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Hypothetically, Phillies Could Land Peavy

Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, May 22, 2009 04:00 AM | Comments: 83
Analysis, Posts

If you made camp under the rock Thursday, you saw that the White Sox were devilishly close to a deal for Padres super-pitcher Jake Peavy. Then you saw that Peavy exercised his no-trade clause and rejected the deal. Peavy said his family is where it wants to be; I say Peavy didn’t want to pitch for a team annually ripe with turmoil and currently playing .425 baseball.

Peavy wants to pitch for a contender, and in my eyes, there isn’t a better contender out there than the Philadelphia Phillies.

Of course, it is a tough city in which to play. And the stadium doesn’t allow for pitchers to regularly succeed. And it’s not exactly an area Peavy has welcomed — he’s been known to shoot down the chance of playing for any of the five big-time East Coast teams. Still, if the offer was good, couldn’t the Phillies land Peavy? And what could that offer be?

First, let’s look at the White Sox were giving up to get Peavy: We know prospects Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard were on the table. Speculation was Lance Broadway was also out there. Another prospect wasn’t known, but it was likely a lesser prospect, though some wrote it could’ve been Gordon Beckham. Let’s look at the three known or speculated:

Chicago’s Pot

Poreda, 22, LHP, AA. One of Chicago’s top two prospects the last two seasons, Poreda has wicked control for a power left-hander. Very much in the Cole Hamels mode, but not at his level. More a potential setup man/closer.

Richard, 25, LHP, MLB. A second-year big-leaguer, Richard has a nice sinker and good control. This season he has moved from the bullpen to rotation, putting up fair numbers (27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 15 K, 11 BB).

Broadway, 25, RHP, MLB. Finally stabilizing himself, Broadway has been pretty good out of the Chicago bullpen. This season he’s 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA, 7 K and 7 BB in 12.2 innings. Not a lot of work. He was the Sox’ third-best prospect in 2007.

Clearly the White Sox have promising young arms, and that’s what it would take to land Peavy. Poreda is a nice prospect and could become a standout mid-level starter or back-end reliever. Richard is a nice back-rotation piece, and Broadway could be a successful reliever. The Phillies can match this:

Phillies’ Pot

Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Antonio Bastardo.

Carrasco, 22, is having a rough season in triple-A, but he’s been successful everywhere else with good strikeout rates. To me, he’s definitely a big-league pitcher when he’s ready, and he’s almost ready. Like Poreda, he projects as a mid-rotation piece or back-bullpen guy, likely being better than an innings eater.

Happ, 26, is rotation-ready, and he’s starting Saturday. He’s proven himself through a few big-league seasons, now hurling a 2.49 ERA with 17 K and 9 BB in 21.2 innings this season. Like Richard he has a good breaking pitch and good control.

Bastardo is like Broadway in that he’s an overpowering reliever. Bastardo could start, of course, but he projects even better against left-handed hitting alone. His strikeout rates are great, his ERA has been ridiculous. At 23, it’s possible Bastardo is ready for a call north now.

I could see if the White Sox wanted lefty Kyle Drabek (who seems closer to Poreda in level and potential), but that might make the Phils’ pot too great. The bottom line is the Phillies have the chips to trade for Jake Peavy, at least without knowing the value of the fourth chip.

Pull The Trigger?

Would I pull that trigger? Maybe — it would clearly gut pitching depth in the system, but it immediately solidifies a horrible rotation and positions the Phillies as the clear National League favorite at a time when the Phils are only looking to win championships. Then again, Peavy has been taxed already in his career (more than 1,300 innings, and only at age 28). And remember, the Phils don’t have a pick in this year’s draft until the 70s.

In short, Ruben Amaro Jr. would have to be damn confident in his big-league team to win a second-consecutive championship. It would be a clear-cut win-now move.

 
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  • Posts: 0 Andrew R.

    This just would not happen. Peavy wants to pitch somewhere where it’s big, and under the radar. I really don’t think he cares about winning. His post-season numbers and numbers down the stretch are terrible. NOT a big-game pitcher at all. I also have to think there would be an interest in Marson as well.

