Hypothetically, Phillies Could Land Peavy
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Fri, May 22, 2009 04:00 AM | Comments: 83
Analysis, Posts

If you made camp under the rock Thursday, you saw that the White Sox were devilishly close to a deal for Padres super-pitcher Jake Peavy. Then you saw that Peavy exercised his no-trade clause and rejected the deal. Peavy said his family is where it wants to be; I say Peavy didn’t want to pitch for a team annually ripe with turmoil and currently playing .425 baseball.
Peavy wants to pitch for a contender, and in my eyes, there isn’t a better contender out there than the Philadelphia Phillies.
Of course, it is a tough city in which to play. And the stadium doesn’t allow for pitchers to regularly succeed. And it’s not exactly an area Peavy has welcomed — he’s been known to shoot down the chance of playing for any of the five big-time East Coast teams. Still, if the offer was good, couldn’t the Phillies land Peavy? And what could that offer be?
First, let’s look at the White Sox were giving up to get Peavy: We know prospects Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard were on the table. Speculation was Lance Broadway was also out there. Another prospect wasn’t known, but it was likely a lesser prospect, though some wrote it could’ve been Gordon Beckham. Let’s look at the three known or speculated:
Chicago’s Pot
Poreda, 22, LHP, AA. One of Chicago’s top two prospects the last two seasons, Poreda has wicked control for a power left-hander. Very much in the Cole Hamels mode, but not at his level. More a potential setup man/closer.
Richard, 25, LHP, MLB. A second-year big-leaguer, Richard has a nice sinker and good control. This season he has moved from the bullpen to rotation, putting up fair numbers (27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 15 K, 11 BB).
Broadway, 25, RHP, MLB. Finally stabilizing himself, Broadway has been pretty good out of the Chicago bullpen. This season he’s 0-1 with a 2.84 ERA, 7 K and 7 BB in 12.2 innings. Not a lot of work. He was the Sox’ third-best prospect in 2007.
Clearly the White Sox have promising young arms, and that’s what it would take to land Peavy. Poreda is a nice prospect and could become a standout mid-level starter or back-end reliever. Richard is a nice back-rotation piece, and Broadway could be a successful reliever. The Phillies can match this:
Phillies’ Pot
Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Antonio Bastardo.
Carrasco, 22, is having a rough season in triple-A, but he’s been successful everywhere else with good strikeout rates. To me, he’s definitely a big-league pitcher when he’s ready, and he’s almost ready. Like Poreda, he projects as a mid-rotation piece or back-bullpen guy, likely being better than an innings eater.
Happ, 26, is rotation-ready, and he’s starting Saturday. He’s proven himself through a few big-league seasons, now hurling a 2.49 ERA with 17 K and 9 BB in 21.2 innings this season. Like Richard he has a good breaking pitch and good control.
Bastardo is like Broadway in that he’s an overpowering reliever. Bastardo could start, of course, but he projects even better against left-handed hitting alone. His strikeout rates are great, his ERA has been ridiculous. At 23, it’s possible Bastardo is ready for a call north now.
I could see if the White Sox wanted lefty Kyle Drabek (who seems closer to Poreda in level and potential), but that might make the Phils’ pot too great. The bottom line is the Phillies have the chips to trade for Jake Peavy, at least without knowing the value of the fourth chip.
Pull The Trigger?
Would I pull that trigger? Maybe — it would clearly gut pitching depth in the system, but it immediately solidifies a horrible rotation and positions the Phillies as the clear National League favorite at a time when the Phils are only looking to win championships. Then again, Peavy has been taxed already in his career (more than 1,300 innings, and only at age 28). And remember, the Phils don’t have a pick in this year’s draft until the 70s.
In short, Ruben Amaro Jr. would have to be damn confident in his big-league team to win a second-consecutive championship. It would be a clear-cut win-now move.
















Posts: 0 JeffS
Geoff – I’d rather try to package Carrasco with Savery. Don’t know if Carrasco’s value has fallen too much already, though. I was not as impressed wiith him this year as I hoped to be.
Posted: 01:00 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 JeffS
Sorry – I meant “THAN,” not “WITH” Savery.
Posted: 01:01 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Gary B
Peavy isn’t worth it…it’s stil ltoo early and I would hate to get rid of Happ just as he is starting to show what he can do.
Posted: 01:09 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
Cook and Bedard aren’t better than Peavy.
Posted: 01:44 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Did anyone on here say that Cook and Bedard WERE better than Peavy?
