Phillies Nation

another error for the muts!

Happy days. Raul is on FIRE. GO RAUL! Glad Lidge got the save and Hamels pitched a beauty. We’re coming around folks…

Why are the Mets being mentioned? You guys get annoyed for coming on here ,but they are not even here and your bringing them up. Its to early to scoreboard watch. The Phillies need to think about the Phillies. They also need to remember they were World Champions ,but everytime they play good We dont need to here about how they were the 2008 team. This is 2009 and that thinking is part of the problem with the start for the Phillies.

Great ,but that wasnt the main point of my post. To be happy if they loose is cool ,but to post when they have an error, or when they didnt even score just are “threatening” is dumb.

Closely fought win for the Phillies. Hamels is not always going to be dominant but gave us a quality start tonight. Admittedly was nervous watching Lidge again allow runners on base in the 9th but survived by making good pitches when he had to. I’m beginning to think of Lidge as a Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams incarnate. (chuckles)

One note aside and off topic; After coming off the DL, the colorful Dontrelle Willis pitched 6.1 innings of shutout ball for Detroit over Texas. This is his first win in nearly 20 months (his last with Florida in 2007). Amazing comeback after all his problems. A great story for all baseball fans (and maybe a movie?). Welcome back Dontrelle.

I’m neither a Mets or Phillies fan, but looking at this neutrally, it’s pretty obvious neither one of these team’s are very good. In fact, the division is very weak and the fact the Braves are within close striking distance just shows that. A few wins, even against the Nats, could mislead Phillies fans, just like the Mets seven game win streak did. One week it’s the Mets who are hot, the next week it’s the Phillies. The Phillies did what they were supposed to in this game. They could have scored more runs and Cole could have pitched better, but Lidge did his job, even if Willie Taveras proved to be an over anxious guy who doesn’t know that a lead-off hitter should be taking a strike. If he didn’t swing at one pitch, he would have been on first and the next ball would have been a sac fly. The save was big for Lidge, but it didn’t come easy. His workloads are always heavy in these types of situations. When you look at these two teams though, the holes are obvious. The Mets lost Delgado, but, beyond that, even though their pitching has been very good, especially the bullpen, the defense and basic functioning of the team has been horrible. Meanwhile, the Phillies defense has been incredible, yet three of their starter pitcher’s have been totally unreliable. Phillies fans are hyping themselves up for J.A. Happ, meanwhile he’s just replacing the 5 starter and will be thrown at a red hot Yankees team. The only reliable pitcher is Cole, who’s still not fully where he could be at and his health is always in question. Brett’s alright, but not a 2. And Jamie and Blanton are horrendous. The Phillies have also had shoddy bullpen work, both from Lidge and the middle relieving core. You can go only as far as your pitching will take you. This is why I say no World Champion is coming out of this division, as it’s one of the weakest in baseball and probably the weakest in the NL. The Dodgers look strong, even without Manny and will only get better with him back and some new pieces. The NL Central is loaded with a bunch of decent teams that could probably blockade two NL East teams from getting into the postseason, with like 85 wins too. Either way, there’s a reason why there hasn’t been a back-to-back NL World Champion since 1975-76, or even a back-to-back pennant winner since 95-96, from the Braves, who were in a class of their own. There hasn’t even been one NL team who’s made it past the NLDS more than three years straight, nor one team that’s appeared in three consecutive postseasons. So, the competition is pretty leveled. It’s a long season, but the Phillies and Mets appear to both be weak 84-86 win type teams. The Red Sox, or some powerful team is going to take it this year.

Tim, you’re analysis is good but you are ignoring a few points. By no means do I think my analysis is the be-all-end-all of baseball knowledge, but still I think a few things I see are worth mentioning.

At this exact same point last year the Phillies had the exact same 21-16 record yet finished with a 92-70 record. Also, after 35 games last year their longest winning streak was 3 games, this year they have two streaks of 5 games.

