The Starting Pitcher Market
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, December 15, 2008 02:30 PM | Comments: 113
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Last week at the Winter Meetings, the Phillies were said to have interest in Derek Lowe. Not much else reported. Currently the Phils remain interested in him.
So here’s what’s out there:
Tier 1
Derek Lowe
The only surefire top-tier pitcher remaining in the market, he seemed close to the Phillies, but they’ve said to have backed off lately. The Yankees have bowed out, and the Red Sox don’t seem highly interested. That means it’s the Phils and, probably, the Mets. For Lowe, measure by the AJ Burnett deal of 5Y/$82.5M.
Expected contract: Four years, $62 million
Expected return: 50-44, 3.79 ERA
Tier 2
Ben Sheets
Good enough to be a top-line pitcher, but injured enough not to be, Sheets remains a lower-risk option. The Rangers were heavier on him, and there’s a chance the Braves or Cardinals might jump in. Not much else.
Expected contract: Two years, $25 million
Expected return: 23-10, 3.51 ERA
Tier 3
Jamie Moyer
We know the drill — the Phils want Moyer back, and Moyer wants to come back. But the Phils won’t give Moyer more than $7M per season. He still remains a good two-year option, but with caution.
Expected contract: 2 years, $14 million
Expected return: 25-22, 4.48 ERA
Oliver Perez
It seems evident there’s no Phillie interest in Perez, who can either be very good or very bad. He’s a good No. 4 option, but wants a nice chunk of change.
Expected contract: 3 years, $36 million
Expected return: 35-20, 4.27 ERA
Brad Penny
Where’s the market? One bad year ripe with injuries, and suddenly teams are more akin to taking on the Braden Loopers of the world. Penny remains a high-reward pitcher.
Expected contract: 2 years, $15 million
Expected return: 28-16, 3.71 ERA
Tier 4
Randy Wolf
Our old friend is open to any destination, and could look fine in pinstripes again. Finally healthy, he performed well for Houston last season. Now he’s looking for a three-year pact, at best.
Expected contract: 2 years, $13 million
Expected return: 23-19, 4.36 ERA
Jon Garland
Garland might not translate well in Philadelphia, but he’s extremely durable and effective for a back-end piece. He’s been inquired about by a few teams: Saint Louis, Baltimore, the Mets.
Expected contract: 2 years, $13 million
Expected return: 27-22, 4.52 ERA
Braden Looper
A bit cheaper than the others, Looper hasn’t quite proven himself as a great starter, but he can work the back end. Baltimore has rumored to be talking to him.
Expected contract: 2 years, $10 million
Expected return: 23-20, 4.60 ERA
Paul Byrd
The 38-year-old former Phillie likely will get a two-year deal somewhere. He’s a reliable back-end option, and as he wants to pitch close to his home of Atlanta, he’ll be looking on the east coast. The Phils remain a small possibility.
Expected contract: 2 years, $10 million
Expected return: 22-22, 4.67 ERA
Other options
Names that might make sense: Tim Redding … Livan Hernandez … Odalis Perez … Mark Prior … Carl Pavano … Mark Mulder.
Names that aren’t coming to Philly: John Smoltz … Randy Johnson … Andy Pettitte.
Posts: 0 Steve
I would love to see the Phils make a play for Sheets or Penny. I think both are worth the risk considering the potential reward. I just hope that Rube can see it as well.
Posted: 02:53 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 I know Sal..
I couldn’t agree with you more Steve. Of everyone on that list, I’ve wanted 1 of those 2 all off-season.
Posted: 03:01 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Frank
I want them to get Lowe that would be very nica and it would be a groundball pitcher and that is what we need……….Not Penny to many longballs! Lowe and moyer than the rotation would be Hammels, Myers, Moyer, Lowe, Blanton (or flip-flop Myers and Lowe)
Posted: 03:08 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
2 years 25MM is a risk worth taking for someone as good as sheets. its more worthy of a risk than signing moyer or lowe…
penny is a good risk too considering he wont he cy young award once.
Posted: 03:09 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
i think garland is a nice arm too…always gives you 200 innings and in the NL should hover around the 3.90 era department…2/15 for penny would be a steal…if it comes down to mets or phils for lowe it will sting to lose him…if mets ink him we will NEED to retailiate with sheets,penny,or garland if not jamie moyer
Posted: 03:16 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Derek Lowe has an impeccable health record, Ben Sheets is a disaster who couldn’t even pitch in the playoffs last year. Lowe is older, and more expensive, but he’s the much safer bet.
