Kyle Lohse’s Resurgence Offers Second Look At Dubee
Posted by Tim Malcolm, Mon, May 04, 2009 02:47 PM | Comments: 40
Analysis, Posts
The Phillies could have signed Kyle Lohse to a contract after the 2007 season; instead, they thought the right-hander was nothing more than a back-end scratch, offering him nowhere close to the price upon which he and agent Scott Boras insisted. Lohse wanted years and close to Carlos Silva buck. The Phils weren’t touching that.
And yet, Lohse has quietly become one of the National League’s best starters. In 2008 he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA. He threw 200 innings. Even his 1.300 WHIP was acceptable. And so far in 2009, Lohse is 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA. He is currently fifth in the NL in ERA.
Tonight the Phillies face Lohse again. He has already schooled his former team (2-0, 3.38 ERA in 2008). But how? Wasn’t this the same Lohse who got lit up in game two of the 2007 Division Series?
Not quite.
Look at Lohse’s ground ball rates:
2006 (w/MIN, CIN): 1.15 GB/FB
2007 (w/CIN, PHI): 0.89 GB/FB
2008 (w/STL): 1.43 GB/FB
2009 (w/STL): 1.48 GB/FB
Lohse had a terrible year keeping it down in 2007, still, he improved tremendously even upon his career averages since moving to Saint Louis. So is it pitch choice? Not quite – though he has used his fastball a bit more since coming to Saint Louis, he’s still throwing his slider and curve.
What about park factors?
Busch Stadium is 26th in home run factor, while Citizens Bank Park and Great American Ballpark are 13th and 11th, respectively, in 2009. Yes, the latter parks are notoriously better home run parks, but that wouldn’t change the huge spike in ground ball rates. Clearly Lohse is doing something to get his fastball lower in the zone. Basically, his stuff has improved.
And it completely calls into question coaching. We’ve all heard about the tremendous work of Saint Louis Pitching Coach Dave Duncan. Here’s a guy who’s found a diamond out of Jeff Suppan. He resurrected Braden Looper. Yes, he’s a great coach, and suddenly, he’s made Lohse a valuable “get ‘em to hit it to the fielders” pitcher. Aka, the kind of pitcher the Phillies – and most undisciplined free-swinging teams – can’t hit. So what of his counterpart tonight, Joe Blanton?
Blanton – like Lohse – has a slew of pitches without one dominant out pitch. To be effective, Blanton – like Lohse – has to position his pitches correctly. But Blanton – unlike Lohse – is trending toward the 5.00-ERA range for his career and is having a difficult 2009. And Blanton – unlike Lohse – doesn’t have Duncan. He has Rich Dubee.
Yes, it’s now a pitching coach column. Is Rich Dubee good at all? Can we cite him as the reason that 2008 pitching staff performed so well? Or was it mostly good luck, health and organization? What of Blanton, who can’t keep a pitch below the belt? And what of Lohse, who lucked out in Philadelphia, but now looks like Derek Lowe in Saint Louis? What of Dubee?
Posts: 0 Don M
Wasn’t Dubee the coach of some very good Marlin’s staffs too?? Last year, all of our pitchers had good seasons..
At some point Dubee and/or Ruiz need to get some credit.. it seems like some people are still really hesitant to give them their due
Posted: 03:07 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Jason
The real Phillies pitching coach is Jamie Moyer.
Dubee is just a placeholder till the end of this season when that position officially becomes Moyers.
And if you have to hate on Dubee for Lohse and/or Blanton . . . He has to be commended for the work he did with Kendrick (at least at first), Madson, Romero, and Eyre, right?
Maybe he’s just better off dealing with bullpen guys.
Posted: 03:08 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Jeff of NoVa.
Hey Tim,
Great topic starter.
I have been a big skeptic of Dubee for years. Not sure what other options there are, but this year this group should have been more ready for the start of the season.
Some of that is Dubee’s lack of guidance. We will not have Moyer forever, we need a pitching coach that doesn’t need one of his pitchers to be the pitching coach for the best pitcher on the staff.
Posted: 03:09 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Troll
How about some image optimization?
That image is like 2MB dude
Posted: 03:12 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Mark Wiley was the Marlins pitching coach 1997-2003. Im pretty sure Rich Dubee had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with those staffs that won the WS.
Hes not good with starting pitching in my opinion, I think hes better with reievers. Dave Duncan is the best pitching coach in baseball. HE takes pitchers who have hit roadblocks, teaches them to locate sinkerballs and have good off speed and breaking stuff. he rebuilds pitchers and hes damn good at it. rich dubee has been a problem for some time. Its like hes not getting through to some guys at all. Since coming here Blantons velocity went down. Lohses went up since coming here…Most of our own internal guys were built up through the minors and Dubee didnt directly influence them. Im sure he helped a few of these guys, but not nearly all of them.
