A Heavy Look At Arbitration-Eligible Players
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, December 03, 2008 12:14 PM | Comments: 91
Posts
The Phillies are facing true arbitration situations with 10 players. And since so many of them are looking for suitable raises, this issue is obviously a large concern. In fact, it likely contributed to the denial of arbitration offers to Jamie Moyer and Pat Burrell.
Of the 10 players, there are a few candidates for long-term deals:
Ryan Howard
Why: You’re not getting another potential 50-home run threat anytime soon. He’s instant offense, instant franchise and instant contention. Plus, he deserves the deal. And, instead of avoiding having to pay $15M over one season, and $18 over another, why not agree on a deal that works for both parties?
Why not: Age, size, history. Howard is closing in fast on 30, and trends for meaty power hitters say 30 is the start of the end. Moreover, Howard would command a multi-year deal worth over $100 million. Do you want to commit that much on one bat?
Cole Hamels
Why: Pat Gillick said last season that Hamels needed to prove he could last a full season without injury before any talk of security arose. Hamels did that in 2008, adding with a healthy season a postseason that rivals very few in the annals of baseball history. Moreover, it’s better to lock him up now before the value of an ace pitcher skyrockets even higher.
Why not: Hamels could have shoulder problems in 2009 or beyond, and with his already rough history, why take the gamble? Plus, Hamels endured a heavy workload in 2008. There’s no guarantee the Phils have a completely durable arm.
Shane Victorino
Why: By locking up Victorino, you lock up an important part of your team. Vic has become a leader since coming aboard, and as the everyday centerfielder, represents the main line of defense in the field. Signing him now to a three- or four-year deal means likely keeping him through his prime.
Why not: At age 28, Vic is close to his highest value. With his low salary, he’s an attractive trading chip. Also, Vic has never stayed completely healthy during a season.
Joe Blanton
Why: The 28-year-old Blanton is a league-average pitcher, good for a mid-rotation spot. Instead of going after a Jon Garland type for potentially more money, it might be wise to ink Blanton for four years and close to $25M. That way you beat the market. And there’s no indication Blanton will tank like Adam Eaton. Plus, he’s a contingency if the Phils don’t want to re-sign Brett Myers after 2009.
Why not: Going year to year with Blanton doesn’t mean paying millions, so you have a cheap starter for another two seasons who should put up fine numbers. His performance doesn’t quite warrant a big deal yet, and anyways, he’ll get some ridiculous contract when he becomes a free agent.
Ryan Madson
Why: This 28-year old is heading into his prime with a postseason performance that has him at the top of the back-end reliever pile. He’s always been a good late-innings reliever, so why not reward him for his great work? Inking him for three or four years won’t cost too much …
Why not: But it likely won’t happen anyway. Madson’s agent is Scott Boras, so if you’re going to cajole Madson into a long-term deal, it would have to blow them away. Plus, there are plenty of relief options on the market each season.
Jayson Werth
Why: Coming into his own in 2008, Werth, 29, seems poised for a couple strong offensive seasons. And he’s practically a shoo-in for the starting right field spot. He wouldn’t cost too much (think $6M per season).
Why not: Outfielders are a dime a dozen. Plus, Werth’s injury history is worse than most. No need in gambling on a guy who might hurt his wrist again.
I’ll look at the other four players (Greg Dobbs, Eric Bruntlett, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey) later.
The main priorities for long-term deals remain Hamels and Victorino. Both represent key parts of the team, and both would just become more expensive next season. Hamels deserves a deal close to Chase Utley’s monster contract, while Victorino should see a three- to four-year pact.
Howard, sad to say, won’t be a Phillie much longer. I can’t see it, and the Phillies don’t seem to want to see it either. Another two seasons of playing the arbitration game seems evident, and as long as he kills the ball, he’ll win.
I’d go another year with Werth, as his injury history remains troubling. Blanton is a wild card, but you can find league-average pitching everywhere, and not for too much more than what Blanton would cost today. Madson? Forget it. I like the guy, but if Scott Boras is marketing him as a closer, there’s no way he fits with the 2010 Phillies.
Posts: 0 Keith
AAAGGGHHH!!!!!!! I hate the business side of baseball. Why can’t we just remain one happy family? (dreaming, I know)
Posted: 12:35 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Megary
Agree that Hamels has to be priority #1. He’s so good that despite the potential risk (as is the case with just about every pitcher), you have to find a way to keep him.
