Phillies Nation

Why is everyone being so pessimistic? Is it so you can have a chance to be THAT GUY at the end of the season who says “I told you so”.

Instead of “not being sure” about the Pillies offseason moves, why don’t you do some actual research and look at some worthwhile statistics. Then, come and post your ideas.

We didn’t get worse at left. Ibanez is better than Burrell, and more consistent on a regular basis, in every offensive category except walks and HR’s. The man has had 3 straight seasons of 100+ RBI’s. Yeah, ok, he’s not fast. Who cares? That’s what happends when you get a bit older, you lose a step or two. We didn’t have a quick left fielder last season and we won it all, and we won’t again this season but we have more offensive production.

As far as Moyer, say what you want about what “could” happen to him. But know this, you can’t just pick a 16 game winner out of a damn tree. I believe that was something along the lines of what Ruben said yesterday.

Nevertheless, start showing some faith in the Phillies and Amaro Jr. They deserve it.

Hopefully, NJ. I don’t want to see him giving the Mets one of the key things they need so badly: consistency.

Lets also not forget about a full season with Blanton and Happ/Carasco/Park, which is a better combo than Kendrick and Eaton. Isn’t that worth a few more wins over the course of a season?

And, we did not get worse with Ibanez, but rather, moved up a notch all around. Good pickup .

Phils will take Division once again. As long as “Omar the Great” is the MUTS GM, that NO HEART team is going nowhere. They still are VERY thin at SP and have no corner outfielders, along with 2 of the most overrated players in the game with Beltran and Reyes, and an aging Delgado

So if everyone is so certain that Ibanez and Moyer will have terrible years and these contracts will be bad because they are so old… how is Lowe for 4 years such a great idea?

I understand the point about these guys being “old” ….but if you are using that theory about Ibanez and Moyer, you need to take that into account for Derek Lowe too, because I think he’s 36 to start this season, and because he throws that much harder, his arm probably has as much wear as Jamie Moyer’s..

Griffin, we agree on the Moyer deal. He’s a great pitcher, but I don’t understand why we give him 2 years and be so afraid to go with Lowe (who is durable plus 10 years younger!) for 3 or 4.

But it looks like Ibanez is a slight upgrade offensively … His BA has been gradually going up since 2005 (.280, .289, .291, .293). He has been solid not only in 2008, but in previous years with the M’s. This guy is good. My only concern is the 3rd year in his contract.

We had room to improve, despite winning the WS, and we have done little to nothing about it.

I don’t know the first thing about Rob Neyer… but pretty much EVERYONE in baseball, would consider Raul Ibanez a better all-around player than Pat Burrell…

so him saying that move makes us “worse is left field” in just dumb

and Jamie Moyer has been underpaid for the past two years, and has earned every single penny of his new contract based on what he’s done since he’s been on the Phillies. HE was arguably the best pitcher on this team last year.. people we’re saying that up until the playoffs, so lets not all pretend like keeping Moyer isn’t a very good thing. Is he going to win the Cy Young in the NL this year? No. But he’ll sure help the Phillies win ballgames… and to get someone as good as Moyer for $7 M or so a year is a steal.. I dont care how old he is

I don’t know how people can we we’ve done little to improve from last year. Please don’t forget, we have Blanton for an entire year. This guy was a potential stud who got lazy on a bad A’s team. I think Blanton could have a great season, better than Moyer’s last year

So please explain to me how it is negative to want your team to improve? Yes, they won the ws, we’re all thrilled, but does that mean we’re all supposed to do cartwheels because they chose to remain stagnant? And yes, swapping Ibanez and Burrell is basically a wash, it’s great to have Moyer back, but where is the urgency to remain competetive while everyone else is making moves? You can’t rest on your laurels, the Phillies have done that for decades.

Georgie, I agree completely.

Don M., those are impressive stats, but I think counting on Moyer to repeat last year’s performance is very risky. His expected ERA was close to 4.50, meaning he was pretty fortunate last season.

Don… so to argue in favor of Moyer you pull out the crazy 2008 statistics? But for other players you encourage us to look at their career stats? At least be consistent.

I understand.. but why will Lowe definitely have a great season, and improve, but Moyer will definitely fail

Common sense would say there was NO POSSIBLE WAY that Moyer could have had a better season last year than he did in 2007, right??

Because you guys are all saying that THE reason Moyer isn’t good is because of his age, and he can’t repeat those numbers.. Somebody said how he had 16 wins, to which I said wins don’t matter for pitchers..

I would like to believe that regular season Jamie Moyer, not posteason Jamie Moyer is the real pitcher..

I got one for all the Burrell Lovers in a minute too.

Don M, the reason why Moyer most likley will not match his ’08 numbers last year is because he was extremely fortunate to have given up as few runs as he did given the amount of hits/walks and lack of strikeouts. I’m not thinking that he will all of a sudden fall off a cliff because of age, but with a pitcher like him, the margin of error is slim.
Also, I’m not a Burrell lover, but I do prefer him to a 37 year old Ibanez.

I agree that Moyer will probably not have the same year he did in 2008… but to get a pitcher as good as he is, for two years at that price is a good deal.

Im really, really, praying that they get Lowe too, because it would give us a great chance at another postseason run.. but the cost to get him is probably going to be a whole lot more than he is really worth.. and a bad move like that can really trap your team in 2-3 years.

If you are looking for someone outside of Philadelphia media who liked the Ibanez pick up, you won’t find anyone.

