Safe Approach Might Just Work
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Sun, January 04, 2009 03:43 PM | Comments: 19
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While a herd of players remains unsigned league-wide, the Phillies have already inked a few players during this offseason. The three notable signings, of course, are Raul Ibanez (3Y/$31.5M), Jamie Moyer (2Y/$13M), Chan Ho Park (1Y/$2.5M) and Scott Eyre (1Y/$2M). They’ve committed $17.5 million in 2009 money to these four players. Considering I anticipated the Phillies having about $20 million in free agent money to spend, there’s room for probably another low-level signing.
Compare this group of four to the group I outlined in my offseason blueprint (Milton Bradley, Moyer, Odalis Perez, Eyre) and it’s not too far off, but a bit safer.
No-Risk Raul
A glance at Ibanez’s numbers show he’s the safety school of MLB free agents. He has amassed 480 at bats every season since 2002, holding a very consistent average around .290 with an even more consistent on-base percentage of .350 and slugging percentage of around .475. Twenty home runs? Ninety runs batted in? I’m all in. Compare those numbers to Pat Burrell’s somewhat-as-consistent numbers of .260, .370, .490, 30 and 90, and the Phils basically did what they wanted to do: Acquire a left fielder who can hit better, but with less power, for about the same price. That last part, of course, is still undetermined. If Burrell signs for less than $10M per season, will the Phillies look stupid? Slightly, yes, but only to sacrifice risk.
The risk, of course, was losing out on their priority (higher average, consistency). As much as I wanted Bradley, nobody could be even remotely certain he’d remain healthy and obedient. Juan Rivera’s flash-in-pan potential is very high. Rocco Baldelli, as well. Forget the Corey Pattersons of the world — it was evident Ruben Amaro Jr. wanted an everyday force in the outfield, considering Geoff Jenkins didn’t quite work out the way they expected, and you can never be safe with the broken history of Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino.
With that in mind, Ibanez wasn’t a bad pickup. On the surface, it’s a lateral move for a team that just won the world championship. That’s a good thing. But again, it is a safe move.
Pitching Plays
Moyer and Park are also safe moves. Instead of putting loads of money on Derek Lowe or loads of risk on Brad Penny, the Phils took the stable Moyer and well-defined Park. Amaro knows they can plug Moyer into the middle of the rotation, and for a while at least, he’ll perform amicably. And Amaro knows Park could be the No. 5 starter, or the No. 7 guy in the bullpen, and it might work. Or it might not. But it’s not the end of the world. Safe, safe, safe.
Lowe, of course, is like Ibanez in his recent consistency, but the money he demands is nowhere near the chump change they’re turning for left field. Lowe rejected a Mets offer of $12M per season, and there’s rumblings the Phils might make another offer. (Yes, the Phils have always been interested. Don’t think they haven’t.) But will the Phils offer Lowe his desired $16M per season? Phillie history says no, and judging by the safe moves the Phils have made so far this offseason, it doesn’t look as if the Phils will extend that sort of offer to Lowe.
What will Lowe get? I’m thinking $15 million per season, very possibly from the Mets, or maybe from the Red Sox. If the Mets acquire Lowe, he’ll be added to an offseason stockpile that includes Francisco Rodriguez and JJ Putz, necessary acquisitons for New York. The Phils, meanwhile, had no necessary acquisitions, but they had goals, they met those goals, and will very probably work with what they have.
Safe Is Good?
Is the safe approach wrong? Hard to say. But the safe approach will likely open more windows for the current Phils awaiting bonuses or extensions, which to me, is much higher of a priority. I’d rather secure Cole Hamels for five seasons and gamble with Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Drabek, than gamble with Lowe for three or four years. What about having both? Okay, but that makes securing Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth more difficult. And we’re back to square one.
We know the Phils don’t have bottomless pockets. Heck, the Yankees don’t even have bottomless pockets. What New York is doing, however, is risking their farm system and their ability to make moves during the season. And the farm system and midseason deals are the things that usually count most. Sure, the Phils won by acquiring Brad Lidge, but they couldn’t do that without Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo. And they couldn’t get Joe Blanton and Matt Stairs without Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman, Matt Spencer and Fabio Castro. And they couldn’t win the whole thing without their homegrown talent — maybe the best collection of homegrown talent in baseball.
So while the Phils are playing it safe on the free agent level, they haven’t been afraid to throw in their chips on their homegrown talent. They’ve drafted for talent, and while most times the talent doesn’t work, they also got Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Ryan Madson, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell by focusing on the farm. Last time I checked, that philosophy worked.
Posts: 0 Geoff
If they can afford to sign Lowe AND sign victorino and werth and hamels and possibly blanton to extension, then im all for it. but id err on the side of signing those two outfielders to extensions and bringing up talent like carrasco and maybe drabek if hes healthy when the time is right, and signing hamels when the time is right (spring training – midseason is when i think hell get his contract), and if blanton offers you a discount then hed be a valuable piece in the 3rd-4th slot in the rotation.
who wouldnt want lowe? but 16mm a year…no. 3 years…no. two years, 30 mm with a vesting option for a 3rd at like 16-17mm (if he makes X amount of starts – like 27-30 out of 35-37 they normally get, something like that).
