At Memorial Day Marker, Phils Looking Good
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, May 25, 2009 12:03 PM | Comments: 59
Analysis, Posts
Memorial Day: Not only is it the unofficial start to summer, but it’s the perfect time to take stock in a baseball season. We’ve reached the quarter pole, and as June and the Dog Days creep into the picture, teams are beginning to shape into either contenders or pretenders. Yes, the Nationals probably won’t win anything again.
And in the rest of the National League, the Dodgers are running away with the West and it might be a three- to four-team race in the Central. The East? While Florida should hang around, it’s the Phillies, Mets and Braves lunging for first. And on stock day, the Phils are in good shape.
The 24-18 defending champs are high off a thrilling weekend set at the Boogie Down. The offense has carried the torch while pitching has scuffled, but there’s hope for the arms: Cole Hamels is healthy and dealing, Brett Myers has composed a string of solid starts, JA Happ has entered the rotation with gusto. Meanwhile, the bullpen is in great shape, save for the mysterious reeling of Brad Lidge.
Let’s look at what’s good and bad for our boys through 42:
The Good
Contributions on offense: There will be slumps and hot streaks. Ryan Howard was hot early. Then Chase Utley. Then Jimmy Rollins. Pedro Feliz is struggling now, but Carlos Ruiz has picked up his game. Shane Victorino is starting to see his way out of a cold swing. Yet the Phils continue to bash the ball to the tune of 5.69 runs per game. A season is filled with bulk contributions — so far guys are doing exactly what they’re supposed to do.
Ribbie: I saved a special space for Raul Ibanez, who hasn’t let up 25 percent through the season. He’s a special player. He hits to all fields, hits for power, hits in the clutch, fields well enough, can throw out runners, possesses workable speed for a 37-year-old man. Again, he’s 37. Where did this come from? Could he have been doing this for years in Philadelphia? He’s seventh in the majors in hitting (.352), third in runs batted in (43) and first in home runs (17). He’s threatening the Triple Crown. Ibanez has fueled this offense consistently since game one.
Top-line pitching: Finally, Brett Myers is settling into a pitcher’s role. His 4.34 ERA is still decreasing, while his 43/19 K/BB ratio is pretty solid. His bend-not-break start in Yankee Stadium shows his capability against good teams. If he can remain at that high level all season, Myers would suffice in the No. 2 role behind Cole Hamels, who has solidified himself this season as one of baseball’s best arms.
Middle relief: Thank Clay Condrey — this man’s been doubling down all season with success. In 24.2 innings he’s held a 2.19 ERA, taking the Chad Durbin 2008 torch as most underrated valuable player on the team. Not to be outdone is Ryan Madson, the all-world setup man with a 2.95 ERA and sick 23/6 K/BB ratio. Chad Durbin (4.32) has taken some tough licks but remains a crucial workhorse. JC Romero’s return should help organize the bullpen into the machine it represented last season.
The Bad
Back-end starting pitching: Answers are necessary concerning Joe Blanton (2-3, 7.11 ERA) and Jamie Moyer (3-4, 7.62 ERA). Two poor pitchers can’t exist in one rotation, and a change might come before the All-Star break. The need for an acquired pitcher is high with doubts concerning prospect Carlos Carrasco and carbon copies Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter.
Brad Lidge: His ERA (9.15) is a poor indicator, but what’s worse is his 2.08 WHIP. The results are simple: He allows two baserunners and one run per inning. A closer cannot do this. His knee is likely still bothering him, affecting his slider, which isn’t hitting enough for batters to be fooled. Lidge needs time away from the big leagues; maybe a return at the halfway mark would show better results.
Poor bench: John Mayberry Jr. adds necessary pop to a bench that hasn’t pulled its weight so far. The main culprit, surprisingly, is Greg Dobbs (.143 AVG, .229 SLG), who might be victim of not getting enough time. That might change as Feliz dips toward career norms. So there is hope the bench improves; if Dobbs gets better, the bench looks great.
