2009 Projection: Raul Ibanez
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Wed, April 01, 2009 05:30 PM | Comments: 18
Posts, Projections
Raul Ibanez, OF (LHB)
Age: 36 (37, June 2)
2008: 635 AB / 85 R / 23 HR / 110 RBI / 64 BB / 110 SO / 2 SB / .293 AVG / .358 OBP / .479 SLG
Summary: Raul Ibanez remained somewhat consistent over his career averages, hitting 23 home runs and driving in 110, numbers around which he’s familiar. His strikeouts rose, however, to the second-largest total of his career. He did hit more doubles than ever (43, six more than his past career high), and even had a career high in hits. This might be due to rich plate vision — he raised his swing and contact percentages outside the strike zone to career-high levels while remaining a strong hitter (87 percent) in the strike zone. His fielding was arguably the worst of all major league left fielders in 2008.
Career Level: Descent (Year 1)
Green Flags: There’s no reason to believe Ibanez’s hitting and on-base abilities will decline in 2009, considering his average and on-base percentage remained higher than his career norms. … Ibanez’s walk rates have been much higher in the past four seasons, and have remained steady in the 9 percent range. … Ibanez is seeing even more of the plate, as his outside-the-plate swinging and contact has risen with each season. … He has grown as a breaking-ball and off-speed hitter, as more of his hits have come from cutters, sliders and changeups than usual.
Red Flags: Yet Ibanez’s fastball hits have dropped a bit, indicating his swing may be slowing. … Comparitively, his strikeout rates were at some of their highest levels since his earliest days. … Wear may become a factor for Ibanez as he approaches his 40s.
Prognostication: Don’t be fooled — Ibanez can stroke. And if the spring is any indication, he can hit to all fields. That shows those outside-the-plate numbers are giving results. He might even raise on his homer numbers in 2009, considering the way the wind can blow out to left field at Citizens Bank Park. It’s likely, though, that some of his numbers decrease slightly. But they’ll be quite positive.
2009 Projection: 562 AB / 79 R / 26 HR / 90 RBI / 58 BB / 101 SO / 3 SB / .293 AVG / .356 OBP / .468 SLG
Posts: 0 Kathie Brenneman
“There’s no reason to believe Ibanez’s hitting and on-base abilities will deter in 2009, considering his average and on-base percentage remained higher than his career norms.”
you mean “decline” not “deter.” “deter” makes no sense.
Posted: 05:50 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Thanks. Sometimes you mangle words when you’re writing 30 of these things without a proofreader.
Posted: 05:54 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Jim
i like these projections in principle but i have to say your being so conservative. looking at everyones (but bruntless) avg , obp and slg you seem to stay within 5% of what they did last year.
with ibanez i have a different stat to argue though, his home runs. he hit 23 hr in the cavernous safeco field. it would lead one to think that he would hit more than 3 over last years total. of course this is all speculation, but then again this all is.
just my opinion
Posted: 06:38 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 BurrGundy
I really enjoy these projections and feel that being conservative is the best road to follow — better to be pleasantly surprised. I also feel that Ibanez will hit 30 homers this year and surpass 100 RBI’s. But I must admit that I have always suffered from the disease of rose-colored optimism when it comes to the Phils.
Posted: 06:47 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Jim
it is nice to be surprised but this is an objective anaylsis. you cant possibly think that all these guys will stay within 2-3 points of there averages. especially since tim did all this research conncerning walk ratios, line drive ratios etc
Posted: 06:54 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
Safeco field doesn’t suppress power for lefties, only for righties. Ibanez’s power numbers will not benefit too much from the change in scenery.
Posted: 07:00 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 BurrGundy
I will submit my fine for optimism in the morning.
Posted: 07:09 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Jim
burrgundy, saying that these guys wont stay within 2-3 points of their averages doesnt mean i think they will fall
Posted: 07:12 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Ibanez is going to be a GREAT Philly for a short time, maybe not in the box score but this guy can flat out play and the hope is that will spread through the clubhouse. The Phils are a streaky line-up and the addition of Ibanez puts in a guy who’s not streaky because he goes out and plays game by game, he’s not swinging for the fence or slapping for a base-hit.
Posted: 07:42 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Griffin
The Sports Illustrated baseball preview has an article on each team and the Phillies article is all about Ibanez and his ridiculous work ethic. He seems like an easy guy to root for.
Posted: 08:02 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
Ibañez better be superb this season… he’s on my fantasy team! Raauuuuuuuuuuuuul
Posted: 10:50 PM on April 1, 2009
Posts: 0 ryan
i think playing in CBP and in a more potent phils lineup will add more than three homers to his 2008 total. i could see him over 30 for sure. and i can’t see how his RBI’s will dip. if anything they’ll go up because he’ll see more pitches in this lineup than he did in Seattle
Posted: 01:35 AM on April 2, 2009
Posts: 0 Craig
I think you’re selling Raul a little short.
I fully expect him to stroke in at least 100 RBIs this season.
Posted: 03:19 AM on April 2, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
I noticed that you expected him to have almost 70 fewer AB’s… do you think that he’ll catch the injury bug or that he’ll be sharing time? I could see Charlie switching him out late in games if he’s batting 5th and the opposing team brings in a lefty but 70 AB’s is a lot.
Posted: 10:51 AM on April 2, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I fully expect him to stroke in at least 100 RBIs this season.
In the five or six hole? Behind Utley and Howard?
Please. Burrell couldn’t eclipse 100 last season in the same spot. Ibanez will drive in runs, but if he’s down in the order, it won’t happen as frequently.
Chuck P: Yes, I think Charlie will sub him late in games, a la Burrell, mostly for Bruntlett. And I think he might get hurt a bit, miss a couple games. Let’s say he doesn’t play 15 games. That’s 50 at bats or so. Let’s say he’s taken out early 40 times. That means he misses about 15 extra at bats. Now we’re at 65, give or take.
Posted: 11:00 AM on April 2, 2009
Posts: 0 Craig
We’ll see
Posted: 02:40 PM on April 2, 2009
Posts: 0 EmilyLitella
People seem to think Ibanez will replace Burrell’s run production, but I just don’t see it happening. It’s not a knock on Ibanez, but the guy will no longer be hitting behind baseball’s premier run scorer nor will he have a .300 hitter batting behind him.
He’ll especially find it tough driving in runs if the Phillies insert Werth in the fifth position. With Feliz and Ruiz whose 2008 VORPs showed they produced less at the bottom of the lineup then would be expected from minor league replacement players, I don’t see Ibanez getting too many good pitches to hit. Also at 37, it’s a good bet that his best days are behind him.
It was surprising to see someone in the Philadelphia area actually acknowledging the fact that Ibanez may be a worse fielder than Burrell. Burrell was actually a good fielder with poor range. He had a strong accurate arm and unfailingly threw the ball where it needed to be thrown. He also grew accustomed to the quirky caroms the ball sometimes takes coming off the wall in left and left center. I wouldn’t be surprised to see hitters taking a lot more extra bases on balls hit to left this year.
Posted: 10:28 AM on April 3, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Isn’t VORP the made-up stat that uses imaginary-players that don’t actually exist in teams’ Farm Systems, because if they really did exist then maybe they would be up playing everyday instead of the guys that the formula predicts they are better than… I’m confused..
Extra-base hits to left are doubles.. and Burrell’s lack of range translated to some doubles.. nobody hits triples to LF, so expect Ibanez’ poor fielding to equal Burrell’s lack of range.. about the same amount of extra base hits
Posted: 10:36 AM on April 3, 2009