2009 Projection: Brett Myers

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Thu, April 02, 2009 05:30 PM | Comments: 3
Posts, Projections

Brett Myers, SP (RHP)
Age: 28 (29, Aug. 17)

2008: 190 IP / 10-13 / 4.55 ERA / 65 BB / 163 K / 2 CG / 1.38 WHIP

Summary: It was a crazy season for Brett Myers. The righty had a horrendous first half (5.84 ERA) and a fantastic second half (3.06 ERA). In the time between then he learned to become a pitcher in the minor leagues over a handful of starts. Sounds weird, but it’s true. Myers returned in 2008 to throw more curveballs, place his fastballs better and keep his head in check. Everything worked well and his finish was respectable, but not quite solid. Optimism reigned after the season, however.

Career Level: Prime (Year 1)

Green Flags: Everything in the second half was so much better than the first half. In four fewer starts he surrendered 37 fewer runs, walked 23 further hitters, gave up 33 fewer hits. … Despite giving up the most home runs in baseball for the majority of the season, Myers’ fly ball rates decreased from 35 percent in 2007 to 32.5 percent in 2008. His ground ball rates increased to 47.1 percent, his best total since 2004.

Red Flags: He can turn back around and be a horrible pitcher. Not much more to say. … His K/9 rate decreased below 8.00 for the first time since 2004. … At the same time, his walk rate increased above 3.00 for the first time since then.

Prognostication: Myers is the hardest cookie to crack, always. This time he can be very good, or he can be very poor. I will side with good, but not incredible. He is a solid No. 2-3 guy, and can record an ERA within the 3.00 range. His strikeouts won’t be as prominent, but maybe that’s a good sign — he might be turning into a ground-ball pitcher. Maybe.

2009 Projection: 214 IP / 16-10 / 3.74 ERA / 60 BB / 147 K / 2 CG / 1.32 WHIP

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About Tim Malcolm

Tim Malcolm has written 1947 articles on Phillies Nation.

  • Posts: 0 BurrGundy

    Myers is incredibly important to this team’s success. I hope he can stay focused and injury free all year. I would like to see what he is capable of with all cylinders cranking and tuned.

  • Posts: 0 Manny

    Add to this the fact that he no longer has the pressure to prove that he’s the ace, that he’s already well over his transition from closer to starter, and that he’s gonna be a free agent after this season, and Myers looks really good for 2009.

    And hopefully he’ll help the offense, too. The guy learned SOMETHING about batting down in the minors.

  • Posts: 0 Woodman

    Brett is the key to Phillies staff. If he puts up strong numbers and is a solid #2 guy, the Phils will be in a great position to defend their crown.

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