    It’s fun to imagine a rotation with Peavy in it, but this will never happen. Dream on.

     
  • Posts: 0 Craig

    Peavy is owed an awful lot of money on the remainder of his contract. Think it’s 11m this year then15m, 18m and a option of 22m.

    He’s already pitched a hell of a lot of innings for someone who’s under 30. Somewhere in the region of 1300 up to this point in his career.

    Is it worth giving up the farm plus paying the big contract?

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff Y.

    Keep JA Happ. He will be an 18 game winner in the future.

     
  • Posts: 0 Lewisauce

    I’d do it, but it sounds like Peavy won’t. He likes playing in big ballparks located in cities where very few people give a shit about his performance. Maybe that comes off harsh, but he doesn’t want to pitch in the AL, he doesn’t want to pitch for a big East-Coast team. That tells me one thing: he has no drive, no desire to win, no interest in pressure. If he could steel himself mentally, he’d be OK here, maybe even really good, what with this defense behind him, this bullpen backing him up, and this offense cushioning him.

    But Andrew R. is right. I hate to say it, but Peavy’s a wuss, and that’s why he wouldn’t want to be here. Contender? I don’t think he gives a damn. He wants to do well in dumpy markets and collect his big paycheck.

    That being said, Amarro should at least make the offer. You know the Muts will make the offer; we at least have to put something on the table. We have a shot to win back to back (to back? Our core is intact for next year as well), so we should take it. Don’t worry about the Pharm if you can build a dynasty now.

     
  • Posts: 0 Kevin

    Would I welcome Peavy to Philadelphia? Of course. I am not typically one to savor prospects like some people so I say if the Phillies had a chance to get a great talent like Peavy appears to be and you have to give up some prospects, a team that has won a World Championship should do it.

    However, I am not affiliated with the Phillies and I would guess that they will not make any real big trades. The only reason being that they are still paying players like Adam Eaton (who got torched again last night) and Geoff Jenkins. Already with their highest payroll ever I’m not so sure the team will look to take on more.

    But I say do what it takes to win. You are the World Champions. Do what it takes to defend that title.

     
  • Posts: 0 SpinJamin

    Besides the fact that Peavy will probably not accept a trade to Philadelphia I say the same reasons as anyone else does. The money. My opinion is that the Mets will probably make a bid for the guy and he could land there. That would definitely bolster them up huge. I do not want to see that happen, but I don’t know if the Phillies really have a choice in the matter here.

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    Tim I really think he comes east for money. Right now he knows after next year he will not get 22 million from the padres. so he will become a free agent. The owner has said he wants to be under 40 million ,and the padres don’t want to deal with the dodgers, fan francicso might be a team that he could go to if they will pay that money. So in my opinion the teams that have the shot are boston, yankees, cubs[if the new oweners okay it and that is a big if] braves are mention by mlb and mets. who’s owners have said spend what it takes to win. The braves and boston and us have the prospects to go after him. we could start with bastardo, carrasco, taylor or brown plus lower level like galvis or knapp. What is being reported in the peavy trade with chicago is two relief pitcher, one almost twenty six, the other is a romano type this makes me think padres really want to unload him because of salary. That package is in a breakdown three relief pitchers and a lower level prospect,For a number 1 cy winner pitcher. not a lot . When people talk its chicago top prospect big deal there pitching stiniks so how good is that. If this kid was that good he would be in there rotation.Tim one of the things that people have to realize is if we give up these prospect and do what we did last draft that is bust slot for good hard to sign high school kid, we can replensish the system. that is what the draft is for, use prospect to get the missing pieces to your team when you are close, or build a great team through the draft.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    You know kills me:

    1) Andrew knows that Peavy wants to pitch “somehwre where its big, under the radar”.;
    2) Lewissauce purports to know that Peavy doesn’nt wanna pitch in the AL or for a big city east coast team;

    I don’t recall Peavy making these statements so these towo guts must know Peavy persoanlly and have spoken to him. If so, maybe they could go out and have a beer with him and ask him whether he would trade his no trade clause to come here. Short of that:

    (Tim is the aption for 2012 a club option?)