While the bullpen has been a little off, after 35 games last year they had lost 5 games. So far this year they have also lost 5 games. No difference there.

After 35 games last year, Hamels was 4-3. This year he is 2-2 but he missed a couple of starts. Not much difference there.

After 35 games last year, the starters had a record of 10-11. This year they have a record of 11-11. Not much difference there.

After 35 games last year, the Phillies had scored 180 runs and given up 163 – a difference of +17. This year the totals stand at 211 and 198 – a difference of +13. Not much difference there.

After 35 games last year, Lidge had 9 saves (albeit with an ERA of 0.00). This year he has 8. I know he’s been a different guy, but that might be turning around now. Nobody stays perfect forever.

On May 9, 2008 (after the Phillies had played 35 games), the standings were:

Florida 21 14 .600 -
Philadelphia 21 16 .568 1.0
New York 17 15 .531 2.5
Atlanta 18 16 .529 2.5
Washington 15 21 .417 6.5

On May 19, 2009, the standings are:

Philadelphia 21 16 .568 -
New York 21 18 .538 1.0
Atlanta 19 19 .500 2.5
Florida 18 21 .462 4.0
Washington 11 27 .289 10.5

The Phillies are in better shape today than they were after 35 games last year.

I think we all know there are problems this year, but there were problems last year as well. Last year Howard wasn’t hitting, Eaton was in the rotation, Kendrick was in the rotation, and Myers wasn’t doing too well. This year Rollins isn’t hitting, Park is (was) in the rotation, Romero is suspended, Moyer is up and down, and Myers is up and down. Things will hopefully work themselves out, but it is waaaaay too premature to write this team off as an 84-86 win team.

Do I think the Phillies will win the Series this year? No, but I didn’t think so last year at this point either – hell, I didn’t think so until they won game 4 against the Dodgers. A lot will happen between now and then. By the end of the year I expect a slightly different bench, a Rollins that is hitting (he’s already started that climb back up), a rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer (who will win 10-12 games), Happ, and either a resurgent Blanton or another arm via trade or promotion from the minors. I expect winning the division will be difficult since the Mets bullpen is better, but I also expect Rodriguez to miss some time due to overuse – and I expect that will be the deciding factor in winning the division.

”At this exact same point last year the Phillies had the exact same 21-16 record yet finished with a 92-70 record. Also, after 35 games last year their longest winning streak was 3 games, this year they have two streaks of 5 games.”

Timrich – Yes, but Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge, the anchors of respective parts of the roster, have looked like two totally different pitcher’s. Recently, Jerry Manuel’s made a comment that I think could be similarly applied to both of them. He said he’s not into being in first place in May, but is more concerned with having a good feel about going into every game. Similarly, even if the Phillies are 21-16 to this point, it’s hard to say they feel good about most of their rotation, their weak bench, Jimmy Rollins or much of their bullpen. The line-up has been incredible, but to expect them to produce at this level is just going to end. As you saw last week when Victorino, Rollins and Utley, and other’s were in a rut, when they couldn’t hit, they were exposed to the Braves and Dodgers. There was a lack of consistency, because during many of those games, the starting pitching actually improved.

”While the bullpen has been a little off, after 35 games last year they had lost 5 games. So far this year they have also lost 5 games. No difference there.”

The ninth inning was more secured than though. It’s not necessarily losses from the bullpen that’ll always show how productive a bullpen is. If the starter is in line for a loss and guy’s like Scott Eyre, Jack Taschner and Chad Durbin are giving up runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings, if the Phillies aren’t able to come back and win the game, that’s not going to show in that statistical category.

”After 35 games last year, Hamels was 4-3. This year he is 2-2 but he missed a couple of starts. Not much difference there.”

The ERA is what’s to be more worried about. The win-loss category is highly overrated. If Santana had a good bullpen last season, he probably ends up with 20-21 wins, which give a different vibe than winning the same amount of games as Jamie Moyer, who was good, but not anywhere near the Cy Young running. It’s all about if a pitcher, like Cole, or who ever it is, can keep his team in the game. Recently, Hamels has improved there.

