Opinion: Remember This Word … ‘Precaution’
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, March 16, 2009 08:48 AM | Comments: 24
Opinion, Posts
A few weeks ago the Mets thought about sending Johan Santana to New York for an elbow examination. Because of a snowstorm, the Mets’ doctors came to him, and they found nothing was wrong with Santana’s elbow. He returned to pitching and is now set for his first start in 2009.
Fast forward a week or so, and Cole Hamels is now under the same light.
This is nothing new. Pitchers are examined all the time because of “soreness” or “tightness” or “something just doesn’t feel right.” Hamels hasn’t quite pitched his regular repertoire, and this revelation justifies that detail. There’s something wrong. There’s a kink in the armor. But it’s certainly nothing new.
And it’s probably nothing about which to be frightened. What’s the worst-case scenario? That doctors find something much worse and recommend reconstructive elbow surgery (Tommy John). But that scenario seems unlikely. What’s the best scenario? That the doctors see nothing that would justify an MRI, Hamels returns to Florida and tracks himself for opening night.
What’s the likely scenario? Probably a precautionary MRI. Then a precautionary rest. Then precautionary sessions. A precautionary push back to the start of his season. Precaution, precaution, precaution.
It’s March 16 and no way would the Phillies want to exhaust their ace already. Last season was trying for Hamels, as he threw more than 270 innings between the regular season and postseason. Add spring numbers and he threw for more than 300 innings. Now, factor that into a left-handed youngster with injury history whose numbers rapidly increased by season, and there is certainly reason to take every “soreness,” every “tightness” and every “something just doesn’t feel right” with precaution. To wit, this is the reason there won’t be a Tommy John surgery.
Hamels should be fine, General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. Most in the front office agree, and think sending Hamels to Philadelphia is just to keep him entrenched in reality. And if Hamels has to sit for a week or a few, the Phils have a sound rotation for a while — JA Happ and Chan Ho Park are pitching the best baseball for the Phils this spring; giving them both rotation spots to start wouldn’t be such a bad thing. And letting Brett Myers take the reins as ace for a few weeks also would help his psyche.
In all, the Phillies are prepared for these things.
That’s why they make precautionary measures. Like this one.
Posts: 0 sam
ok
Posted: 08:51 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Agreed…Id even be ok with a suggested start date of April 16 for him, just to be on teh safe side, which has already been proposed…no need to rush the guy back before hes ready.
Posted: 09:10 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Good Night Joe Carter
Tim, I think your analysis is right on the mark. I’d rather have Cole miss a couple starts early in the year to make sure he’s at 100% than have him miss key starts later in the year because they didn’t take the proper precautions.
Additionally, this could provide a good opportunity to resolve the Park/Happ competition by having them both start the season in the starting rotation. They are both pitching great at this point and are earning the opportunity.
Posted: 09:14 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Andrew R.
Right on. When i saw he was going to see the doctor i thought about happ and park getting some big-time starts at the beginning of the season. i think park can be good as a starter for a little bit, but i dont think he’s good for 30+ starts, this will be good for him, happ, hamels, and the team.
Posted: 09:28 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Gavin
It is not surpising and as we all know, its usually not the quality of the team that prevents teams from repeating, its the injuries. Thats just the way it is. I’d err on the side that this will be an injury riddled season, but what makes me somewhat optmistic is that the Phillies seem to have enough depth this year to maybe hang in there.
Posted: 09:32 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Havoc
Where’s the nearest bridge… j/k
Gotta be careful with our Ace and I agree give him as much time as he needs to make sure he’s ready for September and the post season. This is one of the advantages that I think the Phils have is that they’ve got alot of depth particularly at pitching. To be honest i’m not to scared about the prospect of a Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Happ, Park Rotation for a few months, with our back up back ups being Carrassco and Kendrik.
This team has proven to be pretty resilient as Utley and Feliz are now on course for opening day. I’ve got faith that until we hear different Hamels will be fine. Of course saying a prayer, a few rabbits feet, and sacrificing a bull to Zeus couldn’t hurt…
Posted: 09:32 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeffrey
I agree but based on this team’s history of prevaricating about injuries, I’ll be dubious about the brass’s reassurances until I see Hamels back on the mound.
Posted: 09:41 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Whoa! Something the matter with Hamels? “Tightness”; “soreness” in the shoulder? Well.. on reflection, I should not have been surprised when considering Hamel’s history of injuries and his frailty. I agree that the Phillies management has no other choice but to take the “precautionary” approach with Hamels. However, to lose the most valuable “ace” in the rotation for any length of time is most discerning for the team (and all Phillies fans).