What is Penny’s injury situation?
Posted: 03:19 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 NJ
Penny would get tattooed by LHB’s in particular in CBP with his lack of movement but worth a punt, I figure there must be a reason the Phils haven’t aggressively looked at Sheets since his value plumeted. I think the Phils looking away from Lowe is superficial, with the Yanks all but out and the Sox not having made an offer considering the Mets can’t afford him we look to be the best fit for him right now since he won’t get Burnett money.
Posted: 03:20 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
penny was injkured last year..
it does seem everyone backed off of lowe..boras’ initial valuation was a bluff and everyone knew it yet amaro and the yankees almost bit…now you come back with a low-ball offer to smoke out the real number that theyre going to settle for..
Posted: 03:23 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Geoff, from your lips to God’s ears. Maybe Boras overplayed his hand and didn’t think the Yankees interest in Burnett was real. Getting Lowe would be sweet.
Posted: 03:29 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Lowe!!
Posted: 03:29 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 TJ
Mark Prior anyone?
Posted: 03:43 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Frank
TJ is that a joke?
Posted: 03:47 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Lowe, Sheets, Penny, Moyer… those are my preferences, in that specific order
Posted: 03:52 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Jim
Mark Prior would be good as long as he agreed to a contract that had him pay back money to the club if he got hurt, like nothing guaranteed. Maybe he could put it together for a year. I would love to see Lowe though, that would leave you with: Hamels, Lowe, Myers, Blanton, and Happ/Carrasco/Eaton/Park/Kendrick…I’m Ok with that rotation b/c one of them will be a consistent 5th starter, they almost have to be.
Posted: 03:52 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnny Fire
Here’s the thin about Penny – he quit on his team last year. We don’t need a guy who’s going to pout and wine when things don’t go his way.
Posted: 03:54 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
im not antilowe, im jsut anti-overpaying by more than 1mm or two. weve seen what happens when you do that (eaton) and reach for somebody, assuming theyll pan out when you pay them too much money.
when will the yanikees ever learn? players are much less likely to be motivated WHEN YOU GUARANTEE THEM MORE THAN 100MM!!!! wheres the incentive?
some of these guys are not like any of us, where wed want to prove that we deserve that money after getting it..some of these guys just mail it in…giambi mailed it in for 3-5 years, same with carl pavano and some of these other players.
you play the contract/arbitration game and go by the cycle of salary escalation and valuation. you cant just keep forking it over..you go with the ebb and flow..its not like the nfl where a contract is fake..here, and in the nhl and nba youre stuck with the contract so it better be good..
Posted: 03:55 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
plus, couldnt boras see, even feel that the yankees were going to sign cc and burnett? sabathia was obvious, but i knew theyd get burnett, he seems like someone who would take the yankee cash and mail it in for 4 years after that..
Posted: 03:58 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Dan
reading between the lines, it seems like the phils are against taking any health risks with free agent pitchers, considering the lack of interest shown in burnett, sheets, penny, and prior. i wonder if that would make them stay away from randy wolf too. i’ve always been a wolf fan. he’d be a good option if lowe and moyer fall through. penny could really pay off for someone.
Posted: 04:12 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Phillies signed Moyer, Amaro and Chase just had a press conf.
Posted: 04:20 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Georgie
Apparently not getting Lowe, Amaro just said the young guys will be battling it out for 5th spot. Gotta go, late ffor appt.
Posted: 04:25 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 D
JAMIE IS BACK BABY!!!
Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Haap(Park, Carrasco, Kendrick)
Was good enough to win a WORLD SERIES wasn’t it?
Posted: 04:28 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
is that confirmed…moyer signing and 2 for 15mill?
Posted: 04:30 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 dan
the goal is to be better than last year. I still want lowe but it looks unlikely
Posted: 04:31 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
lowe wont happen if they signed moyer…hope mets dont ink him…i like the moyer signing if it did in fact happen…i think the opening day starting rotaion is better than last year…replacing eaton with blanton and whatever rookie is the 5th starter will be 1 year more experienced
Posted: 04:34 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Where did you guys see that?
Cheap a** GM!
Would give Ibanez (who I like) 3 years/30M… but wouldn’t make a legit offer to Sheets (2-3 years) or Lowe (3-4 years)
Lets just hope Hamels remains healthy… and Myers doesn’t go to the minors… that Blanton keeps pitching above par… and that Moyer doesn’t prove too old…
Oh well.
