Opinion: Lower Your Expectations For Hamels
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, April 10, 2009 09:51 AM | Comments: 68
Opinion, Posts
What should we expect from Cole Hamels today? Instead of trying to answer that, let’s voice what we want to expect from the ace.
Hamels is making his first start of the 2009 season, after stalling like an old engine at the starting gates during spring training. He had some elbow issues. The Phillies sidelined him. He started back up. The Rays clocked him. Of course, Hamels probably wasn’t trying to dominate Tampa Bay in the vein of games one and five of the World Series, so take that for it’s worth. But that was his last outing, and now he’s getting the ball and taking the hill in Denver, sanctuary of the big fly.
This will mark yet another test for a team that supposedly hadn’t had much practice and preparation before the season. It took a few games for the Phillies offense to reach regular season mode, while the starting pitching still hasn’t quite worked out the kinks. For Hamels, this is more than straight preparation. This is returning from elbow “tightness,” hopefully steering away from elbow “injury.” Which, of course, would mean “really bad things.”
In that vein, it’s essential that Hamels leaves this start feeling good. But, since the Phillies are now playing notable baseball, it’s essential he does enough to allow a win. I’m hoping for six innings, two runs, a couple strikeouts. If he allows four or five runs, is there cause for alarm? Not quite – just as long as the elbow feels fine.
We expect Hamels to blow away everyone this season, for his final rush of starts in 2008 were those of legend. But we have to temper ourselves, at least for the first few outings. If we know Hamels like we know him, he’ll be in good shape and give the Phillies the chance to win today. But if things don’t work that way, don’t scream your head off – you probably should’ve come in with lower expectations.
Posts: 0 NJ
Just look at the lines from Halladay, Lincecum, Sabathia and a couple of others in their first starts. The only thing thats important in tonights start is that Cole feels healthy, pain free and gets a feel for his pitches, anything above thats a bonus.
This point in the year is for riding your fringe guys on a high from good springs, it’s a long year and thats what your big boys are for.
Posted: 10:01 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Mr. Phil
Looking forward to see how Hamels and Phils do this weekend in Colorado.
I wanted to add my voice to the Eaton thing briefly. I did not see the ceremony or the coverage. I am not a boo bird (with the exception of when Bonds came to Philly), but I think it was ridiculous for Eaton to even show up at CBP on Wednesday. It puzzled me. When I heard that he waved to the crowd while they booed it reinforced my opinion of him, a dork. The world’s full of Adam Eatons.
I thought it was cool that Burrell was there and that he received the loudest ovation. He is a Phillie forever. I heard Mikey Mis on 950 saying he didn’t think Burrell should have been there because he had a game that evening. It created interesting discussion, but that is Misanelli’s job.
Okay, I feel better now.
Posted: 10:03 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 BDphils
Well said. This team gets out of the gate slow so hopefully he goes 6 and maybe 2 runs. Look for the shut out in early summer.
Need that offense to take advantage of CO air and get into a groove. A Howard homerun would be nice to see in this series….
Posted: 10:04 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
With the boost of confidence from Wednesday’s game (plate discipline more than actual hitting).. but scoring runs nontheless..
I expect our offense to put an 8 spot on the board today..
Hamels gets the WIN, gives up 4 or 5 in 5 or 6 innings
Posted: 10:13 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Rich Dubee said theyre putting him on an 85 pitch limit tonight, so I expect that hed turn in a quality start. 6 innings 3 runs or less. If he struggles a bit then hell have a shorter outing than youd normally see – 5 innings. you want him basically to go out and pitch well, hit his spots and feel healthy, and leaving the phillies with a chance to win when he exits the game.
Posted: 10:14 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Albert
You’re dead on here Tim. I do not expect Cole to be in WS form this afternoon. I would just like to see him notch a QS, pain free, and put us in position for a less stress win than Wednesday.
Posted: 10:23 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Joel
Well if he is not at least solid and somebody else steps up to the plate and become our stopper, we are not going to the playoffs. Period.
Posted: 10:29 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Chooch's cooches
Just for the record- Colorado is a pitchers park now, has been for several years
Posted: 10:30 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Chooch's Cooches
And I guess this is worthy of mentioning- Kris Benson makes his first start today for the Rangers.
Posted: 10:40 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Phil
hahahahahaha how is colorado a pitchers park? it is the #1 hitters park in baseball
Posted: 10:40 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 witenike
I want to see him to really well but will be patient with him if he doesn’t. He’s got a lot riding on his shoulders after last season and we have to remember how young he still is. I think the 85 pitch limit is good if not a little high. Tough start to have to make in the thin Colo. air too.