”After 35 games last year, the Phillies had scored 180 runs and given up 163 – a difference of +17. This year the totals stand at 211 and 198 – a difference of +13. Not much difference there.”

That’s true, but that right there is probably the most blatant statistical observation that shows you how much the Phillies offense has improved (even with Rollins slump) and how much the pitching has regressed. Unfortunately though, what’s unusually up is much more likely to come down, than what’s down to dramatically go up. In other words, I doubt most people would have anticipated this offensive production from the Phillies, but most expect it to go down. It’ll still be one of the most productive in baseball though. When you’re in a deep hole though, it’s harder to dig yourself out of it. The fact the Phillies are in a hitter’s park will make it even harder for the their staff to work out of this. Right now, the Phillies are like a better version of teams the Texas Rangers have put out there throughout the decade. They can field. They can hit the crap out of the ball. They have a few good relievers. They got a good ace and alright starter in Myers, but 1/4 through the way in the season, the rest is a crap shoot. The Rangers couldn’t field at this level, nor did they have an anchor, or at least a few quality relievers, throughout the decade, which is why they always finished below. The Rockies used to try to play similar ball. It just doesn’t work. I do think some the Phillies will get better though, like Brad, but it’s just amount of how long it’ll take.

”After 35 games last year, Lidge had 9 saves (albeit with an ERA of 0.00). This year he has 8. I know he’s been a different guy, but that might be turning around now. Nobody stays perfect forever.”

Yeah, but most don’t go to that either. The problem is, winning a world series relied on him being dominative. Even if he can be an alright closer, is that really good enough to win another NL East title and World Series? Besides the production though, I think health could be the real issue there, but that kind of works hand in hand.

”I think we all know there are problems this year, but there were problems last year as well. Last year Howard wasn’t hitting, Eaton was in the rotation, Kendrick was in the rotation, and Myers wasn’t doing too well. This year Rollins isn’t hitting, Park is (was) in the rotation, Romero is suspended, Moyer is up and down, and Myers is up and down. Things will hopefully work themselves out, but it is waaaaay too premature to write this team off as an 84-86 win team.”

Myers has been a lot more up than Moyer has. He’s still averaged 6 1/3 IP and a 4.50 ERA in his first 8 starts of the season. It’s pretty mediocre. On the other hand, Moyer’s getting lit up in nearly every start and has to be in real danger of losing his spot in the rotation, or should be at least, with an 8.15 ERA. Similarly, Blanton’s 6.86 ERA has been ugly too. Both Blanton and Moyer actually look decent for a couple innings, whether it’s to start or end, but there’s usually that one or two innings where they lose all of it. A big reason why the Phillies won the WS last season though was Moyer’s production. Moyer made the same amount of starts in ’07 and ’08, and only threw 3 more IP in ’08, and only won 2 more games, but averaged 1.30 less run per game last season. He helped keep the Phillies in a lot more ball games. Besides Lidge, he’s probably been the next most ”about face” guy on the roster. It’s probably too early to make any season ending predictions for any team with a similar record to the Phillies yet, but this is just a hunch, based on a mix of what we’ve seen to this point and anticipation of health statuses, particularly in Lidge and Cole.

”Do I think the Phillies will win the Series this year? No, but I didn’t think so last year at this point either – hell, I didn’t think so until they won game 4 against the Dodgers. A lot will happen between now and then. By the end of the year I expect a slightly different bench, a Rollins that is hitting (he’s already started that climb back up), a rotation of Hamels, Myers, Moyer (who will win 10-12 games), Happ, and either a resurgent Blanton or another arm via trade or promotion from the minors. I expect winning the division will be difficult since the Mets bullpen is better, but I also expect Rodriguez to miss some time due to overuse – and I expect that will be the deciding factor in winning the division.”

