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Victorino Deserving Of Long-Term Deal

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, January 09, 2009 10:55 AM | Comments: 40
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It’s interesting to compare the careers of Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels. Both started regular play for the Phillies in the 2006 season — Shane as pseudo-everyday right fielder, Cole as starting pitcher. Both posted good if unspectacular numbers in ’06, with each showing his raw potential. In 2007, both saw upticks in production, with Hamels raising his record to 15-5, and Victorino raising his home run total to 12. And in 2008, both put up career numbers, finishing with gusto in the postseason. Sure, Hamels was the team’s pitching MVP in the postseason, but Victorino probably was the offensive MVP.

But while we await a long-term deal for the 25-year-old Hamels, the 28-year-old Victorino isn’t as certain. But he does deserve to jump arbitration and secure a few years as a Phillie.

The reason is simple: Victorino is a rare commodity. Everyday center fielders with speed, strong hitting tendencies, power potential and great defense are not as easy to find these days. I can count a few out there:

  • Matt Kemp: The Dodger hit .290 with 18 HR and 76 SB, while also playing sufficient defense.
  • Carlos Beltran: The most complete center fielder in baseball regularly hits over 20 HR and steals over 20 bags.
  • Grady Sizemore: Almost as complete as Beltran, he could hit 30 HR and steal 50.
  • Torii Hunter: Though he’s aging quickly, he packs a lot of power and still plays spectacular defense.
  • BJ Upton: This could be a huge year for the athletic center fielder.
  • Nate McLouth: Had a very good year in 2008 with strong power and nice speed.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury: Kind of the opposite — more speed than anything, but a good all-around player.
  • Curtis Granderson: Despite injury, Granderson had good numbers in 2008 in all categories.

Victorino nestles nicely in that pack, with an OPS that matches up with Kemp. And at age 28, his prime is just about here, which means inking him for a three- to four-year deal should be close to a shoo-in. The only question is health, as Vic hasn’t played a full season yet; however, factor in his postseason output, and it’s easy to see Victorino’s upside outweighs the one question.

Start with a 3Y/$16.5M offer. Go from there.

 
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  • Posts: 0 JohnKruksLoveChild

    Speed, power, lays down a good bunt, excellent fielding percentage…. what’s not to love about Vic.

    No questions asked.

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    Id do it in a heartbeat. After that high and tight pitch from Kuroda in the NLCS I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what raised the rest of his teammates to the next level to topple the Dodgers.

     
  • Posts: 0 Eb

    3 years? Wouldnt that only buy his arbitration years?

    I would start at 4-24 jjust to get one year of FA out of the way. However being a centerfielder (short career before being moved to a corner) he may want to go for three years so he can get more money.\

    Either way it would be a great signing.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I think Victorino is arbitration eligable this year AND next, and wouldn’t become a Free Agent until after 2010 season…???

    Werth is a Free Agent after 2009, so i’d rather see them jump on Werth this year to lock him in for 3 years, and then next year you have a better idea of what numbers Victorino will put up as an everyday CF… no need to overpay him this season when you already have him under team control next year..

    For that same reason, I dont think they give Hamels a long-term deal this offseason.. he’ll make like $5 M in arbitration, no need to pay him $10 M as the first year of a multi-year extension.. that would just be wasting money..

    yea its nice to reward your players and give them long-term deals, but its not the smart way to run a team, especially a team with self-imposed, limited-payroll.

     
  • Posts: 0 fred

    Victorino would never accept 3 years at 16.5 million, he’d get way more than that through arbitration.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    The key time to do a long term deal is usually 2 years before FA for pitchers and one year before FA for position players, though there are exceptions in longoria and braun. so werth comes first. next offseason itll be hamels and victorino…not sure what theyll do abotu myers and blanton

     
  • Posts: 0 krieg

    shane-o is my favorite phillie, but wait until last year of arb to lock him up. maybe 4 at 32 by then?

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    If Myers starts the season anything like he finished last year… they need to re-up for 2-3 years..

    When does Blanton become a FA? I think he’s going to be good for us this season

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Blanton also has one year left on his deal.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I mean..hes under team control for one more year.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    From mlbTR

    According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves met with Derek Lowe and Scott Boras for several hours yesterday. O’Brien says the Braves’ offer was unknown, implying that they did make an offer.