Assessment
The bad aspects of the Phillies 2009 season seem like small hurdles. The bench can improve with some tweaking of playing time. Lidge is a great concern, but bullpen depth is strong and there’s time to figure out the reason for failure. And a trade-deadline move might secure the rotation. Despite these problems, the good are outweighing, showing completely in New York. Big pitchers are pitching big. The offense is developing into a clutch machine again. The 24-18 record is justified. The Phillies are on pace to finish about 92-70, which is dead on with the 2008 team. That should win the tight and competitive East again.
Posts: 0 Zach
Any rumors/opinions on solutions for the rotation?
Blanton can’t have more than a start or two to save himself; Jamie deserves more of a pass but even he has a lot of work to do in order to contribute to an effective postseason staff.
I agree that Carrasco (for now at least) and Kendrick aren’t the answers, Carpenter didn’t look too bad against the Nats but I don’t see the Phils wanting rely on him anymore than as the 6th man…if that.
Happ has been pitching well and hopefully can take over for Moyer and Blanton if they don’t step up, but that still leaves a hole…
Posted: 01:09 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Tim, in general, I concur with your “quarter pole” report card assessment of the team. Regarding Brad Lidge and saying he ..needs time away from the big leagues; maybe a return at the halfway mark…”(whoa!!) seems contradictory to your previous blog on Lidge.
In that blog you ask for fan support and suggest that the next clean save (1-2-3) may be what Lidge needs. That’s a better thought and realistically the Phillies organization are not going to take that drastic route of sending Lidge (as with Brett Myers of last season) to the minors. I mentioned in another post that all players, including pitchers, goes through a “slump” or two during the course of the season. Lidge’s slump can obviously be attributed to his injury, his concern for complete recovery and the delay in preparation for season’s start.
If you look at his last relief appearance where he made a few good pitches and victimized by two “seeing eye” grounders for hits (and throw in a stolen base) for a small ball rally, he did get the last out (a grounder) and gave the Phillies another chance to win the game in extra innings. That tells me he is close to resolving the issues; whether it’s mechanics or focus. As I mentioned in that post, Lidge deserves our support and with the team’s winning record, I know Manual and Dubee will exercise the necessary patience with him.
Posted: 01:36 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Dan
Zach, Happ already filled in for Park.
If it is necessary for Lidge to have some time off to figure out his problems, I think Madson would fill in nicely as the closer. With J.C. coming back soon he could fit as the 8th inning guy, and Taschner or even Escalona could be the Phils situational lefty.
Posted: 01:46 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
Sorry Tim, I didn’t check closely the author of the mentioned blog on Lidge. It’s Amanda Orr’s blog. I apologize for my presumption that you wrote it. By the way, I like her thoughts regarding Lidge and asking for support than yours. (chuckles)
Posted: 01:51 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well, the Moyer issue will become clearer today. Since he can ONLY pitch well against teams like the Marlins and Reds (young, overly anxious hitters) anymore apparently, he should be able to have a good outing today. Although, if he cant even do that then thats about all we need to see from him and hed have to be replaced.
Posted: 02:36 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Zach
I meant for Happ to step into a 3 or 4 role if Jamie and Joe don’t improve.
I can’t say he does or doesn’t deserve it, at this point, or that I’d like to see him that high in the rotation. My question was what if that becomes necessary?
What are the options if the worst happens and Moyer and Blanton get lit up in their next few starts? At least we have Madson to cover for Lidge given a worst case scenario, but Happ could soon be all alone at the back end.
Posted: 02:37 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Dave
I don’t think that supporting Lidge necessarily entails that we demand for him to be sent out to the lions time after time. One of the definitions of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I doubt that temporarily losing the closer’s job will do more psychological damage than a couple more blown saves would, anyway.
In other words, I’m for them keeping all options open. Rest, a trip to the DL, a trip to the minors, some low-pressure relief situations or even just putting him out there in the 9th inning and letting him pitch if they really think that his recovery is just around the corner.
