Key To Starting Pitching Remains Durbin
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, January 12, 2009 01:19 PM | Comments: 24
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We were happy last season with the 6 IP, 2-3 ER performances the pitchers behind Cole Hamels were serving up. Sure, with enough offense, these blue-plate specials seemed like Le Bec Fin-quality meals. Joe Blanton with an ERA of 4.50? C’est magnifique! Jamie Moyer winding through a five- to six-inning outing? Delicioso!
But the meals might start to taste sour next season. Especially if the Phillies bullpen doesn’t reach its very high 2008 standards. Consider:
The 2008 group of Brad Lidge, JC Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Co. finished with a 3.22 ERA, second in the majors.
The 2007 group of Brett Myers, Tom Gordon, JC Romero, Ryan Madson, Antonio Alfonseca and Co. finished with a 4.50 ERA, 24th in the majors.
We know Lidge is very good. And while Romero will miss 50 games, he’s proven to be a reliable setup man. Madson has also desrved his title. But Durbin is the wild card. How a man whose season-best ERA was a 4.72 can dip down to an ERA under 3.00 so quickly is very curious. Sure, he pitched well, and we saw that during 2008. But something tells me he won’t exactly replicate his 2008 performance.
This is even more certain with Romero’s absence. Durbin might be relied upon to take some later innings, which wouldn’t be a good idea. In 2008, opponents hit .319 against Durbin in the eighth inning, and .313 in the all-too-important “late and close” situation. We all saw what happened when he pitched in the postseason (a couple shaky outings against the Dodgers and very little time against Tampa Bay). It seems that Durbin is at his best as a total middle reliever pitching in medium-leverage situations, and anything more could prove futile.
Middle relief was the key to the Phils pitching success in 2008. It’s what they sorely lacked in 2007, what kept them from winning certain games and from holding the close ones. Durbin was the reason for this surge in middle relief. Hopefully the Phils won’t need to take him out of the role, because if they do, those starting pitching numbers won’t taste so fine.
















Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats why you need another guy in there, especially with Romero gone, to take the load off of Durbin. Durbin was very shaky in the postseason and at the end of the season…and with romero out for several games the phillies really need to get another solid relief arm in that bullpen. joe beimel is a local philly native, maybe hed be a good fit. still think the phillies could use another guy to compete for the 5th starter job. that way the guys that lose out for that job and still make the roster will at the very least be good depth additions to the bullpen. if happ and park lose out to someone else, then the bullpen is that much better, but if happ beats out everyone else then that means hes pitching well and there are no worries.
Posted: 01:27 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
There’s a thought that Gary Majewski can fill the role, but he hasn’t pitched in high-pressure situations lately. I still think a Russ Springer type pitcher would fit perfectly for the seventh and such.
Posted: 01:48 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah Springer would be nice. Would probably accept a one year deal. I dont think hell cost a draft pick either.
Posted: 02:16 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
The reasons above are exactly why Park, and Majewski were GREAT singings…. EVERY arm that you add to your roster is a good move, because sometimes they work out and sometimes they don’t..
But to have the competition in Spring Training, and to have lots of options to choose from is a great thing for the team.. people were all bent out of shape about Park saying the Phillies mentioned he had a chance to be a starter..
If he goes out and pitches well enough to earn the job, that’s a good thing.. chances are that he, and Happ will both be decent.. they’ll want Happ to stay a starter and Park to join the bullpen… but IF things don’t go according to plan, its nice to have options.
Posted: 02:20 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Russ Springer’s carries to high a price, I expect Park and Durbin to split to bulk of middle relief innings and some set-up duty and close games and for the first 1/3 of the season the Phils just need a body in the pen to soak up some innings and not look too bad along side Condrey. I’d like to see that guy be a lefty to take the role vacated by Eyre likely pitching Romero’s innings untill his return and a cheap veteran option like Mercker looks good. We don’t need another set-up guy or high-price bullpen arm, just a body until the already upgraded pen returns to full strength.
Posted: 02:28 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 PhillyGirlinMichigan
I think Durbin’s 8th innings stats don’t look so great because they were primarily later in the season after he wore down. Perhaps if he starts out in more of a one-inning 7th/8th inning role to begin with, he’ll show better #’s given it’ll be his second year of pure relief work (and he’ll hopefully have a fresher arm). At least that’s a positive way of looking at it rather than just focusing on his past ERA’s from years back in a starting role.
As for Park, he will probably make a good spot starter/LR guy. Luckily the Phils didn’t need spot starters often in 2008, and when they did, Happ stepped up and did a good job. I’m hoping Happ takes the 5th in 2009, however.