Posted: 04:37 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
….so much for pitching being the priority
Posted: 04:38 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
its a better rotation than last yaer with happ as the 5th man
last year: hamels – myers – moyer – kendrick – eaton (thats a HORRIBLE rotation because of the 4 and 5)
this year: hamels – myers – blanton – moyer – happ (or carrasco/park), thats a GOOD, solid rotation to start the year with. if moyer falls off then carrasco can step in or they can trade for someone (bedard, if healthy) at the deadline.
thats fine, id rather deal with your own prospects (happ, carrasco) than overpay for someone like derek lowe or risk 25mm on sheets (though id be ok with that): guys, look: if the wheels fall off one of those guys then you can either promote carrasco or trade for someone solid…
Why the rush to go BLOW mad money on derek lowe or sheets..
besides, if you still want to pursue lowe or sheets, the PHILLIES have all the leverage as they can say: ” hey, pal, the markets gone for you; so youd better accept this three year 36mm offer before it goes away.”
im leery of moyer holding up, but if he doesnt then you can make a move to correct it, no big deal.
now, go get a right-handed outfield bench, part time player to serve as a 4th guy and spell the starters, a cheap one, and then go sign another good relief pitcher and well call it even
Posted: 04:44 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
Talk about not improving during the offseason.
The Phils signed a 37-year old DH to play leftfield, a 35-year old to spot start and be the 12th man in the pen and a 46-year old to a 2 year deal at market value. The youth movement is upon us!
Posted: 04:48 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Jason
Phillies signed Jamie Moyer.
2 year deal
4:15 conference call
Posted: 04:49 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
C’mon guys, last year we expected Kendrick to be WAY better than what he turned out to be… so that “2008 starting rotation vs. 2009 starting rotation” comparison makes NO sense at all.
Eaton was never a fixed part of our 2008 rotation, and we all knew it. So please don’t say that our rotation will be better next season. Myers could suck, Blanton could suck, Moyer could suck, and any of them could end up OUT of the rotation by the end of April or May, just like Eaton or Kendrick.
The truth is that our rotation looks about as strong/weak as last year’s. Expect one or two guys to suck and then we’ll fill out those spots with whoever is hot at the moment. I see no improvement at all.
Posted: 04:52 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
manny they did make an offer to lowe…can blame phils for moving on and risk losing moyer. why does that make the gm cheap…he signed 2 good players in free agency in moyer and ibanez…sheets is so ricky and double the price of moyer…lowe would cost 20 million more than moyer and ibanez combined…no thanks
Posted: 04:53 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
I hope midseason you guys aren’t complaining about our pitching. We did NOTHING to improve it.
Posted: 04:53 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Since when Lowe is riskier than Moyer, Johnson?
Posted: 04:54 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
I agree Manny, how did the Phillies improve this offseason? The Mets got K-Rod, Putz and will either re-sign Oliver Perez or bring in Lowe. We were 3 games better than them last year, Vegas will make them 4 or 5 game favorites over us in 2009.
Posted: 04:57 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
All I’m saying is that we are going into 2009 with a rotation that looks good (as of now) but is still full with question marks. By getting someone like Lowe, we would’ve taken away a couple of question marks, and replace them with a low-risk guy you can expect to perform really well. Now everything’s up in the air, Phillies-style. Who can you really trust besides Hamels? No one.
Let’s just HOPE that everything falls into place… la la la
Posted: 05:00 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Geoff
Also, we need to dispel the myth that this is “the owners’” money. most of it comes from the fans in ticket sales, concessions, gear, etc. therefore, if you want them to go blow all this money, it has to come from somewhere, i.e., YOU, and us. you want derek lowe, mark teixeira, burnett, bradley, burrell and all these other big money free agents? ok: hot dogs: $7, beer: $9, cheesesteak $12, soft pretzel $7, soda $7, parking $17, tickets raised by 20% stadium-wide…
so i exaggerate, a bit, but the point is, yes they have the money but theyre going to make you pay for it anyway because thats how society works. the people pay the tab for everything, ultimately…id much rather amaro work within a nice budget (130mm is fine…but theyre already at like 120 mm with arb raises and ibanez, at least) and make the right decisions that lead to a championship. sort of like pat gillick just did..
Posted: 05:01 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Griffin
The rotation behind Hamels is so-so at best.
