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Ibanez Deal Tough To Swallow After Abreu Inks

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, February 12, 2009 07:25 AM | Comments: 190
Issues, Posts

If Ruben Amaro has made one mistake in the offseason, it was committing so early and so much money to Raul Ibanez. Two months after signing Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million contract, the Angels nabbed Bobby Abreu for the discounted terms of one year and $5 million.

Bobby Abreu: seven 100+ RBI seasons in eight years; eight 20-20 seasons; a career .300 average; a .405 on-base percentage.

Hey, Phillie fans know full well about Abreu, considering he’s one of the franchise’s greatest players. So it’s difficult to fathom that while Ibanez, a 36-year-old outfielder, got two more years and $26 million more than Abreu, a 33-year-old outfielder … who has better numbers.

Let’s look at their 2008 numbers, comparatively:

AB/H/Average
Ibanez: 635/186/.293
Abreu: 609/180/.296

HR/RBI/Slugging
Ibanez: 23/110/.479
Abreu: 20/100/.471

BB/SO/On-Base
Ibanez: 64/110/.358
Abreu: 73/109/.371

R/SB/OPS+
Ibanez: 85/2/124
Abreu: 100/22/120

Very, very similar. While Ibanez has a tad more power, Abreu has a tad more on-base skills. We know what Abreu will give a team — walks, singles and doubles, good speed. We’re not as sure with Ibanez, but from his numbers, we can tell he has above-average power and doubles ability. And consistency, right? Ruben Amaro Jr. stressed Ibanez’s consistency as one of the reasons he was sought instead of the plateau-and-valley Pat Burrell.

But a look at Ibanez’s 2008 gamelogs show he’s actually not unbelievably consistent. His season started strong with an OPS above .900. But that dipped below .800 by late May, mainly because of his slugging, and he wouldn’t get back above .800 until late July. So while it’s a two-month dip, it is a dip, and it’s the same kind of dip we’ve seen from Burrell, whose OPS first went below .900 in September. He suffered a two-month lull that lasted until his very last at bat as a Phillie, in game five of the World Series.

Abreu, meanwhile, fit himself in the .810s quickly. He had a couple weeks where his OPS slid into the .760s at worst, but it always regained into the .800s, mainly because no matter what, he’d find a way on base. Moreover, Abreu hit .800 on July 26 and never saw below it again, riding a hot final two months to an OPS that rested at .842, five points higher than Ibanez.

This isn’t to say Abreu was a better choice for the outfield than Ibanez. But all the sticking points that made Ibanez so desirable actually look better with Abreu. He’s just as consistent a hitter (and more consistent getting on base) than Ibanez (imagine Abreu getting on base a lot for Utley and Howard). He’s better on the basepaths and proabably similar in the field. He understands Philadelphia and is familiar with the clubhouse. He would have known he was coming in as a leader or a star, but a fine complimentary piece.

And those lefty splits that make Ibanez so great? While Ibanez is a career .268 hitter with a .733 OPS against lefties, Abreu is a career .280 hitter with a .776 OPS against lefties.

Amaro wanted his man and got his man, despite probably overpaying and over-reading the market early. Here’s hoping it works out — but hopefully he knows there were options that might have been just as good (if not better) and at a much, much cheaper price.

 
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  • Posts: 0 Kevin M

    I admit that now it looks a little foolish to have jumped on Ibanez when Amaro did but at the same time I am not going to put too much blame on him. He has still done a good job filling in the roster well before spring training. Honestly I would have been a little upset if Abreu came back to Philly. He had some good numbers but where was he when the team really needed him?

     
  • Posts: 0 PhillyFriar

    Well stated, Tim. I was not a big fan of the Ibanez deal at the time because it appeared that Amaro had jumped the market. Obviously that’s proven itself true as the offseason’s worn on. The Phillies will say that Ibanez is a better clubhouse guy, etc., but that doesn’t account for a $26 million discrepancy.

    Still, it’s hard to hammer Amaro for the offseason in general. Ibanez was a bad mistake, but I give him an A- for how he handled the rest of the offseason.

     
  • Posts: 0 Shawn

    It’s obvious that with the contracts given to the core of this team – the next 3 years are huge. So, if Ibanez contributes, with numbers and intangibles – like hitting well in the clutch & leadership – then $3-4M extra given per year is not a big deal. Also, one thing we have all learned in Philly is that you cannot just look at the numbers when judging Abreu. There has to be something said about a him, because it is when he left that this team started to hit their stride.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    If Abreu was platooning with Werth last year, this team would have still won the World Series. Abreu is better than Ibanez, but then again, Burrell is better than Ibanez as well.