    O’Brien also reiterated that Boras said the Mets’ widely reported three-year, $36MM offer was never made and would’ve been far too low anyway. O’Brien mentions the Phillies, Brewers, and Angels as other Lowe suitors, but Ken Rosenthal said those three clubs denied interest. Brewers GM Doug Melvin said Tuesday in regard to Lowe: “We’re not in on him.”

     
  • Posts: 0 Georgie

    You have to wonder if Boras’ yet unsigned clients are about ready to smack him upside the head?

    Speaking of entertaining, this is off-topic but pretty amusing;
    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/archive/years/2008/1231081barkley1.html
    If the link doesn’t work, go to thesmokinggun.com and search Charles Barkley, Dec 31 2008 article. Best reason I’ve ever heard for running a stop sign.lol

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    They continue to insist that the Phillies are in on Lowe and it mystifies me where that money would come from, especially if you include arbitration and potential long term extensions for players…I know the Angels would sign him but he really genuinely seems to want to play on the east coast. It really seems to be between the Phils, Mets, and Braves and its safe to say that Lowe is most likely to be pitching somewhere in the NL East next season.

    also, Id offer 3/21-24mm for each of shane and werth to lock them up now…with how much some guys are pulling in, thats a bargain.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Georgie- That’s why I’ve said about Oli Perez who’s the Boras client probably hit the worst. You can understand Pudge being a tough sell in this market, but Perez/Varitek/Anderson… There’s seemingly been more interest for Willie Bloomquist.

    At last look the only contracts for Boras clients were Tex, Felipe Lopez, Oliver accepting arbitration and Willy Tavarez signing with the Red after being non-tendered. Not impressive work by the ‘super agent’

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Yeah Boras has really taken a hit in his reputation this offseason. All his own doing. He failed to recognize the economic situation and on hot stove the other night he refused to acknowledge that the economic situation has any impact at all on contract negotiations. totally out of line.

     
  • Posts: 0 mets09

    I like the respect for Beltran. But seriously,Vic is worth way more then 3/16. And to those saying to lock up werth first.Vic is way better and more valuable the Werth.Vic can be part of a core while w erth is a piece

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Right, but Vic is already under team control for the next two seasons… Werth can walk after this year, and with very good all-around numbers, and LOADS of talent and potential… Werth would get a better contract from any team that needs a good corner OF.. like the Mets

    We’re not dumb, obviously Beltran, Wright, and Reyes are very good players.. I still like J-Roll better, and Hamels is catching up to Santana sooner or later..

    So while the Mets should be good next year, I still don’t think they will be as good as the Phillies. Lets see who stays healthy though because the loss of Wagner killed you guys last year

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Where the Mets are good they tend to be very good, problem is the organisation has a air of superiority and doesn’t adress the underlying reasons why things don go to their plan, their farm and depth has turned into a mess.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    MLB TR has the Mets signing Redding to a one year deal. Then Dierkes has the mets still signing both lowe and perez. i think his assessment there is WAY WAY WAY off. I think This signing of Tim Redding takes the Mets out of the sweepstakes for lowe. Their current rotation is santana – maine – # 3 – Pelfrey – Redding. thats one lefty and three righties. Signing Lowe, another righty starter makes them VERY one sided and VERY vulnerable to the phillies lefty-heavy lineup. They MUST either sign Oliver Perez or Randy Wolf to fill out their rotation with a lefty.

    That means the Phillies have to deal with the braves for Lowe, who are rumored to be on the brink of signing kawakami, which would fill out their rotation and take them out of the running for lowe, leaving the braves money to sign a power-hitting corner outfielder (abreu, manny, dunn).

    so its there for the phils if they want it. boras’ plan has collapsed around him…

     
  • Posts: 0 joshua

    Geoff, you are WAY off base, redding does not take the mets out of lowe, They are still going after him. Redding is not a sure shot for the #5 spot btw, he’s only competeing for it during ST.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    joshua….the mets still ened to sign one more starter and AT LEAST one more reliever, a good reliever, and a bench bat/corner outfielder because the mix of tatis chuch and those two younglings isnt going to cut it. the mets also need a backup catcher because their organization has a bunch of trash like robinson cancel to fill that spot, and thats unacceptable. i predict the mets will make a surprise play for jason varitek.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    they havent been close on pricing for lowe AND theyve said theyre already close to their max for payroll for this offseason…so unless they pull a yankees on us and splurge, signing bad contracts, then they have too many needs and not enough room to fit them in.

    the phillies meanwhile, still need a reliever and a right handed bench bat and could use another starter, but have JA Happ to fall back on if they cant sign lowe. they have said almost nothing about their payroll this offseason because everyone knows its going to go up anyway, so we have NO idea how much they truly intend to invest in teh roster.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Is that dude Neise a LHP?