Posted: 01:55 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Peavy probleably won’t come here, but you try, If the padres would turn down donald, carrasco or bastardo, Brown, and other lower level like knapp they are crazy its a better package then the white sox offered three relief pitchers one is almost 26. brown who is one of the top outfield prospect in the minors only jason heyood a brave young kid and martinez are rated higher, by keith law, second remember when we said C.C. wanted to go to the west coast, didn’t that change when he got the money. In this game money talks. But anyone who comes on here and says he can’t win in cbp doesn’t know a thing about sports. a young cy winning pitcher. and to you Geoff read my post the rotation would be Hamel. Peavy, happ carrasco next season with drabek as a possible , or worley, or kendrick they would be the fifth as far as money, if myers resign or goes to arb he get 12 or better plus you replace blantons 5 million with happ and his 400 thousand so it almost pays for peavy.
Posted: 02:02 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Sorry one last thing if you think you can get a decent and I said decent for kendrick and savery what are you smoking. both are not even decent prospect, savery isn’t pitching good. people are calling for him to go to a positon and see if he can hit.
Posted: 02:04 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
WHy would the Phillies give up “Donald, Carrasco, Brown, and Knapp” for a pitcher that makes a ton of money, when we already have the highest payroll in team history..
Posted: 02:11 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.
The reason we discuss this Don,
Is cause we can. The title states what we are doing dreaming, not being realistic.
Come on lighten up a little, if you do not want to discuss than don’t post.
Period
We will continue our fun of debating what won’t happen :)
Posted: 02:14 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
we shouldn’t trade for a pitcher unless he’s like a solid # 2 like Peavy.
Posted: 02:28 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
and yea Don, calm down it’s just discussion.
Posted: 02:30 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Because he makes them stronger, second the added payroll will be okay with blanton, meyers gone next year replace with peavy and happ at low salary, bastardo at low salary and either drabek or someone like worley or stutes or kendrick at low salary, donald is a ulitily in ever one mind but the people on here and one guy on phuture phillies, It’s either brown or taylor to get it done both are good prospect, I am tired of the low level blantons , eatons , types go get a true stud, and lets get this team back to the series. I didn’t mention moyer because I really don’t know what is going to happen with him he could be in next years rotation if they feel a rotation of Hamel. Peavy [if we get him] happ, bastardo, might be too young on the back end. we have the highest payroll in history because we ate how much in salary this year by my count its 3 million for tome, 8.5 for eaton and jenkins 7 that’s a lot of money next year it goes away, with some raises for howard , rollins, and hamels but not that much. plus I really believe myers and blanton are gone,
Posted: 02:36 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Alright.. well im signing off for now then..
have fun coming up with ways we can get Albert Pujols in a trade for Eric Bruntlett and Chris Coste, and find a way to have Pujols DH for us
We might as well target Santana from the Mets and Lincecum from the Giants too.. I’d be willing to give up Greg Dobbs and Scott Eyre for either of them
HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY EVERYONE.. THINK ABOUT WHY YOU HAVE THE DAY OFF!
Posted: 02:38 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
That like a little kid not getting his way and crying to get it. Don thought better of you, guess you only like to post when people agree with you. mention a mvp like pujols and santan in stupid trade and compare it to a guy is on the trade market is really below your normal post, maybe you had a bad day at work . have a nice day,[I WOULD POST A SMILEY FACE BUT DON'T KNOW HOW]
Posted: 02:51 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
: ) without the space makes the :)
Posted: 02:58 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
others include
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Posted: 03:00 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Keith thank you. each day I learn something .
Posted: 03:01 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
We went through this last year when people were crying that we didn’t get CC Sabathia.. when really, it was never, ever, ever going to happen.. so Im not sure why people got their hopes up?
Peavy isn’t coming here.. and the sooner everyone realizes that the better..
Players that have a chance to land here are Bedard and Cook.. and for some reason the comments after that had to deal with how neither of them are better than Peavy. Which is true but has nothing to do with anything..
Peavy wants to stay in the NL (which we are in) he also wants to play on the West coast or the Midwest (which we are not near).. He will cost a boatload in prospects, and gets paid a crazy salar over the remaining years of his contract. Given those factors, along with the Phillies Front Office reluctant to give up top prospects in trades.. I think its 99.9% certain that Peavy isn’t coming here. ;)
Posted: 03:16 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
i think, “salar” is short for SALARY
Posted: 03:18 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
but why should we get Bedard and Cook? it’s not like they are much better than what we have already. I wouldn’t trade for them. I would stick with who we have if we aren’t getting someone like Peavy.
Posted: 03:19 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Mazinman
I think the one mistake in your analysis, Tim, is that you are trying to match the White Sox’s offer. Honestly, at this point, I don’t think we have to give up that much.
