5 Burning Questions For 2009
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, February 05, 2009 11:10 AM | Comments: 57
Posts, Raising Questions
Here we go, folks. We can almost hear the birds chirping, the grass growing, the sprinklers … sprinkling. And with about a week until the flowers bloom in Clearwater, Fla., I’ve assembled the five important questions facing the Phillies in 2009.
Will there be harrowing injury after harrowing injury?
I covered this issue earlier in the week. The Phillies will be playing with fire after maxing plenty of young players in 2008. Cole Hamels pitched 270 innings including the postseason. Brett Myers was among league leaders in innings pitched. Those are just two examples; the injury bug might knock players such as Shane Victorino and Chad Durbin, as well. It’s very possible that after a relatively healthy 2008, the 2009 Phillies will suffer a few tough injuries.
The key will be early prevention and in-season depth. Already it seems the Phillies have both. As I wrote, expect players such as Geoff Jenkins and Chan Ho Park to get long looks early. And don’t count out in-season performances by JA Happ, Gary Majewski, John Mayberry Jr. and of course, Carlos Carrasco, to name a few.
Can Ryan Howard become a multi-dimensional hitter again?
In 2006, Ryan Howard slammed a franchise-record 58 home runs. But he also hit .313. Last season, he barely climbed above .250. Howard remains a threat with the longball, but if his game grows any more one-dimensional, he won’t be carrying the Phillies like he has in the past.
We saw Howard had trouble staying on top of the ball, and continued to struggle hitting balls low in the strike zone. At some point, it’s not merely about striking the ball to the opposite field; instead, it’s more a case of having a fluid, straight swing that drives a ball into the gaps. When Howard is doing that, he’s at his very best. And if he can sustain that type of production in 2008, he’ll surely become the all-feared hitter he should be.
Will Raul Ibanez be the right replacement for Pat Burrell?
When the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year deal, fans complained. Then the tide turned out of nowhere. What could possibly turn Phils fans in favor of Ibanez? Maybe it was his honest press conference, where he assured fans and the media he wasn’t Pat Burrell, but he was a player who will play every game as if it was the World Series.
Ibanez is a strong hitter who can hit left-handed and right-handed pitching. Defensively, he’s similar to Burrell, but can bust a bit faster than No. 5. His arm is probably a little weaker than Burrell’s, however. Overall, he’s very close in value, but his real worth will be proven early, when Chase Utley is returning from injury and Ryan Howard might be having another cold April. That’s when Burrell turns it on; Ibanez needs to do the same.
Can the bullpen be as strong as 2008?
It’ll be difficult, but it is possible that the 2009 Phillies bullpen is better than the 2008 brand. It all starts with middle relief, really. Last season, Chad Durbin helped bridge the rotation to Brad Lidge; compared to past middle relievers, he was a lifesaver. In 2009, strong middle relief will be key.
Sure, Lidge will be there in the back. And Ryan Madson will look to be the game’s top setup man. And Scott Eyre will attempt to smooth over the left-handed role until JC Romero returns. But nothing is completely known; of course, nothing was known going into 2008. How can the Phils keep a strong bullpen? Find a formula and run with it. Here’s hoping they find it.
How good is this team?
Since the Phillies are now world champions, the expectations are high as ever. The goal — finally — is repeating as champions. Getting back to the World Series is good. Anything short? Not good enough.
With confidence, I can say the Phillies are among the top five teams in baseball heading into 2009. And I would even venture to say the Phils might be the game’s best team before first pitch is thrown. Are they the 112-win team Jimmy Rollins says they are? It’s possible. Yes, it’s possible this team could be the greatest Phillies team ever assembled. But we won’t know that for a while. For now, we can say that they’re good. Very good. And it’ll be a wild 2009.
Posts: 0 Fran
That last paragraph gave me chills, lets get this season started!
Posted: 11:48 AM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Jim
I love the phillies just as much as you guys do, and yes we won the world series last year.
But can we really say we are better than the yankees. I mean who knows the yanks could bust again but they have a killer lineup and pitching staff.
If you ment the phils are the best team in the national league, id be hard pressed, as would anyone, to argue otherwise until opening day .
Posted: 11:56 AM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
Well written article Tim.
Posted: 12:11 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Oh man, I am SO ready for spring and baseball. Woke up this am to 4 more inches of snow, and Tues night missed a foot of snow by a few miles, there is some freaky-assed weather here in Lanc Co these days. And I’m going to ride this WS horse til it drops and say the Phillies are the BEST team in baseball until someone proves otherwise!