Take a look at guys liek Condrey and Durbin – I think Rich Dubee has really really helped those guys a lot. But he doesnt appear to have doen much for Blanton and I think he really screwed up Myers. Myers improved when he went to the minors and got AWAY from rich dubee…
Posted: 03:23 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Bruce
I agree with Don. Tim is just looking for something to create feedbacks here. So now we are to call in question Dubee’s ability as pitching coach? That’s comical. With the great success of last year’s bullpen and Hamels and Myers’ turnaround success. And the continued improvements we see this year with Condrey, Durbin and Madson. I think it’s best to hold off any premature judgement on Dubee.
Posted: 03:24 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Hamels turnaround? He was coached by other people in the minor leagues…not buying that one. Myers turned around AWAY form Dubee. Blanton has gotten worse with Dubees influence. Moyer is his own coach. Kendrick has to now be rebuilt by a new coach in the minor leagues. Eaton was already bad so I wont fault Dubee for that. Park is also a bad starter.
I dont think Dubee knows how to coach starting pitching to the level that some of these other guys do. They really do have a good bullpen though, but is that more due to the Bullpen coach? or Dubee? Who knows…
The circumstantial evidence is undeniable though. Dave Duncan is really that much better though. Hes universally recognized as the best pitching coach in baseball much like Davey Lopes is the most respected Baserunning coach in baseball…
Posted: 03:28 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 ryan
you can’t blame Rich Dubee for Kyle Lohse. first of all, Lohse was only here for a half a season and he was never any good before he got here. he was merely a mediocre run of the mill , middle to back of the rotation pitcher.
Posted: 03:34 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
I dont think Tim was looking to bach Dubee… and I’m definitely not trying to bash Tim’s post..
Dubee isn’t Dave Duncan.. nobody is..
But Dubee and Ruiz deserve some sort of credit here.. neither one of them are the ones leaving 88mph “fastballs” sitting belt-high over the heart of the plate
(Dubee is credited as the Marlins Pitching Coach from 1998-2001 on Baseball Reference.com)* Not sure that matters though..
Posted: 03:37 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Albert
I always wonder things like this myself. More so about Thompson than Dubee, but how do you measure a pitching/hitting coach’s value? I think it is really hard to tell to be honest.
This thread never would of been posted last year with Lidge being reborn, Moyer defying age, Hamels rise to super stardom, and Myers second half (not to mention Durbin, Condry,R omero, and Madson). At what point are these guys just performing well because they have talent, or is it because Dubee says, “Hey Madson, you could be throwing 97 mph and crushing people with your changeup if you make this change to your mechanics.” This is coming out because our starters are stinking up the joint. Now is this because they are slumping or because Dubee isn’t coaching them correctly?
I think ups and downs have more to do with a player themselves rather than a coach. The only people who can say how well a coach is doing is the players and the organization. Steve Smith was an obvious disaster and was let go to start the year. When the Phillies’ offense went to sleep in interleague play last year I would say every game, “What the hell is Thompson coaching these guys to do, because it hasn’t been working for weeks now.” If there was a problem with a coach Ruben would remedy the situation for sure, and our current problems with pitching have to do more with the players than Dubee.
Posted: 03:38 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
google mark wiley…
Posted: 03:45 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 RG
A few things:
1. We won a world series last year on the shoulders of the pitching staff with Dubee as the coach.
2. We’ve only played 22 games this year.
3. Are the Phillies an, “undisciplined free-swinging team?” Victorino and Howard certainly fit the bill. Jimmy and Feliz seem to be taking strides to get better here, but I would argue that they fall into that category as well… Maybe the Phils are. I just didn’t realize this is the case. When I think of the Phillies offense I picture the quality at bats we get out of Utley, Ibanez, and Werth.
Posted: 03:47 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
I’m not using this thread to bash Dubee. It’s discussion only. Just raising a topic.
Posted: 03:56 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 1650 Tim Malcolm
RG: Charlie Manuel’s philosophy has always been: See the ball, hit the ball.
Posted: 03:57 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
in 2005, Mark Wiley joined the Florida Marlins as pitching coach… and then again for 2008
Posted: 03:58 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Look to me if the best pitching coach is Duncan and you want to win, you go after him overpay . His record is unbelievable. Was Dubee the pitching coach when we brought up Floyd? I just find it hard to believe after seeing franklin, that anyone could help him. And I am not a scout or G.M. so I don’t know how good Dubee is, but I would love to have duncan.
