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Phillies Face Daunting Task With Late Draft Start

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Tue, February 24, 2009 10:31 AM | Comments: 22
Issues, Posts

Chuck Hixson of Scout.com wrote about the Phillies 2009 draft possibilities. They’re not promising. While the execution of the piece is off (you’re always taking a chance no matter when you draft), the crux is correct: The Phillies will have a difficult time finding impact players in the draft because they don’t pick until the 80th overall pick.

For those scoring at home, by signing Type A free agent Raul Ibanez, the Phillies lost their first round draft pick. And by not offering Pat Burrell arbitration, they lost a possible first-round pick.

So now the Phils start at No. 80. It doesn’t quite help the future of the franchise, which will need to be thought about once 2012 rolls around. That’s why the 2009 draft is important – a player or two from that draft could be major league ready by 2012. If anything, the Phillies will have to think about opening their draft with college-graduated players who can work through the system quickly. They won’t have to think about signing above slot – they paid draftees much more in 2008 than ever (like with first rounder Anthony Hewitt), breaking slot a few times. So while the ’09 strategy seems to be conservative in setup, the Phils will need to think aggressively when their time comes, or else the future will have yet more glaring holes.

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Tim Malcolm has written 1947 articles on Phillies Nation.

 
 
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    Baseball America rated 4 Phils in the Top 100 Prospects. #48 – Dominic Brown, #52 – Carlos Carrasco, #66 – Lou Marson, and #69 – Jason Donald. Good things for the Phils system, usually we’re lucky to get 1 or even 2 prospects on that list.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I was surprised that Brown is that highly regarded but they dont project hell be ready until like 2011. Michael Taylor was NOT in the Top 100. Donald, Carrasco, and Marson are all projected to arrive/be ready for the majors in 2009 which we knew already. The good news that with those guys there are three right handed hitting reenforcements able to come up if they are needed.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck P

    The draft is such a crap shoot… we couldn’t offer Burrell arbitration because he would have accepted it. We’ll be fine. In 2012, we’ll have a ton of money to play with in the FA market and hopefully, a few of our young touted prospects will be MLB ready (including Hewitt). Signing high-ceiling HS prospects makes sense, in hindsight. Those players take longer to develop so our farm should be on the rise in 2011. Losing out on a first round pick because of Raul Ibanez is not that big of a deal… this year’s draft is not that big of a deal. We don’t want to spend a lot of money in this year’s draft… right now, a lot of money is tied up in the present.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff

    I would agree about this draft not being overly important, this just adds another thing to the list that we gave up for Ibanez besides overpaying. Hope he is worth it.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    The Phils need to be more direct in addressing potential needs, the organisation does a good job of stock-piling talent but does a poor job of grooming heir-apparents and getting guys up into support roles. The Phils really need to decided whether they are going to target top-tier talent or guys with a lower ceiling but the expectation they can produce in the bigs, aiming for athletes and arms without specific purpose and expectation isn’t paying off.

    I think more than this year that last years draftees will the most important. The Phils did a really good job of picking some guys up in the mid-rounds that could be part of this teams future.

     
  • Posts: 0 Matt Kwasiborski

    Here, here NJ! I will trade another WS title for a #1 draft pick this year. I spent the 1990s or my teen- early 20s building for the future. And the future is now.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    The Phils need to raise up a level in their drafting habbits. It’s not luck that teams like the Braves, Cubs, Angels and Red Sox continually have sucess in the draft, they draft with authority with their money picks and they also find guys who can fit roles.

    It’s no coincidence the teams who tend to draft well are always within reach of making a run at the title. winning doesn’t mean you mail it in for a window, it means you stand up with the big boys and get ahead of the curve rather than hedging your bets.

     
  • [...] Phillies first draft pick is very low and there will be slim pickins by the time they choose.  Good thing the farm system is growing well, now maybe we can survive what [...]

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    The Phils minor league system now is hurt by signing players in the past (Thome, David Bell, Tom Gordon) who cost the Phillies first round draft picks.

    Given the Phillies’ track record from the last few years (Burrell, Hamels, Floyd, Myers, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Utley, Cardenas, Donald, Taylor, Brown, Marson, D’Arnaud) I’d say that they’ve done an excellent job in the draft but losing a 1st round pick makes their job that much tougher.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    The Phils have been very hit and miss around and since drafting Cole early on in the draft, I think it is harder for prospects to progress through the system here and its been a cycle of ‘great tools but not good enough enough for the show’. The current scouting system has done a great job of identifying major league talent after the money guys but, the 1st round picks need to improve.

    There’s been so much talent in the 1st round recently and the Phils need to make progress with the money picks and not be afraid to invest in prospects. Of course loosing 1st round picks hurt but the Phils have had their share of compensation picks but we need to start getting guys up to avoid the kind of payroll hitting stop-gaps we’ve seen too many of and it starts with Jason Donald.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck P

    “I will trade another WS title for a #1 draft pick this year. I spent the 1990s or my teen- early 20s building for the future. And the future is now.”