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    yeah i think he is but it sounds like theyre nto ready to plug him in teh rotation yet…

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    also..joshua…if he was COMPETING for the spot as camp fodder they wouldnt have GUARANTEED him 2.5 million. that tells me that if he loses the spot ten hell be in teh bullpen…they have a 3 way battle for the 4-5 between niese pelfrey and redding from my viewpoint

     
  • Posts: 0 David W

    jonathan niese is a lefty, reading would be picked as a number 5

     
  • Posts: 0 Gary

    Kemp had 76 RBI, not 76 SB
    He had 35 SB
    …76 SB sounded a bit scary

     
  • Posts: 0 David W

    76 SBs, thats reyes territory…; )

     
  • Posts: 0 David W

    i think Dan Murphy is going to SHOCK alot of heads this year.

     
  • Posts: 0 Malcolm

    The Mets are going to pick up a left-handed specialist like Will Ohman, Joe Beimel or Dennys Reyes. I could easily see them putting in an offer for Varitek. The Mets are definitely split in the upper offices between Lowe and Perez. I’ve read Minaya prefers Perez. Redding is going to be a good signing for the Mets. He shined against Phillies in 4 of 5 games last season. It’s hard to know who the Mets are going to sign to fill their last rotation spot. I do think that they will end up signing Derek Lowe, and I think his durability and consistency is something that they need in a true #2.

     
  • Posts: 0 David W

    i dont really see the mets picking up a lefty specialist, but i could be wrong…lets not forget pedro feliciano was really sharp 06,07 and first half of last year, i still think he will be back to his old stuff, the injury to wagner threw that whole bullpen off, and nobody had a real role. a fresh start will do them right.

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    I’d like to see the Mets and Braves fall out of the running for Lowe and see if his demands for 16 mill per comes down to say 10-12, and see if the Phils are really interested, if they are they will sign him even if they do have enough starters now. You never know what can happen in a season.

     
  • Posts: 0 Andrew

    Beltran or as my friend in NY calls him beltOUT is not good. He like Delgado and Reyes are anchors and are why the Phils consistantly beat them. Shane is a gamer. Beltout is not. Id not take beltout for free.

     
  • Posts: 0 joshua

    andrew you don’t know anything.

     
  • It is quite evident that Victorino proved his worth throughout the playoffs as a clutch player. Victorino is on the upward swing in his career and is a solid clubhouse guy as well. The last three years his numbers have increased each year and last year ended with over 100 hits and batted .293, not bad from a guy who wasn’t expected to provide significant offensive production. Lock him down Philly!

     
  • Posts: 0 david w

    i second that joshua

     
  • Posts: 0 IRONPIGPEN

    Shane Victorino was very instrumental to the Phillies success this season. He is worth every penny the Phillies pay him, and not just for his work in the playoffs. He also will stand forever in history as the first Philadelphia Phillies player to ever appear at Coca-Cola Park in the uniform of the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (8 ab, 3 h, .375 avg) while on rehab last April. This coming April 16 will be Flyin’ Hawaiian Bobble Head Doll Night at Coca-Cola Park!

     
  • Posts: 0 MikeB

    Phillies are due to have a change of luck against Tim Redding. I predict that they will pin more wins on him this coming season what with the better hitting Raul Ibanez in the lineup and Pat Burrell gone along with all his many strikeouts and extended batting slumps.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck P

    We have to sign Vic long term at some point… whether it’s this season or next doesn’t really matter. When we traded Golson, that was a clear indication that Vic is the CF of the future. We have no one on the farm who will be ready to play CF for quite some time. Whether Amaro decides to lock him up this year or next depends on when he believes he will be able to get him the cheapest. Coming off of a Gold Glove/WS campaign, Vic’s price tag is certainly higher than it would have been last year, however, with the market conditions the way they are, maybe it is a good idea to at least discuss it (FA’s not getting what they expect). I’m not sure that we’re going to give Werth anything long-term… with Taylor, Brown and Mayberry making strides on the farm, you have to think that Werth becomes expendable.

     
  • I really liked your blog with the Cleveland Indians mention!

     
 
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