Posted: 04:04 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
Duncan is LaRussa’s guy I think.??..
I don’t think anyone can get him as long as LaRussa is still managing in the Majors
Posted: 04:14 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Plus I just thought of it doesn’t Duncan kid play for them?
Posted: 04:23 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Ed
Yes Chris Duncan who is an OF for the Cards is Dave Duncans son. Good thing his dad isn’t the hitting coach. Could you imagine dealing with him if you were in a slump?
Posted: 04:25 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 RG
Tim, I wasn’t arguing the point; it just took me by surprise. That’s not the way I think of the Phils’ offense, but maybe it should be.
Since you brought it up… I always thought that saying referred to the mechanics of hitting rather than a hitter’s pitch selection strategy. That’s really neither here nor there – your point is that Charlie Manuel believes in aggressive free swinging rather than patience and working a good count. I got ya, but regardless of Charlie’s philosophy, my question is whether or not the Phillies are undisciplined?
Posted: 04:36 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Matt S
What about Duncans’ record of getting pitchers injured. Can that be attributed to the pitching coach as well?
Posted: 04:38 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Brad Arnsberg began the 2003 season as the marlins pitching coach before being fired and replaced. dubee was the minor lg pitching coordinator (NOT coach) h in florida from 1995-1997, then became their coach in 1998-2001 (when they won…NO world series), then NEVER returned to florida when they won their second world series.
So…he was there, but it doesnt look like he was the guy HANDS ON coaching those guys in the minors in 1995-7
Posted: 04:43 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Evan
I don’t think the pitching coach can have a huge influence on the staff where he could just turn a 3-4th starter into an ace. The pitching coach’s primary job is to keep pitchers mechanics consistent so they can throw the pitches that have made them successful in the past. A pitcher is developed in the minors. Maybe Dubee is no good at pinpointing what’s wrong with Park and Blanton’s mechanics, why they can’t keep the ball down.
Loshe really was a missed opportunity by the Phils. They offered him pretty much the same money he ended up getting from the Cards, but knowing what we know now, he’d be so much better than Blanton and the Phils would’ve been better if they’d offered him more.
Posted: 04:53 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Albert
Does Kyle Lojse hit a HR in the WS? I don’t know about that one haha
Posted: 04:59 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
A pitching coach can’t have a huge effect on a staff. I am nuts but you didn’t say that as we show how duncan has turned PINERO AND FRANKLIN RYAN SINKING FRANKLIN INTO A GOOD CLOSER. But I know that I misread that statement sorry,
Posted: 05:08 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Chris.I
Lohse is a great pitcher, and there is nothing we can say take that can say otherwise. The Phils just have to be patient with him tonight if we plan on winning this game tonight. Howard especially…I’m tired of watching him swing at every first pitch he sees, and popping up in the infield. Honestly, all he has to do is just stand there and he would get walked 80% of the time.
Posted: 06:59 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
I dunno, Leo Mazzone did some pretty amazing stuff with Atlanta about 15 years ago. He leaves and they stop winning the division. But to me, there’s too many factors to consider to say this pitching coach has “X” impact on the pitching staff. I’d say that the catcher and the plan he has with the pitcher has more to do with the game by game performance than some “words of wisdom” before the game or during a visit to the mound.
Posted: 07:07 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Atlanta had star pitchers. Do you want to compare RYAN STINKING FRANKLIN , to Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, or Loshe or Pinero to them these two starter were struggling .pinero since 2003 has done nothing until he gets to cards. In my opinion its no comparison
Posted: 07:16 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
it not being a comparison is kind of my point mike.
Posted: 07:58 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Geoff
Well why don’t we ask Lohse? Seriously.
According to Jayson Stark, World Series participants have pitching problems the following year due to the extra month of pitching. This is to be expected.
Posted: 08:23 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Sorry that went over my head .
Posted: 08:29 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 Johnny Snowden
my point should have been that having a “great” pitching coach or not is not indicative of a pitcher’s game to game performance.
Posted: 09:03 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 rob
In the 5.5 seasons prior to the season coming to the Phillies, Lohse had a 4.86 ERA and a 54-62 record. The complete game he tossed this year was only his 7th in this, his 9th, season.
From what I recall, he was asking for a lot of $$ and years from the Phils and when he went on the free agent market, wound up getting a lot less than the Phils offered during the season.
We win the Series in 2008 and Kyle Lohse has the 5th best ERA 4 weeks into the season…I’m happier with the Series.