But the trouble with him is that he isn’t elligible for free agency until 2013. So what kind of a deal are you willing to make to secure him beyond the next 4 years? Wasn’t it Gillicks’ motto to never go beyond 3 years with a pitcher? I can’t see the Phillies going all Barry Zito with him right now. Maybe in 2 years they might be willing to go 5. His long term future as a Phillie is real foggy right now.
I wouldn’t mind Vic for 3 or 4 more years as you suggest. And call me crazy, but I’d at least test the waters with Blanton. I really like this guy.
And if he Phils have no intention of signing Howard long term, they should always be willing to deal him. They aren’t likely to do that as long as the team is in contention, but if this team should slip and slide for whatever reason, a deadline deal for the Big Man might net a boat load.
Posted: 12:42 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
The Phillies will wait as long as they can before dealing howard if at all. its so hard to replace those numbers. if theyre able to with a prolific power hitter next offseason or the year after, then youll see him moved.
hamels should get a 5 year deal at least, buying out two years of free agency i think and the rest of his arb years. victorino should get 4 years to buy out some free agency years for him as well. blanton could probably be had for cheap for 3 years if you talked to him now. not a bad investment. werth has to have another healthy year or so. madson will be moved or allowed to walk at contracts end. not bad though if hes a type A and you offer him arb. some desperate team signs him to be their closer and you get two first round picks.
Posted: 12:51 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree: Victorino and Hamels should be the priority. If Howard is willing to accept a three year deal, then go for it –if not keep him on arbitration. How old is Werth? I think a two-year deal is safe with him. If he gets injured, tough luck… but I’m pretty positive that this guy will have a great 2009 and his value will skyrocket. As for Blanton, not yet. And Madson, I’d love to see this guy with a 4-year deal or something, but Boras is a complete ass.
Posted: 12:56 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Isn’t Werth’s “injury history” because he got drilled on the wrist by a fastball, and his first surgery didn’t go right? Since he’s been with the Phillies, he’s been as reliable as anyone..
Cole Hamels definitely deserves to be bought out through his arbitration years.. he proved he can stay healthy, AND… the 5 games he started in the playoffs, were probably his best 5-game stretch at any point of the season, maybe even the best stretch of his career.. He’s special, make him happy!
Posted: 12:57 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Madson would be stupid to sign long-term with the Phillies as a setup man… if he has another good year next year, he’ll be labeled a “closer” on the open market, and get a $5 M contract somewhere
Posted: 01:00 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
On a separate note, MLB.com is running a list of it’s top 50 prospects. Marson was 43 and Carrasco was 28. Not exactly stellar.
I guess our minor league system could have used those extra picks had we offered Burrell arbitration.
Posted: 01:01 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Eb
The whole league now knows who Madson is and I would not mind the idea of trading him at some point after next season.
His value is extremely high right now, hopefully another good season and he will be worht more
Posted: 01:05 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
I agree on Madson, no player hires Scott Boras unless he intends to test the free agent waters and get the most money possible. Enjoy him while we can.
Posted: 01:06 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
You can’t blame the Phillies for not offering him arbitration… they wouldn’t want to offer more than like $12 M… and there is no way that a player with 33HRs and 85+ RBIs would lose in arbitration.. Burrell would have asked for like $15-16 or so, and he would have won, making the Phillies pay him whatever he wanted.
The Phillies will either sign him to the contract THEY want to give him, or they’ll let him walk.. and you really can’t blame them for it
Posted: 01:29 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
MLB.com also listed guys like Homer Bailey, and Delmon Young in their top 10 last year, and had Prince Fielder, and Nick Swisher among their best fantasy picks.. honestly, non of that stuff matters, they don’t know anything.
The fact that Marson and Carrasco are that much higher than last year means that more people know their names, which may or may not be directly related to playing in the Future All-Star game..
I’d like to see them both come into spring training and perform so well that you just can’t leave them off the MLB roster, but who knows what will happen with these guys
Posted: 01:34 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski
The only one worth trying to lock up is Hamels. He proved last year he can pitch well over 200+ IP and threw a legendary playoff performance. But if you were Hamels, wouldn’t you go year to year knowing a huge payoff is a couple of years away? Yes, he has some injury history but he would be worth the investment.