Another thing, while Jimmy is improving, it’s very easy for him to revert back. I think he’ll improve, but he’ll probably never get anywhere near where he was at in ’07. As hard as it may be for some to accept, it’s possible, and only natural to suspect, that he may have used steroids, during that one uncharacteristically statistical season. It’s probably reasonable to think he could get back to where he was at last season, or slightly less though. I respect your honesty though, because if I were a Phillies fan, I would have been pleasantly surprised too. In a way, it had to have been more refreshing, not expecting it. A lot of teams will give that extra effort against the Phillies though, just like any defending World Champion. I’m not sure if Moyer can win 10-12 games, without a large amount of run support or a big turn around. They’ll stay more committed to him, than Blanton, because of his contract, but it’s hard to imagine him being more than a back-end of the rotation guy, at best. With Happ, it’s hard to know what they’ll get. The guy’s more seasoned now, but he might struggle and who knows if they’ll have the patience to keep sending him out there. Right now, the Mets got 3 good reliable starters, Santana, Pelfrey and Maine. Perez is out in his own world. Livan and Redding appear to be slightly below average back-end of the rotation guy’s, but they may eventually try upgrading that. They’re innings eater’s who’s ERA’s will be in the 5′s. With the Phillies, they only got two reliable pitcher’s, Cole and Brett, who’ve pitched similarly to Pelfrey and Maine, which is why they got the same numbers. Maybe Cole will take it up a notch, but Santana really is the extra thing the Mets have. Throughout his career, Blanton’s really always been a slightly better version of the current Livan Hernandez or last season’s Tim Redding, so I don’t think they’re much different.

I don’t think the Mets will overuse K-Rod to the point he’ll have to miss time. They’ve done a better job finding days off for him than they have for Putz, Parnell and Feliciano. I think Putz could be the issue there though. A big factor in this division will be the head-to-head play. Since the Phillies really beat the crap out of the Mets in ’07, the Mets have had the Phillies number and play intense every game, in both New York and Philly. If Jerry Manuel weren’t stupid enough to put Green in that game, or take him out, the Mets may be 4-0 right now against them In my opinion though, what’ll decide this difference most are the player’s these two teams acquire between now and the trade deadline. The Mets have more payroll to use, being in a larger market, generating a comparable, if not larger revenue, with the new stadium, in comparison to the world series merchandise. Both team’s have similar prospects. I don’t think the Mets will part with Fernando Martinez, nor will the Phillies in Carrasco, but the Mets might be pressed to move Jon Niese. With the public scrutiny that’s starting to build there, they may be more pressed to making trades. They’ll probably start out with a guy like Nick Johnson, maybe even by next week, who the Nats probably just want to dump a salary of. He’s a very good defensive 1B, and a good patient hitter, who could replace Delgado, for the time being. They might go for Aubrey Huff too. Right now, if the Mets don’t got Delgado longer than late August and don’t make an upgrade, the Phillies do appear stronger. The Mets may try to be creative in how they replace Delgado’s production though. Being that it’s a pitcher’s park, it may make more sense trading for a front-line pitcher, like Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee or Roy Oswalt.

AHHHH! WALLS OF TEXT! *FLEE*

I was flipping around on the televion and they show highlights from marlins game. The whole outfield was empty, when the phillies played the senators the same, I really think they have water down the talent by expansion. I would love to see them elimate some teams. like them marlins who can’t draw , washington, pittsburg, don’t see much american league but how does kc draw? They need to elimated at least two teams .