    Ruben made a mistake, but once the season starts, it doesn’t matter. It only matters once Ibanez starts declining and his contract makes him impossible to jettison. Until then, go Ibanez!!

    Here’s a snippet from a Baseball Prospectus chat two days ago:

    “Tim (DC): Christina, which multi-year contract given to a hitter this off-season will look regrettable within 18 months? Bradley? Teixiera? Howard?

    Christina Kahrl: I’d pick Bradley, which is admittedly a bit gutless, but the guy’s track record for getting hurt is remarkable, and while it might be cool if he turns into the latter-day Rodman who doesn’t have to be the center of attention on a team already stocked with a lot of talent, it’s also a bit of wishcasting. I hope he pans out, but I’m a skeptic.

    Aaron (YYZ): Surely the Ibanez deal will look worse than the Bradley deal a year and a half from now.

    Christina Kahrl: Sure, but it just as surely looks worse right now, and looked worse a month ago.”

     
  • Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski

    I just ordered my Ibanez jersey! OK- remember guys, this isn’t fantasy baseball. This is real baseball. While, it does look like Amaro overpayed for Ibanez now, what about all of his other moves. And what about Adam Dunn getting 10M from the Nats? That to me, is the worst contract.

    Abreu just isn’t a winner. He doesn’t bring it to the table every night like Rollins, Utley, Victorino, et al. Abreu is a pure stats guy. Plus, how much confidence can he have when his fiancee went on reality TV and slept with her housemate or whatever for all of Venezeula to see? He has none! He never won with us, with a better Yankees lineup, and he won’t win in LA. He cannot be counted on in the clutch.

     
  • Posts: 0 Joel V

    Totally agree! Even after the rays signed Burrell for 2 yrs at 16 million I thought this. But Abreu signs for $5 million??? Furthermore, was anybody knocking down Ibanez’s door besides us to sign him?

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Joel V, you make a great point. All we heard about Ibanez was that the Mets were after him. Well, considering the Mets didn’t spend any money on any OFs, I don’t think they were after Ibanez. Amaro got played, but oh well.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I agree. Hes a good player still, but its a bad contract. I mean, they really did vastly overpay for him. They jumped the gun. They jumped the gun with moyer too. But he didnt really understand that were in a depression and most of the teams in mlb really didnt want to spend a lot of money.

    But the way I see it..they penny-pinched for years and they finally build a winner so theyre stuck with a huge payroll for a while now, liek it or not. i mean, eaton and jenkins and feliz will take a good chunk of change out of the payroll when they leave, and youd have to assume of myers or blanton will come off the payroll after the season (im thinking whichever of the two has a better year, logically, would get the extension). moyer comes off the books after another year and that same year victorino and werth would both need to be given extensions.

    so you might see about 30M or so come off the payroll but the payroll still is going to be qquite large for at least 3 more years…but when youre an elite team thats what happens.

     
  • Posts: 0 Greg V.

    I’m not bothered or disturbed by the Ibanez deal. Amaro took the helm and wanted to shake things up a bit. The man wears his ego on his sleeve. So he inked Ibanez for too much money. Oh well. Why are we crying about how Abreu was had so cheap? My memories of Abreu was that he put up half decent numbers but did not play hard at all. I don’t miss his years with the club. Final thoughts, Amaro should have waited. He didn’t Move on.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jim

    I see your argument here but I can’t say amaro is totally at fault. It was a tough market for free agent outfielders in our price range. He had two options, give a lot of money now and get a sure thing like ibanez, or wait it out and wait for players to settle for less at the risk of getting a smaller name player. If you had told me that abreu would not have been signed by feburary back in november id have laughed at you

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    It seemed like too much money and years in the first place (way before Abreu, Bradley, and everyone else signed).

    NOW, it seems like a really stupid deal, and I say that despite the fact that I really like Ibañez and what he will bring to the clubhouse.

    Also, I saw those lefty splits yesterday when comparing Ibañez with Abreu… the icing on the cake.

     
  • Posts: 0 OZ

    Abreu – cheap, but not sure he would have been great in the clubhouse.

    Amaro’s grade is on pause until we see what Ibanez does.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    As a whole, I never wanted to see Abreu back… but I just wished we would’ve given Ibañez a much smaller deal. That was the first and only (hopefully) mistake by Amaro this offseason.

     
  • Posts: 0 JohnKruksLoveChild

    Thome had a lot more heart then Abreu ever did, and honestly, I wasn’t sad to see Bobby go. No regrets there, imo.