    To me that package Tim envisions is a reasonable one. If that were to happen our cupboard would not be bare. Savery would still be here as well as our best pitching prospect, Drabek. So would Vance Worley. Not to mention the position players. Quite simply, I think our farm system could survive that hit. Hamels and Peavy are young and would form a great 1-2 for years to come. The team has flexibility by not being tied to Blanton or Myers beyond this year. Spin James, Peavi is already locked up for years so money is not an issue. He won’t get more. I would do Tim’s deal in a second and drive everyone to the airport. Happ may have a decent career.

    We are in “win now” mode and lets act like it.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Sorry about all the typos in my previous post.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    Sorry on last point salary. peavy next season get I believe 11 million and 22 next year myers and blanton nets us 17 million next season so the money without a new contract is there. actually next year we are just without myers saving a million. And to answer the question of who takes blanton place its drabek. he is second in minor league baseball in stikeouts that is all of minor league baseball, and then werth doesn’t resign in 2011 and is replace by either brown or taylor the one we don’t trade.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    I guess I am unclear, and I apologize, as to what MORE financial compensation Peavy would want if traded. His contract ripped up? Mikemike?

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 mikemike

    The Dipsy a quaranteed on the 22 million would be first in my opinion and a extension. My guest 4-5 at 20 million a year. Please stop the Savery talk he is a loogy or relief pitcher at best, right now he is behind bastardo carrasco, worley, stutes, knapp, may, cosart, in other words, his 88 miles an hour fastball with okay secondary stuff makes him, close to a bust as you get.

     
  • Posts: 0 JeffS

    Dipsy – I’m pretty sure I remember news reports quoting him as saying he doesn’t want to go to the AL. Whether they are accurate reports or not, there is a fair basis to believe he doesn’t want to.

    Moreover, if I were a pitcher, I wouldn’t want to go to the AL, either, unless it was as a FA going into the last high paying deal of my career, or if it was a situation where the post season is nearly assured.

     
  • Posts: 0 Greg V.

    I say go all in! Get Jake Peavy on the Phils!

     
  • Posts: 0 RADAR

    Keep Happ.

     
  • Posts: 0 JeffS

    Skip on Peavy – bring Eaton back.

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Well mikemike, I saw Savery was pitching well. Well, he was a hitter at Rice so switch him to righfield if he sucks. 4-5 at 20? Jesus, that a lotta money. How about the guaranteed 22 and a 3 year extension at 20m. Soooooooo, Myers and Blanton split next year so the rotation would be:

    Peavy
    Hamels
    ………….then I guess they would just both have to pitch once every two days is all :)

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Bill

    I heard Mitch Williams on a local ATL radio station yesterday. He seemed to think that Peavy had terrible mechanics that would lead to him breaking down sooner rather than later. I’d hate to see the Phils give up a lot of talent and a lot of money for this guy. Yeah, he’s good. He might help them this year. But for what they would have to give up I don’t think he’s worth it.

     
  • Posts: 0 Brian of CO

    I really honestly dont think Amaro has it in him to make an offer, but then again, I was surprised they were able to close a deal with R. Howard and avoid arbitration for a few years.

     
  • Posts: 0 beta sigma shag

    I don’t get it, trade Happ? Is Peavy going to be a 16-20 game winner in Philadelphia for 3-4 years? Can he pitch at the Bank? IMO i would say no, so I would not pull off this deal. If they did would I say it is a terrible move? NO. I wouldn’t mind seeing him in a phillies uniform, But if I was Rueban I would say no.
    Second JRoll get’s his 1500 hit and 300 stolen base going what 4-6 scoring 2 runs, and an rbi and he can not get the Ashburn Award? And people bitch about espn not mentioning it

     
  • Posts: 0 JeffS

    Phils being Phils, and I don’t want to overvalue the farm, but we have a better record developing pitchers lately than we do bringing them in. The jury is still out on Blanton, IMO, and memories of Garcia and Eaton are still fresh in my mind. Not to compare Peavy to those, but that is a hefty price tag to eat if anything goes wrong.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mike T.