Man Tim I think you need to find something to do, I usually leave long posts but not ones that go on for a week. Some of your points are valid, but the one thing you are missing is not many teams that win the world series are exactly the same in September as they are in May.
You can talk about starting pitching, last year 2 of our 5 starters where Kendrick and Eaton if i remember correctly. Then Myers was sent down came back and pitched great, what is to say he can have a similar second half, and Blanton, who was 10-0 was acquired really late last year. Hammels era is slightly high because of he’s first two games, gave up 7 runs in 5 innings I think in the first start, and 5 in 5 in the second I think. And he was not ready to pitch. Matt Stairs was not on our bench, so this team has shown that it can fill spots it needs throughout the year.
A point about last night, I finally watched it on my DVR, and I am sorry but those first two pitches to guy Lidge walk after the error on JRoll(official score was a hit, but that is play he makes 90% of the time, got a glove on in it was an error) where strikes, so I think Lidges performance was better then the numbers show. And he got the save which is big for his pysci(spelled wrong)
Other than Lidge I don’t think you can call our bull pen shaky, in spots maybed but overall the overworked mid relief guys have been pitching well

I’m not one to usually make comments about the other contributors, but Tim (not our illustrious blogger, Tim Malcolm), you need to get a life. It’s 4AM and you’re babbling and rambling on and on and on…oh, and on. It is better to keep your mouth shut and leave them wondering about your intelligence than to open it and remove all doubt.

If the above “posters” would please keep there posts to under 13,000 words next time, that would be great. Thanks!!

I didn’t even think about reading any of that.. maybe it was good too.. its a shame

Wow, I used to stay up all night and talk a mile a minute, but usually with some pharmaceutical help. Before I got bored reading, It seemed like Tim had some good points, though.

I wonder about those few who criticize the length of posts by Tim, Rube and Tim Rich on this thread. Is it their attention span, lack of time or plain impatience? I can see if the text of those lenghty posts had little relevance, uninformed or incoherent. However, I took the time to read the posts and found many interesting and valid points in their debates. And while their posts could use some editing to eliminate excessive belaboring of points made, it nevertheless was good reading.

I cant read when people never use punctuation, or never make any breaks in a sentence/paragraph.

It doesn’t even need to be correct punctuation, but Im not going to read a 4000 word sentence..

If one post is longer than the length of my computer screen, I usually skip it

Re comment way above about it being too early to scoreboard watch and root against our rivals — gotta disagree. Mets losses in May count the same as in September. Where’s my Mr. Met voodoo doll?

phillies fan pf.i dont catre if you were posting on here in a convorsation, because you posted it on a blog A$$hole. Where anyone can come one and comment,so get over that. And as far as your dumb, You can post everyday on here and still be a retard.

Why do you have to be like that? Not nice to use terms like “retard”

The point I was trying to make is when somebody writes a books-worth of their opinion at one time.. not many people are going to read it.

Somebody said that the one guy’s posts were 4,000 words..

People are aloud to whatever, but I think a bunch of us at the same time thought 4,000 words or whatever was too long, and has little chance of getting any response, since it has little chance of getting read

betasigmashag – If you don’t like what I have to say, you don’t have to read it. Perhaps if I spoke in a more optimistically about the Phillies, you wouldn’t come off that way. Unfortunately, I’m not someone who can be overwhelmed by one recent 5 game win streak, 4 against the Nats, to justify that a team is making a turn around and has a very good chance at another title. A chance? Yes. But, I don’t know if I’d call it a good chance for anyone in this division. What’s to say Myers can’t have a similar second half? It’s not impossible, but I’m basing it off of probability. He doesn’t have as much to prove, or an unstable spot in the rotation either. I highly doubt Blanton will get back to that 10-0 type form. He was great at the end of last season. When the whole team is grooving, it lingers on and did on Joe. However, the other pitchers struggles has on him this year. You’re probably right that Cole shouldn’t have pitched, and it was irresponsible to throw him out there, but Cole’s a more long term concern. By August or September, who knows what his elbow will look like. I wouldn’t deny that he’ll probably improve from where he’s at though.