Posted: 02:47 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Good article Tim. I just hope we see a lot more of “good Brett” than “evil Brett” as the season wears on. He has GOT to keep that fastball down and, just as importantly, not hand those curves. As we progess, what of Marson and Donald?? I think we all believe now that Ruiz may be entrenched as our catcher. If thats true, Marson is effectively blocked and you would have no choice but to trade him. As for Luke “I Am Your Father” Donald, almost the same scenario. I think Feliz is great for this team at third. I want him to stay there past this year. That leaves CF or RF for Luke. I think Utley can eventually make a switch to the OF if Donald can’t so you can move Donald to 2B. But who wants to really try that? Perhaps Victorino + goes for pitching. We all love Shane but you gotta give to get and he’s the logical one to go if you’re gonna take someone from the major league roster to trade in a package for that #2 starter everyone (including me) seems to agree we need.
The Dispy
Posted: 03:33 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Manny
I agree 100%, Dave. Right on.
Posted: 03:35 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
We definitely need that number 2 starter. It all depends what the trading team is looking for. Some teams might want a major league bat (which would be Werth, Mayberry, or Shane). IF they want young pitching then we have that too in the minors. The Phillies are well positioned to get that number 2 guy.
Posted: 03:37 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Yes they are Geoff. Think of all the guys we could trade that teams would want (that we would give up): Shane, Marson, Donald, Carrasco, Savery, Mayberry, Happ. Whew. Thats good trade bait. And if Halladay become available??? Can you say 7 for 1? :)
The Dipsy
Posted: 03:48 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
I wouldn’t trade Victorino and Halladay won’t be available.
Posted: 03:56 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Keith, why do you always shoot me down? You said that Houston would never trade Oswalt, too. So, if you needed to trade starting O for a #2 starter who would YOU trade.
Respectfully,
The Dipsy
Posted: 03:58 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
I never said Houston wouldn’t trade Oswalt. I also wouldn’t trade a starter OF. We might not even need to trade for starting pitching, long way until the trade deadline.
Posted: 04:13 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Do you honestly think we won’t need a strating pitcher. I mean really. Humor me for a second and say that we do need one. They want O. Who would you trade? Or would you just stand pat and go down with ship?
The Dipsy
Posted: 04:34 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
I’ll give you a for instance. Cain become available. SF wants Victorino and blah blah. You just won’t trade Victorino? Period.
The Dipsy
Posted: 04:36 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
okay, we don’t need one. not yet.
Posted: 04:37 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
no I wouldn’t trade Victorino, what do u have against him? lol. I don’t think we need to trade a starter for a pitcher, sorry Dipsy.
Posted: 04:38 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
The Dipsy Don’t listen to these guys, they have to go get a starter, and not a blanton type, there is a lot of wait and see guys on this blog. But in business to invest what they did and not go the little extra to put the best product on the field is crazy. Think of what these guys were saying last june when people were saying Haren , CC. and harden were on the block, bet they said no way, if the price is right these guys go Peavy, Oswalt, Cain. The padres can’t afford peavy, the astros arent in contention an oswalt is 32 , they want to get younger, Cain would bring the giants some offense, that they lack, they have pitching on there club and in the minors. And if Toronto is not in contention Halladay goes if a team meets there price.
Posted: 04:41 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Hmmmmm. You’re suspect, dude. Highly suspect. :)
The Dipsy
Posted: 04:42 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
these pitchers aren’t gonna get traded now, u have to wait until closer to the deadline. SF doesn’t want to trade Cain, Toronto doesn’t want to trade Halladay. Peavy wants to be in NL Central pretty much.
I’d like to see Cliff Lee.
Posted: 04:44 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Thanks Mdub. To have such a highly sophisticated baseball mind such as yours with me on this topic makes me feel soemone vindicated in my belief system. Keith…I don’t WANT to trade a starter either. But if we HAVE to to get “that” pitcher, well, “man up” I say.
The Dipsy
Posted: 04:46 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
well we can’t do anything except wait, the deadline should be exciting.
Posted: 04:49 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Not necessarily.
The Dipsy
Posted: 04:52 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
I meant we as in us. we can’t do anything.