    Speaking of Bastardo – he was just promoted to AAA. I’m excited for this kid. 39:7 K:BB ratio in 34.2 innings. I’m feelin it.

     
  • Posts: 0 nick

    padres need a ss, i’d throw donald in and keep bastardo

    carrasco, happ, donald

    done deal

     
  • Posts: 0 JFA

    Kyle Drabek’s a righty, not a lefty.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mike T.

    If you want to repeat as WS champions – this is the move you make.

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    This sounds alarmingly like the Andy Ashby trade we made back in the day. We traded then top prospect Adam Eaton, look how confused we were, for Ashby who seemed at the peak of his potential with a low ERA. We just need to see that those numbers are very very very tainted, and if he doesn’t work out here then we’re stuck paying a contract thats over 30 mill total in the next 3 years which could be hard to get rid of, similar to Eaton.

    On the other hand trading Carrasco who looks nothing like the prospect he was a year or possibly 2 years ago for a guy that’s ready for the rotation now and can give way to Stutes, Worley, Savery, and Drabek, in 2-3 years may not be a bad idea. It doesn’t gut our system it merely rids us of the players that right now can’t play themselves into the rotation.

     
  • Posts: 0 Justin

    Although I will say Bastardo in my opinion has a much higher potential I think than Carrasco at this point. But I’ll hold that opinion until he pitches for Lehigh this weekend against the Bulls

     
  • Posts: 0 JeffS

    Which day this WE is Bastardo pitching? I may just take a drive to A-town.

     
  • Posts: 0 Moyer The Destroyer

    **** ITS OFFICIAL****

    Adam Eaton is currently ranked last in ERA among all pitchers with more than 25 innings pitched.

    For a while there our starters Blanton, Moyer, Park were making Eaton’s numbers look good! I’m glad to see things are coming back to normal…. the world is making sense again.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Im very pleased that everyone realized that this has NO chance of happening..

    word up PhilliesNation.. you’re all on the ball !!!

     
  • Posts: 0 The Dipsy

    Disagree Don. IF the Padres would take back a package that does not include Happ, and thats a big IF, I would do it. If this things drags on for months with no one stepping up to the plate………maybe? Donald, Carrasco, Blanton (they need to replace Peavy with a body and Blanton is relatively cheap) and perhaps a Galvis? I would do that.

    The Dipsy

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    I* would want Peavy..

    but HE* has a no trade and HE doesn’t want to leave the west coast..

    he said West Coast or Midwest the other day.. he would rather fly uinder the radar then play in front of passionate fans.. I think the Cubs go after him like crazy, and they’ll land him later this season

    They are looking for Top-Prospect pitching in return.. in our case that would cost Carrasco & Drabek (or Bastardo) PLUS probably Donald and another prospect..

    all for a guy with an ERA close to 4.00 away from San Diego.. and he’s making CRAZY money over the next few years..

     
  • Posts: 0 Steve-o

    Don you’ve made the money point right there. He wants to play in the West or Midwest, and last I checked, Philly doesn’t sit in one of those areas. His ERA away from PETCO, the biggest pitchers park in baseball, is not exactly #1 material, and I would be STUNNED if he’d be willing to pitch here, in a major market, in a hitters park.
    The question that we should be asking ourselves is not, “what will it take to get Peavy?”, it’s “What would it take for Peavy to ACCEPT a trade to Philadelphia?”
    That’s what we should be debating.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Go after someone else, stay away from this guy. He is a fraud. I told you all Matt Holliday would struggle after leaving Colorado and that the Phillies shouldve stayed away, and they did. This is the same thing. Peavy would be an average starting pitching at Citizens Bank Park as his road ERA last season was over 4. He cant muster the mental toughness to pitch in Philadelphia or New York. He said he wants to pitch in the midwest or the west and allegedly in the NL. So we have no chance here and its not worth it for someone who in my opinion is going to be a huge bust in another smaller ballpark. He is a flyball/K pitcher and thats what happens to them in hitters parks.