Posted: 10:41 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Dennis
He is our ace, I expect him to pitch well. Period. I’m not saying he should be in playoff form but come on…. If we are that worried about him then tell him not to pitch and throw Happ out there. Hamels goes at least 6 strong today and gets the win.
Posted: 10:42 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 CT
my prediction is 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K but i’m hoping for better
Posted: 10:44 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Don M’s got it on the money, it’s more important the offense starts driving the ball with some intent. Asking zero’s from your starting rotation in the first couple of weeks is like asking for Christmas in July.
And Colorado a pitchers park Chooch’s Chooes… Coors a pitchers park??? The humidor might have taken some fight out of the ball but that’s still a hitters park, you need 3 Joey Gaithright’s to cover that outfield so your get more cheap singles and doubles than happy hour.
Posted: 10:53 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
My theory is that no matter who the starting pitcher is, if you cannot reasonably expect a quality start out of him, then dont start him (6IP 3ER or less). So if Hamels starts, I expect him to turn in a quality start. Im sure he wont go much more than 6 with an 85 pitch limit for todays start imposed by Rich Dubee, but hes gotta at least give the the bare minimum for a QS. If you dont think he can do that, then push his start back another week because then it doesnt give the team a good chance to win.
Posted: 11:07 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
CT… your stat line is only 1-out away from being a “Quality Start”.. (6.0 IP, 3 ER). I will take that every single time from ANY pitcher on our team.. and I would LOVE for Hamels to do that today.. but I don’t see it happening yet.
His Fastball is at like 85.. If my life depended on it, I would guess that Hamels gets rocked today, before I said he would pitch a Quality Start..
I was not happy when I heard he would start in Colorado like two weeks ago, but hopefully he’s ready to go
Posted: 11:09 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Also, Colorado is a total hitters park, which is why you should stay away from their sluggers on the free agent or trade market because their numbers are inflated.
Posted: 11:10 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree that we have to lower our expectations… But wasn’t Hamels’ fastball in the high-80s at this point last year when he dominated but lost that second game to the Nationals (I think 1-0)? Can someone verify that?
Posted: 11:12 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Georgie
I was sort of surprised that Cole is pitching today, I thought they might push his first start back maybe a week or two. Like Don, I’m not going into today’s game with high expectations, just hoping he’s ready to go and his arm feels ok after the game. Anytime you aspirate/inject a joint, there’s some type of injury going on there, so hopefully he’s not pushing it too much, I’d rather see him miss a few early starts and be in top form for the latter part of the season and the playoffs.
Posted: 11:19 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeha I remember that Manny…he wasnt even fully stretched out yet he still dominated.
Posted: 11:22 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Geoff wouldn’t say stay away from Rockies sluggers as powers power whatever stadium your in but guys in coors can get somewhere between a .20 to 40pt bump from cheap hits in Coors to look a better player than he is. Holliday was still something like a .320 hitter with power outside coors but your not expecting anywhere near the same as his best from Willy Tavares in Cincy as prime examples.
Posted: 11:23 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Chooch's Cooches
Coors Field USED to be a hitter’s park, until they started using a humidor to keep the balls moist in ’02. It actually makes the balls slightly heavier and makes them easier for the pitcher to grip, as opposed to the when they used to be extremely dry due to the thin air. It’s been a well-documented effect, I think even by Bill James himself.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2007-10-26-3457255919_x.htm
Posted: 11:23 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
I agree…I do NOT like hearing the words “took a shot in his elbow” at all. So I dont even really think he should be starting, but if he starts I expect a QS, otherwise why risk it if hes not ready.
Posted: 11:24 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah obviously Holliday is still a good hitter with power, but his numbers were still inflated. Atkins is a bust waiting to happen when he leaves town. Helton is done, Taveras will suck still because he cant get on base enough to be a good leadoff hitter. Now…if you can put up good pitching numbers in that ballpark now were talkin…Id be all over a guy like Francis or Jiminez if they were able to put up a few good consistent healthy 15 win seasons with sub 3.5 ERA in that place.
The humidor has cut down on the silly numbers at Coors, but its still a hitters ballpark with inflated numbers. CBP inflates numbers too, but not by nearly as much. Someone like Burrell made a living off of pulling the ball over that short porch in LF but he may see a bit of a power dip when he plays at that musky barn known as Tropicana Field.
