Ibanez Deal Tough To Swallow After Abreu Inks
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, February 12, 2009 07:25 AM | Comments: 190
Issues, Posts
If Ruben Amaro has made one mistake in the offseason, it was committing so early and so much money to Raul Ibanez. Two months after signing Ibanez to a three-year, $31.5 million contract, the Angels nabbed Bobby Abreu for the discounted terms of one year and $5 million.
Bobby Abreu: seven 100+ RBI seasons in eight years; eight 20-20 seasons; a career .300 average; a .405 on-base percentage.
Hey, Phillie fans know full well about Abreu, considering he’s one of the franchise’s greatest players. So it’s difficult to fathom that while Ibanez, a 36-year-old outfielder, got two more years and $26 million more than Abreu, a 33-year-old outfielder … who has better numbers.
Let’s look at their 2008 numbers, comparatively:
AB/H/Average
Ibanez: 635/186/.293
Abreu: 609/180/.296HR/RBI/Slugging
Ibanez: 23/110/.479
Abreu: 20/100/.471BB/SO/On-Base
Ibanez: 64/110/.358
Abreu: 73/109/.371R/SB/OPS+
Ibanez: 85/2/124
Abreu: 100/22/120
Very, very similar. While Ibanez has a tad more power, Abreu has a tad more on-base skills. We know what Abreu will give a team — walks, singles and doubles, good speed. We’re not as sure with Ibanez, but from his numbers, we can tell he has above-average power and doubles ability. And consistency, right? Ruben Amaro Jr. stressed Ibanez’s consistency as one of the reasons he was sought instead of the plateau-and-valley Pat Burrell.
But a look at Ibanez’s 2008 gamelogs show he’s actually not unbelievably consistent. His season started strong with an OPS above .900. But that dipped below .800 by late May, mainly because of his slugging, and he wouldn’t get back above .800 until late July. So while it’s a two-month dip, it is a dip, and it’s the same kind of dip we’ve seen from Burrell, whose OPS first went below .900 in September. He suffered a two-month lull that lasted until his very last at bat as a Phillie, in game five of the World Series.
Abreu, meanwhile, fit himself in the .810s quickly. He had a couple weeks where his OPS slid into the .760s at worst, but it always regained into the .800s, mainly because no matter what, he’d find a way on base. Moreover, Abreu hit .800 on July 26 and never saw below it again, riding a hot final two months to an OPS that rested at .842, five points higher than Ibanez.
This isn’t to say Abreu was a better choice for the outfield than Ibanez. But all the sticking points that made Ibanez so desirable actually look better with Abreu. He’s just as consistent a hitter (and more consistent getting on base) than Ibanez (imagine Abreu getting on base a lot for Utley and Howard). He’s better on the basepaths and proabably similar in the field. He understands Philadelphia and is familiar with the clubhouse. He would have known he was coming in as a leader or a star, but a fine complimentary piece.
And those lefty splits that make Ibanez so great? While Ibanez is a career .268 hitter with a .733 OPS against lefties, Abreu is a career .280 hitter with a .776 OPS against lefties.
Amaro wanted his man and got his man, despite probably overpaying and over-reading the market early. Here’s hoping it works out — but hopefully he knows there were options that might have been just as good (if not better) and at a much, much cheaper price.
Posts: 0 Tim Malcolm
I think if there’s one issue I didn’t mention (and someone brought it up), it’s that Abreu was with the Yankees, who scored 100 more runs than the lowly Mariners. So maybe Abreu’s run-producing numbers are lessened, but not too much, if he’s averaged out with Ibanez.
Everything else is pretty static.
Posted: 02:11 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
This situation is easy with hindsight…we paid too much for Ibanez if you look at it now.
But I say lets give this guy a chance.He might gell better with our hitters,have more opportunities for RBI.He might really fit in well.
Having more of a contact type hitter than Burrell will be welcome if he does in fact put it in play more.
As for Abreu,he was never coming back here.I’m convinced of that.I believe that the front office had their fill back when he played here.
Posted: 02:40 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Craig
What you failed to factor in is how many runs Abreu gives up in the field. He’s a great DH, but that’s about it. I couldn’t bear to watch him in the field. Just horrendous.
Posted: 02:45 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
By the numbers… sure, Abreu is great and the Angels got a great deal but bringing back Abreu is as likely as signing JD Drew.
One question though: if Abreu is that good, why didn’t the Yankees re-sign him? For that matter, why did no one want him? Ibanez was a high-value commodity. Abreu is a first-round draft pick in fantasy baseball… but he’s not the guy that I want in this clubhouse. Not now, not ever.