    YESSSIIRRRRRR…

    Rebuilding is no fun… not even a little bit. Being competitive year after year without glory is amusing but unfulfilling and winning a championship is worth a dozen first-round picks. Winning a championship is what it’s all about and now that we’ve been there, I wouldn’t trade that experience for anything. Right now, the only thing that matters is winning another one.

    It has brought a different energy level to this team and this city… it changes your perspective, doesn’t it? We were selling out games last season but there’s just something different in 2009. Your pride is elevated when you win a championship and I can’t wait to be a part of that again.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    The draft isn’t about re-building like it is in the NFL. The Phils do one thing well in player recruitment and development in finding guys past the money picks but there must be improvements in either finding guys abroad or finding a way to sign 1st round talent, it’s not re-development since the teams that draft the best tend to be winning teams with money outside of the Fish and Twins.

     
  • Posts: 0 Chuck P

    I’m not saying that the draft is about rebuilding… I’m just saying that we have been through all of those phases and now that we’re at the apex, I would like to stay here for…ever. Drafting is important and they need to do a good job of finding talent that will fit in but now that we’re here, trying to repeat, I won’t be upset about giving up a first round pick for a guy that is going to help this team get there again.

     
  • Posts: 0 From Section 113

    The 2009 MLB Draft will be one of the worst in a while. Scouts and BA were predicting ONLY some 20 players worthy of 1st round selection. If you include the 1st rd supplemental, there will be 42 1st round selections. Its not a strong draft and while college arms seem like they will dominate, we need positional players.

    I think some people worry too much on the loss of a 1st round talent. If we sign 1 or 2 top international players and net severallate big names out of highschool, maybe we actually have a good draft. We need to just wait and see. I remember years where we had a 1st round pick and didn’t do all that well, so by no means does having one insure us of a good draft.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    To be fair to the Phillies, in the last few years, they’ve been picking near the bottom of the 1st round, not at the top where they nabbed Hamels, Burrell and Floyd.
    Of course not having a 1st round pick does not necessarily insure a bad draft, but it certainly doesn’t help.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    re: the international signing, the Phillies have de-emphasized international scouting (especially Latin America) and have concentrated on the draft in the last few years. There are not many international prospects outside of Carlos Carrasco and a few marginal Australians in the system.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Pat Burrell was 1st overall, Floyd 4th overall. Cole 17th and Golson 21st overall. Two of the top 3 rated prospects in Colby Rasmus and Tommy Hanson 22nd were drafted 28th and 22nd respectively. There’s talent all the way through the 1st round.

    Don’t mean to be combative with anyone here, I think we all agree the Phils have done well in the draft but now needs to identify a talent pool like the best drafting teams do.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    Whoops, I forgot that Cole was 17th overall. My bad on that one.

     
  • Posts: 0 From Section 113

    Carlos RUiz/Carrasco/Naylor/Naughton/Harmna/DeFratus/Garcia are all international signnings.

    Another “Carrasco” type signning would be huge as well as a few of the”Cosart” type since we don’t have a 1st rounder.

    Look at the late rounds of past drafts people. You’ll see mnay highly rated players who don’t sign in rounds 30+ who end up top round picks in 4 yrs.

     
  • Posts: 0 Griffin

    I found an article on Baseball Prospectus about the draft. I would link it, but it’s an insider article which you have to pay for.

    Basically it states that 90% of top 5 overall picks makes it to the majors, but only about 45-55% of picks 25 through 30 overall make it to the majors. The odds of the 80th pick overall making the majors is about 35%.

    I’d love for another Cosart signing, but I’m worried that more and more teams are realizing the value of building through the draft and are paying overslot money to get the best players (David Price, Eric Hosmer, Pedro Alvarez) so less talent is being left to the big spenders than in previous years (Porcello to the Tigers, Joba to the Yankees, etc.)

    Hopefully the Phillies will use the money saved from not having a 1st round pick and use it to sign overslot guys in the later rounds.

     
  • Posts: 0 John Fire

    “It’s no coincidence the teams who tend to draft well are always within reach of making a run at the title. winning doesn’t mean you mail it in for a window, it means you stand up with the big boys and get ahead of the curve rather than hedging your bets.”

    Um, we ARE one of those teams who are “always within reach of making a run at the title.” How can you think otherwise? We just won a WFC, we’ve been in the playoff hunt for years… and our core is home grown. The truth is, the Phillies HAVE drafted quite well. A few busts, but every team has that. I’m not too worried. Our drafting habits are just fine, per previously stated WFC.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    Has anyone else noticed we have 3 Aussies currently on the active roster… Maybe there’s one area we are ahead of the curve.

     
 
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