Posted: 12:28 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Monktavian
I have been a Phils’ fan for near 50 years and I am still celebrating. Hopefully the key team players are not still celebrating as well. Hopefully they are hitting the gym and staying in shape. Rembember when Howard came back after his MVP year, and he stated his slow start was largely blamed on the Banquet Circle. Well, a lot of Phils were on that same Circle this year. I just hope they and fit and ready to play professional baseball when spring training opens. Otherwise we will see injuries.
Posted: 12:50 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 NEPA
The first question is the one I’m most worried about. I’m praying no serious injuries – especially players like Hamels, Werth and Utley.
Posted: 01:19 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Chase Mutley
Jim, who’s patrolling the outfield for the mighty Yankees? Can you make the argument that they’re better than the Phils? Without a doubt, yes. Is it a forgone conclusion that they’re clearly the better team? Absolutely not. The thing that makes a team like the Phils special, is youth. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Jason Werth, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Ryan Madson are at the prime of their careers right now. The idea of Tex and A-Rod in the same lineup is frightening and they’ve added some big names to the starting rotation but there are also some question marks as well. Is CC still a Cy Young pitcher? Is AJ Burnett really any good? The Phils have just as many question marks I think but they can certainly hang with the big boys.
Posted: 01:21 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
I was so psyched after reading this post,that I had to be sedated.
Its going to take a team running on all cylinders to do it again,a lot has to fall in place.But i love this team and the way we play.
I think the main subject above has to be injuries.If we can stay away from them especially with our pitching staff,we’ll be ok.
I dont know if were better than the Yanks ,and I dont care.We won it all last year and they didnt!
Posted: 01:58 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Um, he said that because the Yankees are not a team. They DONT EVEN COUNT. Theyre a collection of overpaid all stars who dont like each other and dont care about their teammates. And yes, I do know that. Yes, thats teh way theyve been for years now. Yes, the Phillies are a better TEAM than the Yankees and the phillies have a better chance of repeating as world champions than the yankees do of even getting to the playoffs.
Pay attention now: The Yankees WILL NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS…again.
Posted: 02:04 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 william
this is way off topic but WOW ben sheets needs elbow surgery how bis is that !!! no wonder no one would bite on that guy glad we did not get stuck with that mess! anyway outside the ibanez question you could say the same thing every year it just comes down to the same answer every year did the players take care of themselves in the offseason and how bad do they want it? it should be great to watch and you just gotta keep the faith!
Posted: 02:39 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Thats why nobody went after him. All teams were provided with his medical records when he became a free agent and they must not have liked what they saw.
The only other burning question i have is when they will get rid of ryan howard….because either way, im confident in the phillies chances of repeating with or without ryan howard.
Posted: 02:42 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Im VERY excited to see Ibanez in this lineup with the way he is capable of hitting for average.
Posted: 02:58 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
also, apparently the phillies have about obnly 1M to spend…that tells me that they wont do anything OR theyll trade either howard or blanton or myers to free up room to get further reenforcements. id rather them keep myers and prob balnton too, of course. and you know who that leaves out in the cold..
Posted: 03:03 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 KidCarnivore
No way in Hell will Howard be traded, that’s ridiculous at this point.
Also, great list of questions. The one I’d add is Myers. Depending on which Myers shows up, we could be in great shape early in the season.
Posted: 03:24 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
wanna bet? the first team that comes along with a good offer for howard…seya pal…out the door in no time.
Posted: 03:35 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Bob
Howard goes no where until at least 2011. He will play a huge role in helping the Phils defend their World Series. WOW!! I love saying that!!
Posted: 04:22 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 tim mccarver sucks
Pitchers who go down after that inning load are ususall power pitchers who rely only on a fastball. Josh Beckett last year wasnt the same pitcher after the postseason load for the redsox. The phillies have the great fortune of hamels is in great shape and he isnt a fastball rely only pitcher to succed. He will have a peroid of dead arm though in july again because of innings but he will return to normal by mid aug.
Posted: 05:10 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I’m gonna pull a j-roll outta my a** and say that the 2009 World Series will be Phillies vs. Yankees. Good vs. Evil.
Posted: 06:26 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 KidCarnivore
Geoff, yes, I would love to bet that Ryan Howard won’t go anywhere other than Clearwater for the rest of this off-season. You’re expecting some blockbuster trade in February?