Is no one concerned about Madson? If he doesn’t fufill the SU role everyone just assumes he will, then Durbin suceeding or a trade will be very necessary. There’s depth, but are any of these guys that great? Is it because Madson’s a FA next year so we’re all sure he’ll show his Sept ’08 lights out form for all of 2009 that no-one questions his new role?
BTW – what ever happened to JD Durbin? Was he released or is he still in the system?
Posted: 02:51 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats correct phillygirl…a lot of ifs in there, thats why one more quality reliver is needed. jsut one. dont have to go crazy and sign someone really expensive or anything. just one more solid guy should do it.
Posted: 03:15 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
On the surface, we have good depth (plenty of serviceable MLB ready relievers)… we’ll need to get through the first 50 with no injuries and that means we’ll have to be very careful with our relievers and give extra innings to some of our stopgap guys. So guys like Durbin, Majewskis, Bastardo (possibly), Condrey and Eyre become very important pieces in the early part of the season. We’ll see them used in situations that we might not feel comfortable… that means we’ll see more excitement in the 6th and 7th innings.
Posted: 03:17 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Justin
I can still see him as a 6th or 7th inning guy with Eyre, and Madson pitching the later innings obviously madson would pitch the 8th as primary setup man to Lidge with Romero out for 50 games.
Posted: 03:28 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
chuck p…it also means the starters need to amp it up this year. someone like blanton and happ who last year would give you 5-6 inning will now be relied upon to give you 6-7 innings. brett myers needs todo more and give you 6-7 every time as well, and they need to be numebr 2 quality innings too…i hope they can do all those things. anotehr bullpen arm and a starter to compete with happ (legitimately, nto just some low-level reclamation project) for his spot. make him really earn it to briung the best out of both of them.
Posted: 03:33 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Rather than hoping that Chad Durbin stays in shape for 2009, I’m praying Jamie Moyer can at least go 5 full innings this year and next.
Posted: 03:57 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
There’s so many viable names from Mercker to Beimel to Odalis Perez from the left side but once Romero’s suspension is over outside of Happ I can’t see anyone on the pitching staff that still has minor leage options. Amaro has added more than enough to compete for the starting rotation so if another pitchers being added it needs to be someone who’s not going to take innings away from the established which is how we ended up with Eyre in the first place, needs to be someone servicable in the short-term who won’t create a roster-jam on Romero’s return.
I’d expect the rumors of a replacement for Romero are exaggerated, makes no sense to add more than a stop-gap veteran reliver (preferably a lety) on a minor-league deal. Wouldn’t mind seeing Jnr add a veteran starter to a minor-league deal too with the multitude of them camping on the scrap-heap.
Posted: 04:10 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
There are many veteran starters on the ‘heap this year. last years scrap starter didnt even make a contribution (benson), so this year ai hope they get someone that can contribute in some way. odalis perez is floating around out there…
Posted: 04:13 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 PhillyGirlinMichigan
Along w/Bastardo, Yorman Bazardo (sp?) is another possiblity for middle relief. He showed some good stuff in 2007 for the Tigers but had a family death at the beginning of 2008 and never seemed to recover. Perhaps a fresh start is what he needs.
I also agree that we need our starters to go further into games this year. Last year we knew we’d probably see Condrey or Durbin every time Moyer or Kendrick pitch….ughh..and Eaton!
Posted: 04:27 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I think that we need to be very careful… we can’t push guys harder to get extra innings if that means that we’re going to be increasing the risk of an injury. Would I like to see Blanton/Happ go 6-7 consistently? Absolutely but this is not a sprint. If we can get through the first half of this season within striking distance, I think that we’ll have a great shot (and not just because the Mets have made a name for themselves as choke artists in September). Romero’s return will reviatlize this team and someone else pointed out that he was out of gas late last season. He’ll be strong and well rested and we’ll have a clear understanding of what we need at the AS break… in my opinion, the keys this year will be our focus in April/May and the overally production of Werth, Myers, Feliz/Dobbs and Durbin. I think that the Utley/Feliz injuries could be a blessing; that could help the rest of the team come out of the blocks hard. It’s going to give some guys the opportunity to prove themselves and it might help our veterans come together. I think we are in good shape but time will tell.
