Counter Offer For Lowe? Sit On It
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, December 31, 2008 08:00 AM | Comments: 100
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The Mets have reportedly offered Derek Lowe a three-year, $36 million contract.
Lowe and agent Scott Boras seem to want something closer to a five-year, $70 million deal for the right-handed starter. It was reported that the Phillies made an offer to Lowe during the Winter Meetings, but that offer was questioned later, and a Phillies official denied it (at least, an official denied a three-year offer).
It’s obvious Lowe won’t get the five years he seeks. But he’ll get better offers than the one the Mets threw up there. So should the Phillies throw their chips onto the table? I don’t think so. It’s pretty evident the Phils don’t want to take on Lowe’s demands anymore, especially with a slew of arbitration-eligible players slobbering over their 2009 paychecks. They’re fooling nobody at this point.
The Mets are poised to sign Lowe, maybe not for three years and $36 million, but for something agreeable for both sides. It’s very likely the Phils will be staring at this rotation in 2009: Johan Santana/Derek Lowe/John Maine/Mike Pelfrey/Jon Niese. Is that so bad? The Phils defeated Lowe twice in a week back in October. They also handled Pelfrey for a 4.24 ERA. Maine has fared well against the Phillies during his career, but he’s still hittable.
Basically, the Phillies don’t have the required cash to sign Lowe. Not after Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth receive raises. Not after Raul Ibanez signed. The Mets, meanwhile, are willing to spend the money to seize Lowe. It raises the eternal question: Should the Phils break the bank? Should any team break the bank?
Recent world champions demonstrate that spending a generous amount of money on player payroll helps the cause. Last year’s Phillies broke the $100 million mark and finished with the gold ring. Before that, the big-spending Red Sox took home the crown. And before that, the Cardinals — a somewhat frugal, but always ready spender — found triumph. The list goes on. Yes, you almost have to spend some money to win the title. But you also have to be wise.
Loading up on free agents during the offseason isn’t always the satisfying idea. Sure it’s tempting to grab all the foods at the buffet line immediately, but when your plate is half finished and your stomach is bloated, you know you made a mistake. Are the Yankees guaranteed a championship with CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and AJ Burnett on board? Absolutely not. Nobody thought the Phillies could win a title with the soft additions of Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, Chad Durbin and Brad Lidge. But once he sorted out the details and discovered the holes, Pat Gillick found his plugs: left-handed specialist Scott Eyre, big-hitting bench player Matt Stairs, stopgap starter Joe Blanton. Hell, he found great plugs in his own system: All-world athlete Jayson Werth and resurgent starter Brett Myers, for two.
The Phillies won because they constructed a complete team by the end of 2008. Right now, they have a somewhat incomplete troupe, with small potential weaknesses in the rotation, the early part of the bullpen and the bench. Nothing to panic about. And nothing worth the trouble of a damaging contract like Derek Lowe’s. Let the Mets worry about that one — let them gamble with an albatross by June 2010. There’s no reason the Phils need to play coy: They’re fooling nobody.
Posts: 0 fred
Can we please stop just quoting statistics players put up against only the Phillies ? The season is 162 games long, not just 12 games against the Mets. We could jack Lowe up 3 times and he could still add 4-6 wins to the Mets total by beating the likes of Washington and Florida, not to mention Pittsburgh etc. Who won the season series between us and the Mets last year ? They did, but we performed better against everyone else and hence won a title. Just cos we got to Lowe in October dosn’t make him a bad pitcher. It’s ridiculous that we’re prepared to spend money on Ibanez but not Lowe, especially with all the revenue generated last year by winning the WS, setting a record high in attendence and all the additional gate receipts/merchandise sales that come with playing deep into October.
Posted: 09:08 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
Fred, you forgot to mention how the cost to get into the ballpark for 2009 went up by an average of $5 per ticket too. That should be enough to sign Derek Lowe…
Posted: 09:44 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 RK
They should do what they can within reason to get Lowe, he would be a perfect fit here.
Posted: 09:52 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
I don’t see how Lowe would be an “albatross” in the 3rd year of his contract either. He’s not a power pitcher. He hasn’t really shown signs of wear and tear. He’s always healthy. We just signed Moyer to pitch until he’s 48.
To not counter offer on Lowe, after all the gate receipts and with all the money this club now has is not just frustrating, it’s irresponsible.
Posted: 10:04 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Phil
It just sucks we don’t have an ace/big game pitcher, right Scot? Maybe Lowe could be that for us.
Posted: 10:13 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Rob Cowie
Uh hello? Cole Hamels isn’t the ace/big gamer of the Phillies?