Posted: 08:41 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Btw, I really liked this article Tim.
Posted: 08:46 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Geoff, i heard from inside sources that if you call Ryan Howard “pal” one more time… that he’s going to come to your house and break your keyboard
Posted: 09:04 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 David, the Mets fan from Queens
Your article is tainted with both bias and incredulity, Tim.
Before you audaciously assess the Phillies as “the game’s best team,” I suggest you first assess the NL East. The fight for the NL East in 2009 will, I believe, come down to your Phillies or my Mets. Keep in mind that the Mets won the Mets-Phillies season series by a good margin. Now that the Mets have a solidified bullpen, I believe that the Mets will be that more difficult to beat. Likely, I acknowledge that acquiring Ibanez was a great move, seeing that our left-field situation is as ambivalent as John Maine’s health and Oliver Perez’s consistency. I also doubt that Tatis can repeat such an unexpected performance. Still, if healthy, the Mets are as good as the Phillies. What I’ve noticed about your team is that its players have HEART. I wish my Mets cared half as much as Shane Victorino does. In essence, the NL East is definitely up for grabs.
I won’t elaborate on the both the West or Central, but I will only mention the fact that the Cubs will be a strong contender to reach the World Series once again.
I’m being fair-minded and humble in my analysis, unlike your article. No disrespect to you, of course.
Posted: 10:28 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well he already got traded to the yankees for chien ming wang, xavier nady and ian kennedy…they just havent decided to “activate” it yet…if you know what i mean. i mena, with secret trades, you know. and they told ryan howard. they said “hey, pal, youre outta here. were just gonna wait a little while longer. seya pal. pack your bags, pal.”
Posted: 10:36 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Geoff, you just called Ryan “pal” like five times, your keyboard is TOAST!
Posted: 10:38 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
well he cant come do that because hes on his way to new york….
Posted: 10:40 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
haha, he and Jimmy are no doubt flying high tonight, but not in transit to NY.
Posted: 10:46 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Chase Mutley
a) Don M always makes me laugh.
b) David, the Mets fan; were you really looking for un-biased reporting from a website called http://www.philliesnation.com? Lets be honest though, you added a stopper with EIGHT BLOWN SAVES in 2008 and are coming back with the same rotation as last year, the same mess of an outfield, no bats off the bench, and Carlos Delgado a year older. So essentially, you’re saying that this team can match up to the WORLD CHAMPIONS who are coming back short ONE player from the Championship team?
The Phillies win the NL East easily this year. Another World Series? Lets not get ahead of ourselves.
Posted: 10:47 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
yeah i think jimmy was flying high when he said 112 wins…they could win 100 regular season games if all stay healthy though…
Posted: 10:47 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
That’s always the thing that seems to be key in winning a championship in any sport, a season with few injuries. The Phillies were really lucky last year as far as major players taking DL time, esp pitching staff.
Posted: 11:21 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
yeah everyone was healthy pretty much except a few weeks here or there…its unheard of to have that two years in a row. i hope theyre prepared and have the depth. i think they have offensive depth i hope they have starting depth to bring up from AAA (Carrasco). theyve gathered tons of relievers with major league service time to hide in AAA in case they need them. which is really smart because they might need to rely on one or two of those guys before the season runs its course.
Posted: 11:28 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Yeah, I can’t say I’m completely confident with the starters, I mean, really, Hamels is the only sure thing, Myers will have to have an entire season like last half before I’ll be on board with him, and Blanton, I have a gut feelin, will be ok, and Jamie, well, he IS getting up there…I have feeling we’ll be seeing Carrasco fill in before the end of the season though, somethings gotta give this year, luck of the draw.
Pitchers and catchers report on Valentine’s Day, but I guess some of them are already there. I wonder how the fifth spot will pan out?