Posted: 04:37 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats the reason teh starters need to go farther into games: its not a sprtint. relievers are less durable than starters by their very nature. so overwork can really hurt them. there are some fragile starters too, but joe blanton is supposed to go 7 innings a pop, so are myers and hamels. thats their job as the young headliners of the rotation. moyer can go 5-6 and im ok with that at his age. its ok to see some of those ghuys go 6 in the playoffs when everything is in perspective. but durng a long season you need your starters to log significant innings. quite frankly, scott eyres acquisition really saved this bullpen from overwork at times, couples with the emergence of ryan madson as the setup man.
anyways, if overwork is your concern, how badly will it hurt to put another few bodies in teh mix in teh starting/bullpen sets to add competition and depth? depth is good especially since last year everything magically went strangely well with this rotation…
Posted: 04:51 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
btw, yorman bazardo is a relief pitcher. he could be a good steal for this bullpen later int eh year. he was once a fairly well touted prospect.
Posted: 04:53 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Myers and Blanton need to give innings but there’s nothing to suggset they can’t or won’t, especially Blanton as it’s his trademark. We know were going to need some middle relief when Moyer pitches but he gives stability and hopefully Happ will provide similar stability.
This is in some way a rare opportunity presented, the Phils can really work someone early without worrying about him later in the year with JC Romero being one of the best mid-season acquisition any team will have this year. Too good a name though could really upset the set-up of the bullpen and leave someone like Park who could be very useful rusty and ineffective.
Posted: 05:17 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kennedy
I’ve honestly never been so confident about the Phils going into a season. Besides the Cubs, nobody with any offense in the NL is even close to us in pitching. the Mutts are a starter away from being in competition, and the best team out west looks like the offensively disinclined Giants. The great thing about having Carrasco, Happ, and Kendrick competing for that 5th starting spot is that as soon as somebody starts nonperforming, there are multiple guys ready to come take their job. Once Utley and Romero get back, this team should roll to a pennant with ease.
Posted: 06:19 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 christopher
i’m not worried about durbin, as long as they use him in moderation i see him having another very good season.
Posted: 06:35 PM on January 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Actually, I think once the mets sign oliver perez and the braves sign derek lowe those two rotations will be very competetive. the phillies would still have the edge over the mets, but a braves rotation of lowe jurrgens vazquez kawakami and with hudson returning before the all star break i really think that rotation rivals our own. i think its rather delusional to ignore the moves that the braves have made to improve their rotation. jair juurgens owned the phillies a few times last season and hell only get better.
the reality is that if our bullpen isnt as good as it was last year, our starting rotation suddenly isnt really as good as you think it is. blanton, myers, moyer, happ/5th starters were all baied out after 5-6 innings by this bullpen. if the bullpen does not repeat this performance then its all on the 2-5 starters to log more innings or else the rotation will regress.
i recommend bringing in another starting pitcher or another bullpen arm or both ro really bolster this staff. they have to without romero. look, i dont think they need to go out and spend all kinds of money and sign all kinds of people, but sitting back and saying they dont even need to bring in just simply reenforcements to cover for romero or to compete for the 5th starter spot is just being too complacent. its ok if they have a logjam in their bullpen when romero comes back, in fact, i want that to be the case. it means theyre in great shape and they then have more assets with which to improve whatever other areas of the squad may need help midway through the season.
so, at the very least, id like to see them sign joe beimel or russ springer, and odalis perez. that should all be really cheap, affordable options who at the very least can come in and log innings for this staff. perez can compete for the 5th starter spot. also….the longer ben sheets lingers out there the more his price and year commitment will come down…once the desperate mets, braves and angels make their moves, there will be a paucity of spots left for some quality starters out there and the phillies can grab one of them like garland or sheets for cheap. thats a possibility at this stage because the prices after lowe and oliver perez are going to go way down.
i recommend a few astute bargain moves, like some of those by the red sox, would plug some holes in this squad and bolster a pithcing sraff that could use a few fresh arms in there to make it dominant once more.
Posted: 02:59 AM on January 13, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
by that i mean the phillies will have the edge over the mets and braves rotations still but those two teams will be winning a lot more games next year with their rotations, the mets not so much as the braves. i really wouldnt be so quick to ignore that braves squad…
Posted: 03:01 AM on January 13, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
The edge the Phillies have throughout the pitching staff is stability, the additions have been to improve upon and not fill holes. I’d favour the Braves rotation over the Mets purely down to Braves history of being a strong pitching team when healthy, as for the Mets it’s the same story and the problems haven’t gone away it’s just different names that will be the scapegoats or heroes.
Remember Springers a type A FA. Mercker looks the best fit in the short-term, he’s a veteran who had a very good year last year and he’s down in the pecking order with so many decent relievers still available.
Posted: 09:18 AM on January 13, 2009
Posts: 0 From Section 113
I am really skeptical fo Durbin pitching well again. He has never pitched like he did last yr. He could be a 1 yr wonder reliever. Hopefully Park can assume his spot. Because I think Durbin will be at the bottom of this bullpen, if on this team at all, come September.
Posted: 03:50 PM on January 13, 2009