Did anyone hear Madson’s interview on WIP last week? Yeah, he is looking for a huge payday. Phils won’t lock up Howard unless they absolutely have to. He is awesome to watch when he is locked in and puts up numbers that cannot be replaced with one or two guys. But time and history is not on his side.
Posted: 01:46 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
No, I do blame them for not offering Burrell arbitration. What is the downside? Burrell accepts arbitration and you overpay him for one year while not having to rely on a Juan Rivera/Geoff Jenkins platoon. The upside is that you get the draft picks if you don’t re-sign Burrell. It’s all about cutting costs and I would have like them to splurge for one year while their core is all still here (before Howard leaves).
As far as Carrasco and Marson are concerned, I think they’ll be solid, but not spectacular. My point with the minor league system is that there is not enough talent to replace a Burrell leaving or Howard leaving in two years. The Phillies forfeited draft picks by signing David Bell, Thome, Tom Gordon, etc. This system could have used some extra picks.
Posted: 01:46 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I’ve said this before, many times… MOST 1st round draft picks never even make it to the Major Leagues.
You’ve been overpaying Burrell for pretty much the duration of his contract, so another year of it, at even more money, won’t help anything at all..
For losing a Free Agent you actually get a “sandwhich” pick between the 1st and 2nd round… here are the guys from 2004, I’ve heard of 12 of them:
First Round
1. San Diego, Matt Bush, ss-rhp, Mission Bay HS, San Diego.
2. Detroit, Justin Verlander, rhp, Old Dominion.
3. New York Mets, Philip Humber, rhp, Rice.
4. Tampa Bay, Jeff Niemann, rhp, Rice.
5. Milwaukee, Mark Rogers, rhp, Mount Ararat School, Orr’s Island, Maine.
6. Cleveland, Jeremy Sowers, lhp, Vanderbilt.
7. Cincinnati, Homer Bailey, rhp, La Grange (Texas) HS.
8. Baltimore, Wade Townsend, rhp, Rice.
9. Colorado, Chris Nelson, ss, Redan HS, Decatur, Ga.
10. Texas, Thomas Diamond, rhp, New Orleans.
11. Pittsburgh, Neil Walker, c, Pine Richland HS, Gibsonia, Pa.
12. Anaheim, Jered Weaver, rhp, Long Beach St.
13. Montreal, Bill Bray, lhp, William & Mary.
14. Kansas City, Billy Butler, 3b, Wolfson Senior HS, Jacksonville, Fla.
15. Arizona, Stephen Drew, ss, Florida St.
16. Toronto, David Purcey, lhp, Oklahoma.
17. Los Angeles, Timothy Elbert, lhp, Seneca (Mo.) HS.
18. Chicago White Sox, Josh Fields, 3b, Oklahoma St.
19. St. Louis, Chris Lambert, rhp, Boston College.
20. Minnesota, Trevor Plouffe, ss, Crespi Carmelite HS, Northridge, Calif.
21. Philadelphia, Greg Golson, cf, Connally HS, Austin, Texas.
22. Minnesota, Glen Perkins, lhp, Minnesota.
23. New York Yankees, Philip Hughes, rhp, Foothill HS, Santa Ana, Calif.
24. Oakland, Landon Powell, c, South Carolina.
25. Minnesota, Kyle Waldrop, rhp, Farragut HS, Knoxville, Tenn.
26. Oakland, Richie Robnett, cf, Fresno St.
27. Florida, Taylor Tankersley, lhp, Alabama.
28. Los Angeles, Blake Dewitt, 2b, Sikeston (Mo.) HS.
29. Kansas City, Matt Campbell, lhp, South Carolina.
30. Texas, Eric Hurley, rhp, Wolfson Senior HS, Jacksonville, Fla.
Sandwich Picks for Type A Players
31. Kansas City (for Raul Ibanez), James Howell, lhp, Texas
32. Toronto (for Kelvim Escobar), Zachary Jackson, lhp, Texas A&M
33. Los Angeles (for Paul Quantrill), Justin Orenduff, rhp, Virginia Commonwealth
34. Chicago White Sox (for Bartolo Colon), Tyler Lumsden, lhp, Clemson
35. Minnesota (for Eddie Guardado), Matthew Fox, rhp, Central Florida
36. Oakland (for Keith Foulke), Daniel Putnam, cf, Stanford
37. New York Yankees (for Andy Pettitte), Jonathan Poterson, c, Chandler (Ariz.) HS
38. Chicago White Sox (for Tom Gordon), Giovany Gonzalez, lhp, Monsignor Edward Pace HS, Hialeah, Fla.
39. Minnesota (for LaTroy Hawkins), Jay Rainville, rhp, Bishop Hendricken, Pawtucket, R.I.
40. Oakland (for Miguel Tejada), Huston Street, rhp, Texas
41. New York Yankees (for David Wells), Jeffrey Marquez, rhp, Sacramento CC
Posted: 02:10 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
2003 Draft, I’ve actually heard of 15 of these 37 players:
Associated Press
1. Tampa Bay, Delmon Young, of, Camarillo (Calif.) HS.
2. Milwaukee, Rickie Weeks, 2b, Southern U.
3. Detroit, Kyle Sleeth, rhp, Wake Forest.
4. San Diego, Tim Stauffer, rhp, Richmond.
5. Kansas City, Chris Lubanski, of, Kennedy-Kenrick HS, Schwenksville, Pa.
6. Chicago Cubs, Ryan Harvey, of, Dunedin HS, Palm Harbor, Fla.
7. Baltimore, Nick Markakis, lhp, Young Harris (Ga.) JC.
8. Pittsburgh, Paul Maholm, lhp, Mississippi St.
9. Texas, John Danks, lhp, Round Rock (Texas) HS.
10. Colorado, Ian Stewart, 3b, La Quinta HS, Garden Grove, Calif.
11. Cleveland, Michael Aubrey, 1b, Tulane.
12. New York Mets, Lastings Milledge, of, Lakewood Ranch HS, Palmetto, Fla.
13. Toronto, Aaron Hill, ss, LSU.
14. Cincinnati, Ryan Wagner, rhp, Houston.
15. Chicago White Sox, Brian Anderson, of, Arizona.
16. Florida, Jeff Allison, rhp, Veterans Memorial HS, Peabody, Mass.
17. Boston, David Murphy, of, Baylor.
18. Cleveland, Brad Snyder, of, Ball St.
19. Arizona, Conor Jackson, 3b, California.
20. Montreal, Chad Cordero, rhp, Cal State Fullerton.
21. Minnesota, Matthew Moses, 3b, Mills Godwin HS, Richmond, Va.
22. San Francisco, David Aardsma, rhp, Rice.
23. Anaheim, Richard Wood, ss, Horizon HS, Scottsdale, Ariz.
24. Los Angeles, Chad Billingsley, rhp, Defiance (Ohio) HS.
25. Oakland, Bradley Sullivan, rhp, Houston.
26. Oakland, Brian Snyder, 3b, Stetson.
27. New York Yankees, Eric Duncan, 3b, Seton Hall Prep, Florham Park, N.J.
28. St. Louis, Daric Barton, c, Marina HS, Huntington Beach, Calif.
29. Arizona, Carlos Quentin, of, Stanford.
30. Kamsas City Royals, Mitch Maier, c, Toledo.
First Round Supplemental
31. Cleveland, Adam Miller, rhp, McKinney (Texas) HS
32. Boston, Matthew Murton, cf, Georgia Tech.
33. Oakland, Omar Quintanilla, ss, Texas.
34. San Francisco, Roger Whitaker, rhp, Lufkin (Texas) HS.
35. Atlanta, Luis Atilano Gabriela, rhp, Gabriela Mistral, San Juan, P.R.
36. Atlanta, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c, Royal Palm Beach HS, West Palm Beach, Fla.
37. Seattle, Adam Jones, ss, Samuel Morse HS, San Diego.
Posted: 02:13 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Dude, even if their budget has gone up and they can afford to spend more, they still have a budget. when youre operating on a budget you cant just blow a ton of money (25mm) on two guys (burrell and moyer) that dont really give you production enought to make that money worthwhile. jamie moyers not going to win that many games again, AND very few other teams even would sign him. so to offer him arb makes him UNSIGNABLE TO ANYONE OTHER THAN THE PHILLIES. in otherwords, if they want to keep him, theyll pay the overrated arb price. otherwise, get him at your price and not his. same with burrell.
i dont like their decisions sometimes, but they did win a championship with some of those moves…so arbitration is HARDLY the time to flip out on them…seeing wahts out there now..its the right thing to do to let burrell walk. hes not a NL outfielder anymore.