Posted: 04:54 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Jim
If he would want to come to Philly, I think we might have a good shot to get Peavey. He’s only hurting his team’s chances of getting a huge haul of players by rejecting the most interested parties’ offers–we might be able to trade a bunch of prospects for him and keep our starters like Shane. And while the addition of his payroll to our already huge one scares the hell out of me, I think the front office realizes that our best players are in their prime and are locked up for the next 2 to 3 years–if there’s going to be any time to make a drive at a dynasty, it’s going to be now.
Also, what about Guthrie on the Orioles? We probably wouldn’t have to give that much away since the O’s aren’t in contention and are always looking for talented young players to rebuild, maybe only a few prospects (some combination of Carrasco/Mayberry/Donald since they won’t need a catcher with Weiters in their system). He could be a solid #3, which is all we would need if Myers keeps up this pace.
Posted: 05:01 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 4daysrest.com
We did a piece that touches on this over at the web site, but more specifically on the impact of Raul Ibanez at the quarter-of-the-way mark. On ESPN’s First Take this morning, two journalists were duking it out over the NL and AL MVP’s if the voting ended today. Raul Ibanez was the obvious choice, and I, as a Phillies fan, was damn proud to hear it.
Posted: 05:04 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Jim this is what drives me nuts. Guthrie another Blanton type, and you want to give up Carrasco, mayberry donald for him. He is thirty years old. and not a number two that is what we need. I rather put carrasco out there tommorrow then this guy, no disrespect, but we need to get aggressive and get a top of the rotation guy.
Posted: 05:13 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Once the Blue Jays fall out of the race, and they will, Halladay may become available. But a question. Why must a guy have to “become available” in order to get him? Sometimes you just have to blow another team away in orer to get something done. Thats how the Sixers got Doc. Thats how we got Von Hayes. Thats how the Flyers got Lindros. In 20 years, who’s gonna even hear of Lou Marson or Luke Donald or Carlos Carrasco? But the’ll rememeber Roy Halladay winning games 1,4,7 of the World Series. And this is not rocket science. In fact, I’ve heard tell thats its not all that different from fantasy baseball in one respect. Here’s an illustration:
Amaro: What do you want for Halladay?
Blue Jays GM: Not tradin him.
Amaro: Not even for so an so and so and so?
Blue Jays GM: Hmmmmmmm. Thats interesting. Would you through in Joe Blo, too?
Amaro; If you throw in your Joe Blo.
Blue Jays GM: Done.
Amaro: I’ll get the paperwork over to you.
“Every man has his price”
The Dipsy
Posted: 05:38 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 joedad
How’s that Raul Ibanez over Milton Bradley signing looking these days?
Posted: 05:43 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Boy I was the one who wanted Bradley instead. See dipsy we all make mistakes, BUT I WANT HALLADAY. If he is available my offer is Drabek, donald, carrasco, brown, to start.
Posted: 05:48 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
thats too much even for halladay when he could walk away in a year or two. You go like Werth or Shane, Carrasco, Marson. Thats VERY generous.
Posted: 06:00 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
You want Halladay, along with every other team in the league.
Luke Donald? I believe his name is Jason.
IMO it is stupid to trade the farm for a pitcher your going to rent, if you going to get a big name pitcher, make sure hes on the team for at least 2 years.
Their not going to trade for a Halladay, a Cain, or a Peavy, so stop wishing. They don’t necessarily need one of them anyway.
Hamels – #1, Myers – #2, #3? Happ – #4, Blanton/Moyer – #5
Do you really think their going to go out and get one of those guys? I’m not saying i wouldn’t trade Werth or Vic for one of them along with farm guys, but the Phillies aren’t going to do it and really, they don’t need one of them.
Posted: 06:02 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Maybe you can be flexible with that, but thats the framework. Mayberry is valuable, he allows you to consider trading Werth or Shane for the right pitcher.
You DONT trade away all that though for a guy whos going to leave in a few months, you do it for someone who will be around for AT LEAST one more season, maybe two.