I think there were some very important things in the articles on ESPN which were published during this situation. First I recall Peavy’s agent saying that any of his five favorite teams could make a deal for him right now. The fact that they are not tells me that there is no interest right now of killing a farm system for him.
Also, in the same article, it was mentioned that the Padres are 5 million or so over the budget their owner put for this year so, one would imagine, they are under financial pressure to trade him.
So, basically, the best offer they had on the table just got shot down by Peavy so we don’t need to compete with the White Soxs anymore. I gotta imagine the Pads don’t want to trade him to the Dodgers and the Cubs don’t seem to be in the running for him anymore.
Without any team throwing their farm system at the Padres then we don’t need to do it either. Make a smart, controlled trade offer to the Pads and then let the pressure of them needing to fix their budget work for us.
As for Peavy wanting to come here? Thats the ultimate unknown and a bridge we worry about crossing once we get to it.
Posted: 03:23 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
Hamels
Peavy
Myers
Blanton
Happ
with Moyer pitching against teams like the Marlins and Nationals ;)
Posted: 03:26 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.
Yeah alittle disappointed Don, hope you have a good weekend
:)
Posted: 03:27 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
maybe he’ll go to the Brewers . . .
Posted: 03:28 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.
We definitely could do the deal if it is right, but SD doesn’t have a choice, they cannot afford to pay him after next year. They will eventually if no takers that Peavy wants will take whatever deal he will agree on. That is why full no trade clauses stink.
Remember Abreu, we gave away an allstar in his prime for Nothing. Not even good prospects to lose his salary.
That sounds what Peavy will end up being given away. I just don’t think it would even remotely get done here…. Would be nice but highly unlikely.
Posted: 03:34 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Bedard would be the #2 on our staff… Cook is a ground ball pitcher that has managed to keep a career ERA about the same as Brett Myers, while pitching in Coor’s Field
actually their AWAY ERA’s.. Cook = 4.06 in his career, Myers = 4.71
Cook is a move that would let you improve your rotation, without having to give up your best prospects in return.. you could probably make a deal that included Kyle Kendrick (nowhere to go in our organization), Brown -or- Taylor, and a lesser prospect..
OR.. you could give up all your best prospects for Jake Peavy, who has an AWAY ERA of 3.82 …. Which is VERY GOOD, but not GREAT
Cook’s Ground Ball rate is 56%
Peavy’s is 41%
Cole Hamels is 40%
Jamie Moyer is 44%
Brett Myers is 47%
Derek Lowe 60%
Brandon Webb 64%
My point being that Peavy wouldn’t guarantee anything.. you would have to give up way more than he’s worth to obtain him.. and then you have to pay him the world each season anyway..
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/02/post_6.php
Posted: 03:39 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Jeff of No Va go to top post the phillies and padres are in trade discussion. This is according to the fan radio in new york. Even if it doesn’t happen at least they are trying. that was my point.Do you think don is allright?
Posted: 03:39 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Keith
well we should’ve signed Derek Lowe. oh well lol.
Posted: 03:42 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.
I missed that one Mike where should I be looking link please. I think Ruben is more daring than Pat is so you never know
Posted: 03:43 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
Mazinman: My initial point was basically to match the Sox offer. Just to prove the Phils could do it.
Posted: 05:17 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 The Dipsy
Well, as the Dipsy said in his post setting his odds on the Phils acquiring certain pitchers this summers, Aaron Cook would be the favorite (5:1). He is taylor made for the Phils. A good pitcher (damn good) at anaverage picher’s rice. A 4.06 era in Coors Field? Drop that down to a 3.45 or so here. By the way, Eric Bedard is currently second at 9:1. Teams are gonna be all over Cook’s jock once July rolls around, that is if they’re not already.
The Dipsy
Posted: 05:27 PM on May 22, 2009
Posts: 0 Joe Johnson
You can prognosticate all you want… but Peavy has said he wants to stay in Southern California because of his family. Sure he wants to win, but it’s not the money (say what you want). He doesn’t want to pitch in Chicago or Philadelphia… or anywhere else he’d have to move or be away from his family. Take the man at his word for crying out loud. Just because lots of other people don’t mean what they say doesn’t mean this guy is that way. Let GM’s talk all they want, but because of Peavy’s no-trade clause, they are not in control of this situation… he is.
Posted: 12:55 PM on May 28, 2009
Posts: 0 wusthof knives
Just thought i’d comment and say neat theme, did you code it yourself? Looksgreat.
Posted: 05:34 AM on July 2, 2010