Posted: 02:13 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Don M, for losing Burrell, the Phillies would receive a 1st rounder and a sandwich pick. The Yankees used the compensation picks they used from the Phillies (for Tom Gordon) to draft Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.
Posted: 02:19 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
I never said anything about Jamie Moyer and arbitration.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Burrell will get a 3 year deal from an AL club and the Phils will have missed out on the extra picks. But we’ll all be happy when they sign Juan Rivera and a starting pitcher off the scrap heap.
Posted: 02:21 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I like Blanton for 3 if you can get him for cheap. I think that he’s going to pan out. He has found some confidence here that he couldn’t find in Oakland. Remember, this guy was their opening day starter and they have some pretty good arms in Oakland… he has talent. Don’t know why Howard’s days have to be limited… he’ll want money but (I’ll use the familiar phrase from our WS run) why can’t us? Hamels is a tough case… his value is obviously high right now and I believe that he is that good, however, if we can go year to year for the next four years, that squashes a lot of risk. He’s not a big guy… pitchers with his frame tend to develop issues. Is it worth the risk and is he really going to be around for much longer than 4? Would he settle for anything less than 5 years? Madson is gone. Vic and Werth should both get signed if the price is right… Werth for 3 and Vic for 5… since we got rid of Golson, we don’t have any contingency plans in CF (minor leaguers that might be ready anytime soon). Gotta sign Vic and sign Werth for the time being while he’s still cheap.
Posted: 02:27 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Because in two years howard wont be able to play first base and this is the NL….
Posted: 02:31 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
exactly, so why not spend some extra money this year while the core is still here, before Howard leaves?
Posted: 02:33 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I wonder if this gets it done for hamels: 5 years 67 mm: 8 – 11 – 14 – 16 – 18 with 18mm option for year 6
thats a phillies range deal…
Posted: 02:34 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
right..but not on pat burrell. you can overpay for pitching, which is more valuable than almost anything else except ryan howard chase utley and j-roll
Posted: 02:36 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 mike
Don M you are right if the phillies offered arb. then the worst case is burrell is here one more year at 16 million. or we get two choices, Your argument about first picks is in my opinion not valid, you are saying if we had this picks the chances are we would blow them, so if you have good scouts then you should hit on some. second if we sign lowe now we lose a first and second .30 pick in first round wouldn’t it be nice to have someone else first round to fall back on. third draft choices are control. for 6 years and if you draft a player like we did with hamel howard and others we can build a team within budject, To me it seems nomatter how they do business you defend them, we need a better minor leagues system to replace players who leave or in howard case want more money, burrell numbers are hard to replace and as stated before if he did accept at least we can have more time to see if taylor can play or brown, instead of another jenkins signing. you can list player who were drafted in the first round who didn’t make it all day so it proves the point the more choices in the higher rounds the better odds to hit on a star.
Posted: 02:41 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Griffin, did you have BITTER for breakfast and lunch today??
RELAX dude..
I would rather have Juan Rivera and another starting pitcher off the scrap heap, then pay Burrell $16M for 6 innings of baseball a night.. They didn’t offer him arbitration because they were worried that he would accept it because he wants to play here, and if he wants to play here that bad, lets just sign him again.
It sounds to me like you are way more worried about the missing draft picks than you are about Burrell actually staying and playing here.
Read over those lists real quick, most guys DON’T make the mlb rosters.. after 4-5 years, a 1st round pick should definitely be a name we’ve heard of if he was really that good… maybe we’ll start hearing more of these names this year, but draft picks are risky to begin with, so you shouldn’t ever bank on them
Posted: 02:42 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Mike, that was really hard to follow, honestly..
Im not saying that just the PHILLIES would blow their first round draft picks, i’m saying that MOST 1st ROUND DRAFT PICKS NEVER REACH THE MAJORS… Its not anyone’s fault.. how can you project weather or not a player will continue to improve 4-5 years form when you draft them?
That is just the way it is.. and i’ve defended our scouts and draft picks all year long. Every team drafts on talent, tools, and potential …and they openly say that they are searching for the next All-Star.. there are plenty of guys that hit .300+ in college, but teams draft the 17 year old OF instead because of his potential. And more times then not, the guy doesn’t make it all the way up to the big leagues.
