

re: Myers, I agree. The Phillies should be looking to acquire good starting pitching, not trade it away.

Sabathia said he defnitely wants to play.. Scott Kazmir says he wants to see the USA do better this time.. Carl Crawford, and Even Longoria both said they would play.

And I heard Brian McCann would backup Mauer for the catcher spots. Much improved from Varitek and Schneider

USA needs to be athletic like Cuba, DR, Japan… not just big power hitters, cause that doesn’t work..

I’d like to see an OF of Ryan Braun, Grady Sizemore, and Curtis Granderson more than BJ Upton

Don M says~ “Its a shame Myers can never put together a full season.”

Huh? Do you mean living up to expectations as the “ace”? If you look at Myers as a no 2 or 3 starter, then I think most clubs including the Phillies would be satisfied with the past accomplishments of Myers’ career when you consider that in….
Yr 2003: 32 starts, 193 inns., 14-9 W/L, 4.43 ERA
2004: 31 starts, 176 inns., 11-11 W/L, 5.52 ERA
2005: 34 starts, 215 inns., 13-8 W/L, 3.72 ERA
2006: 31 starts, 198 inns., 12-7 W/L, 3.91 ERA

I didn’t realize his 2005 and 2006 numbers were that good… but I guess thats why we’ve all waited for him to excel and have one real breakout season

i think hamels and victorino are the clear choices for long term deals…where howard and durbin clearly are not…take what u can get from the big guy while he is arbitration eligible then trade him at the last minute for some arms…in 2 years at 31 yeaqrs old he will still be a huge star and probably an american league teams biggest priority

Dominican will be stacked… Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto have said that they will pitch for the Dominican team (in addition to Griffin’s names, Aramis Ramirez and Alphonso Soriano might also be on that team. Vlad is out…).

I understand that Chan Ho Park will not play… he was injured playing in the WBC in 2006.

This is incredible reading material. A few questions to ponder folks:
1) Where would we be in all this without our big man?
2) Who could replace his value in the middle of the lineup?

Answers –
1) Not with our memory of 2008 as WS champions
2) Not many with people could fit there that would not require mega millions – Name the best – what are they commanding? Does Ryan seem like the type that would go from team to team for a $ more to you all?

Howard needs to be signed for at least 6 years, but after he starts soaring again. This year was not a pretty one for the Howitzer for him or us who agonized over and over again at his whiffs. After this year, if he comes close to the 06 numbers, give him a home on the mainline. His kids a college education at one of our top schools – I’m serious folks. We will not be able to replace this once in a decade type player.

Hamels, sign him for 6 or 7 years, just do it! People, the best is yet to come..
Victorino, 6 years! His attitude, his playing ability are second to none. He is a team player.
Werth, big time, he needs our confidence and he certainly earned it! At least 4 years.
Blanton, this guy has proved himself. Not a #1, maybe he might become a #2, time will tell. But tie “Just Joe” down for 4 years.
Dobbsy I would figure 2 years – he has shown to be valuable and well worth decent money wherever needed.
Madson, if he will listen go for 4, 3 would be nice too. He is still young enough that after 4 (if he stays healthy and continues to improve) he can shoot for the stratosphere (and probably get it, right Carlos Silva? or maybe a better analogy would be our own A Eaton…)
As for Chad Durbin, I believe that his career needs to be thankful to a manager like Chahlie. If we can, perhaps a soft 2 year deal would be OK.

I’m saying this now, I gurantee that Chase Utley will be a GO for opening day. The man came back early from his broken hand and he can do it again.

May not see him much at spring training as far as participating full on but, I bet he’ll be a go for opening day.

Lock Up Victorino so i can get a jersey i can wear for a few years, (See Thome, Jim)

actually, looking at werths 08 salary, he may even take 4/20ish (he only made 1.7)