Myers-who knows what he’ll do
Moyer is 46 and got rocked twice in the playoffs
Blanton is a #4 who did pitch well in the postseason but was mediocre at best in the regular season
the #5 spot is a mystery
Hey, it worked last year so why bother trying to improve it!
Posted: 05:06 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
i didnt say lowe was risky…just expensive…20mil more than moyer and ibanez combined…i said sheets was risky since he will cost double what moyer costs
Posted: 05:08 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree Griffin… I hate that mentality, ESPECIALLY after the GM said that pitching was the priority. Utter BS.
Now lets all be happy because good-old-Moyer is back… and lets tune into ESPN a few hours from now to watch the Mets get Lowe!! Yipee
Posted: 05:39 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 RK
well Daily News is reporting Moyer signed for 2 years, guess there is not chance of Lowe just Moyer and Chan Ho Park
Posted: 05:40 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 psujoe
Am I the only one that thinks the Phils might go after Lowe and shop Myers? It would only be 3 mil extra for 2009.
Hamels, Lowe, Blanton, Myers, Happ/Park(yuck on Park)
Posted: 05:42 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Moyer has a stretch last year… of 14 straight outings without allowing more than 3 runs. That tells me he can still pitch.
I understand people being mad we aren’t adding Lowe to the rotation, we would definitely be better with him in there.
BUT.. I don’t understand how people are saying that we aren’t improved over last year?
Hamels-Myers-Moyer-Blanton-Happ/Park/Kendrick…. with a chance that Carrasco is the #5 at some point this season is MUCH better then we had last year. I’d like to have Burrell still here too, because I like him as a player, and he seems like a good guy.. but Ibanez is a very good baseball player too and people need to see what he can do before they bash him.
Posted: 05:42 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Frank
Me to Don i totaly agree……………But who said we are not going to get Lowe????????
Posted: 05:48 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Don M
Manny… I know you’re going to anyway, but seriously.. just JUMP RIGHT NOW…
you’re like a little girl with the constant complaining about them not doing the right things… Jamie Moyer was one of the biggest reasons the Phillies won the NL EAST last year.. and if they didn’t win the NL EAST.. they couldn’t have won the World Series.
No, he didn’t pitch very well in the playoffs, but he was among team MVP talks all the through the season.. Moyer, Lidge, Hamels, Howard were the names being mentioned.. so the fact that they kept him on might not be as impressive as adding an outside guy, but the fact that they are keeping someone as effective as Jamie Moyer for the rotation should make Phillies fans happy..
I hope the Mets get Lowe and pay a fortune for him… we’ve proved we can hit him… and tell me how good the Mets are when Putz, and K-Rod are both on the DL next year
Posted: 05:49 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 RK
I think it will be
Hamels
Myers
Moyer
Blanton
Happ
with Carrasco fine tunig his pitching waiting for a Myers or Moyer meltdown.
Posted: 05:51 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 sean
phils signed moyer today.
Posted: 05:55 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Johnson
manny you are the generic pissed off philly fan that has a problem with everything…you would of had a problem with any move im sure…this team is good and coming of a ws title so serious changes werent needed…they got a good bat and an arm in the bullpen that had 3.4 era last year…fine with me
Posted: 05:56 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Let’s see Don.
Before 2008 season we had:
Myers, Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick, Eaton
Before 2009 we have:
Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Happ/Kendrick/Park/Carrasco
Let’s compare our top 4 guys in the rotation because No.5 has been a question mark for the past seasons (and the next apparently) … Before 2008, we expected Kendrick and Myers to perform much, much better than what they actually did throughout the season. Back then, you could’ve easily argued the same thing that you’re saying now, because those two guys made our rotation LOOK pretty solid. Did it turn out that way? No.
Now you say that our 2009 rotation looks like an improvement when in reality we have no clue… Because 3 of the top 4 guys have big question marks right next to their names!! There’s absolutely no way to logically assume that we improved because we didn’t reinforce our rotation like we were supposed to.
Posted: 06:01 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Memphis
Signed up Moyer and an insurance policy should this be the year that Jamie runs out of gas. I like it. Still want Lowe, but not expecting it. If it’s between us and the Mets, I think we gotta get him.
Posted: 06:02 PM on December 15, 2008
Posts: 0 Manny
Just for the record, I’m very happy with the Ibanez deal…. so no, Johnson, I “don’t have a problem with everything.”
I simply expected an upgrade in our rotation I really can’t see it.
Posted: 06:03 PM on December 15, 2008