     
  • Posts: 0 christopher

    i like peavy as a pitcher a lot, he’s one of my favorites. i think he’d look great in a phils uni and i’d root him on big time. that said, i don’t see him being a good fit in philadelphia. he’s a fly ball pitcher who, in my opinion, isn’t going to have the longevity as a #1 pitcher in the second half of his career as he’s had in the first. i would have no problem whatsoever with a trade for him, as much as i’d love to see what carrasco can do in the majors eventually. but on the question of whether or not i’d pull the trigger, i’d have to lean towards no.

     
  • Posts: 0 Steve-o

    Also JeffS, Bastardo pitches Saturday. I’d recommend making the drive, he pitches against David Price. An unfair comparison, but it would be real interesting to see how Bastardo stacks up against a fellow lefty prospect, albeit a far superior one.

     
  • Posts: 0 T.O.

    No way would I make this trade if Happ is included in the deal. He is a stud and should remain in a Phils uniform. Peavy is a mediocre pitcher away from PETCO park. You can’t give away our entire minor league pitching staff for a guy who went 10-11 last season. He had a 2.97 ERA for the year, but his road ERA was 4.28 and his strikeout rates declined in a huge way. He is only 28 but has pitched a whole lot of innings in his career. IMO he looks like he is headed for an unhealthy 2nd half of his career.

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.

    Well you all know that I have said day in and day out that the Phillies will not make a big move for a contract guys blah blah

    Here is my take on this.

    If he were to come to Philly I would be all for it, If Ruben could work out a way to get him without giving up the following:

    Drabek
    Happ

    I would be all on that. Send them Blanton, Carrasco, and Savery. You get the best minor league pitcher in the system, on paper at least, a #1 pick and Blanton who does well in big ballparks, with a reasonable salary.

    Peavy is an allstar Cy Young pitcher, you take that to the bank, with him and Hamels and Myers, Happ and Moyer. You could easily move Moyer to the pen and bring up one of our rookies to take that void soon.

    Just my thought I would do this but I am not sure the FO would or Peavy would accept it

     
  • Posts: 0 Memphis

    I agree with a lot on here. Ken Rosenthal has a nice article on it:
    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9598700/Peavy-will-be-better-served-to-wait

    Other suitors will emerge, but the offers may get worse for San Diego. SD may want someone like Victorino and prospects. Who knows what package will work.

    His contract is 11M this year (part of the SD hometown discount), then 15M in 2010, 16M in 2011, 17M in 2012, and a club option for 22M in 2013. To come to Philly (his preferred NL teams are Chicago, St Louis, Houston, LA, Atlanta), Peavy may want that 22M guaranteed and possibly a full no-trade.

    That just seems like too much (even if that road ERA would look awesome in our rotation this year). But we do need something (Bedard?). There just aren’t many top of the rotation guys going to be available.

    This is not just about the rest of the season (we need help NOW), but also who’s going to pitch games 2 & 3 once you get into a playoff series, should we get there. Myers and Blanton did the trick last year, but they just are not the same right now. Money aside, Hamels and Peavy at the top for the next 3-5 years would be damn nice. But I’m just not seeing it, from the point of view of the money, the package, and Peavy agreeing to come.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Why the hell would the Padres take Blanton, Carrasco, and Savery for a Cy Young pitcher in Jake Peavy??

    They’ll get LEGIT top prospects for him, much like what the Indians got for Sabathia last year.. guys that are Top-100 types from Baseball America.. not guys that are the type we’d be willing to give away.

    With every trade rumor, we have to ask would the other team, in this case the Padres, be willing to give X up, for Y … in this case, the Padres wouldn’t give up Peavy for anything short of 3 of our top 5 prospects

    Carrasco, Donald … im sure either Brown, Taylor, or Drabek.. plus another player.. its really just not worth it.. its got no chance to happen.. so the sooner we stop talking about this the better..