     
  • Posts: 0 MS

    its the burrell deal that has me sad. i think we would have all been happy with burrell at 2/16 versus this ibanez deal. oh well.

    wfc.

     
  • Posts: 0 Maverick

    Amaro made a rookie mistake. Hopefully Ibanez doesn’t turn out to be another overpaid bum like Adam Eaton.

    If so we need to kick Amaro out of town… he has a lot riding on Ibanez

     
  • Posts: 0 uguethurbina

    I think the cubs were also looking at Ibanez right when he signed him. Somebody would have signed him had we not.. maybe not for quite as much, but still what would now be considered “overpaid.”

    I know I would be less than thrilled with abreu, dunn, griffey or any of the others left as part of our starting OF. Well, except manny.. but really for the price and the headaches I don’t know that he’s even worth it…

    Basically it was either pat or raul… Rather then wait it out, rube went for what seemed to be the best fit for these phillies.. and as long as Ibañez plays well, and the team does well, none of us will even still be talking about his contract at all..

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    If the phillies would of offered ibanez a smaller deal or waited for the price to go down, he would of signed with the mets. yeah it looks like you overpayed for him, but at the time, he was being looked at by a multiple of teams, so he was going to take the best contract available and that was the phillies. Abreu got a 1 year contract for a reason, hes a decent hitter, not clutch, no heart, and no leadership. His best attribute is getting down 0-2 and working a walk.

     
  • Posts: 0 James Fayleez

    Is this blog seriously touting Bobby Abreu’s numbers? And worrying about what we paid Ibanez?

    Abreu is a loser who puts up stats when they don’t matter. Ibanez? I don’t know about him yet.

    As far as what he gets paid? Who gives an S?

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    Tim you’re basing these stats great but the one thing you didn’t factor in is the fact that Abreu hit in a stacked Yankee lineup where he wasn’t a player who was depended on to get the big hit. Ibanez is a player who was their main hitter in Seattle so those numbers are slightly different when you compare the players hitting around Abreu with the players hitting around Ibanez the numbers don’t look as bad. Put Ibanez in the Phillies lineup where he just has to mop up what Utley and Howard can’t bring in and all his numbers get better.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    We all like Burrelll cause he’s a home grown player.. and despite getting booed all the time and stuff he always said how much he liked the fans.

    I liked him as a person/player

    But a guy with a .257 career average, that gets taken out of games in the 7th innings isn’t valuable to your team on the field.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    If Ibanez, Bradley, and Dunn all got $10 M a year… Burrell got $8… I would say that Abreu was underpaid, more than that we overpaid for Ibanez..

     
  • Posts: 0 MS

    will we see the defensive replacement for ibanez late in games? i don’t think he’s an upgrade over burrell in the field.

     
  • Posts: 0 tim

    Burrell is awsome, I will miss him. Ibanez has the potential to be awsome with this team, and if he is, I will be glad that he has the contract to keep him happy and keep him here. This team rules!

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Ibanez is a terrible fielder and will need to be replaced late in games.

     
  • Posts: 0 Carl

    They can have Abreu at any price. He is a cancer. we are way better off without him. We overpaid for Ibanez that is true. We just hope he puts up the numbers we expect. I think he will. Can’t wait for Spring Training….

     
  • Posts: 0 Joe Salerno

    We’ve seen enough of Bobby Abreu. The definition of how to win is Larry Bowa, Pete Rose, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. The definition of how to play for numbers, not hit a wall and not do what it takes to win is Bobby Abreu. I’m not sure about Ibanez but team chemistry would take a significant hit downward with Abreu as soon as he started waving at the wall and let catchable balls go for doubles.

     
  • Posts: 0 bdunf

    We are way better off without the Bobby Abreu experience……been there done that. Ibanez might be a bit high but can’t be too critical of this off season.

    On a different note looking at espn and other sites…..didn’t the Phillies win the world series. I know the whole world is all A Rod all the time now but looking back at this off season, has there been a champion that got less attention nationally?

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    Lets see what Ibanez does in the best lineup in the NL. Also lets see what he does on a winning team, when was the last time this guy played in the playoffs? A winning attitude from this team, but elevate this guys game even more. And any1 that says this guys a terrible fielder? Have you watched him play an entire season or are you basing it on what “experts” say, come on people, give your own thoughts, not what Steve Phillips said on espn or something. The guy cannot be worse then Burrell in the field, and Burrell never killed us in the field, so why is anyone worried about his defense? Stop Nit-Picking

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    “when was the last time this guy played in the playoffs?”
    Ibanez was on the 2000 Mariners and went 3 for 17 with 3 singles. If Bobby Abreu had done that, Phillies fans would murder him, but Ibanez did that with someone else, so it’s ok.