He’s a below average fielder that puts up hollow numbers. I can’t justify it with numbers but it didn’t take long for the Yankees to figure it out. He’s just doesn’t have it and some things aren’t quantifiable…
The other day on 610, Rube said that he thinks that change is really important… I thought that was interesting. Almost like he was conceding that Burrell might not have been a bad option for us in LF but that the change was necessary for the clubhouse to keep moving forward. I still think that Ibanez is an upgrade over Burrell and Abreu. Maybe he’s not worth the amount he’s owed but this is where I’ll take my place as a fan… I just bought my 17 game plan and I want the best product on the field. Ibanez is the best LF we could have gotten.
Posted: 03:02 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 PhxPhilly
I really think it was Burrell or Ibanez or filler.
Bradley – too hurt, Charlie might be able handle ‘effort’ issues but why bother
Dunn – just like Howard (would be okay if we were to trade Howard)
Abreu – not the right message to the team
Burrell – must have had some team issue why they really wanted someone else
Ibanez – good hitter, old, still best on AL team
I really do not have much issue with the $10/yr. But 2 yr deal with 3rd option would have been much safer. Ibanez in year 3 could be a Jenkins of last year.
My preference would have been filler then use the extra $$ for a stud SP. CBP is still a known hitters park. It will always be more difficult to sign Free Agent pitchers than hitters, especially with Manuel being considered a hitters friend. So the chances of us getting a good ‘filler’ are better than other teams.
Posted: 03:04 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I don’t understand why people fail to see the career .257 average as the most likely reason the Phillies wanted a new Left Fielder…
Plain and Simple, they wanted someone more reliable…
Posted: 03:13 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Thanks for the info on Ibañez, metsblow4show.
Posted: 03:17 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Don M, why is batting average the key stat? OBP and SLG are much better barometers of a hitter’s value. You want to get on base and get extra base hits.
If BA was reliable, then Juan PIerre was one of the best hitters of the decade.
Posted: 03:40 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
The last thing I’ll say is that Burrell walked in 16% of his plate apperances last year and CBP had the highest % of runners scoring in the majors. His .257 BA doesn’t look good, but his .367 OBP and .507 SLG does.
Posted: 03:42 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Getting HITS, isn’t the most important thing as a HITTER ????
Getting on base is great and all.. but when you are the #5 ..(wait for it).. HITTER on your team, and you don’t HIT the ball and drive in runs like other guys do, then you aren’t as good as them..
Tell me that you are satisfied with Burrell’s career here, and I would say that you are a liar
Posted: 03:57 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I understand that point you are trying to make, but there are reasons why HITS, and Batting Average are stats that people care about… and they win you awards and people follow who has the highest or the most in their careers.
Ask anyone who has the highest career SLG%, or the best OBP% in their career and see if anyone has any idea, or cares at all
Posted: 04:05 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
SLG is a made-up stat, that relies on how many bases you get per hit, so guys that hit HRs get 4x 4bases, a single gets you 1x 1base
its a stat, made up for the sake of it, whereas Hits, RBIs, and Batting Average are well known to be the better reflections of a talented hitter..
Getting on Base does help your team win games.. but not from the #5 spot in the order, from a guy that is paid to drive in runs
SLG is fine but makes guys like Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, and Carlos Delgado seem like better hitters than Chase Utley, Magglio Ordonez, and Alfonso Soriano
so it all depends on how you want to look at it
Posted: 04:13 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Don M, Utley had a .380 OBP and a .526 SLG last year. That’s why he’s the best 2B in baseball.
He hit .292, Placido Polanco hit .307, so I guess Polanco is better since he gets more HITS.
Posted: 04:21 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Brooks
did I say that?
Posted: 04:23 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
The top 5 OPS’s (which is OBP + SLG) of all-time:
1. Babe Ruth
2. Ted Williams
3. Lou Gehrig
4. Barry Bonds
5. Albert Pujols
Top 5 BA of all-time:
1. Ty Cobb
2. Rogers Hornsby
3. Joe Jackson
4. Lefty O’Doul
5. Ed Delahanty
You can take the BA guys, I’ll take the OPS guys.
Posted: 04:26 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 metsblow4show
Your Welcome, Manny !
Posted: 04:27 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Hornsby was filthy!
Posted: 04:31 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
What about Shoeless Joe?!
Third highest BA of all-time and he’s not in the hall.