Posted: 04:01 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
I hate the phrase playing safe. What about the baseball phrase your going to either get better or worse, the Phils can’t get any better and Amaro’s approach has been bold with such a volatile fanbase by making sure the holes on the roster are filled with players that add stability, real veterans. We’re counting on our additions being that bit more from Jimmy, Ryan, Brett in front of guys who are going to give you a chance to win more than not if the team play play the game right, its not about being spectacular every time out and with every deal.
A great off-season isn’t being active because you can, it’s about being active when you need to be and Amaro has the confidence in the roster which was virtually in tact anyway to make the right moves, not the flashy ones, but the right ones.
Now with the uncertain times he can play from a position of strength. It’s unlikely Lowe will work out but if we want to add another starter look at the guys out there who’s values are at an all time low, free agents expected to be coverted like Oliver Perez, Russ Springer, Orlando Hudson are just sitting there suddenly looking at one year contracts because the multi-year deals are so much lower than they’d expected. The off-season strategy by Amaro has been VERY solid, win or loose the roster has everything to be a fixture in October and anything Amaro could add from here is from a postion of want not need.
We don’t have a bad team and we don’t have a bad far, things in certain areas could be improved but look at the competition in the NL, it’s only really the Cubs and Phillies in tact right now looking at short-term success and long-term stablity.
Posted: 04:11 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Those who want another starter who do not have faith in JA Happ why not call for Oliver Perez, if Lowe becomes a Met where does he get his deal? Remember Sheets is in higher demand so where… St.Louis? Atlanta?
To round out the rotation what about Looper, Garland… There’s names sitting out there that can give the best back of the rotation in the game you ‘need’ to add someone.
Bigger picture…
Posted: 04:16 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Bill
I would take Lowe for 3 years at $15 million. I understand the Phillies not spending money but after the increased revenue from winning the World Series and the increase in ticket price, now is the time to take that extra jump in payroll. I know that is a lot to expect from the Phillies but to get the dividends you have to make an investment. What a better time then now?
http://www.myteamrivals.typepad.com/phightin_phils_phorum
Posted: 04:31 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
One thing that isn’t noted in the off-season anaylsis is somewhere around $6-7m of the kitty had already been allocated in locking up Brad Lidge.
Posted: 04:34 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Justin
The Phils honestly don’t need much help from outside with the strength we’ve had in arms a signing of Derek Lowe would take money away from the likes of Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard and other deserving players of longterm contracts. There are 2 players I have an interest in, the one main player I would really like to see come to Philly is Jerry Hairston, can play any position except 1st. The other name that intrigues me is that Ben Sheets is still on the open market and while teams are very wary of his injuries, I would be intrigued by a low base salary and lots of bonuses if healthy and meets team goals.
Posted: 04:38 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
I would stay away from Oliver Perez because signing him gives the mets a draft pick of yours…also he wants too much money and is inconsistent. if he was so great hed have signed already. i could see him limping back to the mets for a one year deal to prove himself again, but for the phillies to sign him its more costly because he was offered arbitration. sheets must really have bad medical records because NOBODY has touched him yet.
I have faith in JA Happ to be the fifth starter. Im calling for an upgrade over Brett Myers. Sign Lowe, move Myers’ salary. ONLY IF you can get lowe for a deal simialr to the one laid out above. two years with an option for a third that vests if he is durable. It may be ok to go a little higher on the salary if the years are limited. I know that boras wont like that, but hes gotta wake up and be realistic. get his client a deal. If he screws this round of negotiations up then lowe should can him.
Posted: 04:50 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
I’m not necassarily saying I’d want Oliver Perez but a FA particularly a Boras client is only expensive when he has suitors. I still have hope we’ll sign Lowe to a moderate deal but there are incredible deals to be had in this current market if you lower expectations, just look at the Fuentes deal. The aim is to find someone ‘better’ than Myers, with Lowe your looking at around $48m whereas Perez could be had for near Fuentes money if he stays on the market with so few interested teams. Sure he’s hasn’t got Lowe’s consistentcy but he potentially could be had on a deal that could end up as pure robbery when you look at the cost of guys like Silva, Marrquis, Lilly, Meche.
Just an example, there are a lot more quality players left out their with bargain basement value so thumbs up to Amaro for not crippling the payroll like Minaya and coming out with a better team.
Posted: 05:09 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
^I just mean this off-season better deals are being made. Fuentes was a better deal than K-Rod, Lowe will be a better deal than Burnett and Perez or Sheets could be a much better deal than Lowe. Some teams will literaly be commiting robbery by the time the season starts because there are very good players on the market and their bargaining position is weak at best.