Posted: 10:42 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Well he could be an albatross, just as any free agent signing can be an albatross. It’s always a gamble.
The difference between the Phils and — well — everyone is the arbitration guys. These are priority one. The Phils showed they can win with their homegrown talent. Let’s take care of them first.
Posted: 10:48 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
The question becomes how damaging will he be to the Phils as a Met, is it worth getting into a bidding war knowing they can outbid but have greater payroll concerns than we do with the holes on their roster.
We don’t know the real situation behind the Phillies finances, there is a large amount of money potentially coming off the books at the end of the year to think if the Phils can scrape together the money for Lowe this year the books will look ok going into next year but is it possible, not too sure.
As I’ve said before the game Amaro seems to be playing is expecting more from the guys already on roster that had down years to beat the benefits of free agents. I don’t think we NEED Lowe like the Mets do, that said it all hinges on Brett Myers again to be consistent.
Posted: 10:56 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Um…Cole Hamels outperformed Derek Lowe in those big games….how can you possibly say, after this postseason, that Hamels is not a big game ace pitcher? I mean, really? he had the best postseason ever by a starting pitcher, more or less.
They can afford to match the Mets offer I think, if they really wanted too. But that will lead to a trade of Myers. So youd be swapping Myers for Lowe. The Mets offer for Lowe is about right, I think. Thats the most money Id offer for Lowe. Match the offer and give him a choice to make. Other than that, if Boras goes higher, then pass. 12mm is too much as it is, but for 3 yaers its not too bad. Id offer 3/30 but that wont really help.
Lowe is more consistent than Myers, and thats the only reason id accept that substitution in the rotation.
Posted: 11:06 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
Rob, Phil is still upset that I was pointing out through July and August that Hamels was giving up wins for no decisions or losses against the likes of the Cardinals, Mets, and Nationals. Of course we all agree that since then he’s more than proven his worth, and is our ace and big game guy. Some people just can’t let things go.
Posted: 11:09 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 scot
Why does adding Lowe force a trade of Myers again?
Posted: 11:10 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
because theyre not going to keep their payroll at that level if they sign lowe. i mean, come on man, this is the phillies were talking about. theyd maybe sign lowe for 15mm for 3 years, but then theyd turn around and move myers’ 12mm. the payroll is already way up with arbitration, ibanez, moyer. im just quick guessing but it seems to be at about 115-120 BEFORE arb raises. tack on another 10-15 to be safe for arb raises (hamels, blanton, madson, werth, shane will all get substantial raises): 125-135
adding derek lowe at 15mm per year: 140-150mm is your payroll EXCLUDING a right-handed bench bat and another reliver which they kind of need. do you REALLY think the phillies would have a payroll that high? theyd need to shed myers’ contract to get it down to a 128-138mm type of range. give or take 5mm either direction, thats what their payroll is. hamels will be making 7mm, blanton 7mm. howard up to 14mm, etc.
their payroll will explode this offseason just by arb alone.
Posted: 11:30 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Chuck P
Lowe/Bor-ass will not take 3/12… no way, no how… one more year and more money won’t even get it done done. This is Bor-ass baiting the market. At that price, any team would be silly not to take a look. But once they’re in the Lowe-bonanza, they realize that 3/12 is a far cry from what it’s really going to take.
Bad contracts can really hurt this team… we’re a team that will thrive on a mix of homegrown talent (going year to year as long as possible… going to arb might eventually cost more money per year but it’s less risky) and consistent veterans with reasonable salary demands. We can’t get caught up in that stuff because one bad contract can set us back more than a few years. I would agree that if you add Lowe, you probably need to subtract Myers.
Posted: 11:44 AM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
I don’t see the Phils being able to add Lowe and subtract Myers, barring the Phils collapsing Myers will finish out the year a Phil because no-ones giving value for a $12m ‘head-case’ when you have to move him. If Lowe is added (and near 3/36 might be the number since Boras’s bargaining chips are all but done) then Happ is lost in the numbers game and our only real tradable piece in the rotation to cut payroll is the relitavely inexpensive Blanton.
To be honest I and most of us here probably don’t see a realistic bid going in for Lowe at this point, the rosters pretty much set for the year and it’s a good enough one to stay in contention if the guys perform.
Posted: 12:09 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
We should throw 3 years/ $39 at Lowe… Make the Mets counter that, so if they do sign him its for $2-3 M more per year than they want to… which doesn’t sound like much, but when you’ve got guys like Billy Wagner and Luis Castillo eating salary, that $2-3 M could be used for middle relievers, they exact kind of pitching they desperatly need… and still don’t have!