I’m never all about defending the team, but what I try to do is make you guys see the business side of it, and understand where the teams are coming from. how they wont get Lowe or Burnett because other teams would simply outbid us for them, etc..
Posted: 02:51 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 mike
you get there first round pick if its 16 through 30 and a sandwich pick. right now D’Arud our second best catching prospect was a sandwich so was cardenas who was traded for balaton, for ever choice who didn;t make it how about chipper jones, hanley raminez hamel, rodrizez, price, ultley, should I keep going, how many guys with pats number get paid under 12 million and have his on base percentage. Dom if they were going after a top free agent then maybe I could see it but mark loretta ,punto, come on its just a cheap way to do business. you must p get something back for a guy who carryed this team for a while in the begining of the season and had some clutch hits, and protected howard. but you must be satisfy with one title in 28 years.
Posted: 02:51 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
How much do you think the Phillies should have offered him in arbitration this year?
AND
How much do you think Burrell would have asked for in arbitration? I just want to see where you are coming from with this
Posted: 02:53 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 maxhole
if burrell walks that is one less contract the phils have to worry about. burrells contract should be replaced with a deal for cole. hamels is emotional, so security is an issue for him. he proved himself, so buy him before he goes schilling on us. he’s not going to just suck (zito effect) because he doesn’t have to prove himself anymore. let arbitration pay him big, but sign him sooner than later. as for howard, let him get paid in arb too, trade him in last season of arb eligibility, whatever. no national league team can afford him anyway, so the player(s) you would get for him in AL would be rewarding.
Posted: 03:07 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Don M, why would you say I’m bitter? Is it because I’m arguing a point?
My point with the arbitration is that the reward is definitely worth the risk (which is paying Burrell for ONE more year). You can argue that most first round picks don’t turn out, but tell that to Myers, Hamels and Utley (I won’t bring up Gavin Floyd).
Posted: 03:08 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
guys, dons right on the money here….why the HECK do you think there are like a hundred rounds in the mlb draft? BECAUSE MOST OF THEM, like probably over 70% of all drafted players, dont even come close to making it. (can someone check that? im probably not too far off…)
and i also agree that it IS much more value-oriented to sign rivera and a 3rd or 4th starter than to pay pat burrell.
also, ruben amaro has reached out to ryan madson and jayson werth to try to open extension talks…interesting two to start with…
i dont know why im in agreement with don, maybe the fact that the phillies won a championship has calmed me down a bit. but im not really mad at the arb thing at all…its a waste to sign loretta though, let donald play…
Posted: 03:10 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 maxhole
right on the money except for the part about burrell being six inning guy. how often did that screw us when he was taken out? enough with that already. yea hes slow, but his defense wasn’t shotty, unlike his replacements.
Posted: 03:13 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Given their decision to not offer arb to Burrell and Moyer, thereby saving the approximately $25MM that everyone seems to think it would have cost had both accepted arb, and assuming that we can’t sign Derek Lowe (a reasonable assumption) I really think it makes sense for Amaro to trade for Dye. He’ll replace Burrell’s production for a cost of $12MM next year, and I think the Phillies could get it done – Happ plus one or two lesser prospects.
After trading Vasquez, the White Sox need another starter, and the obvious trading chip on that team is Dye. The buzz most frequently heard revolves around Homer Bailey, and if Kenny Williams would take Bailey and a throw-in I’d think Happ would get it done. He’s three years older, but his stats were worlds better than Bailey’s in both the majors and AAA last year. The Sox, despite their trades, are still positioned as contenders in the AL and seem to think of themselves that way, making Happ a far better fit than Bailey whose upside, despite his recent struggles, is still seen as high by many.
Trading Happ would make it imperative to re-sign Moyer as the #4 guy, with Carrasco and Kendrick (and, I suppose, Eaton) battling for the fifth spot. If Moyer could be had for $7-8MM, coupled with Dye’s contract the Phils would still have $5MM in savings versus the presumed arbitration cost of Moyer and Burrell. They could use that on another bullpen spot and a utility guy.
Posted: 03:16 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 maxhole
dye has no trade clause to philly. i’d agree otherwise.
Posted: 03:18 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Oops. Maybe he’ll waive it now that we’re world f’n champs?