Posted: 06:03 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Also, for Toronto to deal Halladay this year they would have to totally melt down, and fast. Not happening.
Peavy – not happening, the guy basically says he wants to play for the Cubs or the Brewers.
Posted: 06:07 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
Agreed Geoff.
Vic, Werth, Mayberry, ESP Donald & Marson are all expendible for the right pitcher. Not a 2/3 month rental pitcher tho.
Posted: 06:07 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Mdub, gotta go with Geoff on this one. Its a nice package. Give him Savery, too. Halladay might be the best pitcher in baseball. Its him or Santana.
The Dipsy
Posted: 06:07 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
Can’t go trading the Carrasco, Savery, Drabeks away when in 2 or 3 years you might be left with Hamels & Happ. Moyer, Blanton, Myers all probably will be gone by the time they would be ready.
Can’t trade away all of them for 1 guy.
Posted: 06:13 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
The little guy follow the farm. Savery isn’t a top prospect. Carrasco is expendable because of Worley, knapp, pettibone, stutes, Cosart, and flande, and others there farm right now has the players who in two years can replace Werth[brown] Ibanez[ Taylor] pitching Worley or stutes, And any trade for halladay must come with a extension or no deal. You guys see what is given up for top pitchers, why is it so hard to imagine given up some good talent to land a proven ace.
Posted: 06:28 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
Savery was a number 1 pick, how is he not a top prospect?
Posted: 06:33 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
The Little Guy. Luke Donald is the golfer. Shame on me. Savery’s not progressing well. Yes, and you CAN trade all those guys for Halladay. Carrasco’s stock is falling. Savery is not that good…yet. Marson is blocked. Believe it or not we have a DEEP farm system and nowhere to put some guys. Are you serious with that 5 man rotation you trotted out there? Its a joke. I’ll tell ya what. Take all 5 of them and look at their career averages and project that into this year. Guess what? That rotation stinks. Thats right….stinks. A guy…who has made one start this year is penciled in as your #3. Whats that tell ya.
The Dipsy
Posted: 06:44 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
If you read it right i have Happ as a number 4, you jerk off. and i have 3?? They need a number 3, if you seem to forget, the Phillies won the WS with that exact same pitching staff?
So, i want you to explain to me why it is so god awful and how the Brewers, Dodgers, and Rays couldn’t beat them last year, if it is so terrible, your a moron.
“The Little Guy”
Posted: 06:47 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
long time until the deadline
Posted: 06:50 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
My point in all of this is, they don’t have a glaring NEED for any of those top Pitchers.
While it would be a luxury to have any of them, the FO will not trade half their top prospects for someone they don’t necesarily need.
They will get a pitcher like Aaron Cook, to fill the hole they have, and not give up top flight talent for him, because thats smart. The team isn’t built around pitching, its built around a explosive Offense and a Dynamite bullpen.
Posted: 06:56 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
So we’re name calling now eh fucstik? I’ll tell you how: A great offense, a great defense, a great bullpen, and Brett Myers having his Buster Douglas moment. Sorry about missing your #3 though. Actually it should read #2????? See what happens when Myers isn’t Cy Young, Lidge has problems, and Moyer and Blanton leave the monicker of mediocre behind and enter “terrible” territory, both of which I believe they are capable of sustaining by the way. And you’re question is also you’re answer: because they played the Brewers, Dodgers, and D-Rays.
The Dipsy
p.s. Why do they call you “Little Guy”?
Posted: 06:57 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
great point Little Guy
Posted: 06:57 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
P.S. I would love Aaron Cook. But according to you we can’t get him cuz he’s too good.
The Dipsy
Posted: 06:58 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
well the Brewers and Dodgers right now r in the playoffs too . . .
Posted: 06:59 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
The dipsy…”because their the Brewers, LA, and Rays?”
What a great point….GREAT point..
That was actually terrible
Posted: 07:00 PM on May 25, 2009
Posts: 0 The Little Guy
Did you read my last post? They will get someone like Aaron Cook, who they won’t have to give 4 premier prospects for.
Posted: 07:02 PM on May 25, 2009