Phillies Nation

Hamels will get $5 M this season, and if he makes it through this season healthy and productive as a staff ACE.. then he’ll get that 5 year deal… which would buy out the first 2 years of his Free Agent stauts.. and he would be 31 and the end of it?

Its not worth offering him a contract UNLESS you also get a year or two of his Free Agent years. No point in just overpaying him through his arbitration years. That would be a 5 or 6 year deal right now, which the Phillies both A.) don’t like to do, and B.) don’t need to do.. so don’t get your hopes up guys, lets be surprised if it happens, instead of let-down if it doesn’t

I agree, Don. I don’t think we’ll get Hamels long-term just yet… I think that will happen after the 2009 season, cause there’s no point in offering him a contract unless we also get at least 1 or 2 of his free agent years. I’d like to see him get one, but right now I think we need to go after Werth and Madson because they are very close to free agency, so it makes sense… especially in the middle of a recession.

Victorino should also be a priority. Then, Hamels.

I agree with Don M, as well. ALso I agree we should ink Victorino to a multi-year deal and go to arbitration with Howard, who I believe is a future Hall of Famer, but let’s see if his batting average increases. The Phils are better off paying now for their stars than later.

They are going to give Hamels a fair deal in arbitration…. and chances are they would come to an agreement before a hearing would take place anyway.

With Howard.. if you read Jayson Stark’s article… you’d see that he and his family consider him to be the world’s greatest player, and he should be paid accordingly. Saying something along the lines of: nobody has accomplished what he has in 3 years, so there is no limit to how much he should earn because of that, etc..
And Howard has never been close to accepting the offer that the Phillies gave him.

I asked this question before, but:
If Free Agent contracts come back down to Earth… shouldn’t the Arbitration figures awarded do the same??

Also.. NOT SIGNING HAMELS TO A LONG-TERM DEAL RIGHT NOW.. is in no way considered “playing hardball with him”… this is what happens in baseball. this is the process that takes place.. The ONLY way that the Phillies should sign him long-term is if that contract buys out the first few years of his FA … and since it would take 6 year contract to do that right now, its not worth it.. if you wait until next year you might have to pay more per year.. but lets see him stay healthy next season after throwing 4,000 innings last year.

With the $5 M he’ll get this season, he should be set for life… the dude throws baseballs as his job, lets not feel sorry for him not making $20 M per season yet

Good Stuff, you have to figure Myers and Blanton will come off the books after this year. Let’s wait till next year for Hamels. I understand the notion of “what are we without Hamels?” But, really what are we without Werth and Vic? On defense alone these two are rock solid, and then get into what Vic did in the playoffs….they are our #1 priority!!

The other thing to back up an arguement AGAINST signing Hamels long-term RIGHT NOW.. is look at Fausto Carmona on the Indians. People wanted the Phillies to do exactly what the Indians did.. buy him out of Arb. years and I think they got a few of his FA years too..

after a GREAT 2007 season, 19 WINS, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP….

It didn’t go so great this year, he had about a 2.50 – 3.00 ERA, got hurt and missed two months.. came back and got SHELLED for the last 3 months of the season.. seeing his ERA at 5.44 to end the year

If he never gets back to that CY YOUNG season, he’s a HORRIBLE contract.. but those are the chances you take.. why take that chance with Cole right now when you don’t need to? He’ll be handsomely rewarded for great seasons… but not before they happen

I think they offered him $700,000 in 2007 (he wanted, and got $900,000) last year they offered him $7,000,000… he wanted, and got $10,000,000…

Again, “I think” started that post.

I not only have no problem with him going to arbitration this year, I almost want him to, and can’t wait to get some significant prospects for him next winter…even if we were to repeat…the championship couldn’t have come at a better time. Bye Ryan..another perfect example of why Utley is the consummate professional..the team comes first, if we invest all that money in one player we wont have anymore to make the team better, Howard knows that and doesn’t care..he is “me,me,me” Beat it Howard! See Ya!

I know…howards demands are SO arrogant. I almost wish they could trade him right now and be rid of this problem, but i understand that its smarter to get at least another years worth of value out of him and try and wait until theres a huge market for him. the yankees are no longer really in the mix for him…well with them you never really know though. I also value like NONE of their prospects, i think most of them are overrated. id take joba and make him setup man, phil hughes is overrated, and joba alone isnt enough to get this done in my opinion because hes NOT a starter..

Anybody have educated guesses on what these players might get?

Hamels-5 mil
Howard-12.5 mil
Werth-2.5 mil
Vic-2.5mil
Blanton-3.5 mil
Dobbs-2mil
madson-2.5mil

i actually think theyre tryng to trade howard but havent been able to get an offer they like..

Everyone here seems to think that going to arbitration is a terrible thing… that’s not really the case. You certainly want to avoid letting your players get to free-agency but the arbitration system is a way for teams to minimize their risk. Fausto Carmona is a great example. If he is agreeable, Hamels might get a one-year contract but I would expect that that’s about it for now (we have him until 2012). You need to consider signing Werth this year (he’ll be eligible for FA next year)… if you think that he’s the answer, go ahead and sign him for 3 or 4 more years. Should consider signing Vic LT, too because we don’t have any backup plans and he’s only under control for 2 more seasons.

I don’t blame Howard for wanting a big contract. He’s a phenomenal hitter in his prime, he deserves a big contract. If the Phils had seen his potential, brought him up while he was still raw, and really jumped on signing him before he blew up they might have had a chance at him. The reality now is that he’ll go where the money is.

Vic, Hamels, and Werth are all worth trying to keep for the long term. Maybe watch Hamels because injury is always a risk and he’s already spent a fair amount of time on the DL. Still, he’s an ace and there’s no one else to fill the number 1 spot in the Phils lineup.

It’s going to be interesting to see if the arbitration process takes the current economic conditions into account… aside from a few eyebrow raising offseason deals (CC, Tex, Burnett), the FA market has been stymied. This might be a good year for arbitration players but next year might not be so good… next year might be a good year to throw LT deals at some of these guys. I have a feeling that they’re willing to let Werth go. I mean, something has got to give and when you look at what we have on the farm, you would expect that one of either Taylor, Mayberry or Brown will be ready within the next couple of years. Ibanez is here for three years, none of them are CF prospects so Werth seems to be the odd man out.

So there best offer to Howard is what Utely got? Chase Utley signed below market value imo(what he could have got as a free agent) you can’t expect Ryan Howard to do that. How many MVPs does Chase Utley have? Not to pit Howard versus Utley because they are both phenomenal but those sorts of thing matter. If the highest amount the Phillies have ever offered Howard is what Utley got no wonder they are miles apart. It has nothing to do with arrogance and everything to do with some people insisting on getting market value or in other words what they feel they are worth. Mark Texiera got 20+ mil per and he has a lower career OPS then Howard does. You can’t blame Howard. I am not saying blame the Phillies if they decide market value is too much for Howard so be it but I wont be calling Howard the villian for turning down salary offers far less then other comparable players got.

I agree with Kevin. The Phillies front office will probably offer UNDER the “fair market value” estimate for Howard and again LOSE in arbitration. The arbitrator will rule in Howard’s favor and justifiably reward him his desired salary for a great season (MLB leader in HRs & RBIs). Just think, the Phillies could have save greater cost now and in the future had they sign Howard LAST year to a multi-year contract.