Posted: 11:30 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 DHall
Yes, while Colorado is not a pitchers park, it’s not as much of a hitter’s park as it used to be because of the humidor that they installed. Prior to that, it was ridiculous. What looked like a pop-up would end up leaving the yard. I’ll be happy with a quality start from Hamels. The main thing is that he feels good afterwards. I’m more concerned with Brett tomorrow.
Posted: 11:32 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Chuck P
Hamels will be on a short pitch count, which means that we might see young J-Happy tonight. I want to see what he does becuase he looked good but gave up a tater ball.
Posted: 11:33 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Chooch a hitters park isn’t just the power element. Sure a homerun is harder to hit in Coors than it was before the humidor but the reason Rockies pitchers get beaten up is its such a spacious field making it much more difficult to cover ground especially in the outfield, if a guys on 1st has half decent legs than a gap hits a run scored. When you look at the Rockies pitchers statlines those starters give up hits like there’s no tomorrow. There’s also the fact it’s believed to be harder to get control of your breaking stuff in coors because of the thin air which makes the off-speed stuff more suseptable to hanging to be taken advantage of.
Coors isn’t the sluggers park it was but its far from being a pitchers park.
Posted: 11:33 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Yeah I agree, Colorados staff should be like 3/4 sinkerballers out of 5. If they had money to blow theyve have gone after Lowe because hed be great there.
Posted: 11:45 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Which hitters on the Nationals should we compare to Tulowitzki, Garret Atkins, Todd Helton.. and then throw Chris Ianneta in the mix.. and the game is being played in Coor’s Field…
I honestly don’t remember Hamels not reaching 90 on the gun last year.. at times his fastball would only be 90-91.. but even that is a huge difference from 85, so people can sit on his change and take it deep
Curveballs don’t break in Colorado.. This really isn’t a great place for him to be starting the season.. I think maybe they did that so if he has a bad outing, they can use this an excuse “Cole didn’t pitch as well as we would have liked, but it’s a hitter’s ballpark, etc.. ”
OR if he pitches pretty well they’ll call it great “especially since its in a hitter’s ballpark..”
The ball was jumping out to RF on Wednesday.. I was in 310, so I couldn’t tell pitch locations, but I don’t blame Happ for getting into trouble with the long ball
Posted: 11:51 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Robbi P
Hey does anybody know what channel the game will be on tonight? It says CNP? I assume its CN8? Any help would be appreciated. GO PHILLIES!
Posted: 11:52 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 BurrGundy
I don’t expect Hamels to pitch a perfect game with 18 strikeouts. But I do expect him to go at least five innings and put the Phils in positiion to win the game. That is not too much to expect from our ace.
Posted: 11:59 AM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Garrett Atkins is Austin Kearns…Todd Helton is Adam Dunn, Chris Ianetta is Jesus Flores(kidding, Ianetta is a good hitter), Troy Tulowitzki is Christian Guzman…
Im sort of just kidding with that comparison, but those Colorado offensive numbers are definitely a little higher than they would be if they were playing at nationals park.
Posted: 12:02 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Actually, no, T.T. is the same guy hitter as….Willie Harris.
Posted: 12:05 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Don M- wouldn’t be concerned about Hamels curve since he doesn’t seem to have a consistent feel for it anyway (and as he puts it ‘it sucks’), I’d be more worried his circle-change hangs in Coors forcing him to the traditional change-up which is more of a compliment to the ‘Hoffman change’.
The good thing about facing Coors early is it forces a pitcher to locate his fastball and hit his spots without making constant use of movement and break on pitches. That’s why it’s such a tough place to pitch giving hitters the chance to be more disciplined and sit on hitters pitches.
Posted: 12:06 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Since the Phillies need a RH bat and a reserve outfielder, which of the nationals OF surplus do ppl think is worthy of going after?
willingham, pena, kearns? im sure theyd take Kyle Kendrick back in return..
Posted: 12:09 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
^Going into what Geoff said there- Offensive numbers get confused for power numbers and everyones favourite OPS. Bats can hit better in most catagories in Coors because it’s tougher for guys on the mound to make their pitches. At the great American ballpark or Wrigley you get tagged for leaving something over the plate but hitters have to protect the zone, in Coors hitters can sit on certain pitches because pitchers have to nip since locating their pitches in the zone is so much harder.
Posted: 12:12 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Pena was released snce he’s Andruw Jones without the legacy. Cannot believe the Nats aren’t making use of Willingham, am sure the Phils were trying to deal for him a couple of years back.