Posted: 09:47 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Jason B.
Thank you Tim for talking me off of the Walt Whitman. I was about to leap into the icy cold Delaware.
Posted: 09:58 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 John Fire
I’ll keep my fingers crossed.
Now, on a related note… pitchers are throwing less and less innings than in the past. Look at all the mega stars from history – or even the 90′s. As recent as the late 90′s, guys where throwing 10-15 complete games a year, topping 300 ip in the regular season. Look back even further and you’ve got guys making 40+ starts and throwing more than 400 IP. So why is it such a big deal for these guys – guys who are supposed to be bigger, better, stronger, faster and with access to state-of-the-art technology and medicine – to throw 200? To have a couple complete games? Seems crazy.
I’m not calling Cole a baby – I love the guy… it just seems like a league-wide thing. Somewhere, sometime, there was a change in philosophy, but I’m not sure why. It’s not like all those old guys were getting hurt or anything.
Posted: 10:10 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
This is Cole Hamels not Rich Harden or Mike Prior. Precaution is the perfect word, we all know he threw a ton of innings and this is our ace, this isn’t shelving him for the year, it’s making sure he can go when it really matters.
Posted: 10:19 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 BurrGundy
Tim, excellent analysis. This makes me really appreciate Robin Roberts, averaging 310 innings, 21 victories, for eight years (1950-1957). I love Hamels: I respect Roberts even more. My fingers are crossed for Cole.
Posted: 10:31 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 50 R.C. Cowie
john, tim here. these days guys are throwing way more via hs, college, jrs and minors. plus coaches screw with deliveries ad nauseum. no secret thats why guys throw less in the bigs these days. plus add stimulants and new treatments. the workhorse 300 ip guys are long gone
Posted: 10:40 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff
That was a pin point write up.
Thanks Tim
Posted: 10:46 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 John Fire
Thanks Tim. It just sparked my curiosity is all. You look back just a decade and you’ve got middling guys tossing 300 IP… crazy! Anyway, thanks for the input.
Posted: 11:08 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 CT
Cole Speaks!
http://www.delawareonline.com/blogs/2009/03/mar-16-hamels-speaks.html
“-Hamels described this whole thing as “not a big deal.” He said he feels this same soreness, or tightness, every year during spring training. Usually, though, it lasts only about 1-2 weeks. This year, it’s lingering, which is why he wants to see team physician Dr. Michael Ciccotti. Hamels says the decision to go back to Philly was made this morning, although it has been discussed for a few weeks.
“I think I am fine,” Hamels said. “I don’t think I have anything serious. It’s just that inflammation I have that I haven’t been able to get out of my body.”
-Hamels has been taking anti-inflammatory medication for a few weeks. He said it’s possible Ciccotti will recommend that he get a cortisone shot, which may ease the situation. “Not necessarily the worst-case, but maybe the best-case, is I may get a shot,” Hamels said. “I think that probably will help.”
-Unlike two years ago when an elbow strain sidelined Hamels for a month, he doesn’t feel any serious pain. Even when he plays catch, he said he’s pain-free. Today, in fact, Hamels did long-toss and took fielding practice with the other pitchers. He said the issue merely is tightness that he feels between innings and after he throws.”
Posted: 11:20 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I will admit that pitchers are coddled… overworked at a younger age and forced to back down if they reach the majors. I doubt that’s healthy but that’s what teams consider to be efficient. That’s what teams consider to be the best way to protect their investment. That’s what has changed… it’s not the velocity, not the rules of the game but the mindset of the game. Pitchers throw every 5th day (rather than every 4th), pinch hitters are brought in to help score runs and the game has added a position; a lefty/righty specialist. Back then, teams paid pitchers to throw 9 innings… that’s what guys were paid to do. It’s hard to fathom Cy Young’s 749 complete games… the most untouchable record in all of sports… Randy Johnson, the active leader, has 100 career complete games. That’s crazy but back then, the starters finished games and the pitchers were bred and fed to be workhorses… guys were lucky to have secondary pitches (the ones that really straing the elbows) let alone three pitches. Nowadays, pitchers don’t survive without a third pitch. It’s a great debate without a clear answer… you just have to accept the fact that times have changed. The winner is still the team with more runs on the board at the end of the game.
Posted: 11:29 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Fred
Good analyis, but please don’t try and spin it into a positive by getting Park and Happ both in the rotation. If Hamels missed any chunk of time it would SERIOUSLY damage our chances of making the playoffs, the same way a Santana injury would harm the Mets. You can get by without a Howard or an Utley for a few weeks cos someone can come in and get hit lucky (e.g Iguchi), but you can’t replace Hamels in the rotation with Park and expect anywhere near similar numbers.