Posted: 10:02 PM on May 4, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Rob I don’ t care about Loshe, the Question I was raising was how the Cardinals take players like Loshe, Franklin, Pinero and they improve, And how ankiel becomes a good hitting centerfieldr, how a almost thirty year old is the starting power hitting outfielder, how a guy who most thought was career minor leaguer is there starting thirdbasemen[joe thurston] and take a outfielder and make him a second basemen, they two years ago let go of there shortstop who always seem against us to get on base and he goes to another team and can’t start. Is it luck or coaching? To have Franklin who we all saw and turn him around is amazing. we aren’t talking about a young kid with potential who couldn’t put it together and is traded like a floyd, Pinero, franklin Loshe are all over thirty if I am not mistaken
Posted: 08:19 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 rob
I think you are not giving nearly enough credit to the defending champs. We had arguably the best bullpen in the league last year. The Phils scout plenty of talent and get quality production.
I won’t deny that LaRussa is known for trying to maximize every ounce of potential out of his players…and the Cards owners feed off of that. They do a nice job of getting affordable talent. If the Phils tried to pull the same thing with their lineup, they would get ripped for not doing enough to win. Regarding these I could bat behind Pujols and put up some decent numbers…he’s already one of the best players EVER and no one wants to pitch to him.
I think the Phils of old are rubbing off on you…this team has so much talent, much acquired through the draft. Give the coaches and scouts a little more credit.
Posted: 09:34 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
They made an interesting point about Franklin last night… they said the Phillies wanted to make him a reliever because he has “strikeout stuff” .. but he didn’t want to be a reliever.. his problem was that the more guys saw him, the more they hit him.. so in your 2nd or 3rd at-bat, you saw everything he had (how it was moving THAT night)
sometimes a guys movement on a slider or sinker will change from night to night, depending on a slight change in mechanics.. or a tired arm.. or a fresh arm.. etc..
That combined with pitching coach Dave Duncan being notorious for turning pitching careers around..
Posted: 10:13 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 mikemike
Then it’s kind of like what we did with Durbin, Never read or heard anything about us wanting to make Franklin a relief pitcher, that’s insteresting. I give the phillies credit for winning the series, but they have not been a top drafting team, the last two drafts have been better,but the whole outfield is not home grown, third base and three of there starters are from other teams, there catcher was a undrafted filled in who happens to be play good defensive. The bullpen how many of those players did we draft? Lidge , romano,eyre, Tschner, condrey,? If you want to say they draft right drafted in the top of the draft isn’t as hard as finding players in later rounds, howard is a stud find, but utley was the record setting homrun champ at ucla, hamels was hurt and he work out, they didn’t evaluate floyd right, Myers was the fourth pick in the first round, do you think he is a stud, Pat burrell was the top pick in the first round. Point is not counting last two drafts they weren;t doing a great job. When you have to go after 36 year old outfielder,instead of having someone in your system and remember the last outfielder to play from the draft was a converted third basemen,Golston can’t play another bad outfield pick, but the team in the last two drafts has put more money into signing some good prospect, guys like Knapp, worley, stutes, Drabek, Cosart, Taylor, Brown.
Posted: 11:04 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 rob
Landing 3 MVP caliber players and a Cy Young contender, and having them all on the field at the same time speaks for itself. Using picks and prospects for trade to fill in your holes is crucial to a team’s success. No teams are built entirely from their farm.You don’t need me to tell you that when you draft 18 year olds in baseball, only a miniscule percentage get the call up in the first few years. Most will take 5-10 years before they are big league ready.
And while we might signed him for too much, that 36 year old signing is a massive upgrade from the 31 year old we let go to get him. This team is ready to win now and Ibanez only helps them do that.
Posted: 11:19 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 Don M
They won a World Series last year with Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Burrell… Myers, and Madson as homegrown guys.
That’s pretty damn good..
I could care less if we’re the best drafting team ever.. or if we make the best trades ever.. or sign the best players to the cheapest contracts ever..
Whatever can get you the best product ON THE FIELD.. without overpaying.. that is how you become a good franchise.. and right now, we’re one of the best in baseball.. praise should go from the the Front Office.. to the Coaches.. to the Players.. and to the fans.. Also, the Mets Suck
Posted: 11:22 AM on May 5, 2009
Posts: 0 clktwr14
If you guys listened last night on 1210′s pre-game w/ Jim Jackson, Sarge interveiwed the Cardinals play by play guy and he said he felt Lohse’s turn around started here in Philadelphia, so does that say anything for Dubee, gave him the proper tools and Duncan just fine tuned them a little bit, but the Phils finally got to him last night, maybe Dubee showed Milt and Charlie his book on Lohse and they adjusted to beat him.
Posted: 02:23 PM on May 5, 2009