The quality of your GM has to be the deals he can make not what he spends. The idea of Minaya being a good GM is a falasy in context because he rarely makes good deals, same with Hendry. Kenny Williams is a better GM than both of those because he can waste funds and turn it around with a coherant strategy that isn’t flash the cash.
Posted: 05:21 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Eb
Blanton getting an extension??? I have never been very high on him, true he pitched a Gem this postseason but i think we can do better between prospects and/or separate signings.
Give Cole and Victorino their money. I would wait to see how some of the outfield prospects come along before giving Werth an extension.
Myers will probably walk after this year, clearing room for Carassco and/or Drabek to step up.
Posted: 05:31 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Justin
I really hope that Michael Taylor is showing his true promise and that last season was just the beginning, but I’m not going to be too overly optimistic, since he’s just going to taste AA ball and that’s how talent gets truely evaluated. There are some good OFs in the system that it may not be worth signing Werth longterm specially since he’s going to want a starter’s salary and in 2 or 3 years could be a 4th outfielder, if Taylor and others prove to be better players.
Posted: 05:37 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 KM
“Safe” may be the approach that won them the world series, but I would sure as hell like to see Lowe, the sinker-baller in a Phillies uniform. If nothing else, it would block the Mets, our biggest competition from getting him.
Posted: 05:39 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 PhillyFriar
@ Tim:
I understand your overall point here, but I don’t understand how Derek Lowe — himself just 35, and a model of consistency as well — is any more of a risk than a 45-year old Jamie Moyer. Since becoming a starter in 2002, Lowe hasn’t posted an FIP above 4.26, and if you can sign him to a 3-year deal (in the neighborhood of $48 million), I see that as a much lesser risk than Moyer (even considering that Moyer’s deal is worth $18 million or so at most).
Posted: 05:59 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Wed all like to see lowe but i dont think any of us would want them to blow mad money on him. I think werth could end up being a great 5th hitter in this lineup, so id prefer to keep him around as well as victorino. locking those two guys up isw HUGE for the future of this franchise. They got steals when they found them on the scrapheap, now theyve emerged as prime talent entering their prime years. they MUST be signed to extensions. they still have hamels under control for a few more years, but they should still move to lcok him up. they already spend 17mm or so on FA’s, and dont forget about howard. anyway we look at it this team is going to be spending some big money in the offseason as it is.
if they do sign lowe i can almost guarantee myers is gone.
Posted: 06:06 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
I also agree though, taht since they signed park – ibanez – moyer the FA market has grinded to a halt. there are TONS of deals to be had. So if the last three remaining tasks are to add a right-handed bench bat (must do), a reliever (i think they should further bolster this bullpen), and upgrade over brett myers and then move his contract (given the market conditions in MLB now. maybe that right handed bench bat is a guy that youd normally not be able to afford. maybe you get someone to makes jenkins the 5th outfielder instead of the 4th. maybe you go after a reliever whos price has become affordable now. maybe lowe and perez finally break and drop the price…i dont see the point in signing a starting pitcher at this stage unless its going to upgrade over brett myers at the 2 spot and allow them to move him..
Posted: 06:18 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 john of Albuquerque
I still say that Raul Ibanez is too old to demand $10million a year for three years. Too old despite his reputation for staying in shape. Most players stay strong but lose reflexes. There were better choices than Ibanez, such as Ty Wigginton, who plays two positions and is 31. Phe Phils could have landed him for around $7million or less. Then they would have had enough to gamble on Brad Penny — also 31.
Posted: 07:27 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Grrrumpy Miner
Tim,its always better to be safe than sorry.Take it from me,case A Pedro Martinez and case B Billy Wagner and case C Moises Alou.Phillies should invest in their stars like Hamels,Victorino,Utley,and of course Ryan Howard.My Amazins gave homegrown talent like Wright and Reyes deals so they don’t have to go through arbitration and they both should feel a sense of gratitude that the Mets believe in them.Now Tim,you and I know that the Phillies don’t step up to the plate and spend money and try to go on the cheap….but now is the time for Amaro and the hierarchy go out there and commit to YOUR homegrown talent b4 its too late,Also….the brass needs to stop lowballing Ryan Howard with arbitration b4 he jumps ship.
Posted: 07:32 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Ibanez is a little different, hes one of those fitness freak guys…i feel safer with him than with burrell actually. hamels, werth, victorino are automatic, theyll resign them. howard needs to stop striking out so much or ask for less money for the phillies to pony up for him.
Posted: 07:43 PM on January 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Memphis
I actually find it hard to believe the Phils are really in on Lowe. No local Philly writers are writing about it. SI’s John Heyman adds the Phils are “interested.” MLBtraderumors.com then picks up the SI story. Boston Globe downplays any interest from the Red Sox or Phils. Boras may have his mystery teams, but is there any reason to think Lowe has any option but the Mets? I’d like to see him in Philly, I think he could win 15-20 in front of our infield, love to hear the rumors, but I’m really beginning to doubt that we have any real interest.
Posted: 02:47 PM on January 5, 2009