The problem with Lidge, is walks. I’m not discrediting Willie Taveras, but he helped him get through it. A lead-off hitter is supposed to take pitches. I watched the game too. After taking ball one, he swung at strikes two and three. A lead-off hitter’s job is to take strike. It should be anyone’s after he just walked a batter and has struggled lately. The play with Rollins was not an error. He may have not thrown him out. But, if he fielded it cleanly, he would have had a decent shot to get him. The middle reliever’s haven’t been horrible, but could be better. Condrey’s been very good, but Durbin has. He gave up those two runs to LA last week. His 4+ ERA, up over a run from last season, speaks for itself. Taschner’s been alright, but when Romero replaces him, that’ll help. Taking J.A. Happ out of the pen won’t help there, but putting Chan Ho Park there may be a lot worse. Although he’s been better lately, Eyre’s struggled too and typically does when he’s used too frequently. Basically, their middle reliever’s, Condrey aside, have been mediocre, which is a big downgrade from last season.

”I don’t think I’ve ever seen a comment blast where each response is longer than the next.”

Sawaob12 – So that’s what you get up at 9 in the morning to talk about?

”I’m not one to usually make comments about the other contributors, but Tim (not our illustrious blogger, Tim Malcolm), you need to get a life. ”

Dougd – I could see why you’re not one to usually make those comments. Who exactly are you ? Like I said to the other guy, if I were making some typical pampering simpleton comment, you’d probably like it a lot more. It’s okay though. I’m sorry I couldn’t please the ”illustrious” population of random bloggers in the morning.

”It is better to keep your mouth shut and leave them wondering about your intelligence than to open it and remove all doubt.”

Dougd – You know what’s funny about your post? Unlike the other guys, who took a shot, they actually talked about baseball. Could you tell me anything about your post that involves the game, the Phillies or even a sport period? Was the purpose of your entire post to attempt to insult someone you’ve never seen before? It must suck, because you couldn’t even do that successfully. You posted at 9:21 AM. Shouldn’t you be working on a Wednesday morning? If you’re not going to work or do something useful, get more sleep, so you don’t wake up a cranky malcontent the next time.

”In my case it is time management. Sorry, I am working on a post graduate degree and I teach college and have enough to read without coming on one of my favorite sites to read more than my students’ papers.”

Phils Phan SC – I could understand that. It’s a shame most of the other’s can’t take off your respectful response.

”It’s just the fact that he doesn’t separate anything at all, or use punctuation, so it’s a strain on the eyes.”

King – If I write on here again, I’ll do a better job. I did use punctuation though. I admit I wasn’t perfect. It’s not a college term paper. You can’t honestly tell me other’s on here have exactly written with great punctuation either though.

”phillies fan pf.i dont catre if you were posting on here in a convorsation, because you posted it on a blog A$$hole. Where anyone can come one and comment,so get over that. And as far as your dumb, You can post everyday on here and still be a retard.”

King – Read baseballfan’s quote. This is the pretty much what I just summarized. Has like twenty people taken exception to an unintelligent vulgar post that lacks even the simplest grammatical skills? No. You know why? Because people don’t respect that post. You know there’s nothing worth reading about, there’s nothing worth responding about it. It’s sad that people get more critical about the guy who actually talks about baseball and the Phillies, rather than a clueless moron who takes jabs at others.

Wow, Tim, you are taking our comments about your comments much too seriously, lighten up! If we all promise to be nice to you will you forgive us? You’ve got to develop a thicker skin to post on here, really, I didn’t think any of the comments were that bad, not compared to some I’ve seen.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone respond to each comment individually though, nice touch.

”My point was this is not the team you are going to see in August/September/October, they proved last year they can get guys they need.”

Shag – Well, you’re assuming they’ll be a deep October there, which may getting ahead of yourself. One thing Phillies fans shouldn’t take for granted is winning. Too many people are forgetting the lose losing history. They act as if this has a team that’s won for a while. I’m not saying they aren’t capable of improving and getting back there, but it’s not going to be easy. I don’t think the question is whether the fight is there or not. The question is, mainly with the pitching, is the talent there? Over the next couple months, they’ll learn more about the reliability of Happ, Moyer, Blanton and Lidge. Also, while the Phillies will likely improve from a mediocre start, the Mets may very well too. The two team’s will continue to butt heads all year long and the Wild Card as a consolation is not a given to neither.