Posted: 12:14 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
It coudlnt hurt to bring in Willingham, except we dont know if hell be another guy who cant transition to a bench/part time role well or not..
Posted: 12:17 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Rob
Tim, maybe we should let the Phillies win more than 1 game before we say they’re even playing notable baseball. The Phil’s have mashed in 1/27 innings. Like always… I hope they can spread it around.
Posted: 12:25 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 KevO
Regarding what Geoff said about Burrell and “making a living pulling the ball over the LF fence” is not necessarily true because he hit more homeruns on the road then he did at home.
Also, you can’t say that you wouldn’t take any of the colorado hitters because “their numbers are inflated.” You wouldnt take Tulo, Helton, Holliday (when he was there), Ianetta, or Atkins. I would take Atkinds and Ianetta over Feliz and Ruiz, i dunno about you.
Im not a fan of saying their numbers are inflated, so, hitters that play in Wrigley, CBP, Coors, Boston, Cincy, Yanks are all inflated. My point is if they can hit the ball hard consistently, and they happend to go over the fence more than usual, i would take them on my team.
Also, it doesn’t matter what the ball park is, hitters or pitchers, if you have 2 good pitchers @ CBP the score isn’t 9-7, its god damn 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, etc. Look at the playoff games at CBP, their wasn’t more any absolute slug fest games. Pitching will always beat hitting, no matter what. The phils won the WS cause of their pitching/bullpen, not because they put up 8 runs a game.
Posted: 12:40 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Atkins is a HORRIBLE infield defender, Feliz is better…Ianetta is a better hitting catcher no doubt, hes definitely good.
No kidding pitching ALWAYS wins…it always has and it always will. When I say inflated I dont mean like 20,25% here except in pre-humidor colorado. were talking like no more than 5%. statistically significant but not huge..
Posted: 12:57 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
they had to move atkins to 1b last year because he was a stiff out there..
Posted: 01:00 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 KevO
or because Helton was hurt….
Posted: 01:02 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
All of those guys on the Rockies hit AT LEAST .030 point higher at Coor’s then on the Road in their Careers..
Iannetta is lower by a little but hasn’t ever played a full season as their #1 catcher.
Garrett Atkins – .079 difference.
Home = .337
Road = .258
Todd Helton – .068 difference.
Home = .362
Road = .294
Troy Tulowitzki – .030 difference.
Home = .292
Road = .262
Posted: 01:04 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I think “SCORING” is down since they mandated the Humidor for all the baseballs in Colorado..
So the balls aren’t as juiced up before the games start.. but its a big OF, and the ball still carries very well there, definitely a HITTER FRIENDLY PARK
BUT… the Phillies get to hit there too, so I don’t think its an advantage at all, I’m just worried about the reaction most fans will have if Hamels doesn’t throw a no-hitter today.. people will be jumping of the bandwagon
Posted: 01:06 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
atkins and helton seem to be seriously inflated by coors…
actually, kevo, helton was playing RF at the end of last year when he came back because atkins was so bad defensively he could only play first…
Posted: 01:08 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 NJ
Exactly what I was saying, a good HITTER (not slugger) is great in Coors and an average on raises his numbers to reasonably high numbers like Tulo’s average.
People get so hung up on the ‘character’ of ballparks as if that’s all that happens there, pretty sure every run in Cincy isn’t a homer and every out in San Diego isn’t a punchout.
If Hamels gets near or does better than a quality start be surprised and there’s nothing wrong with that. So many fans act like any bad start is the beginning of the end for our starters… 30+ games people!
Posted: 01:12 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Conversely, Jake Peavy was an average pitcher last year on the road – at best. Pull up those numbers…if i remember correctly, away from Petco Peavys ERA was OVER 4.3
Posted: 01:15 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 130 Amanda Orr
I expect nothing less than a no hitter… Kidding
I agree, as long as he feels okay. Hopefully he will pitch a good game, and hopefully the offense can give him some run support.
And like NJ said, look at what the other aces did in their first start. Is there reason to worry? Not really.
Posted: 01:16 PM on April 10, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Todd Helton played ZERO games in RF last year.. or any year since 1997 (when he played 2 games in RF)
Atkins has played a combination of 3b and 1b for the past few seasons.. and while he won’t win a Gold Glove anytime soon… he’s a career .297 hitter, and he averages 22 HR, and 108 RBIs per season.. (and plays 50% of his games on the road) 44 HR in Coors, 45 HR in Away games.. 8 more AWAY games in his career
Posted: 01:19 PM on April 10, 2009