    I’m sure we COULD trade for Zach Greinke too.. but it would never happen, so its not worth discussing

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.

    Don!
    They want pitchers not position players!!!!!!!!!

    Carrasco is highly regarded, Savery has had a good year in AA, There are others that we could send as well, I just threw out names people have been throwing.

    I just don’t want Drabek or Happ gone Drabek is a complete stud.

    AND SD is not going to get top prospects for a guy whose salary is insane. The teams with the top prospects don’t have that money.

    So being disgruntled as you seem to be, remember the title of this post is HYPOTHETICAL!!!!

    none of this will happen nor will Peavy come

     
  • Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.

    Remember when Philly traded Abreu, this is a very similiar situation.

    We literally gave him up for free

    They are not unloading Peavy cause they do not like him or don’t want him pitching, they can’t afford him. So they will end up giving him up for next to nothing

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    “none of this will happen nor will Peavy come”

    then why are we all wasting our time on this??

    Why not talk about which players we would/wouldn’t be willing to give up in a trade..

    And let’s be more realistic than last year’s Donald + Carrasco for Roy Halladay trades

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    I dont want Peavy. He has a ton of red flags. We should be talking about Buerhle or if youre going to talk about a guy whos locked up and theres no chance of us trading for at all, you SHOULD be talking about hypothetically trading for Danny Haren.

     
  • Posts: 0 Don M

    Haren isn’t going anywhere.. the JUST resigned him..

    Webb could be available, but that doesn’t make sense either since his value is low for them since he’s been injured..

    If the White Sox were looking to add Peavy.. that make me believe they think they can still win the AL Central.. and if that is the case, they won’t be giving up Buehrle, because Danks and Floyd are both struggling right now.. adding Peavy to Buehrle would give them a GREAT 1-2 punch.. and Danks would be the best #3 in baseball

    Bedard, and Aaron Cook are the possible targets in my mind.. both of those teams aren’t winning anything this year, and would like to get young prospects in return

     
  • Posts: 0 Chris.I

    How could someone even consider the thought of rejecting Peavy in their rotation? First off let me start off saying this…Tim, good article, but we would be shooting for the moon (litterally), and we wouldn’t even go more than 10 stories with this. But to be honest, if this did happen than we would be untouchable.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Mayberry, Carrasco, & Savery is a reasonable package for some other guy. Im not sold on Cliff Lee, but he could help us. Dan Haren isnt on the block but hypotherically hed require more to get. But this package could net you Mark Buerhle perhaps, it could get you Cliff Lee.

    A Smaller package of Savery & Kendrick would be enough to grab Aaron Cook to stabilize the 4th spot in the rotation if they go that route.

     
  • Posts: 0 Mike T.

    historically, haren’s stats take a huge hit as the season progresses. he’d probably be nice with the run support, but he doesn’t appear to be a playoff push type of pitcher. buuuuut, not going to happen.

     
  • Posts: 0 Geoff

    Yeah I agree. Bedard, Cook are gettable targets. Id prefer to reach for someone better than Bedard. However, in the meantime, I think if the Phillies called Colorado RIGHT NOW and offered Kendrick& Savery theyd accept it immediately. Cook could buy us time to stabilitze the back end of the rotation. Ive come around to him a bit as I have with Harang since noticing his increased Sinkerball rate.

     
  • Posts: 0 NJ

    This made me laugh sooo much, the Phils aren’t landing Peavy even if a deal could be matched between the teams.

    He wouldn’t accept a trade here and why would you want a guy who has openly said he doesn’t want to pitch anywhere but pitchers parks… If he’s not confident in his ability to pitch anywhere under and condition how can people truely be excited about him as a legitimate cornerstone of the franchise player. There’s Kurt Warner in the NFL and now Jake Peavey in Major League Baseball who seems to function in his on world… If he doesn’t want to play the game like everyone else he should follow all the other ex-vets to the Newark Bears and show of his sub 1 ERA because this guy isn’t serious about playing baseball.

    That was a good deal for him going to Chicago, he should have taken it.

     
 
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