Posted: 03:23 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 TheDipsy
Think about it this way. I give you 16 million dollars (that you wouldn’t have otherwise had) and you get to spend it on you baseball team. Would you spend it on:
A) Pat Burrell for one year? OR;
B) Just about anything else you could think of?
I’ll take B.
The Dipsy
Posted: 03:24 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 maxhole
great argument
Posted: 03:27 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I said bitter because this team just won the WORLD SERIES, and your laying all this blame on them for not offering arbitration to Pat Burrell, when if they want him, they can get him at their price, not at what he or a panel wants.
I was going to bring up Gavin Floyd.. who would have never worked here, for whatever the same reasons that Lidge needed to get out of Houston
Posted: 03:27 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 TheDipsy
Now Pete is thinking like a knowledgeable fan. 21st century fans have to be in touch with the economic realities of their teams. You just can’t take a shopping cart and grab everything you see. Say, if we did get a sandwich pick in the draft, would we call it a “Ruben Sandwich Pick”? Hahahaha Heehee. I got a million of em.
Posted: 03:28 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Woodman
TRADE Madson now! He’s at his peak value. If Boras is pushing him as a closer, how about to San Diego in a package with minor leaguers for PEAVY? The Padres need a closer now that they have severed ties with Hoffman. I’ll take Hamels, Peavy, Myers, Blanton as the top four starters. The Phils can replace Madson to add a top line starter.
Posted: 03:29 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
If only the Phillies would go out and spend the 16 million for this season, then choice B would be the obvious answer.
Posted: 03:29 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Dye has a no-trade clause, and Philadelphia is one of the six teams that he would accept a trade too, was how I understood it
Posted: 03:30 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Depends what the realistic “anything else” options are. I’m in the Don M camp of thinking we’ll never sign Lowe, and I don’t want Burnett, who’s never really proven anything for any sustained period of time despite his big arm. The pitcher I’d most like to see them sign is Sheets, depending on the price. The reality of letting Burrell walk is that there is now a gaping hole in the middle of our batting order. Choosing to platoon left field with Jenkins/Dobbs/Stairs and some mystery cheap FA doesn’t seem like a good solution unless we seriously upgrade the pitching staff.
Long story short, the problem with letting Burrell walk is the lack of viable options to replace him. I liked the thought of Dye, but as maxhole points out, he has a NTC for Philly. I’ll wait to see what Amaro does, but I don’t see a lot of upside in the decision to decline arb to PtB.
Posted: 03:31 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
and then who is the setup man once Madson leaves? The ALL IMPORTANT back end of the bullpen is what won us the World Series.. you can’t just trade that all away because they have value now
Posted: 03:31 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
I agree Pete, and don’t forget, Sheets is a type A free agent, so signing him would leave us with no first round pick.
Posted: 03:32 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
juan rivera isnt a bad option when healthy. he barely played in that crowded outfield. between him and jenkins you can get decent production. werth and victorino are your everyday players. stairs/mayberry battle for 5th man spot.
Posted: 03:34 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Pete
Also, why would the Padres trade Peavy in a deal where the centerpiece is a 1-year rental for them? It’s not like they’re going to contend next year. The whole idea from their perspective is to get a boatload of young talent that is UNDER CONTROL for multiple years. Madson is not that and I can’t see the Padres paying him Rivera money to close for what will still be a crappy team in 2010.
Posted: 03:34 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Geoff, I do think Juan Rivera is the best of the cheap platoon outfielders, but can the Phillies even get him on a one year deal, or would he want at least two (like Jenkins last year)?
Posted: 03:36 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
dude…two things:
1 – signing madson now to 3-4 year extension IS getting him for cheap…
2 – itd take more than ryan madson and “a package of some prospects” to get jake peavy. the phone call will go like this:
amaro : he we want jake peavy
towers: ok sure…ryan madson, lou marson, carlos carrasco
amaro: no, sorry
towers: (hangs up immediately)
Posted: 03:37 PM on December 3, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
dude…two things:
1 – signing madson now to 3-4 year extension IS getting him for cheap…
2 – itd take more than ryan madson and “a package of some prospects” to get jake peavy. the phone call will go like this:
amaro : he we want jake peavy
towers: ok sure…ryan madson, lou marson, carlos carrasco, michael taylor, and two lower system prospects
amaro: no, sorry
towers: (hangs up immediately)
Posted: 03:37 PM on December 3, 2008