Posted: 11:36 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
Geoff loves bashing Howard, “seya pal” hahahahahaha
Posted: 11:39 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
JA Happ will win the 5th spot and I realy do think he will finish the season as the 3rd or 4th guy on the depth chart in the rotation. he has all the tools and he reminds me of a younger andy pettite with untapped potential. theyve misused him for years now and now is the time for him to shine. hell be ok….kendrick and coste are odd men out in their battles, theyll be moved i feel. i think eaton will eventually be moved for 1M (pirates).
i dont trust moyer. hes totally dependent on the umpires strike zone. if he doesnt get any breaks hes out of the game, EVERY TIME, by the 5th inning, lol. with someone like that, ill always consider him a 5th starter even if he puts up good numbers because you just dont know what to expect. anything he gives you is a blessing.
unless a major trade (howard) shakes up the roster, your rotation will be what you think itll be. blanton is going to be a solid 4th guy. not flashy, but hell log innings in the mid-low 4′s ERA. one of those guys will probably get hurt or tank out (i think itll be moyer and that hell have to retire – as time has gone on, i think bringing him back on a two year contract will prove to be a serious mistake). i think hell last long enough though ( a month and a half or two) to allow carrasco to declare himself ready for a callup and that he will fill out the rotation THIS season…
so youll have hamels – myers – carrasco (replacing moyer and taking his turn until they can reset) – blanton – happ by June or July in my gut prediction.
still, that rotation will be good enough to win them the division. if they make trades that would probably change all of that though but if everything stays the same thats my gut feeling….
Posted: 11:48 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
Geoff will go to his grave saying Howard is the worst person and baseball player of all time, it is hilarious
Posted: 11:51 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
well thats obviously not true…there are plenty of worse players and worse people. howard obviously is a tremendous player, i just dont like certain things about him thats all…
Posted: 11:56 PM on February 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
I don’t really know that much about the AA/AAA teams, is it a sure bet that Carrasco will be able to cut it in the big leagues? I have to say I’m always a little leery about someone coming up until they prove they have the chops for it. I agree that Happ will be in the rotation, kendrick will probably go , as well as Coste, that’s all ok with me. I am just not sure of their hitting either, to be honest. They had alot of hitters with some pretty nasty slumps, so hopefully that will work itself out this year.
Posted: 12:01 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well theres no true way to tell. Its a fairly safe thing to say hell at the very least be a serviceable 3rd starter with the potential to be greater. what you cant tell is their mental makeup. he has the physical tools and the control and velocity to be great, but is he mentally tough enough? thats what you cant predict…oliver perez is a good example…he has all the physical tools to be a number two or a minor ace (like a 1.5)…but hes simply too whacky in the head and therefore will always be a 3 or a 4 until he gets his head right…there are tons of guys like that around the league. they just arent mentally tough enough as someone like cole hamels or johan santana.
the hitting will be improved by ibanez’s steady consistent approach. howard is a wild card. you know hell put up numbers at some point but hell be horrible for weeks at a time then go on a rampage for two weeks then repeat that cycle…if utley returns and stays healthy he should be more consistent then he was last year. hes too good to go through long slumps every year like that. vic and werth will be better as their enter their primes. theyll be more productive than last season…rollins will be back to his normal self too. burrells inconsistency was a huge problem in the 5th slot. werth will be better as a 5 hitter and hell produce a LOT, i really think he will. 25+HR 90+rbi.
Posted: 12:09 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Links of the Day: 2.5.09 « We’re the Team to Beat
[...] 5 Burning Questions for ‘09: “Since the Phillies are now world champions, the expectations are high as ever. The goal — finally — is repeating as champions. Getting back to the World Series is good. Anything short? Not good enough.” [...]
Posted: 12:29 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Chris.I
This site should be called ”Geoff Nation”. This dude writes on here more than Tim, and gets pretty damn annoying posting one comment after another. I think he feels like sports writer for ESPN or something…He’s worse than a Mets troll lol. I been getting pretty lazy on returning to the site lately, because its usually filled with a bunch of his clueless nonsense
Posted: 12:42 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Dan L
Can anyone remember the last time a Phillies team had this many spots on their team wide open AND they actually had legitimate competition?
kendrick (former 10 and 11 game winner)
Park (former 18 game winner)
Carrasco (gem of the farm system)
Happ (sensational finish to last year)
Coste (solid backup catcher the past few years)
Paulino (a guy the Pirates used to be high on)
Marson (catcher of the future, at least thats the plan)
Jenkins (consistent 20 hr per year guy–at least he was)
Stairs (ass hammerer)
Please, name me one other team in Phillies history with so many options worthy of attention. I’m curious
Posted: 06:32 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Brooks
Tim, the questions you raised are valid ones but certainly not the only ones that would make or break the WS championship run that we are all hoping for.
I think we should rate these questions in order of the importance to the success for the Phils this year:
1) What to expect from JROL?
