2009 Projection: JA Happ

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, April 03, 2009 01:30 PM | Comments: 6
Posts, Projections

JA Happ, SP (LHP)
Age: 26

2008: 31.2 IP / 1-0 / 3.69 ERA / 14 BB / 26 K / 0 CG / 1.33 WHIP

Summary: Getting a little more time to show off, JA Happ proved his mettle with a few fine starts in 2008. He played like most promising rookies, with a fewer than 2:1 K:BB rate and a pretty decent ERA. His 3.98 BB/9 rate was high, and his 7.39 K/9 rate was low, but for a man who led the International League in strikeouts for much of 2008, there isn’t much concern about improvement. He held hitters to an impressive .239 average, handling lefties very well (.209 AVG, .261 OBP).

Career Level: Ascent (Year 1)

Green Flags: The strikeout rates could likely be his worst for a while, as he’ll likely learn major league timing a lot more as he continues. He doesn’t have any more to learn in the minor leagues. … While Happ dominated against lefties, his splits against righties (.247/.344/.312) are actually very, very good, too.

Red Flags: His fly-ball rates were high (42.6 percent compared to 30.9 percent ground balls), so that raises caution. … His walk rate was high, though he is young.

Prognostication: Happ needs to start for a major league team, and it’s likely he’ll finish the season as a regular starter in the Phillies rotation. At this point in his career, he probably could strike out more than 150 hitters in a season and finish with an ERA under 4.00. But I’ll say he rates just above a 4.00 ERA. He is still fresh.

2009 Projection: 118.1 IP / 9-7 / 4.02 ERA / 47 BB / 95 K / 0 CG / 1.38 WHIP

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Tim Malcolm has written 1947 articles on Phillies Nation.

  • Posts: 0 Bruce

  • Posts: 0 Bruce

    Sorry, disregard link. I was testing to create a smiley of my own.

  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I think hell replace Moyer and have a good season for the most part. THe rotation that finishes the season, assuming no trades are made in that regard and all are healthy and performing well, I think will be: Hamels Myers Blanton Happ Carrasco.

  • Posts: 0 Bruce

    Because the World Champion’s starting rotation is basically intact from last season plus the addition of Park and expect to continue success , chance for Happ’s being added to the roster is limited to September call up (roster expanded to 40). However, if Kendrick is successful in AAA Lehigh Valley, he will get first consideration for September call up over Happ or Carrasco. I doubt Manuel will keep Happ for the bullpen when season opens.

  • Posts: 0 Chris.I

    I really see alot in this Kid. I see alot of potential in him, and I think if he’s given a shot, he wouldn’t dissapoint you. However I think he has quality stuff for a young pitcher, and I have to disagree with Tim…I think his ERA would be way under 4.00. I think he would be a good 2.80-3.20 pitcher if he’s giving a guarentee spot. He reminds me alot like Hammels.

  • Posts: 0 ryan

    i think it will be less than two months before we realize Chan Ho Park is the Korean Adam Eaton and JA Happ takes his place.

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