Posted: 11:43 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
If you had to replace Hamels for the season, it would be devestating.. if you had to replace him for a few starts, I wouldn’t loss any sleep over it.
Anyway..
Phillies beat writer David Murphy was on with Jody Mac on 950espn.
and said that Hamels was throwing long-toss today, and didn’t appear to be worried.. he said that they are hoping the Doctor checks it out says that nothing is wrong and then Hamels can just battle through “inflammation”…. basically saying its just a mental thing that is bothering Hamels, but because its bothering him this late in Spring Training, they want to make sure he really is fine.
AND.. Hamels said that he can’t see why he wouldn’t start on April 5th!
Posted: 11:48 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Back then they didn’t have guys making $100 M guaranteed either.. so they baby them because its an investment
I think Nolan Ryan was the first pitcher to make $1 Million in a season… now you have guys making almost that much money per start. (CC Sabathia, $30 M.. and might start 35 games for the Yankees if he stays healthy)
Posted: 11:50 AM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Richie Allen
I was pretty shocked to say the least when I saw this post a couple of minutes ago.Didnt he have only one appearance this year?
Better be careful,he’s our future and present ace.
This cant be good,though.Tightness ,soreness,inflamation?I thought we were taking it very easy on him the way it was this spring.
Man,I might be looking for the bridge along with a lot of other fans too.
Posted: 12:04 PM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 mick
Fred–You are right on–being careful with Cole is the order of the day, but if he were to have a problem the Phillies take a huge step back—this is not a knock on Happ or Park–just a reminder on how important Hamels is every 5th day often times matching up with other number one starters
Posted: 12:47 PM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Tim says.. “these days guys are throwing way more via hs, college, jrs and minors. ”
Sorry, I don’t buy that. Pitchers nowadays are on a “pitch count” from the time they are in high school, college AND minors. Even in the little leagues, a new rule was created in 2006 to have mandatory pitch counts.
Athletes are bigger, stronger and well conditioned thanks to modern day training. Yet they never build up the ability to throw a lot of pitches. Yes, in this day of specialization, we have those relief specialists.. with greater reliance on “closers”. They have played a more prominent role than in generations past. However, my argument is the manager’s whim to arbitrarily pulled a starter from a well pitched game for the sake of a pitch count and denied the fans the opportunity to see the starter complete a possible masterpiece of a performance.
Consider this stategy by the opposing team; with the pitch count in mind, hitters deliberately foul off as many pitches as possible and try to inflate the count (balls and strikes) in their favor. This would increase the likelihood of having the starter (on a pitch count) leave the game and face a reliever who is less effective.
Looking back on a not so long ago history, here is a very short list of pitchers and their achievements:
Fergie Jenkins, 4 consecutive 300+ inning seasons. Pitched in the majors until age 40.
Luis Tiant. Pitched as many as 311 innings in a season. Retired at 41.
Gaylord Perry. 6 seasons of over 300 innings pitched. Pitched in the majors until age 44.
Nolan Ryan. Pitched as many as 332 innings, with a boatload of complete games. Retired at 46.
Bert Blyleven. Pitched 325 innings at age 22! Retired at age 41.
Mickey Lolich. Pitched as many as 376 innings. Retired at 38.
Tom Seaver. Pitched as many as 290 innings. Retired at 41.
yes, it’s sad to see..”the workhorse 300 ip guys are long gone.”
Posted: 12:52 PM on March 16, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
When asked how he gets his arm ready to go for the season and if he’s getting tired more over the past few years, etc..
Jamie Moyer said that he just loves to throw, the more you do it, the better your arm responds to it… you throw to get your arm storng, you throw to have your arm rebound from overthrowing… its basically just training the muscles
one of the things they have done recently is a ban on “breaking pitches” until players are 13-14 years old… in some league, 15-16 year old.. you’ll see more and more pitchers with Change-Ups already in their arsenal over the next few years because that is a legal pitch at any age
but the pitch counts and all are a knock on the teams, not the players… HS coaches are warned not to burn their players out to ruin their college future, college coaches are warned not to burn their players out to ruin their pro futures.. and organizational coaches are warned that they better not burn these players out because they have $x Million per year going to that arm..
so pitchers are only trained to go 7 innings or so.. and only trained to go 200 IP over the course of the season, because everyone is trying to protect them
Posted: 01:13 PM on March 16, 2009