Posted: 12:13 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah you know the mets will get desperate and break for 3/45 if we do that…the mets bullpen is still sad.
closer: K-Rod
setup: Putz
middle/long: garabge
heilman, schowenweis, smith are all gone, but they havent even really replaced them at all yet! there are vacant gaping holes in there. they have NO middle relief. duaner sanchez is horrible.
I mean, if Lowe accepts the phillies coutner-proposal for some reason, then theyd compensate with dumping myers’ salary. other than lowe, i dont think any other starters are in the mix for them. they could still use another decent releiver.
Posted: 12:21 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
do they even have any lefty relievers other than pedro feliciano? throw something up, make the mets waste more money. their pen is still trash, who cares if they add lowe.
Posted: 12:24 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
I had to look: The mets current bullpen is
K-Rod (CL)
Putz (SU)
D. Sanchez
P. Feliciano
Sean Green (from SEA)
Brian Stokes
C. Muniz
that is a HORRIBLE bullpen. sanchez and feliciano cant get anybody out when the season is on the line. they have NO middle relief. look at that SLOP, GARBAGE bullpen. the mets think they have to sign derek lowe, but they should be looking at people like russ springer, juan cruz, etc to bolster the bullpen.
you knwo what? make another offer for lowe…make the mets sweat it out. if he signs, he signs. if he goes to the mets…good.
Posted: 12:33 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 metsblow4show
Hey Don, I agree with you 100%. I wouldn’t go any higher then that though. As for Myers, he is a free agent after this year and I don’t think the Phils brass really want the ” head case ” back, so I would let him go out there and pitch like he is pitching for his big payday. Then shop him before the deadline and see what you can get. The worst case scenario is they keep him for the season, let him file for free agency, offer him arbitration, and pick up a couple of draft picks to make up for the picks we lost signing Ibanez, when he signs elsewhere. Carasco can fill his spot in 2010.
Posted: 12:38 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Unrelated.. but I’m in a keeper league… should I hang on to Jacoby Ellsbury, or Camron Maybin ???
Is Maybin really the starting CF for the Marlins this year, as listed on the depth chart on their website?
thanks for your input guys
Posted: 12:38 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Counting on Carrasco as the #2 next year is asking a lot..
Posted: 12:40 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
you guys are getting caught up in one bad half of awful relief. you guys are forgetting what sanchez and feliciano were doing to you guys before they struggled. They were both MONEY, and will be Money this year along with Putz and Krod, and all the other guys we’ll have….Keep talking, you guys have been talking a lot this offseason. you guys have a lot of living up to do this year, lets see if you guys will be able to hold it down….I really doubt it…
Posted: 12:45 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 metsblow4show
I wasn’t talking about the #2 spot, just a spot in the rotation.
Posted: 12:45 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
Elisbury has a better lineup behind him. But Maybin is nasty too, i would go with Elisbury
Posted: 12:47 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Brooks
Don, I like your idea of upping the price by a few mil. Bor-ass (nice name) will turn it down of course but this will up the anti for the Muts who will bite.
The more they put out, the harder they fall, the bigger the dissappointment and the harder we all laugh!
Go for it Muts!
Posted: 12:48 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 metsblow4show
Hey Phil, all I know is that come September you and your Muts will be choking on your own “nutz” again.
Posted: 12:49 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 psujoe
At this point the Phillies salary is almost dead even with last years, but obviously we still have arbitration increases coming. We’re saving 6 million in LF(Ibanez only gets 6.5 +2 mil bonus this year), 2.5 million on Park vs Gordon, another 1.25 on stairs, Helms money and some other small savings. No way the Phillies arbitration increases will be 40 million so we’re probably talking a salary increase so far this year around 20-25 million. Lowe is very affordable at 13-14 per for 3 years, IMO.
Posted: 12:50 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 joshua
not to sound as arrogant as the previous poster,
but he’s right felicano and sanchez were good the first half of the season, they got bad when they were forced into situations they shouldn’t have to do…now with putz and Krod, they won’t need to be in those situations…unless someone gets injured.
also, with relief pitchers they fluctuate, look at lidge in 07 compared to 08.
Posted: 12:51 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Mike T.
don,
not sure how your point system is set up, but it seems to me that maybin has the potential to be a better fantasy player. BUT, i’m sure maybin will split time with almezaga early on, and ellsbury should be the full time cf in boston.
Posted: 12:51 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
You just up to to whatever price you’d be comfortable paying.. if we get Lowe for $13 M for 3 years… thats a decent deal… still overpaying him a little, but he’s a very good pitcher… if someone wants to pay him more, for a longer amount of time, that’s their problem
Posted: 12:52 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Brooks
Phill Phill – we own the right to trash the Muts… who choked at the end of the year and did not even make the playoffs for the second year in a row??
