Could Werth Alter The Course Of His Peak Years?
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, January 15, 2009 10:42 AM | Comments: 22
Posts
At age 29, Jayson Werth is perfectly in the prime of his career – or at least that what age indicates. Normally, hitters start their prime around age 25, maxing near age 27 or 28, ending somewhere around age 32. Of course, that’s not always the case, but statistical data suggests that hitters will usually find their best success in the very late 20s.
2008, of course, was Werth’s best season yet:
134 G / 482 PA / .273 AVG / .363 OBP / .498 SLG / 24 HR / 67 RBI / 20 SB
In 2007, under limited time, Werth’s average was higher, as he saw a greater percentage of left-handed pitching, which he can rake. Against lefties in 2008, Werth hit .303 with 16 HR – two-thirds of his total. Against righties, however, he hit .255. If Werth should have a better hitting season in 2009, it will be because he’ll attack righties better.
But where does he go wrong against righties?
Statistics show there’s nothing he doesn’t do against righties that is different than against lefties. He strikes out 25 percent of the time against both sides. So the other three of four times, he’s merely getting a hit at a slower rate against righties. Watching him on film, I find that Werth tries to pull a lot, and against right-handed throwing, he’s just a little late pulling the ball, which either induces a shallow pop, or a weak opposite-field ground ball.
When Werth is successful against righties, it’s a base hit up the middle, meaning he’s late, but just barely. His eight home runs against righites shows he’s only been exactly right 0.25 percent of the time, not nearly enough to justify continuous pulling of the ball.
The answer, then, is to shorten up the swing, lock in to a spot a bit higher than the waist, and start striking balls into left-center field. A line drive is an honest hit; a ground ball could potentially be an infield single, since Werth can speed down the line.
What does this mean for his 2009 total? It might mean less home runs, which runs counter to peak trends. But it would make a more dangerous hitter in regards to average, which could supplant him into the three-hole, ahead of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. That move itself could bring rewards for the Phillies, as Utley is starting to really pop the ball out of the park.
A 2009 line that resembles this – .305 AVG / .402 OBP / .468 SLG / 21 HR / 82 RBI / 28 SB – would be very welcome in the Phillies lineup, and would show Werth’s hitting isn’t just about peak ages, but about smart adjustments.
Posts: 0 Don M
With more playing time this season, I’d assume his power-numbers (HR in particular) would be around that 25+ mark, but if he hits .300 with 20+ HR, 75+ RBIs, and 20+ SBs….. then we’ve got a hell of a player on our hands
Posted: 10:57 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Sign him to a contract extension while hes still affordable…hed get a MONSTER contract in free agency with a year like that next season..
Posted: 11:01 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Nice “fantasy” numbers for 2009. Until he is able to hit righthanded pitchers consistenly for a decent BA, it’s wishful thinking.
Posted: 11:25 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
There are certainly no guarantees. I think that Werth is a great player but he has to mature in order to reach his peak (which I think is far beyond those numbers). He has good power, speed and can reach balls anywhere in the zone but he lacks focus and is very impatient; he makes silly baserunning errors and swings at a lot of bad pitches. My biggest concern is that he seems to be content with slapping at pitches out of the zone rather than waiting for a good one. Down the line, he could have a problem reaching those pitches (as he becomes less agile); he’s going to need to refine his approach at the plate in order to put up the kind of numbers that you suggest. He’ll probably hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases and belt 60 RBI’s but that .300 mark is going to be tough for him to reach.
Posted: 11:28 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 JZ
I think Werth was 3rd in MLB with pitches per plate appearance. I think that would contradict the point you make about him being impatient.
Posted: 11:50 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
He is patient in at bats, looking for the right pitch, but Chuck is right in saying he makes foolish mistakes. He does try to play over himself sometimes, which explains his tendency to pull a lot.
Posted: 11:57 AM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Eb
Tim, I agree with your analysis. I brought this up in a post during the season, but it seems he really struggles with fast balls up in the zone.
However I think Werth earned an extension, even though Vic and Hammels should be the priority
Posted: 12:00 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
The “bad pitches” are usually fastballs up in the zone (the pitch that most hitters can’t get to) which is why Roger Clemens was so good..
his “silly baserunning errors” happened in the playoffs, outside of those pickoffs, I think he’s a great baserunner, aggressive and smart at the same time.. you don’t often see him get thrown out.
and very impatient must be a joke.. he’s probably the best leadoff hitter on the team, but because of his power, you want him hitting somewhere like 2,3,5, or 6
Posted: 12:02 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Werth should be the priority because you look at the season he had last year.. most of his numbers posted as a platoon player, you look at the fact that those numbers have a good chance of increasing with regular playing time as a starter… and think about how if he was a Free Agent after last season… teams would have been falling over one another to get him.