It’s exactly like if you were trying to find one baseball analyst who thought the Phillies would beat the Dodgers or the Rays. They were no where to be found until we were up 3-1.

No one really likes Philadelphia because of the how passionate the real fans are.

Even that website thebiglead hates Philly. Of course, they don’t blatantly show it. But, if you read into some of their blogs about Philadelphia, it always has some sort of negative connotation to it.

Also, is in unreasonable to expect a 37, 38 and 39 year old Ibanez to not be as good as the 34, 35 and 36 year old Ibanez?

Manny, I hear ya, I just don’t know why they went out and gave the left-handed Ibanez 3 years for his age 37. 38 and 39 year old seasons, when Burrell or Dunn are going to be younger and cheaper. It just doesn’t make sense to me. By locking themselves into a 3 year deal for Ibanez and re-signing Moyer for 2 years, they’re basically finished for the offseason and it’s incredibly unimpressive.

NJ, the Phillies could have been more creative through trades and used their money more intelligently to improve the team. How exactly? That’s for the front office to figure out. But throwing a 3 year deal at a DH and not taking advantage of the flooded corner outfield market to lower the price (unlike how Gillick waited until Pedro Feliz’s price came down last offseason) and paying 13-16 million and guaranteeing 2 years for Moyer is uncreative. It’s just saying “we won, so why improve? Let’s keep everything together!”.

It’s hard to argue that the Muts are the most improved team this offseason and the Phillies aren’t better at all.

We don’t look better because it’s glass half empty. I agree the Phillies could have been more creative through trades but I have a sneaky feeling there weren’t any trades to make worth the cost, I like DeRosa but was very unimpressed with how that deal could have turned out. Pitching wise the upper-tier of the market is dry, guys like Cain, Grienke and only available to teams able to part with a Fielder or a Delmon Young and as for veterans there wasn’t really anyone healthy available at a reasonable cost.

On the half empty side your looking at a bad start from Myers, an guy who will be incapable of sustaining his level of performance due to age in Moyer, an overrated bookend in Blanton. A downgrade with an old ‘DH’ in Ibanez, a guy who’s been figured out in Durbin who’ll expose the bullpen and a handful more headaches to come because of inactivity.

On the glass half-full side your looking at your GM being aggressive early in the off-season- With an ace, a guy who was considered to have been the 2nd best addition to a rotation in the second half in Myers, Blanton who’s one of the best middle of the rotation guys in the game, Moyer old yes but healthy who doesn’t need high velocity to be effective. A 100+ RBI, clubhouse leader in Ibanez (and the FO will have done their homework on his ability to man left in CBP). We’ve added a mutliple innings reliver to compliment Durbin and let Romero be the match-up late innings guy and Madson’s emerged as a bonifide set-up guy. We’re also looking at Howard and Rollins coming off down years and Donald who is coverted on the trade market who can spot 2nd if Utley misses time.

On the cup half-full side things look pretty good. I don’t think it’s arrogance that has stopped making serious upgrades from outside rather a confidence in the emergence and expected re-emergences from within.

NJ: For offense, I use the glass half-full view… But for pitching, you simply can’t afford to be too optimistic. You HAVE to see it half-empty. As of today, we are one Hamels-injury away from being No.2 or 3 in the division. We can’t afford it… and we didn’t mitigate any risks for our starting rotation. Our rotation, still drops off notably after Hamels. (I’m sorry but Park is no insurance…his inconsistent stats speak for themselves)…That’s what concerns me the most.

I think the Muts will make a run at Burrell. They need a right bat to split time with David Murphy in LF and Burrell’s price will come way down. He’ll be a bargain and make the Ibanez signing look silly.
I also think the Muts will either sign Lowe or re-sign Oliver Perez. I hope it’s Perez.

They can’t afford Burrell and Perez, Minaya’s said they probably can’t afford a guy of Lowe’s cost and that still leaves them with virtually no bench depth and no insurance whatsoever if Neise doesn’t work out. Their also relying on Delgado, Castillo and Beltran being healthy because there’s no depth past guys like Tatis also having virtually nothing servicable in the minors past complete long-shots.

I feel much better as a Phils fan and not so scared of the Mets when you break down far more deficiencies than the Phillies.

Don M, Burrell has a better OBP and SLG in his career. OBP is a better stat than BA because it factors in walks. So yes, Ibanez does get more singles, but Burrell gets on base more often and hits for better power.

NJ, I agree with you that the Muts still have deficiencies, and I hope they don’t get Lowe and selfishly don’t want them to get Burrell. The Muts will be favorites to win the division, but they’ve been favorites the last two years as well.

Tyler, I’d rather give Lowe 2/34 than Sheets 3/36. Sheets is always hurt and couldn’t even pitch down the stretch or in the playoffs last year. I’d be shocked if anyone gives him 3 years.

You guys know my stance.. and you also know that I pull random stats out my a$$ to support whatever arguement I’m making.

Put for people to complain that Ibanez is too old at 36, but his production has acutally gone UP the past few years, while Burrell’s has gone down..

and the things Burrell leads in are OBP% and SLUGGING… that is a real stretch.

I understand that everyone likes Burrell, and I wanted them to keep him around for like 2 more years.. because I like him.. but he’s also driven me nuts as a Phillies fan because he’s so inconsistent. I wish him all the best, but I’d like to see him walk all the way to Oakland, where they value OBP% above all else