Last year I got an earful from a favorite, the Wild Thing who said plainly right before a game in September that when Jimmy gets on base, the Phils find a way to win. He was on base all 5 appearences that game and they won handily. A very good year from Jimmy is crucial for their success.
Improvement!
2) What to expect from our big man? Is he a .250 hitter, a .313 hitter or somewhere inbetween? A steady average, hovering over .285 and we do not have to concern ourselves with his power numbers.
Improvement!
3) No way to expect relief pitching to match what they did last year, perfection just will not last in this league (Lidge) but that is OK. If the offense can settle in they will be the force to contend with for a few years coming up.
Not the same level as last year but, average will be OK if the O can come through
4) Will Shane & Werth continue to improve? Our sparkplug and guts – all indications point to improving stats, for Shane better average, for Werth? Who knows how good he can be?
Improvement!
5) Ibanez – wow, a legit hitter behind Howard, someone who sprays the ball around, someone reliable who will not show up for 45 days out of the season but hopefully be a steady, imposing force hitting either 5th or 6th in the lineup.
Def improvement!
6) Chase! Are we hopeful that he is the 3rd MVP in the Phils lineup? No reason to think different.
Improvement (hope!)
The remainder of the lineup can be crutial as well; 3b – Feliz, def improvement! C – Ruiz, def improvement (how can he hit worse?) For each of these positions, the Phils are looking like there is depth. Especially if they consider signing Nomar at third and consider using Marson at C. If either of these guys falters, we have ‘people’.
Starting Pitching – if the Phils O had shown up in the ND’s or very close losses in Hamels season, we would already have our 20 game winner (or darn close to it). No reason to believe he will not continue his dominance to go along with the Phils new found confidence. Blanton – if there are some people who think he is not a legit #2, I think this season will change some minds. I do not have a warm fuzzy about Meyers, Jamie, Happ or Kendrick – I have more confidence in the BP, regardless if they are not perfect like last season.
I think these are the questions.
As for Geoff – what in the hail are you talking about? This team without Ryan Howard is just a decent team fella. We would not be World Champions in 2008, we would be contenders without him (more the second tier of teams in the NL instead of on the top, defending our title).
Posted: 07:32 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Brooks
Dan L – I’m feeling you brother!
Posted: 08:57 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
whatever you say there…chief
Posted: 09:39 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Dan L
Right on Brooks. I’m all about complaining about Philly sports teams…I’ve lived in this area all of my life, it comes natural.
But really, we are in an EXCELLENT position, especially when considering our pitching staff.
Remember the drek that was Omar Daal, Robert Person, Bruce Chen, and company?
During the down years of the mid-to-late 90s, Kyle Kendrick would be our ace…and I’m talking about the Kendrick who blew up down the stretch last year.
Posted: 09:42 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
theyre definitely one of the top 5 teams in baseball, theres no doubt about that. dude…on some of those teams, adam eaton wouldve been like the number 2 at worst…
Posted: 10:07 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
guys.. Lou Marson could hit .800 in Spring Training and he still wouldn’t be on the big league club… He’s playing this season at AAA because that is what you do, you keep developing until you are ready to play everyday in the majors.
For that same reason, we won’t see Jason Donald up here to start the season either unless Utley would be out until May-June… no point in having prospects sit on your bench in the big leagues instead of playing everyday in the minors.
Geoff… are you saying that the Phillies are one of the top 5 teams in baseball?
Posted: 10:15 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
yes theres never been a doubt about that in my mind. theyve had a winning record for years now, two consecutive playoff appearances, one world championship. i mean..theyve got a nice program going right now. just because i dont like ryan howard and i have a few…minor..issues with soime of the decision-making from time to time doesnt mean i dont think theyre great…
Posted: 10:24 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
So you think they would still be a Top 5 team in baseball even without the best Power Hitter in the game on their team??
I’m having trouble understand your logic
Posted: 10:32 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
It they got a consistent hitter in return, along with some kind of pitching that can contribute at the major league level, then theyd still be top 5. yes, to replace howard adequately youd need a .290, 25 & 90 guy as wel as either starting or relief pitching who can improve over what we have right now….so youre scoring less runs, but enough to still be gerat and win if you further bolster your pitching staff.
Posted: 10:50 AM on February 6, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
And why would a team give that up?
What team is going to give up an All-Star type 1b, and pitchers better than what the Phillies have, for Ryan Howard… who you think sucks and doesn’t contribute to winning
Posted: 10:53 AM on February 6, 2009