Posted: 04:33 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Ibanez hit .043 higher than Burrell last year, which is even bigger when one of them flirts with .300, the other .250
If Burrell was even closer to .275 i’d like him more
Posted: 04:35 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Ty, Roger(s) with an “s”… and Lefty…. great names
I seriously understand your point, and we can both find stats and lists and numbers to back ourselves up..
But it comes down to needing or wanting a more reliable RBI man, and someone who can keep innings alive… Burrell wasn’t that.. Im glad he was still here when we won the World Series, and he had some key hits to help us, but Im not sad that he’s gone
Posted: 04:38 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Well, we’re back to our old argument of OPS vs. BA. I think the players are similar, but Ibanez is 4 1/2 years older, more costly, left-handed, and cost a draft pick.
And before you even say it, yes I know that only 30% (your stat, but I trust your accuracy) of 1st rounders ever play in the Majors.
Ibanez should do well his first year or so here, but that 3rd year of his deal is scary. Amaro overpaid, but these things happen.
Any word on Will Ohman?
Posted: 04:40 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
I chimed in late so I couldn’t read all 1100+ comments, but Abreau was a cancer IMO. Sure, maybe we over payed, but I don’t want a 3 slot hitter looking to walk in the 8th and 9th inning and he was unwilling to bat #2 or #1. The yankees have improved big time by subtraction of Abreau just like the Phillies did.
Posted: 04:41 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 christopher
no matter what the circumstances, i never want to see abreu in a phillies uniform again.
Posted: 04:43 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 psujoe
Also, the Angels would’ve been after Ibanez after missing on Tex. keep in mind no way Pat signs in Tampa if the Phils didn’t fill their OF needs. Who knows, once Tex signed Ibanez and Burrell may have gotten more.
Posted: 04:45 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 ryan
i disagree. i’d rather have Ibanez any day.
Posted: 04:53 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 NateB
Ibanez will fit way better in the clubhouse than Abreu, and we’ll see how their numbers compare in the next 3 seasons, but they’ll probably be similar.
Posted: 04:58 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I’m not even sure what the exact % of that is.. that was the number sticking in my head, I think it was from the day we were talking about the Johan Santana trade, and what the Twins got in return vs. what they would have in draft picks..
but whatever the rate is, its low… 30% even seems high to me..
Here is the top 5 OFs in Batting Avg last year:
Milton Bradley .321
Matt Holliday .321
Magglio Ordonez .317
Lance Berkman .312
Ichiro .311
Here is the top 5 OFs in On-base plus Slugging (OPS):
Milton Bradley .999
Lance Berkman .986
Ryan Ludwick .966
Carlos Quentin .965
Matt Holliday .947
……………….
Top 5 OFs in RBIs:
Josh Hamilton -130
Manny -121
Ryan Ludwick -113
Carlos Beltran -112
Raul Ibanez – 110
…(Burrell -86)
Top 5 OFs in Hits:
Ichiro -213
Josh Hamilton -190
Raul Ibanez -186
Alex Rios -185
Randy Winn -183
…(Burrell -134)
Posted: 05:00 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Damn, Milton Bradley had a great year last year, didn’t he? Too bad he can’t stay healthy, as the Cubs will soon find out.
Posted: 05:02 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
I cant believe you guys are arguing over two completely made up stats, in OPS and Slugging %, lol Hits, RBIs and Runs Scored are what matters, so therefore id have to agree with Don.
Posted: 05:12 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Aren’t all stats made up?
Posted: 05:13 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Im not even trying to “win” any arguements… I just think people seriously overvalue what Burrell did or does
And Hamilton is a beast, Ludwick (Can he repeat those numbers???? I have him in a fantasy keeper-league, but don’t know if I trust him)
and Lance Berkman is the most underrated player in all of baseball!
Posted: 05:17 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
Hits RBIs and Runs scored arent now are they? They are main components of the game where OPS and Slug % are, who gives a fu*k about that crap, half the people that watch the game probably don’t even understand what the hell that means. Like OPS, .996 what the hell does that mean? .996 what? lol its all bullshit to me. The BA make sense, hits, RBIs, HRs, and Runs Scored make sense.
Posted: 05:18 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I think stats that require crazy formulas… are made up
I like Hits, RBIs, HRs, Runs, Steals, SB, errors, etc.
BUT.. ERA is more accurate than WINS for a picther, so what is the most accurate for a hitter..?
its all made up.. its all a game… and its all good. fa sho.
Posted: 05:22 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Don M, I agree about Berkman, he is really, really good.