Yeah baby, CHOKED on it –
Dude, just bend over and take it like a (sniff) man! Your time may come, until then – bark bark bark you dawg! Cryin’ never gets you anywhere.
Posted: 12:53 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
yeeeeeeeeeea, okay
Posted: 12:54 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
There are a lot of categories..
H, R, HR, RBI, SB, Avg., ….total bases, OBP, or Slugging might be in there too I can’t remember
Posted: 12:54 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
you fags are cooooooooorny, come up with a new name then muts, that shit is older then your franchise’s overall losing record
Posted: 12:55 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
I’m also between Joakim Soria and Ricky Nolasco… Soria is without a doubt the best pitcher that nobody has ever heard of.. and he’s destined to be a Yankee in a few years
Posted: 12:56 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 joshua
brooks, they choked, ok, big deal…how about the phils not making the playoffs from the years 94-07? all those years, you didn’t choke, you were just complete garbage those years. at least the mets made the playoffs a few times in that time frame…but keep talking about not making the playoffs for two years, big deal. In 09 everyones records are 0-0 and what you did last season doesn’t matter.
Posted: 12:57 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
well, Elisbury is gonna get you H, R, HR and RBI’s not much, but he’s defintily gonna get your your SBs and AVG and OBP….though i like Maybins make up, i think him and Hanley and Uggs will be their only bat, and we dont know where he’s going to hit in that lineup yet. But all in all Maybin has a HUGE upside. But i will still keep Elisbury
Posted: 12:58 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
dude, i LOVE soria, i even think he’s better then KRod and im a Met fan…i had him in both my leagues last year, and he was straight money, DO NOT GET RID OF HIM….
Posted: 12:59 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Soria is good. id take him over nolasco. id take ellsbury over maybin
Posted: 12:59 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Corny.. good.
I’ve said before… What the HELL is a PHILLIE…. but also.. what the hell is a METROPOLITAN…
talk about terrible baseball team names… Mutts just has a nice ring to it
Posted: 01:00 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
phill, i know i’m going to be asking this question to you and other mets fans a lot this season, but does choking three years in a row give you the right to talk or make hefty predictions about your team? no. does winning a world championship give us the right? yes. here lies the difference between us and you.
Posted: 01:00 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
all philly team names suck besides possibly the eagles.
phllie- a baby horse or something
flyer- bird?
76er- someone from a year?
soul- intangible
kixx- two x’s in a row is never good
Posted: 01:03 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
thats fine dan…you know what, you guys won…congrats, talk away….im feeling to good to argue.
Posted: 01:04 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
But you can find closers on the scrap-heap… two years ago when I knew the Indians would be good, I selected Borowski late in the draft… he saved like 42 or 46..
I think Maybin is going to be a STAR in this league… but maybe not for 2-3 years
Ellsbury I think might just get hyped so much because its Boston.. and because he came to play in the 2007 postseason..
Posted: 01:05 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
Elz got busy last year too, he started to decline in the end though. Dude, Closers rulled my league last year. i took alot of my closers late
Posted: 01:07 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Also though, I thought the Reds would be really good and took Francisco Cordero… and he did ok, Saves-wise.. but wasn’t dominant at all
Jenks, Soria, Cordero was solid though.
I’m taking Carlos Ruiz this year, because one of his 3 HR might come in a crucial week… but seriously, his average will be .270 ish this season
Posted: 01:10 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Chase Mutley
Joshua, you know very well that what we did this year will still matter in ’09. I don’t care if the Phillies ranked dead last in MLB between 1983 and 2008, we’re World Champions. Something that the Mets haven’t done in 22 years yet your team and your fan base have the arrogance of world beaters. New York might be your first name but your last name certainly isn’t “Yankees.”
When K-Rod blows 8 saves, when David Wright comes up short, when Ryan Church spends 80 days on the DL, when Carlos Delgado doesn’t show up until July, and when you realize that you don’t have a left fielder, second baseman or a single player on your bench who can hit and once it sinks in the your current team is responsible for the most historic collapse in the history of baseball, maybe then you’ll have some humility.
Posted: 01:11 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 phill these nutz
i picked geovani soto as my last picked last year…what a pick
Posted: 01:14 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
That Endy Chavaz sure is fast though… oh wait, what…. damn, the Mariners.. ouch
Posted: 01:15 PM on December 31, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Soto was like the 6th catcher taken in my league laast year
Posted: 01:17 PM on December 31, 2008