     
  • Posts: 0 Scott B

    I’ll be willing to pay more for Ibanez if he has heart.

    I’ve had this conversation many times but its a proven fact that whatever team Abreu is on, they lose. Guy has no heart/balls. Too nonchalant and that irks way to many people.

    I’ll continue being happy for Ibanez until he proves me wrong. the core of our team is back and I thank Amaro for that

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    It was his first playoff appearence, remind me how Utley, Howard, and Rollins hit in their first playoff series against the Rockies…

    I just don’t understand why people are already killing the dude when spring training hasn’t even started yet, give the man a chance, all he wants to do is win and produce, god damn

     
  • Posts: 0 Mark

    who cares what they spend. I dont care as long as they win. I dont go to games because I would need a second mortgage. Watch them free on tv. I can eat 2 hot dogs for 1.50 and not 15.00 dollars with some ugly chick giving me crap burnt dogs with no smile and making me use a debit card…I hate the ballparks.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Griffin, show Kev those animated images/mini-videos with Ibañez throwing the ball….

     
  • Posts: 0 reddeath

    i kinda like that everyone in the media is bashing this deal. maybe it will give ibanez extra motivation to prove himself.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Kev, in regards to Ibanez’s terrible defense, I’m basing it on the fact that no one ever has said that he’s not a horrible fielder. Maybe a 37 year old will find the fountain of youth and will discover newfound range out in LF, or maybe he’ll be what he’s been for years-a terrible fielder.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Manny, I’m trying to find that clip, it’s hilarious. If you find it, link it.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    I agree with what you just said Scott B. But 5M extra for heart is pretty expensive. We got him expensive, but I’m excited to see him contribute to our team and bring a professional attitude to our ball club.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    My friend for Washington State (who has seen Ibanez play multiple times) says that Ibañez is a terrible fielder, but not that much worse than Burrell.

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    Its Left Field people, he doesn’t need to be Willy Mays, just catch the routine ones, and get the ball in quick.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    SO lets say that they are both bad in the field, and would both be replaced late in games..

    wouldn’t you rather have the guy that hits closer to .300 than the guy that hits closer to .250 for those 7 innings of every game?

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Fair enough Kev, but let’s not go around saying “have you watched an entire season or are you basing it on what experts say”. Ibanez is a terrible fielder and so was Burrell. Ibanez is a DH who has to play LF this year much like Burrell was a DH playing LF last year who gets to DH this year.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    This probably is his worst play ever, so let’s not think he’ll be doing this with the Phils. But it’s still hilarious.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    nice job Manny, I couldn’t find it for some reason.

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    Why do you keep saying terrible? Im not positive but Burrell didnt make more than 1 or 2 errors last year and was in the tops in assists all year from outfielders, so why are they terrible? I think Burrell was smart in the field because he knew what he could and couldn’t do, if he couldn’t get to the spot, he would get the ball in quickly, he wouldn’t trying diving like others. But 8/10 he got to the spot, and made the catch. Its also helpful to have Victorino in CF who will play more to LF knowing that the defender isn’t strong.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Burrell was a terrible fielder because he had no range and couldn’t get to balls that most fielders would catch. Every fielding metric has Burrell and Ibanez at the bottom for outfielders.
    You are right about the fact that LF and RF are the most unimportant defensive positions on the field, but let’s not go around proclaiming Ibanez to be a defensive upgrade from Burrell because he’s not. They’re both awful out there.

     
  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Though to Kev’s credit, Burrell had a pretty good year as a fielder. He had good outfield assists and played smart. But that doesn’t hide his overall career fielding skills, which suck.

     
  • Posts: 0 Kev

    Im not saying hes an upgrade by no means, hes prolly the same as Burrell, but what im trying to get through to you is, being “awful” in the field is booting balls that get through the infield to you, dropping easy pop flies, not communicating with other fielders and running into them. They don’t want Burrell/Ibanez to be running around like a mad man, making diving catches, roaming into Vic and J-Roll territory. I wouldn’t call them terrible because they know what they can and can’t do. Terrible/Awful would be like Dunn dropping balls right to him, etc. So he’s awful because he doesn’t have the range that YOU think every LF should have? Lets see you get out their with the pressure to read the ball off the bat, get to a spot, and catch it with 45 thousand screaming and at your back.

     
  • Posts: 0 Maverick

    Manny – Any chance you have the video of Burrell last year attempting to dive for a ball and eating dirt…then falling over after ying to get up and losing his glove? That was a classic!

     
 
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