If he reaches the Free Agent market, like he would after this coming season… teams will outbid the Phillies for him. Hamels and Victorino are under team control, so signing them to extensions simply means that you pay them more than you need to in the coming years..
Have they earned it, yea probably.. but its not a NEED the way keeping Werth is
Posted: 12:09 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Brett
Werth is, aside from Utley, aruguably the most complete player on the team. He’s a patient batter who can hit for power. He has great speed and is usually an excellent baserunner, and he’s an above average fielder. While I don’t think he’s going to bat .300 this year, I can definitely see him in the .280s at least. Werth is my favorite Phillie, and deserves an extension, if only to give me a couple extra years to wear my new Werth jersey.
Posted: 12:17 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Richie
To be honest, I have a real concern with the Utley, Howard, Ibanez possibility in late game situations (L,L,L) I’d really like to see Werth in the five hole instead of the three. I do see Werth earning an everyday job though, his fielding which isn’t talked about too much in this section is soo underrated. He has great range and a shady hose!!
Posted: 12:31 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Wilson
A little off topic….
But Jayson Stark has an interesting article on the arbitration cyclone that’s about to hit. Can’t say it sounds overly optimistic for the Phils….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3834458
Posted: 12:36 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I think Utley is back a #3 when he returns.. Howard #4, Werth #5, Ibanez #6..
They won’t go L, L, L unless they are playing a lights-out RHP, with a team that doesn’t have LHP in the pen.. Ibanez and Werth are going to open some eyes this year… We have a VERY GOOD outfield
Posted: 12:37 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
yet another interesting article by Jayson Stark.. Thanks Wilson!
Posted: 12:43 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Werth is very complete and very much a leadoff-type hitter, but the one difference is that he pulls the ball a lot. If he were patient in his swing (which was my point) he’d hit more straight lines and tough grounders, the kinds of hits upon which leadoff men thrive.
Posted: 01:08 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree with Don M in that signing Werth NOW is a very high priority… we don’t want to lose him to free agency.
Plus, he’s a great No.2, 3, 5 or 6… it’s great to have that flexibility in our lefty lineup.
Posted: 01:17 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
What a great article by Stark, great ananymous GM quote “That team (Phillies) is about to go through a minefield.”
It basically hints that they have to trade one or both of howard or hamels and that the longer they wait to make that decision the worse off it will be. The conclusion is that you have to keep Hamels and sign him to an extension now, EVEN if it only buys out his arb years and you can work from there later. The longer it takes them to realize that the more expensive, hostile, and less receptive to an extension hamels will get.
basically with howard, hes gone in 2 years and maybe even before that because theyve basically already burned their bridges with the phillies by asking for A-Rod money. I dont know what you could get for him now, but waiting a year to trade him might not be a bad idea. Id shoot for getting at least one more year out of howard this year and exploring a trade market at the winter meetings (suitors: angels, red sox).
the idea of trading hamels is absurd thoguh. they will NOT do that. they will be forced to sign him to an extension beyond 3 years because hes the best pitcher theyve had come up since steve carlton.
Posted: 01:21 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
signign werth and vic are mandatory as well. theyre both 28 and you cant let that talent walk away…
Posted: 01:22 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
And given that we didn’t spend a lot of money in the FA market this offseason, the organization must sign at least Werth and Victorino for good.
Posted: 01:57 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
yeah thats pretty much mandatory…id rather see those two guys locked up than have seen them blow mad money on derek lowe for 4 years…i prefer pitching but its rare to lock up two thirds of yoru outfield at age 28 so when you get that chance its worth it to lock them up for 3-4 years…
Posted: 02:11 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
but…now they need to go and do it
Posted: 02:12 PM on January 15, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I’m glad that everyone was able to make sense of the point that I was trying to make. It’s really not impatience; he does try too hard at times which manifests itself as a lack of focus. The guy can rake against lefties… his impatient swings against right handed pitchers are what is killing him; how many times have you seen him reach out to foul off a breaking ball out of the zone rather than waiting for a better pitch? It’s great that he has that kind of reach and he’s making the pitcher work but that type of swing really throws off his timing (probably why he can’t catch up with the high heat). 119 k’s and only 418 AB’s)… those numbers are Ryan Howard numbers.
Posted: 04:10 PM on January 15, 2009