Kev, if you don’t like the stats, then fine, but you shouldn’t dismiss them as nonsense just because you don’t understand them.
Posted: 05:23 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Fa sho indeed.
BA is the % of times you get a hit
OBP is the % of times you get on base
There, now that wasn’t so hard!
Posted: 05:24 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
But since hits are usually more productive than walks… I consider Batting Average THAT much more important than On-Base Percentage
as we go in circles..
yo Griffin… I like that you aren’t a cyber-tough guy and freaking out.. and that you can have a legit debate about things.. good stuff
Posted: 05:29 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
I just disagree with your assessment on determining if one player is better than other based on OPS and Slug %, it should be what the game actually invovles, Hits, RBIs, Runs, SB, errors, etc.
So people might value Burrell because he gets on base 16% of the time via walk. Well if he walks soooo much, and is average is still .250, that makes his average look extremely worse since the walk doesn’t count as an at bat, there fore when he gets hits, it would raise his average cause he walks that much. But obviously, Burrell didn’t have the hits to make the average and walks both look good.
Basically to me, if your walking 100+ times a year, your average should benefit extremely from that. But Burrell still only batted .250, which is amazing to me. Imagine if Burrell didn’t walk 100+ times, his average would be down at like .230
Posted: 05:30 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
would Batting Average + OPS (on base + slugging percentages) be the ultimate stat???
Posted: 05:33 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
What I will say is that there are no one or two statistics to measure how good a player is. If someone presented me with different statistics that I could use to formulate my opinion of a player, then great.
Stats are not the perfect measure of a player, there are many things (clubhouse character, clutch ability, etc.) that are immeasurable. So I basically try to read up all I can and gather up all the stats I can find to try to evaluate a player.
Don M, good stuff as well.
Posted: 05:34 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
But am i crazy about what i said about Burrell? I want to hear what you guys think, (and disregard if you like the guy, because i think hes the man) about my assesment on Burrell
Posted: 05:36 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
good point, while OPS measures the difference between a walk and a double or a walk and a home run, it is unable to measure the difference between a walk and a single.
So if there were a man on 2nd base, a walk would not score him, but a single might, and that is not reflected in OPS.
congrats Don M, you just found a hole in the stat. I still like the stat, but like I said, it’s not perfect-no stat is.
Posted: 05:37 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
My opinion of Burrell change a lot when I first started looking at stats that encompass getting on base. Quite frankly, I was surprised by how much more valuable he was as opposed to my original opinion of him.
I think Phillies fans got on Burrell for what he was not-a 40 HR, athletic, .285ish hitter, instead of appreciating him for what he was-an on base machine, with good pop who kills LHP.
Also, it would help if Burrell’s OBP was accompanied by the ability to run the bases with any degree of semi-speed, but that wasn’t the case with Pat the Bat.
Posted: 05:40 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
I believe that people had high expectations for him since he was the 1st overall pick, and his big rookie year.
Posted: 05:45 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Very true, the fact that he was the 1st overall pick led to great expectations. He was never a great player, but he was a good, solid player during his tenure with the Phils.
Posted: 05:47 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
Very true, and he probably pounded mad beers after games.
Posted: 05:48 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
LOL, I think he did alright with the women of Philadelphia from what I hear.
Posted: 05:51 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
I take that back, he might of pounded beers during the games
Posted: 05:55 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
Well, I think the word “stat” appears about 1000 times on this thread, you boys and your stats and fantasy baseball! I don’t play, so most of these OBPSPD.. is just so much fluff to me. I understand the basic ones, but these newer ones just make my head buzz. Now, of course, since I’m a “girl”, I tend to go more with gut feelings and, yes, my heart. Ironically, two nights ago I had a very vivid dream about Pat Burrell(no, not like that!). I was standing in right field(??) of a dark, dank stadium, and Pat walked out of a door in the wall. I had one of my WS sweatshirts on, and he came over and gave me a big hug. I told him how much we missed him, that we really needed him back. He had tears in his eyes, and said he missed Philly and the fans and his teammates so much. We were talking about ways to get him back, and then the dream starts to fade, except the last thing I remember I was feeling his leg(!!!???) and told him it was really hard. Then I woke up!
YIKES! I was not thrilled when we let him go, I hope Ibanez is ok, but I just have this feeling there was alot more to Pat than his bat.
Posted: 06:07 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 Kev
….strange…
Posted: 06:10 PM on February 12, 2009
Posts: 0 KM
I would gladly pay the extra 2 million per year for a better clubhouse guy like Ibanez.
Posted: 06:13 PM on February 12, 2009